Bitcoin Forum

So what we have now is a situation where a dip is expected if X event happens, and a price rally or even massive pump if X event happens...

We only know some odds, which ultimately are not reliable as we have seen in the past with brexit and trump events with odds against those events.

So it's a gamble: ETF or no ETF? sell and buy back cheaper, or hold and see your BTC go $3000?

I have no idea, it all comes down to luck, so good luck to you (and to me)

it is not a gamble! that is the strangest conclusion that i have see anyone make of this situation.
it is a news and it has an effect on the market and people react to it. and this has nothing to do with gambling!
you can even predict these things. when market is filled with so many idiot newbies who react with fear they buy when people talk about ETF without knowing why and will sell when people stop talking about ETF without knowing why again.
and in the meanwhile those newbies say it is random while whales and other experience traders make profit.

Traders expectations on what will happen after news like what is about to happen that is ETF getting approval by sec is what drives assets market like bitcoin and forex. It is not a gambling but forecast! What traders will do is to just hearing what will happen either approved or not approved and market will take it direction. We are all waiting for bitcoin to pump up to $3000😊

Best thing right now could be selling half of your bitcoin and hold some fiat so you can either buy if ETF doesn't get approved by SEC or sell half if price get pumped after ETF approval. In situation like this just don't hold to many alts because for every small pump in bitcoin price, alts experiences a big dump.

The chances of approval are really slim at the moment but still the market is having high hopes that it will be executed and so is the reason the price of bitcoin has broken record levels in the past few weeks and if at all if ETF is approved it is rumored that more than 100 millions will be pumped into bitcoin in the first week and that could blow the charts for sure.Lets see how the decision will be.

Those that buy the rumor are in fact gambling. There is no other way to name it since you only depend on luck. But those that have positions in Bitcoin regardless of whatever happening, these people aren't gambling. They will just use an approved ETF in their benefit if the situation allows it. If there is no real market effect, then nothing is lost since they will hold their coins anyway.

Gamble on the ETF decision, and a lot of FOMO bitcoin. make the price it looks like get a delusional pump. So we are on the FataMorgana of SEC approval.

Do you wanna selling some of your bitcoin at the top price before SEC decision?

yep. this is the plainest gamble of recent times. what i find really weird is so many people having already decided their position and what they're gonna do. whatever happens there's gonna be alot of happy and sad people in a few days.

personally i'd prefer to be riding overall trends if i was trading, not a split second happening.

Pffft.  All derivatives are gambling methods,  and that's exactly what the ETF is.  Derivatives may be fully endorsed by the wall street crowd, but it's all betting and it's all gambling.

haha, it was a funny conclusion.
what you are explaining is called speculation not gambling. you see the news and events that are going on around the world and speculate about their effects on price of something.

for example a couple of years ago flood in Thailand which is the main place of producing Hard Drives caused a shortage of HDDs and because of low supply the prices skyrocketed.
you can call this price rise a gamble if you like but it is very simple cause and effect based on supply and demand.

in case of ETF, the approval can cause more publicity in the long run and more people seeing bitcoin as an investment so the price can rise more than it normally does.
also the disapproval doesn't change anything at all. bitcoin will remain the same as it was before so it will rise the same as before but temporarily there will be some FUD and some weak hands sell and cause some small dips.
again you can call this a gamble if you like but that doesn't change the fact that it can be predicted easily! and very logically.

I agree on what you have said this is just a plain gamble and people are already making up possible moves when an event comes specially on bitcoin. People do really love to put meaning on a certain thing and speaking on trading its really like gambling itself since choices arent still sure.

what are you talking about? not being sure doesn't mean it is a gamble! some things are sure. for example the fact that bitcoin price will rise in the long run. and yes some things you can not predict like whether you will be hit by lightning if you go out of house today but it doesn't mean you are gambling when you go out of the house! and the same thing is true about trading specially trading things such as bitcoin which has a pretty solid history and a very solid market.

This is just speculation and can't be considered as gambling IMHO. Because you are just anticipating the future price of bitcoin once the ETF is approve or not by SEC.


So we are all speculators here because we are trying to forecast based on our own experience, of the situation

Edit:

Speculation
Speculation involves calculating risk and conducting research before entering a financial transaction. A speculator buys or sells assets in hopes of having a bigger potential gain than the amount he risks. A speculator takes risks and knows that the more risk he assumes, in theory, the higher his potential gain. However, he also knows that he may lose more than his potential gain.


Gambling
Converse to speculation, gambling involves a game of chance. Generally, the odds are stacked against gamblers. When gambling, the probability of losing an investment is usually higher than the probability of winning more than the investment. In comparison to speculation, gambling has a high risk of losing the investment.

Reference:
Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042715/what-difference-between-speculation-and-gambling.asp  (http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042715/what-difference-between-speculation-and-gambling.asp)

well, investing in ETF is a definitely a gamble. Price can go up and down by 50% everyday due to speculators.

Exactly. But I see it more as betting and less as gambling, I would say. All we like fast and good profit; right? But profit always is risky. Always in trading the events, the information, most times the rumors, the speculation and the 'feeling' are the friends/enemies of a trader. So according your psychology and the very basic rule 'Risk Only What You Can Afford to Lose' there are only 3 cases: keep all your coins or sell all of them and pray or if you are a more conservative one like me keep some of them and sell the rest. How many you will sell? This is your estimation. But you need to hurry. The 13th March is close enough.

it depends on what you do with this information. we know there is ETF and we can guess the effect of it going either of two ways. if you are going to gamble now whether it is approved or rejected and act accordingly then it is gamble.
but if you are waiting to see the result first then act based on the actual result then it is not gamble it is logical trading :)

I think we are making a mistake thinking that we see some major price decline after negative SEC's decision.
It is not that we would be surprised by another denial. Isn't that what we are expecting to happen?

We can say that every unknown outcome is gambling, and we will see some effect it will have on the price.
But  for people who lived through ATH in 2013 and then when bitcoin dropped to $200 in 2015 - this small turbulence is nothing.

ETF approval or not will not directly affect the bitcoin price "literally".

The price will move based on the traders speculation about what is the expected thing to happen whatever what happens to the ETF thing. It's like the other events in the past like halving, brexit and trump thing as you mentioned etc.

Also, others are just waiting for the trend that ETF thing will bring whether if it can build a speculation of price increase or price decrease. Let's now wait.

I'm hodling. No point in selling at the biggest point in bitcoin's short history. The sky is the limit for the price when the ETF is passed.

Yeah it is a gamble to me right now but I am betting on both. I already have set up half of my funds for trading in fiat and the other half on bitcoin. But I think some are already cashing out their profit that is why there is currently some dumps that is pulling the price down. I do not know if the price will still go higher before the ETF Decision.

Still, you are getting ready based on the analyzes you come across but you are calling it gambling. Maybe using the term betting would be more appropriate than gambling. I do see sports betting is very much equivalent to trading.

In trading we are betting against prices of one commodity whereas in betting they do trade against one person or one teams' capability.

Trading against the speculations of approval of bitcoin ETF could not be a gambling as it involves analysis, maybe a kind of betting as explained above.

If the ETF is approved, it's going to join the ranks in ease of purchase with many other gambling operations in the US Stock Market. People can use the terms interchangeably when you say Trading Stocks is close to gambling, but the difference is when you go ahead and trade stocks (in this case the BTC ETF) you're given a good amount of information about a company that you can make decisions on. This information could be financial statements, current news, what the company is doing now, and so on.\

I highly doubt this'll be possible with the BTC ETF as it is going to be an ETF (commodity / currency) and not a stock which you can do some sort of technical analysis on. Though, I do wish all the best on the ETF as a whole and I hope we make bucket loads of cash.

If we can predict with accuracy what is going to happen under particular circumstances then that is not gambling, you have no way to know what number the dice is going to show up, so the direction ETF goes is irrelevant since we know what will happen whatever the outcome.

Except that there is 20%-30% chance for ETF approval, and when our dreams are crushed bitcoin crowd tends to react pretty vividly, in a negative way.
We may see that some decline is already started and price dropped ~$100 since yesterday. Hard to tell if it was caused by fear that ETF will be declined but it is not the end of negative trend.

Buying or selling at this point is gambling, ETF hold an important price stability, so we need the decision to see how will it affect bitcoin, but no matter what is the decision I still will hold my bitcoin, because I know even though the ETF not approve I believe I still got chance to be rich with bitcoin, it just the matter of time

Yes, we do not need to get panic if ETF application is not getting its approval.
I believe some other company will be filing another application by fulfilling all the requirements where Winklevoleks brothers lags in that case.

So, certainly bitcoin will reach an imaginable price level in very near future if ETF gets its approval we can see those magic moments very soon, otherwise it will obviously take some more time.

times like this that you feel like things are getting out of hand and getting too hard for you to predict the direction that price can move in, and you end up thinking trading=gambling then it is best if you stay on the side and keep watching the market.
just turn your capital to something that you are ok with (Fiat or Btc) and hold it until the situation passes. and it always does.
then get back in when things settle down and you could speculate again.

its too much prediction on what will happen after ETF and i am sure that no one can make the right prediction as the price is followed by traders on the market. so i think as long as we can make good profit with the price now and after ETF, no matter the price is down or up, we can follow the market and we still can make profit with that. but if we only want to make profit at least in $3000, we can hold it for a while and waiting until we can see the price that we want.