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Economy => Gambling discussion => Topic started by: MarvelousAQL on March 02, 2017, 10:38:03 AM



Title: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: MarvelousAQL on March 02, 2017, 10:38:03 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Hatcher on March 02, 2017, 10:40:46 AM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Ayers on March 02, 2017, 10:42:59 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

it work that unless they have 0 edge in percentage, the odds are aginst you, basically instead of being 50%/50% it's 49%/51% for them, therefore if you do 100 bet, they win 51 of them and you win only 49, every 100 bet you lose 1, in the end you are losing, but you can be lucky of course


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: moooonu on March 02, 2017, 11:17:08 AM
Its call probability. If you are using any dice site you will get any number between 00.00 to 99.99. So any number can come including those too while you are rolling. Rolling at 50% chance means you get 50/50 chance to get above or below like head and tail in a coin. The real math starts here with probability, you can get more than 23( as much i have seen with my eyes) heads in a row. So i suggest you to limit your lose and start over again when it reaches the max lose you set.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: machinek20 on March 02, 2017, 12:39:18 PM
Yes you will fail, most of the gambler already try that method and they were failed, they lost more than 20 times in a row, there are no strategy will work for long run you can count the probability by yourself, you will see that that there is always losing percentage in a long run


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: AdolfinWolf on March 02, 2017, 12:47:54 PM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Not true, martingale can work very well in theory, if you have almost unlimited amounts of money, this way the changes of losing are ludicrously low.

I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

it work that unless they have 0 edge in percentage, the odds are aginst you, basically instead of being 50%/50% it's 49%/51% for them, therefore if you do 100 bet, they win 51 of them and you win only 49, every 100 bet you lose 1, in the end you are losing, but you can be lucky of course

And thats why it is such a dumb idea to play a game with no skill required, but pure luck. You're always going to end up losing.


OP you can probably make are 10% profit without any huge risks using martingale, however this is ofcourse theoretically seen.

I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

Quote
Yes, but the "ball" or "computer" does not remember where it was the last time. Everytime it rolls it has a 50% change of coming on either red or black. Therefore your changes are; E ≈ ½ N x B
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/1407772/calculating-the-probability-to-win-with-martingale-in-roulette

See this post to calculate how much change you have of losing with your 50mBTC. (if you want to make for example 30% profit..)


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: LuanX3 on March 02, 2017, 01:01:48 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

Basically you're using a martingale system which is a shit system that has not made anyone rich! The game is fair, depending on where you play. Fair or not it will fail! There is no gambling trick, system or method that will win in the end. Gamblers are more likely to lose than win in gambling, that is the fact of the matter. So if you are gambling, just play it and enjoy. Don't use a system.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: AjithBtc on March 02, 2017, 01:35:33 PM
Better try to take part into gambling events and gain experience which gives easily makes you learn all the do's and don't in gambling. Without failure you cannot be successful or make earning from gambling.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Raimonn on March 02, 2017, 01:40:06 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

The game could be fair and you can loose more than 20 times (it seems impossible, but reality is yes). On large runs you will loose all your money using this martingale system.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: jacee on March 02, 2017, 01:42:24 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Afaik that strategy that you will increase bet by 100% on loss is mirtangle. Some people say that this works to them but from my personal experience it didn't. Eventually you will hit a loosing streak and with the said set up it will be a ver risky move because if you did hit a loosing streak you'll just loose all yoir money eventually.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: michkima on March 02, 2017, 03:23:03 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Afaik that strategy that you will increase bet by 100% on loss is mirtangle. Some people say that this works to them but from my personal experience it didn't. Eventually you will hit a loosing streak and with the said set up it will be a ver risky move because if you did hit a loosing streak you'll just loose all yoir money eventually.

I would attest to this too that it doesn't work! There would be a chance that you will create a losing streak of more than your bankroll can handle and in the end you will not be able to sustain the system. Martingale system is profitable, but only assuming you have infinite bankroll that will be used to cover for long losing streaks.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Frosxh on March 02, 2017, 03:53:29 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

the strategy you are using is called Martingale, most gamblers already know that strategy and most of us already killed by the long red streak (some users got 20+ red streak based on their posts that i've read in the past) so if you don't want to risk your 50mbtc just to earn a satoshi per bet then don't do that strategy


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Hatcher on March 02, 2017, 11:13:57 PM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Not true, martingale can work very well in theory, if you have almost unlimited amounts of money, this way the changes of losing are ludicrously low.

"Almost unlimited amounts of money" will still prove it to be a fail. The premise of "not getting fair odds" has not changed. The risk of finding a busting sequence will always be greater than the reward you are targeting in a -EV game.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: michkima on March 03, 2017, 01:50:42 AM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Not true, martingale can work very well in theory, if you have almost unlimited amounts of money, this way the changes of losing are ludicrously low.

"Almost unlimited amounts of money" will still prove it to be a fail. The premise of "not getting fair odds" has not changed. The risk of finding a busting sequence will always be greater than the reward you are targeting in a -EV game.

True, you need "unlimited amount of money" to get a martingale system to work and that is practically impossible for anyone too. Another issue will always be the maximum bet. Regardless if you have unlimited money, you still cannot go over the maximum bet amount. Which means if you have the longest losing streak in history and you have unlimited money, you cannot bet beyond the maximum hence destroying your system.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: torry28 on March 03, 2017, 03:39:40 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
I guess you are going to betting on dice?
50mBTC or 0.05BTC with base bet 0.00001mBTC or 0.00000001BTC you only can handle 22 straight loses in a row, which we know it is not safe since there are many people said had more than that.  You will fail OP;)


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: hatshepsut93 on March 03, 2017, 04:16:31 AM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Not true, martingale can work very well in theory, if you have almost unlimited amounts of money, this way the changes of losing are ludicrously low.


This is quite an interesting point, there's a Gambler's Ruin theorem, which says that whoever has bigger bankroll is more likely to win, so if you have much more money than casino, you could theoretically win all their bankroll. Sounds good, right? Well, casino operators are not stupid, they understand that high bets can be dangerous to them, so they always set a limit for a maximum win per 1 bet, usually it's 1-2% of the bankroll. So martingale can't work, because you can't increase your bets indefinitely, and at some point you will not be allowed to double your bet to recover from a loss.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: uneng on March 03, 2017, 04:42:52 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

Doing this you will lose all your money sooner or later, you can take a long loss streak and it's over...
You need a strategy to play well. Try to don't use all your money trying to recover what you lost, don't play x2 payout all the time, alternate it to another payouts and customize your game, and very important, don't be greedy, take your profit and go away...


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: milewilda on March 03, 2017, 05:24:43 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Hmm seeing you are planning to play on dice since you are doing martingale method and seeing on the bankroll you have and basing on the basebet you will surely bust up or burn all your bankroll when losing streak would hit you 20+ would do or even 15x straight lose.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Natalim on March 03, 2017, 08:21:40 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Martingale system does not guarantee a win, think of this, if that is very effective then we are all exploiting casinos for profit. Your luck will only determine if you can win or not, and having a cold losing streak of 20 times in a row is very unlucky but it's possible to happen.
Good thing you ask our opinion here and I hope you understand all possibilities, and lastly, if you can afford your bet then go.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: xSkylarx on March 03, 2017, 09:49:00 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

The amount of your bet is not connected at your winnings, or betting big amount can not assure you that you are going to win. The percentage of your winning depends on the House Edge of the gambling site that where you are playing, of course the higher House Edge, the low chance of winning, and the lower House Edge, the higher chance of winning.  So, if you lose on a gambling site most of the time, then don't complain because it is Gambling, which losing most of the time is just normal.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: BlockEye on March 03, 2017, 10:31:40 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Hmm seeing you are planning to play on dice since you are doing martingale method and seeing on the bankroll you have and basing on the basebet you will surely bust up or burn all your bankroll when losing streak would hit you 20+ would do or even 15x straight lose.

Martingle weakness is using low base bet and using it for long period of time. He will obviously loss at the end of the long run because he was trying to gamble for long period of time just by seeing his base bet set up and bank roll. If i were him. I will just buy that 50mbtc a slice of pizza. Hahaha


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Ayers on March 03, 2017, 10:54:29 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?
Don't do that, you will lose your money.

it work that unless they have 0 edge in percentage, the odds are aginst you, basically instead of being 50%/50% it's 49%/51% for them, therefore if you do 100 bet, they win 51 of them and you win only 49, every 100 bet you lose 1, in the end you are losing, but you can be lucky of course
0% house edge doesn't mean you will not face 25 or higher loss streak. Toss coin for free 100000 times and you will see house edge doesn't have anything to do with it.




i know, i'm not saying that, i'm saying that without house edge, you would eventually even out the bet because ratio between loss and win are fair, but with house edge, you will lose in the long run this is guaranteed


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Pettuh4 on March 03, 2017, 11:10:55 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

You'll need a good research and analysis of the game in order to stand a chance against the house edge because a any odd offering a 100% return (2.0odd) is difficult to beat and so the house might end up winning so chances can't be calculated by just a mere eye observation but an understanding of the game.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: mOgliE on March 03, 2017, 11:20:51 AM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

You would have to lose more than 20 times yes.

But you will. Eventually you will.
Don't think that it is "impossible" to lose 30 times in a row, it is PERFECTLY possible, it happenned and it will happen.
Problem is that even if the odds are very small, what you win after each bet is also very small ;)


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: shintosai on March 03, 2017, 12:01:02 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

You would have to lose more than 20 times yes.

But you will. Eventually you will.
Don't think that it is "impossible" to lose 30 times in a row, it is PERFECTLY possible, it happenned and it will happen.
Problem is that even if the odds are very small, what you win after each bet is also very small ;)
sincerely yes losing streak is always possible in any event mate, its very disappointing considering that you already do some mathematical analysis and considering the numbers of possible loses against the winning bets but surely things happen and we can't control if how many loses will be possible for such event, martingale is useless in a long run.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: joshy23 on March 03, 2017, 04:35:22 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

You would have to lose more than 20 times yes.

But you will. Eventually you will.
Don't think that it is "impossible" to lose 30 times in a row, it is PERFECTLY possible, it happenned and it will happen.
Problem is that even if the odds are very small, what you win after each bet is also very small ;)
sincerely yes losing streak is always possible in any event mate, its very disappointing considering that you already do some mathematical analysis and considering the numbers of possible loses against the winning bets but surely things happen and we can't control if how many loses will be possible for such event, martingale is useless in a long run.

Eventually it will caught you in the end and you will lose. However, I don't know what you percentage you put, 50-80% chances for winning? I think its a safe bet but we all know that its base on luck so I'm saying YES, you will lose in the end.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: thejaytiesto on March 03, 2017, 04:44:40 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

Math and statistics are always against you in the world of casinos and gambling in general, unless you know for a fact that odds are in your side, but casinos usually make profit by always having an edge.

What I mean is, you always need luck to break even, luck is the x factor.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: wizmo on March 03, 2017, 04:48:46 PM
Yes still you can loose your bits if you play continuesly gambling is all about when to play and when to stop.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: peter0425 on March 03, 2017, 05:10:13 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

Yes failing 20 times is possible. And if you put in on auto-bet, you will not notice it that you on the losing streak. I think I know what your strategy here, I'm been there and initially I have success but then I didn't notice that I'm in the losing streak, then eventually lose it all. I suggest it you are doing this, you have to manually bet so you can control how much you are betting and not lose it.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Mike Mayor on March 04, 2017, 10:28:09 PM
If you bet such a small amount you will only make that small amount each time and will be rolling thousands of times so gettinbv 20x dice rolls wrong in a row becomes more and more likely as you play. With that many rolls 20x fails will come its only a matter of time. The highest you can get is what 50% - the house edge is. No matter how tou devide a piece of pie you still only have one pie.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: harizen on March 04, 2017, 10:34:47 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

More than 20 times losing is possible for any gambling dice site even how fair it is. It's just a few numbers compare to the whole. Of course that is not consecutive losses but it will be majority of your bet result is loss. That's why you can see some winning percentage there (if applicable). If you see some 100% winning rate then that is the sure one but it's out of the context.

And besides, in some dice sites, you can verify the bet of yours to see if that is fair or not. You might want to try it.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: SportbetMaster on March 04, 2017, 11:15:01 PM
provably fairy ok
house edge 1% ? do you believe ? yes but, how does it work?
X roll
100mbtc x 1 roll= 1%
100 mbtc x 100 roll = 100%
the house edge =  1% x X = X%
enjoy you gambling and do not  forget to  - Never gamble,what you can't afford to lose - .


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: Nekutasa on March 04, 2017, 11:16:36 PM
You can fail more than 20 times and it's happened before!! It's called martingale and many people use it but unfortunately it's not the best way of making money


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: pixie85 on March 04, 2017, 11:43:48 PM
The way gambling works is that those offering the games don't pay out fair odds when you win. This is called a house edge and no betting strategies can beat it. So yes, you will fail.


Not true, martingale can work very well in theory, if you have almost unlimited amounts of money, this way the changes of losing are ludicrously low.

"Almost unlimited amounts of money" will still prove it to be a fail. The premise of "not getting fair odds" has not changed. The risk of finding a busting sequence will always be greater than the reward you are targeting in a -EV game.

True, you need "unlimited amount of money" to get a martingale system to work and that is practically impossible for anyone too. Another issue will always be the maximum bet. Regardless if you have unlimited money, you still cannot go over the maximum bet amount. Which means if you have the longest losing streak in history and you have unlimited money, you cannot bet beyond the maximum hence destroying your system.
You can also bet really small. This will cause you to win very little but also increase your margin of error.
If you bet 0.001 only 10 losses in a row will force you to bet over 1BTC and this is stepping into some serious gambling. To be safe you'd need to start much lower, like 0.00001, which after 10 losses in a row would lead to betting 0.01 and another 7 losses to pass 1BTC.
This still doesn't make the method safe! Most people will run out of money after 17 -18 losses in a row.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: cengsuwuei on March 04, 2017, 11:48:52 PM
I've got 50mB; and i betting at 0.00001mB increase bet by 100% on loss. If someone can explain to me how i will lose and how gambling actually works then please explain further. Because betting at such a low value i would have to fail more than 20times right? So is the game really fair or how does it work?

if you want martiangle use 100% every lost
youre must calculation about odds, without calculation only incraese 100% every lost you can very fast lost all money
minimum if you martiangle use 100%, you must use odds 2x and above
but if not recomended if martiangle use 100%, because is vey fast lost,


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: xuan87 on March 05, 2017, 12:44:30 AM
Yes you will fail, a lot of gambler already suffered big lost from martingale technique, you still need to consider the house edge before using martingale technique, to win using martingale is to know when to stop, so if you want to earn profit with martingale you need to used it for short term, in long term you will be busted, but the chance for winning in gambling is really small, so if you are ready to lose your money then go gambling, if not then you better keep your money


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: sulendra12 on March 05, 2017, 12:57:35 AM
That's called a Martingale Strategy. Martingale strategy isn't a bad idea to do because few of gamblers can win the jackpot from this strategy, because they can manage their gameplay or their luck is good on that day. Martingale strategy works for short game but not for a long one so keep your eyes open.


Title: Re: Will i fail the bet?
Post by: ufaiz50 on March 05, 2017, 02:37:33 AM
likely you will fail and it was quite a waste of your time if the wager 0.00001mB every round, not a lot of people who earn profits with your way  (martingale strategy) and the strategy was not for a long time because of the possibility of unfair