Bitcoin Forum

the price seems to be holding its breath as every technical indicator known to man approaches 'neutral'...

something's coming. good luck bolls and bars. it's up to you to decide what happens next...

maybe i should add a poll? UP or DOWN?

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http://s10.postimg.org/shn2wsoc9/inflection.png

EDIT: added to the OP

What do you think are the chances for each ?

it's quiet. toooo quiet.

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http://s24.postimg.org/6ntueoaqd/quiet.png

i'm not wearing my TA hat right now, sorry.

this is me gauging market sentiment. ;)

also, it's likely for there to be a large movement soon.

Yeah - I think the technical stuff is non-operational at the moment.  And yeah, that hourly month chart is looking like: BOOM!

And there's all that cash sitting.  People hate having their cash sit around...

I don't know about you, but I love having cash sit around.

[puts on TA hat]

working on a model right now. the problem being this:

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[i hope lucif doesn't mind my reposting his work, i'm a big fan]

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because of the short but strong bull run we just witnessed, if we break through these serious resistances it will signal a strong movement up, in continuation of this strong short-term trend. if we fail to break through the resistance it will be a signal to relieve the selling pressure (from the larger downtrend) that's been building up in the askwall. from my own analysis, it's nearly 50/50, with the bearish bullish scenario slightly more likely (approx 55-45).

based on the data in the next 24 hours, i can complete the model and i will make it available on the forums, along with mid-term projections.

edit: mistype

well, i feel like sharing some real analysis now. i guess i'll put it here.

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http://s23.postimg.org/bxly3hop7/trendlinebroken.png

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trendline broken, swings the 50-50 call in favor of the bears. most likely outcomes: triangle with bearish downside breakout, or bulltrap breakout.

Could we really expect it to continue that trend through the whole weekend though?

wtf is that supposed to be.

that is a trendline with 7 points of contact -- very robust. remember that price at this scale has a lot of noise in it...

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http://s7.postimg.org/gys747lgr/trendlinebroken.png

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it's also a projection that is unfolding as i type with a $10 push down, forming a top.

"this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period."

What black magic is this?!?!

It's just arepo's commentary on marriage.

https://i.imgur.com/zxqrwah.png

Now blood red day... not looking good friends

Neutral in bitcoin world means down.  If you take $20 million of visible bids on Mtgox, and 3600 daily coins at $120, this means enough fuel for the next 45 days if all miners decide to sell.  Or 90 days if half of them sell. 

I think we're seeing a larger-scale dead cat bounce. After all, you can see that in the 2011 bubble we crashed to about 10$ to then go to 25$ then kinda "stabilize" at 16$. And you know what happened after that.

I think the real bottom is at 32$, although I have like 1.2 BTC (cashed out and withdrawn the rest) in a paper wallet.

We'll see.
TA looks uncertain at this stage - I've seen both bullish and bearish interpretations of the current charts, both camps have very good and valid arguments, but as usual with TA everyone is right until they are wrong...

Similar to that blood red day just before the price doubled?

not similar at all. we were extremely oversold on the short term at that point. the reason that now is different is because the bulls have exhausted their energy for the time being and failed to break through the 38.2% resistance line.

It's weekend, you can't expect those resistances to break with these kind of volumes. Tomorrow we will know more, until then it's anyone's guess.

price exhibits the same patterns, just on lower volume.

it's harder to confirm patterns in this setting, but the price is following my personal trading model very nicely, and i stand by the failure to break the resistances as a signal to relieve selling pressure. the market is short-term overbought, and we are, as i projected 12 hours ago, sliding into a low-volume downtrend. there even seems to be a little bear pennant forming right now, which is likely to break down.

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http://s21.postimg.org/ad54oqwjr/weakpennant.png

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i'd say the picture is still bearish for monday, specifically, but im saving the good stuff for the newsletter ;)

interesting - thanks.

newsletter?

i'm currently in the final stage of data collection for a "Price Analysis and Projection" report. it's sketched out but i'm waiting for a particular confirmation before i am confident enough in my price model to publish it.

after that, i'm going to make it available for a bounty on the forums. keep an eye out, ETA 8 hours

bearish pennant shape from above just about to close...

UP or DOWN?

YOU CHOOSE!

<1 hr

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http://s17.postimg.org/70cgv9xa7/breakout.png

and the indicative decreasing volume, for rigor:

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http://s7.postimg.org/4l6l20vuz/fallingvolume.png

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it was too difficult to see in the microscale chart above.

We're coming out of the weekend.

Up.

we'll most likely retest the $130-$135 resistance for that reason exactly, but it will hold. so this triangle (because it is on such a small scale) may indeed break up, but when we fail to break over that critical resistance the picture will become very bearish.

How bearish? 50?

no, i've revised my targets since the ones i sent you. they will be included in the report i'm finishing now. i can't really post targets publicly, it has confounding effects.

Report? Where? How much?

for the first time i'm bearish too ..  i have set a buy, a bit below 100$

5 hours no trades, price unaffected beyond an hour.  Not  a good day to draw conclusions from in my opinion.

Other than: attacks are back but we all know how to handle them.

So, it's Monday now and it still looks pretty damn bullish to me. More bids keep coming in and sell orders are evaporating. I think it may take a day or two but that $130-135 resistance is going to slowly melt away like snow in the sun. :)

yes, i'm pleasantly surprised  :D

i'm prepared for both, and it's pretty difficult to make calls on this timescale, especially with the indicators mostly neutral. we haven't touched it yet, but we'd better break through when we test it again. it's not just about the order book, it's also a key psychological resistance as well as a physical resistance set by the shape of the crash. if we fail to break that resistance again, it's not gonna look bullish anymore.

the full bid side really just means anyone who wants to take profit on coins they picked up at $50 is gonna have a good time ;)

agreed. there were a few attempted breakouts but the volume was much too low. i figured monday money would come in, but monday morning and afternoon were very quiet. nothing happened at all, and the triangle was invalidated.