Bitcoin Forum

So... has Goliath just been roused from a slumber?  Are we going to see Asics flooding the market any day now? 

Should Avalon Batch 2 and 3 folks be concerned? 

What says the "wisdom of the crowd"?

They will be delivering preorders for AT LEAST the next 6 months judging by the release of their FPGAs.

They haven't even finished the design for the Single or little Single yet.

Also, they aren't shipping yet.. these are prototypes shipped to developers and one PR guy.

I bet full scale shipping to actual customers is at least a week away if not more.

This will add to the flow of ASICs but not in any radical way. Avalon has 1200 units shipping/almost shipping and at least 30,000 chips have been sold now. So you can expect the difficulty to double each month for the next few months at least. BFL will add to that as they manage to get some out the door, but with so many already in progress it's not a gamer changer for anyone who has been paying attention and projecting ahead.

I must admit, I voted solely on the strength of the "Wha'choo talkin bout Willis" argument.

I want BFL to ship my singles, I also don't want BFL to ship so my batch 3 avalon have a chance of ROI. I just can't win can I :(

Let's look at worse case scenario and assume they ship monday and everything is overnighted with saturday deliveries.  At this point, only the 5gh will ship and who knows when the bigger units will ship. 

Here is the math.

5gh x 400 units a day(that is going on what they have said they can do)= 2th a day x 5 days a week = 10th a week

So that to me is worse case scenario.  Then again, who knows when they will start shipping in bulk or how many a day they can really ship. 

With ASICs in the wild new mining adopters (the rest of the world) will be forced to buy from companies like BLF. This will force other crypto currencies like Litecoin to come into favor since people can still mine that with a regular desktop machine.  Bitcoin was intended to be a non-centralized currency so it seems unreasonable that people will favor it as it becomes more centralized in large mining farms like ASICMiner.

 

Forget about idea mate, nobody doesn't give a shit about it at this stage. It's all about money now.

It depends how many TH they can ship and how quickly.  Whether it ships as Jalapenos or Mini-rigs doesn't really matter.  If they - or any other ASIC vendor - can get significant hashing power into the hands of their customers quickly, it's a game changer.

Yup, people on here would pimp out their moms for overnight delivery on any asic.

It's shame really... we're all here (or huge, huge majority) for money but it's going too far... I remember reading these forums 2-3 years ago and finding people here as some cool, mystic, revolutionary group but that went to bobbins when bitcoin went to 260$ and asic's hashing power calculations hit the brains :)

I feel the same. Some of the venom coming from people on this forum is incredible.Not much of a community where we are here for the same purpose and to help each other out, more reminds me of a sports forum. Where immature idiots call each other names because they support the wrong team.

I don't care who they pimp.  ASICs cannot mine litecoin and so the miners will migrate as soon as they recognize this...  Miners make more money mining litecoin than bitcoin.  Why would they mine bitcoin?  Today my machine mines both at about the same profit per day (http://dustcoin.com/mining).  

When the ASICS all ship my machine will make much more money mining litecoin and the ASICs will not be able to follow.

Conflict is a fact of nature and tribalization seems to be one of human nature.  I think there are a few folks here who are professional miners, but the rest are just enjoying the crazy larger tribe that is bitcoin.  There are a couple of vocal blowhards... but the ignore button isn't that difficult to use.

Enjoy!  I am glad this poll is seeing some interesting discussion.

Right, and as more and more people flock to litecoins, difficulty goes up like crazy like it has been.  If the price doesn't rise with the difficulty people who mine litecoins(like myself) are going to be making less money.  Right now we are sitting at 6% more profit then bitcoins.  What happens next?

What happens next is a mass adoption of the currency, replacing bitcoin for these primary reasons:

1) mining does not require large sums of capital, it can be done by any PC.
2) mining algorithm does not allow a deep pocket ASIC solution to centralize the mining
3) transaction time is reduced, so merchants actually adopt it.
4) money supply is increased, not restricted to 21 million coins.

 

You can expect most of the base 30TH/s of GPUs to migrate to Litecoin. What would the price of Litecoin do then? A currency no one has any use for except converting to Bitcoin.

Aren't ASIC prices supposed to come down the more chips are made?

I guess we'll get a sense of whether that's going to happen when 490,000 Avalon chips are delivered in August and we have a heap of different people selling units.

There's not really any particular reason why volume means prices must come down.  If the market will sustain high prices, then many businesses will charge high prices for as long as possible regardless of actual production costs. 

Exactly what I think. If you've been mining bitcoins and/or are going big, stay in the game a while, but I suggest to start on litecoin now before it explodes, and I bet you it will because everybody on this forum is coming to that conclusion at some point or another.

Of course when *somebody* figures out how to build a scrypt FPGA or ASIC they'll just change the algorithm, ya?

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Re: 490,000 Avalon chips already ordered - 150T hashrate spike coming in August
Today at 02:31:37 PM
   
Reply with quote  #25
Oh, this gets interesting. I didn't expect this amount of sales in such a short timewindow.

Now it would be a golden time for BFL to start shipping if they don't want cancelled orders flooding in like crazy.

You don't necessarily need to change the build design for a scrypt FPGA. You just have to reprogram the bitstream, and older FPGA chips may have a significant disadvantage due to RAM usage. As far as ASIC development, to develop a chip will cost millions.

What "real" shipment?

Real shipment happens when there is hundreds of units shipped to the paying customers in roughly the same order than the orders were placed.

+1
The equation is just the same at it will be for at least next two months BFL will not play any part in it officially.

However i would not be surprised if they start mine with first assembled units after a month or so eventually keeping this silent with loud bumping updates

Well begrudgingly must say 'good stuff' to BFL for finally [at least start] producing and shipping units.  Still haven't seen much evidence that they'll be able to build any products in bulk yet, but at least now it does look like it will happen.

Once these get out the doors, and just a few months more, maybe just 2, and it's gonna be a radically different ball game for miners now.

I think the real profit making potential is going to shift more towards the hardware makers now, with ASICS.  Not before long it's going to cost a lot of money just to make a meager amount of BTC in mining. Looks like you'll have to pay a couple of grand just to have enough hashes to make a maybe-ROI of what, 3 months or so? before your product is already out of date then, with little resale value. Edit: maybe I'm being a pessimist...

BFL just completely f***ed it up... it only worked because the bitcoin company was so "horny on their products".(Great PR btw.)

In the end it looks to me as a classical long con. First they delivered their FPGAs, this gave people more trust, as they delivered it (of course with some delays).
Now we are nearly waiting over ONE year, for a product, that hasnt met their specifications on power consumptions and and and...


Probably we'll receive it in a few months when there are more than 1,000,000 AVALON chips out.
At least AVALON pushes in the right direction, "decentralization"  ;)

this!