Bitcoin Forum

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.

Disregarding all the technical aspects related to ETF, bitcoin will grow even without that happening. Yes it's a big factor but just saying that bitcoin can established a good price with only community's support and it was proven since the commencement of operations of this crypto.

ETF hype already created lots of speculations whether it will increase the bitcoin price or not. The bottom line here is the people's view and how will they react to the market just like the halving speculations made last year.

Going back to reality, if ETF won't approved I see no price crash that will happen. Yes a correction price will established which is a good event after some huge price increase but it will not take the price to a considered "disappointment" price range.

I expect 900-1000 range. Thats the bottom.

It is hard to say that current ATH price of bitcoin is here to stay. At least now we know that it wasn't short lived bubble like that mad race in 2013.
But 'permanent' is just not a word you can find in bitcoin's glossary of terms, as far as we know price be get back to pre $800 level and no one will skip a beat.
It is obvious that high price is boosted by ETF drive, but the question is how much? Because there is no high chance for ETF approval in the first place.

exactly.
and sadly many people don't even understand this. and they will soon lose a lot of money.

if you see the manipulators are setting up the groundwork right now. there are a lot of newbie accounts repeating $800 and $900 prices over and over in all the topics and then signature spammer idiots repeat them afterwards without knowing why.

soon there will be a dump and they all panic sell and price won't even go that far down but those idtiots sell and whales become richer once again.

2017 price raise is nowhere near the 2011 and 2013 ones (from a few $ to 30 and then from a few hundred to 1100$).
I'm in for the long run, everytime i sold, it went up.

Not changing my strategy.
There is way to much FUD about the ETF.

People believe that the following day all the traders from wall street will be : BUY ALL .... not gonna happen overnight.

This is true.  I actually wasn't expecting to get anywhere near a new ATH this soon.  In fact, I pretty much wrote off bitcoin in 2014, before buying some for the first time in '15.  Anyhow, I don't know how much of this price movement has to do with this ETF, but bitcoin can and will survive without it, if it comes to that.  I'm still not sure what advantage introducing a derivative into the bitcoin world is, except whales can come in and buy freely without worrying about buying up every single satoshi and moving the price up a few thousand dollars. 

I'm financially naive, however.  It'll be interesting to see what happens if/when the ETF does get approved.  March 11th, correct?

this is how bitcoin market works these days, maybe in a couple of years it grows bigger and exchanges grow bigger so newbies become irrelevant in how price changes.
the news like this always change the course of price temporarily, i agree that it won't crash but we will surely see a drop even small if it is rejected because many weak hands see that as a crash and run away. and the funny part is this is not the first time and not the first news and won't be the last.

the only thing that we can do is taking advantage of this to make a bigger profit. why just let whales make profit :)

if the ETF gets rejected it will drop under 1000 in my opinion, not really a bad thing its to be expected, A price crash like a couple years ago though no not a chance.

I do not think it will crash.
It might drop a little, but it will not crash.
Most of the guys who know what they are talking about already predict that ETF will not be approved, so it will not be a surprise.
Maybe a few of the small speculants try it anyway, and they sell after a negative vote. But I can not imagine big investors moving in when chances are against them.

Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

if ETF not aprove bitcoin, i think bitcoin price can crash and very down price
my prediction is much people panic selling too, bitcoin price can range 700 - 900 dollar bitcoin,
but if bitcoin user not panic selling, bitcoin price can still above 900 dollar, maybe still 1000 dollar/bitcoin

$1000 is the maximum decrease the price of bitcoin, because bitcoin has the strong support right now, a lot of the new demands according to the stat of the bitcoin network and the demand is always increase everytime.

For the mean time in my own speculation maybe its has a big effect on bitcoins price on its ATH .
But then if ETF is not approved it has effect also on bitcoins price to dump .Not worrying about this because it will not stop the bitcoins price .Bitcoins can stand alone and ETF if not this time, it will will go for the long term process .

How It means nothing? It definitely means something as the price is simply based on demand and supply, people who bought only and only hoping to make some profit from the ETF will see no results after the ETF and that will simply make them sell their coins and the price will decrease or crash (depends on how much bitcoins were bought in the first place)

That is my thinking....if it does not pass...800 to 900 coin and it pops back to around ATH in a month, due to strong fundamentals imho :)

If the ETF does pass..then buy like heck because the mother of all pumps is coming and the new floor will likely (again imho) be around 1500 usd at worst)

thus perfect....moon buy...bust buy..as a long term holder it is even more obvious then normal when to buy :)

So you don't think it will rise sharply if it is accepted then?   The price now will lie between the price of if the ETF is accepted and if it is rejected.

Apparently there is a 1/3 chance it will be accepted and a 2/3 chance of rejection. So the price rise should the ETF be accepted should be double the fall if it is rejected. Still we don't know how much is priced into the market, except that we are at ATHs.

There are obviously not too many shorts at the moment, that is why the price is at an ATH and rising!

Well it will not really crash like everyone expects it too since bitcoin is strong unlike in the past 2013 where it can be easily manipulated. I just expect a correction to a little near 1000$ or sub 1000$ but it will be back up again. I really do hope that ETF will be accepted so that I can receive more money from converting bitcoin since I always convert to fiat. If it is rejected, I guess I will rebuy again to gain the btc that I lost in converting to fiat.

There is no ETF when this price grow way high.
I think it will not affect that too even if accepted or not.
This is a good thread to open up the minds of those who think there will be a big change like the one posted way up there saying it will go down to $900. Pfft.
Even if it gets accepted there wont be much of a change.

you are just repeating the same $900 false speculation with other words. and i have to tell you 20% drop is way too big for just an ETF rejection. price needs much more than that to drop that much.
and even if by some miracle some whales dumped it down to lower than $1000 it will jump back up immediately.

Good, that you also think price is not rising due to ETF. Now that you mention that bitcoin will not fall after ETF rejection, could you share you thoughts on why bitcoin price is increasing in first place? There must be other reasons or justification for price rise. Is it another pump and dump? 

Yes it is my friend. You can see it because bitcoin is in overbought area. Dont let them fool you. Dont let the dump take you.

I think that you are absolutely right about it,
And also I really do hope that it is true I bitcoin price went this far without even the ETF accepting it,
So why will it effect the bitcoin's price I mean why would it crash if they reject it.

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

That obviously doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead. Trend reversals happen and will happen again. Best we can expect is that the reversal this time is less harsh and maybe could pressure the devs to accelerate a scalability solution.

Gold is not useful to be sent around quickly and cheaply, this does not mean it isn't a good safe haven, and that is why people are buying bitcoin, not to buy coffee but to improve their wealth and keep it outside the system.



Bitcoin continues to be a better gold no matter what. The fact that bitcoin is constantly getting older, it makes it increasinly more valuable because it keeps proving it can survive for a long time, not to mention the obvious fact that less and less coins will be available so FOMO is a matter of time that it would kick in.


Look what? just short lived pump and dumps. Bitcoin 80%+ marketcap supremacy over all altcoins is as solid at ever.

About the instamined thing, satoshi didn't change total coin supply:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=995710.0

but what make you think that current value represent mass adoption? nothing make this true, in fact with the true adoption bitcoin would be at $50k, not at $700, $700 is a joke man, it's not a value for mass adoption, and we don't need to fix that issue to have bitcoin holding at $1000, but i agree that it must be fixed for the future to make bitcoin stronger

The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.

That's exactly the problem. If these people are new to trading and high-risk assets, they are vulnerable to panic reactions when a short seller tries to lower the price. (Even worse if they have learned some basic TA and the short-seller is "attacking" just at a relevant price mark)

Gold has "intrinsic value" because it's used in the industry. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is tied to the network effect, mainly because it's "useful" to move money around and sell and buy things. Unfortunately just this "usefulness" is getting actually hit because of the scalability problem (higher transaction fees, bottlenecks ...).


Here I partly agree - these affirmations of bears that "Bitcoin will be dead" in short time are not more credible after it survived even the MtGox disaster. But I think if the ETF is rejected, a FOMO rally would be delayed at least some months - I would expect it end-2017/beginning of 2018, maybe earlier if things are moving forward regarding scalability.


I would not be too sure of this to be an "eternal protection of Bitcoin's leadership". In the last days, there was a lot of movement in the altcoin market. We never had 7 coins with more of 100 million market cap before. I agree that Dash may be a P'n'D but the Monero and ETH rallies, for example, look much more sustainable. And more important: This time the altcoin supporters have a "valid reason" for their grandezza dreams: their transactions are much cheaper and faster than Bitcoin's.

I think it's very likely that we'll crash if the ETF is rejected. My guess based on nothing other than a personal opinion is around a 200 USD dump.

Hopefully it is approved though.

Gold has no intrinsic value. Nobody buys it because it's used in some niche cases. If that was the case, the marketcap would be tiny compared to the current marketcap, which is based on:

1) Network effect
2) Ability to hold money outside of the system
3) Speculation

Just like bitcoin. But bitcoin is even better since it has unique features, like moving money from A to B in ways that are impossible in any other way, that is it intrinsic feature dare I say.

About noobs panic selling or panic buying, that also happens with gold, but since the marketcap is huge, the effect is not that noticeable. Bitcoin will keep growing in marketcap, which means those same panic sells/buys will be less noticeable overtime.


Bitcoin is undervalued as it is today, so it will keep growing even if no major scaling updates are rolled out, with that im not saying shouldn't and will not come, they will sooner or later (not in BUcoin form tho)


Those coins are so fast because nobody uses them. If they had the same amount of transaction volume as bitcoin then guess what would happen.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

You can see here, BTC dominance has been about 85% during the DASH pump, so BTC didn't even flinch. Since the altcoin hype started back in 2013, as naturally predicted, it went from 100 to 80% ish on average and is being pretty stable there. The lower peaks are due ridiculous hype like the ETH pump and dump.

I agree that gold's "intrinsic" value is much smaller than its current price, but it exists and is the base for all the hype around it. In the case of Bitcoin, the intrinsic value is exclusively tied to network effect because the code itself can be freely copied (and has been copied many times as we all know). Altcoins aren't bigger only because they're far away from Bitcoin's network effect size.


I agree, but we're talking about an event that takes place in a few days, not in a couple of years :P


I agree that cryptocurrencies are undervalued, and so is Bitcoin if it conserves its leading role in the cryptocurrency space. But Bitcoin was also undervalued in early 2014 and it got into a bear market for more than a year. So I don't understand why this affirmation is contrary to a short-to-mid-term trend reversal like the one I mentioned here (I've already said that I'm not talking about "Bitcoin's dead" here.)


Valid point, but there are altcoins which do have superior scalability to BTC (e.g. IOTA, Ardor and maybe Byteball but that last one seems pretty centralized to me.). And for the short-to-mid term, if (for example) Dash and Monero manage to capture 50% of Bitcoin's transaction volume (25% each) then none of each will have scalability problems but Bitcoin's leadership already would be under question.


If you look at the graph, the long-term trend and the very-short-term trend are both going downwards (that means, the Bitcoin dominance tends to go down). The mid-term trend was stable in the last months - in my opinion because Bitcoin's rally has attracted a lot of altcoin speculators' money. But I expect that to change. We can freeze this discussion now because we can't look into the future ;)

I think you misunderpreted my affirmation of a "post-ETF crash" to be long-term bearish, but I'm talking only about the short term and what could happen on March 11/13. And I don't see sub-500 (and maybe not even sub-700) prices - at least if the Segwit/scaling stalemate doesn't continue for much longer.

In case you didn't notice we have reached ATH while being tangled in all these problem you listed.
We have massive spam attacks on the network, we are in the middle of scaling crisis, bitcoin's tx fees are the highest ever,
major Chinese exchanges aren't fully operational and there is risk of further regulations. Yet, bitcoin reached ATH.
Contradiction?

this only shows that you (like many others) don't know what crash means and what it looks like in a market.
not every price drop is a crash. you hear it be called "a crash" by those who don't know it or want to spread some FUD about bitcoin.
these drops are simple and normal in any market. they have many reasons, from simple correction to FUD and panic selling because of some manipulation.
in case of ETF price won't crash, it may however go down a little bit because many like you fall for the FUD and think it will crash because of random news and sell their coins and there is nothing we love more than some cheap coins.

If etf gets rejected sure there will be a crash in the price at least to some extent. It's been justified by bitcoin experts about the reason for the crash. Only the gradual price movement happens once it's result is announced. The second day result too has got importance even if the etf is approved on 11th March.

Agreed, but if it does crash this will be a contributing factor, just like how the drop from the PBOC scare happened

Again imho. (Not that I know zip...at one time I drank the butterfly labs kool-aid). I STILL think if it does NOT get passed at this point in time it will 'expose' 2 things

1) The powers that be really, really hate BTC and the notion of a BTC ETF the last week, after a 3.5 year quest. That would tell me something about coming backlash
    on BTC and cyrpto in particular imho.

2) IF again, it does NOT get passed. Then the folk that turned it down, will really, really have to be nit picky and find lots of ifs/ans/or butts, because last I heard
there are at least 3 groups trying to fix their own brand of ETF for BTC ASAP. Thus, it the twins ETF is turned down this week, the powers that be will have to say WHY
which will allow the 3 late comers to 'adjust' accordingly. Gonna be harder and harder to justify imho. Especially if BTC continues to rise in value and show more
stablity as a  platform.

If nothing else a denial of the ETF (if it happens) will be very eye opening and open some more light on the process in the future...making it less likely the next ETF
attempt to take 3.5 years.

Again ...I've no clue..just how I am approaching this. Also if it does not pass I expect a 25% dump in price ...say around 900 bucks usd with a 2 month recovery to ATH again.

We will see I guess. IF they are gonna kill it ..I wish they'd get on with it...I got 'cheap coin' I need to buy if that is the case :)

I agree with OP that price will not crash even if ETF is rejected after all we all can see that bitcoin is strong nowadays resisting attempted dumps just months and weeks ago especially on new years eve. We have seen bitcoin fall down below sub 1000$ yet it had risen again. I will just hold all the bitcoin I got and decide at the right time to sell it I hope im online at that time though.

As we can see, we don't need ETF to fail. Bitcoin will crash and burn just fine without it gettinf approved or denied.

The Chinese are hardforking bitcoin with a huge userbase and better properties. This time there may be no recovery.

haha, kwukduck is like one of those genies in cartoons that tell you to "burn one of my hair so i can appear and talk to you". and for him you have to have a dip so he can appear :)
now price went down and kwukduck appeared and started to say the same crap as always like a broken record. this time with another one of his old FUD about China.

Many people keep saying that, if an ETF rejects bitcoin the price bitcoin will crash. But I think it won't completely crash there will be a marginal fall in the price. It is one of the most speculative is being propagated at present whether an ETF accepts or rejects, till now the price of bitcoin is not decided by the ETF. But after some time again bitcoin price will bounce back to normal situation.

If bitcoin price drop max 20%, then it could be $960-$980, less than $1000. I mark your words, but I guess it will drop back below $1000 if ETF get rejected. Current increases trigger by speculation if SEC will approve winklevoss ETF which the price could reach $2000/$3000 in this month.

I have a big amount of BTC stored, in no way I am selling them right now to buy later cheaper. What if the prices increases grammatically and I lose my money?

Thats why you should hold and set your stop loss at the right price. This way you can ride the rocket if the ETF gets approved and make sure you dont lose allot if it doesnt get approved. Also this will make you be able to buy the dip afer.

One of Bitcoin's Big Funds is Selling Ahead of the ETF Decision (http://www.coindesk.com/one-bitcoins-biggest-funds-selling-ahead-etf-decision/)

We're actually seeing the pre-decision pre-dump - $100 in about 24 hours. I think that's a (still very timid) "preview" of what can come after a final negative decision.

Some sources say the decision will come before Friday. So get ready for the rollercoaster in every moment ... The BitMEX traders say actually it's ~50/50 (but as the indicator is distorted because it pays BTC and not USD to the winners, I think it's more kind of ~40/60 or even ~30/70).

I think they will have to buy back at $1250 or higher if they still want to invest in bitcoin.