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Title: . Post by: 100x on April 22, 2013, 01:31:56 AM .
Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: schmokel on April 22, 2013, 01:37:16 AM I would just like to state that most of the "fundamental analysis" used around here is very low quality. I think you guys can do better ;) Well, it's a currency backed by no government or hard asset whose price is dictated by a single exchange. Thus, a thorough analysis must be heavily seasoned with mass psychology. The answer to "what should the price be?" is "what does the other guy think?". Should be interesting! Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: SlipperySlope on April 22, 2013, 01:46:44 AM By fundamental analysis, I suppose you mean a determination of fair value without recourse to price history, In financial markets, and in commodity markets, there are no company reports to analyze - one must look at other factors to gauge current and future demand for bitcoins.
I have been looking for fundamental confirmation that this bubble peaked April 10. Here is what I have so far ...
Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: Elwar on April 22, 2013, 02:17:21 AM I believe fundamentals will be easier once a steady flow of ASICs is going out and we have a good idea of price compared to mining return on investment.
Current profit margin is 46% assuming hardware costs estimated to be $1000 per gigahash every 2 years, and bandwidth $1 per gigahash per year plus power consumption of 650 Watts per gigahash and electricity price of 15 cents per kilowatt hour. With 60 gigahash mining machines coming out, the profit margin is difficult to predict. There is a point where profit margin can go high enough that people will stop buying bitcoins and simply buy mining machines instead. This will keep the price in check. Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: SlipperySlope on April 22, 2013, 03:05:45 AM Quote This is actually incorrect. The numerator is BTC transaction volume and the denominator is BTC/USD exchange volume1. The sharp decline in the chart then makes sense, as we saw a massive increase in exchange volume over the past 4 months which is now decoupled from underlying bitcoin economic growth (people were speculating/anticipating future economic value). Agreed that the blockchain Trade Volume vs Transaction Volume Ratio displays the ratio transaction volume / trade volume. I transposed the factors described in this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182403.msg1904297#msg1904297). To check your constructive criticism, I ran the python script myself, and also inspected the most recent respective values from the two source charts: USD Exchange Trade Volume, and Estimated USD Transaction Volume. And I agree that as the bubble formed, the ratio decreased because of the relative increase of trade volume verses transaction volume. Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: ManBearPig on April 22, 2013, 05:54:41 PM I would just like to state that most of the "fundamental analysis" used around here is very low quality. I think you guys can do better ;) You first. Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: mgio on April 22, 2013, 06:29:00 PM You can't do fundamental analysis on bitcoin presently. And TA is all voodoo. Best to go on the psychology of people who are buying it.
Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: ElectricMucus on April 22, 2013, 06:37:55 PM "The fundamentals are sound."
—Famous last words of every Title: Re: Too much TA, not enough fundamental/investigative analysis Post by: lebing on April 22, 2013, 06:42:13 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143973.0
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