Bitcoin Forum

I've seen allot of people here and on reddit speculating that the value of BTC is likely to compensate back to much lower than current rates, like around $50. I personally don't see it, what with the whole world jumping on the band wagon, but I'm new to this.

Does anyone still think that there is a reason for it to return to a lower value other than government intervention or the 51% problem?

Once all the media decides that they're bored of bitcoin the value will take a significant hit. Personally I don't see it dropping too much below 50% of its value at the time, but it can't sustain being worth 100 with current hashpower/transaction combo. It's not used enough yet. I wouldn't pay more than $60 for one right now. They're just not worth it. If the media stops covering that's a lot less people paying attention. Which means a lot less value. Long term it could very easily go up to $1000+. But near term I see probably a peak of about 150, the media losing interest, and it dropping down to 60-75 range.

ok man. you'll be buying them soon enough but most likely not for what you are hoping for.

I'm no bear, but honestly, yes, the price could easily fall back below $100. Lower than, say, $40, is far less likely but I wouldn't say that's impossible. I think we'll never see <$10 (as most recently briefly occurred in October/November last year) ever again, barring a "fail" scenario in which we fall to zero, but again, it's all just... speculation.

If the price tanks, and there's no obvious rationale for it, be positive and view it as a buying opportunity.

I don't think the price will go to 50$ ever again unless something big happens, for example bitcoins being globally banned or a bug in the protocol. Media coverage is not really needed anymore since VC's have opened their eyes for Bitcoin and large investors will make sure that their investments keep growing. With that said, i don't believe Bitcoin will lose all media coverage. It can be less mentioned in the news but i think it will keep making regular headlines on the financial pages.

It could go below $100 from a technical viewpoint, the floor of the long term rising trendline is currently about $20 or $30 or somewhere in that region. For me that is the minimum it could go to assuming the bitcoin cryptographic technology remains solid. The weak point is the exchanges specifically MtGox, if they encounter repeated serious problems, hacks etc then i could see the price go below $100.

However bitcoins seem to have weathered this last crash remarkably well. In fact I have changed my short term outlook back to BULLISH, I'm thinking we might see new highs sometime in July.

There is almost nothing that makes bitcoins worth more today than 3 weeks ago actually.
If the prices are rising again it is only because no one is selling, and lot of investors came and invested fiat into bitcoins. But sooner or later they will probably want to cash out and the price should decrease. I personally know some guys that bought expensives coins and are willing to sell them if the market hits 250 usd again, or hold them forever ...

theoretical answer: YES IT CAN.
what the rest of the forum thinks: NO!!!! it will be over $50000000 in 3 minutes.

my guess: maybe.

Yes, it can (and on a long enough time scale, will) fall below $100. The question is when.

Yes it will.

Speculative financial theory, and the experience from the June 8, 2011 bubble, suggests that the collapse from the crash April 10 to the bottom will be deeper than most people expect. So if most bears around here expect $50, then it will likely be deeper than that in several months.

The only flaw in that argument is this isn't June 2011.

I think (but do not know) that this recent bubble up was nowhere near as (proportionally) extreme or bubble-like as the runup in 2011. So the aftermath will perhaps pan out differently, because there are different forces at play now. That is not to say we won't go down, though.

no

Maybe I will and maybe it won't be for the price I want. Right now I invested in a litecoin mining rig and I'm leaning toward buying some of those. But, chances are bitcoin will drop quite a bit in the coming months. By the end of the year I can see it being at a more stable 100, but it needs to grow.

Nope. Not ever.

.........EVER.

Even after the universe suffers heat death, and the last piece of matter has decayed into nothingness, bitcoin will live on...like Jesus or 80's rock.


All Hail Bitcoin!!







 ::)

Of course it can, you might search the forum for posts from 2 weeks ago, you'd find much more optimistic questions.

Bitcoin market is so low that one fairly big sell off can send it to oblivion if some big holder decide it's in his interest. It might not too though, there's absolutely no way to know it at this point. Just be careful and don't ever let smarters like smoothie to blind your mind when it comes to your coins and your property.

30 (pessimist) to 60 (optimist) is what I expect too, long term. The buying sentiment is simply fading away:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en#q=btc-e%2C%20bitstamp&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Ditto for mtgox, but I think these smaller exchanges are more relevant for buying sentiment because they are less likely to be searched by someone who simply wants to know the "price" of bitcoins. Plotting the exchanges also addresses the "people don't search for bitcoin anymore because they know what it is" argument.

This current dead cat is caused by people who were incentivized by the first run-up, sent their money to the exchanges, but the ddos and the attacks popped the bubble prematurely, before they could buy in. So they are seeing this as a chance to buy cheap, and the positive evolution confirms their expectation and fuels the greed. Trouble is, there are no greater fools filling the ranks from behind, people who were not caught in the initial whirlpool have seen the risk and will simply stay away.

Yes if you follow the true beliefs of a "true believer" to it's ultimate extent, that is actually what they truly think will happen. It's ridiculous beyond any notion but here it is:

Ever noticed the terminology "Bitcoin singularity" here in the speculation forum? As I mentioned in my thread "This is what some of you actually believe" it is borrowed from transhumanism which in term uses it to describe two things: 1. infinite technological progress in a finite amount of time and 2. which is essentially the same thing when it comes down to it the the actual heat death of the universe itself as described in tiplers omega point.
The latter is the holy grail of transhumanism and as such of Bitcoinism which falls under the same category.

In one sentence the omega point consists of a computer made up of all matter the universe build by it's inhabitants to simulate not only infinite universes but every possible universe recursively. (Said to be possible because of time dilation effects)

In a sense it's both the most romantic and delusional idea I know, for what's it worth. That Bitcoiners don't even know for themselves what they are talking about only makes this more funny mention.

PS: No I am not trolling
PPS: Ignore at your own peril

If it does it will be at 3am gtm and only for less than a minute.

No  ;)

Yes, it can.

Simple question, simple answer.

 ;D

It can, but I wouldn't bet on it. In fact, I currently am betting against it.

yes well sun exploding and all may do it.....your right

Nice selection of opinions

Maybe it's down to the timing of three major factors. Whether the press coverage and ensuing hype will overlap with the rapidly growing support and real implementation of BTC's in commerce, decrease in value due to new ASICs, and how many people decide to sell at around the Aptil 11th peak or not.  :-\

Currently I would say that press coverage is lagging the rate of real implementation of BTC. ASICs will not cause a decrease in value, and there is no reason to think that they would. The people who sell around the previous ATH will cause, at worst, a cup and handle pattern, but considering the current atmosphere I wouldn't be surprised if resistance at $266 was minimal.

I don't think we've seen the end of the correction that began today.  I'm confident we'll go below $100 before we reach $200 again.  Though I don't see it getting anywhere like as low as $50. More like the $80 mark, and not for long.

Wishful thinking. I hope you're right  ;D

what exactly do you base your prediction on?

Its far too soon for BTC to re-bubble past $200 given recent events.  Even with today's paypal acknowledgment. Too many people who missed the opportunity to sell circa $200 last time won't let opportunity pass them by a second time. The resulting crash should briefly take us sub $100.   

is there some kinda rule here against mentioning SR? in all of these threads it does not seem to come up...the way i look at it is people need to buy btc in order to initiate the transactions which are profitable enough to them in many cases that they could even be supporting themselves on it so if they cant get the coins they want in a timely fashion they will up the offer price...as long as nothing changes those simple facts i dont see why the price of btc would drop back down below 100 again barring some crazy catastrophic event for more then a very short time...i know people that rely on the bitcoin system to make transactions that otherwise would not be possible and i think that alone is enough to sustain btc well into the future

It's always possible to go below $100. Even significantly. However, everyone should be happy it's still below $1000. Not buying at any price now will only lead to tears when we are the new billionaires.

Anything can happen in a panic led selling frenzy. The lower it goes the more people try to sell to save what money they can. That being said there are too many people who will immediately buy when its low raising the price back up again. The anticipation of another $250 high being the main factor in preventing the price from staying below $100. Contrary to what some people think the high record price of BTC and the increase in speculators is the best thing to happen to it.

It will take a long time for people to lose faith and give up on making a profit. A gradual decrease over many months because of disinterest is more realistic than rapid drop to single digits.

Maybe not significantly, but almost certain that we are going below $100, just take a look at indicators...

120 support looks strong. We'll see. I've got sub-100 buy orders placed. But I wouldn't expect to fill those that are significantly below 100 (50-70s = significant?).

the long term price is made up of:
cost of production + cost of distribution + cost of retail + cost of marketing + speculation
In recent times the speculative demand has been very high and supply steady so price is high. Once the speculation slows down price will settle.

We had a $40 drop today alone.. We can easily have a $40 drop again from this point. It's going to go under $100 more than likely at some point. Who knows, we could even be looking at single figures at some point.

Unicorns, leprechauns, pots of gold at the end of the rainbow all exist also.  :D

Add to you list BFL also :)