Bitcoin Forum

Easy question ;)

Not an easy answer to predict though. I really hope it gets approved but in all honesty have no idea what the decision will be.

I've voted rejected.

Some independent (i.e. not bitcoin enthusiast) have speculated the odds of its approval are about 50/50, basically it depends on which side of bed the regulators get up on.

I think what may swing the decision is that if such an ETF starts to get high frequency trading on NASDAQ, it could lead to such an increase in arbitrage activity across multiple bitcoin exchanges that there is bound to be an increase in inter bitcoin exchange transfers over the blockchain.

I think at this moment in time it might not be good for bitcoin. I'm not in the markets are rational camp. I'd prefer to see steady growth than another 2013 irrational exuberance event.

I've voted for the ETF to be approved. I don't have much reasons for that except for the price to blow up high which should be a positive side for all bitcoin holders such as me. But just as what above reply said, that the approval is on 50/50.

I think it will be rejected. The SEC will play safe this time around.
PS - The decision will come only on March 13, which is a Monday.

I'm going to lean to the optimistic side of things. If not now, when? If rejected, why? People can already lose their shirts investing in bitcoin, the ETF just provides a safer, more regulated environment for such investment.

This is completely speculative and non-rational, but I just have a gut feeling that the election of Trump signals a more business-like acceptance of risk-taking as part of life, and that this could provide a subliminal tipping point in the decision-makers thinking. Or to put it another way, the nanny-state worldview has been thrown back a couple paces, and it is that worldview which would lend itself to denying the ETF as "too risky."

wasn't this EFT already rejected many times? i think this time they will approve it


regulation is important in crypto, for me it's what keep the naive investors away from this world, with more regulation more money come in the market

If it get approved good for buy and holds traders as bitcoin price will pump up. But let look at the rational behind why if it get approved by security and exchange commission it will affect bitcoin in a long run. Bitcoin was created as a crypto currencies, ETF approval will make investors to see bitcoin as stock and and precious metals and in doing that bitcoin value as a currencies will be undermined.though for now it might be approve.

Not rejected. The decision deadline has been postponed repeatedly.

I don't understand why anyone's devoting brain power to trying to predict this. 

I voted for rejected as well.

But there are two other Bitcoin ETFs in the pipeline, so this will start all over again in a few months!

I am the true optimist here and voted for a "approval" because I think with Trump in power.. we might see some new decisions being made than

what was the norm a while ago. I think it is time for change and Bitcoin brings that change to the market. The ETF is a extra level of protection

for investors in Bitcoin... if they reject it now, people will invest in Bitcoin directly and this carry more risk for these investors.  ;)

I don't think it'll happen this time..

...

I hope that the BTC ETF is approved.  My *guess*, FWIW, is that it will be.

But what is more important is the acceptance of Bitcoin itself!  This is what is really more important, acceptance by more users and more merchants.  Approval of the ETF might speed up acceptance by mroe people as it enhances BTC visibility.  And makes Bitcoin less shady-looking.

I think it'll be rejected.

If the SEC is so intent on repeatedly postponing the result, I don't think they're confident in the stability of Bitcoin as an investment and therefore are unlikely to approve it.

There are so many other factors which will make Bitcoin a great investment, so maybe in the future they will accept it, but I don't think now will be the time.

I have heard arguments both for and against this ETF being approved and i still dont really know where i stand myself.  Tone vays thinks that it will be rejected but Trace mayers thinks it's a good thing.  I sort think that if more money can come into bitcoin the better for the community as there will be higher demand.

But i have also seen posts about how it might allow big corporations to produce derivatives contracts in the future, which could be bad.

We need to realize main two facts:

1. Some bitcoin newbies think that 11 March is some kind of final and definite date. It is Now or Never.
No it is not. EFT will be merely postponed and accepted in the future for sure. Winklevoss might need to add another layer of security to protect customers etc.

2. Professional market analysts agreed that current chances for ETF approval are less than 30%
We know that analytics were wrong before, but please don't keep your hope high in this case.

I'm not so sure about this. They may have to put together a completely new application. And this deadline isn't the ETF application anyway, it's the BATS rule change.

If that rule change isn't implemented then the Winklevii will need to find a new exchange.

And there are two more applications coming along in short succession.

No, the March 13 (not 11) date is the final date for the Winkelvoss ETF. There are no more postponements possible for it.

I've seen professionals say 30%, 50%, over 50%, and similar numbers. No one really knows.

I voted for approval though that is somehow a wishful thinking since I am not actually sure that it will be approved.  All the decision is upto SEC and the only thing we can do is hope they will get what majority of the community wants and approve it.

The numbers are all over the place. Bitmex futures contract has also vacillated wildly.

Looking at the current composition of the SEC, and that they've still not rejected it yet, I think the odds are at least 50% in its favour.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has been put off winklevoss ETF decision several times and this is the last chance. Why they decide to delay it? They may consider and need more time to see how bitcoin overcome security issues and government regulations regarding bitcoin. 50:50 maybe the best chance that we have, but I have read the leaked news, so it more likely to be approved.

Because a lot of people are gambling with this approval. It seems like we back on 2013. The hype of the SEC decision pushes the price of bitcoin. And to avoid the bullish trap in the future if there will negative news after 11 march. It is not wrong in my mind.

I've no idea why they postponed it, but the fact that they did long enough to witness China turning to shit is the one thing that might sway them to yes if it were a no before.

Much as I dig BTC, there's no way I would've sanctioned investor exposure to something controlled by a bunch of bucket shops on the other side of the world.



By all means guess and bet. There's nothing else you can do. It's pure pissing in the wind.

The real question is, what happens to BTC in the case of positive or negative? We can't tell which way it'll go but we can guess how far.

Many are optimistic, analyst and common bitcoin users alike, that the Winklevoss bitcoin ETF is going to be approved because it is backed by a reputable financial institution. As one expert puts it, “ETFs have this long history of opening up new markets. A great example of an ETF that was approved by the SEC is ASHR, which was approved by the SEC before US companies came about to trade.” Now that we are just a few days away from that decision, we can expect the price of bitcoin to be a bit unsteady.

Really, I can't think any good reason SEC could find so as to reject the ETF except if they don't want to see a surge in bitcoin's price. Anyone must take under consideration that process of this ETF going on for about 3 1/2 years. So the rumor of FUD some journalists claimed as the best reason of not approval is unfounded.

On the other hand the SEC needs to open the market to new innovation. Especially not to loose market share around the world.

IMO, i voted yes as reason stated below.

- It is slowly accepted by different countries
- It has a very good use as a transact method, no email verification, details, just address and go
- It seems to be a better currency compare via paypal, people even pay off paypal for btc at preev rate 5-10%

Same reasons here I voted Yes. as of now, with 58.2% of voters Approve also here with our local Poll. Nice to know that majority also wants this to be passed.It will strengthened also the trust on bitcoin in my opinion.

Definitely it won't get approval.  It will get rejected. 100%  sure. And there will be a sudden drop in bitcoin price because many will start selling their bitcoins and will start investing in other cryptocurrencies like ether and monero.  I hope after March 13th ether and monero price will shoot up.In my opinion, it's right time to get some ether and monero guys.

We follow the same path when it comes to this ETF all the time, people here go ahead and get really optimistic about it getting approved by the SEC and then reference reasons as to why it'll be approved which they think is solid evidence. I personally don't think this is going to get approved by the SEC, even with the entrance of President Donald J Trump and a more business friendly approach I think the SEC is going to play it safe.


With the current volatility of Bitcoin and the ease of arbitrage on all of the exchanges when the ETF actually goes ahead and launches, I just don't think it'll be possible for it to stay at the same level of risk as all of the other ETF's on the market.

Most of what I have read would indicate that the ETF is not likely to be approved. I'm not sure why they would not approve it though. It would be good for the health of Bitcoin.

We all want to approve it so it will help i more in bitcoinprice right now, but honesty I think it will be rejected we only need a little more patience to know what will happen only Few days left.

I was voting SEC to delaying the approval again.
- Bitcoin is not ready for the massive transaction if US gate will be opening as soon as possible. (Scalability problem)
- It will make the bitcoin being more centralized with a lot of the institution try to monitoring the bitcoin.
- Does PayPal is a currency, and I don't think soo.

If the price of 1 bitcoin jumps from $300 to $1,200.

That seems like it might fall under capital gains tax.

By not approving the ETF sooner, the state is unable to tax those gains as effectively.

What happens if the price of btc rises from $1,200 to $10,000.

That would be more lost tax income.

I think the ETF might be approved on that basis.

But with all the variables and conflicting special interests in play, its really anyone's guess as to what will actually happen.

If the SEC refuses to approve it, that might not make a difference.

Maybe iceland or another country more sympathetic to alt coins would give it approval.

One of Bitcoin's Big Funds is Selling Ahead of the ETF Decision

http://www.coindesk.com/one-bitcoins-biggest-funds-selling-ahead-etf-decision/

For me I'm for any solution capable of curbing the problems Bitcoin is facing. I don't want to join the politics of which is better, just any that can solve the delayed confirmation process.

They have no more idea about this than anyone else. If I had my coins in there I wouldn't be too impressed with their pure guesswork. Where does the 25% figure come from?

Like every other actively traded fund, if you'd just sat there and did fuck all you'd eventually beat them. And you're paying them to throw your money away. My best performing fund goes months without making a buy or sell.

Even i do agree that the it will be rejected this time around but the fact remains that they have not made any decisions yet because in a normal situation if they are not having any plans to approve they would ask them to withdraw the proposal but in this case the SEC has not uttered a word and so there are possibilities.

They just wanna gets more cheap bitcoin. Must they try to announce it? Okay, Let's say of they were selling the bitcoin on ATH and try to buy back on the cheap price.

Nice profit for them.
 

Hopefully approved

If we hear nothing until the night from Friday to Saturday New York time, it has been approved. I think the market will start to react much earlier.

I think ETF will be Approval, but with same changes and restrictions.

As a bitcoin enthusiast, I'm hoping that it will be approved. The big amount of money that will pour in when it gets approval will push the bitcoin's price to new highs and that is a good thing. But based on what's happening right now (huge swings in the price of bitcoin, its volatility), the approving body could reject it. They'll just play it safe.

Now I read the decision will be on the 13.???

http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/03/06/psa-bitcoin-etf-decision-will-occur-march-13-not-march-11/

Yeah, March 11th fell on a Saturday so they had to move it to the working day after it, a Monday.


Obviously I hope it'll be approved, but I think it'll be rejected.  Bitcoin is still very volatile, as it's even shown leading up to the ETF and I'm not sure they'd want to approve it right now with something so unusual unless it was at least a fair bit more established.

It'll be approved. If it was to be rejected the winks would've already withdrawn their proposal.

I just saw this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ5qWGy10Rk

I think it will be approved soon :)

Why would have withdrawn their proposal? It would just go into the next month and this would repeat until it will be approved.

Hopefully it will approve :o

They cannot wait. This is final for Winklevoss. If approved they will get their ETF, if denied they have to look at the reason why and make a new proposal. If nothing is said it is equal to a yes. There are 2 ETF waiting after Winklevoss, if they get denied they can modify their proposals and expedite their approval.

 If the reason for the denial is beyond the ETF control, like BTC  limitations on block size, only the miners can make the changes needed to get an ETF. So there's a lot in the air.

Glad to hear that they actually know their days of the week now. ::)

Somebody knows something

I don't know if this has something to do with the ETF announcement but BTC few minutes ago went to $1336 from $1200 range and then currently trading at $1240-$1250 range. Maybe someone already knows the decision of SEC. Maybe they will approve it? Bitcoin will be very volatile in the coming hours.

Seeing on the poll seems like a close fight because insights are almost even but this is actually true some would like to be approved and some wouldn't like but no matter which way we go through one things for sure we do make money In either way.

Just like with anyone else I'm hoping for a favourable outcome and hopefully the ETF is approved by the SEC, but there is no news yet and there are variables that could dramatically impact what is permitted.

If the ETF does get approved, I would be getting ready and expecting more government regulation sooner rather than later, and that won't necessarily be a good thing at all when you consider the potential ramifications.

I was wrong, but I'm glad that from this cryptocurrency as a whole has nothing to lose, and alternative cryptocurrencies have grown significantly