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So I tried this strategy at a dice site and I'm thinking of the odds of winning
So I set the chance of winning to 92% and start with minimum bet of 1000 Satoshis with profit of 76 Satoshis
Now, I could win like 9-11 times in a row, sometimes higher and lose
After losing, what would be the chance that I could lose again twice in a row?
I'm thinking of if I lose with that settings, I could go all-in with higher bet since my chance winning is higher.
What do you guys think?

The chance of losing in the next roll is 8% and stays the same for each successive roll. Just to let you know this is not a winning strategy so don't risk your money like that. As a matter of fact you can easily get 5 more losing rolls after this.

Do not complicate things so much, maybe we are just over analyze it, the real deal is you will not gonna win whatever winning percentage you will set if you want a long term goal. Simply the house edge will just ruin everything you started and will surely give you a zero in th end.
My advise is, just bet what you like and enjoy what you got for the moment as that would not last for sure.

i think this is a very common mistake that people make (me included) :)

bets that we make are completely independent on each other. your second bet has nothing to do with first and third has nothing to do with second and first and so on to the end of infinity bet.

this means with each bet you have the same chance of win or lose. you can roll the dice on 92% win chance and lose. then roll again and lose and again and again until the end of time because you simply have 8% to lose each time and it is there each time you roll the dice, it doesn't go away just because you lost once or twice or 10 times.

with that said, your strategy is what i am doing sometimes and it works sometimes and it doesn't some other times. but mostly works since the 92% win chance is big on its own.

Chance to lose on next roll would be still on 8% and using this setting might work and give you some returns but one lose all of those small wins you gain will wipe out in an instant and even suffer negative profits.Higher chances of winning doesnt guarantee anytime to make you money its still risky and never ever to go all in because 92% isnt really an assurance to win anytime.Dont forget the 8% chance on losing.

well provably you will still face defeat even you already set it up with 92% chance to win, remember you are still gamble and risk still at your side
might be a good chance to win if your timing of placing huge bets win but if suddenly it went to the other side you will suffer also a big loses and we don't have any control about that.

Even with the same 92% winning chances you cannot make a stable earning. Only the winning chance increases with the decreased payout. Even in this setting if unlucky the roll goes opposite to the prediction that we have made. So gambling is a simply a risky way to make a better earning where luck plays a major role.

I'm not sure if i'm right here but the chances of losing twice in a row with a 92% chance is at 0.0064% or 1 in 15624. If you lose imo don't go all in just to chase your losses because there's a 0.000512% chance that you could thrice in a row.

No matter the Chance Percentage you set, Either 90% or 98%, You'll still get to lose twice on thrice consecutively because The house has an edge over you. I've tried this strategy several, some with bots and some manually. After each lose, I go all in and I won for the first 5 rolls this way, But on the six roll, I lose twice and all my money was lost.


So This is not an idea strategy, Winning this way for up to ten rolls isn't a guarantee.

Well, losing twice in a row's chance would be 8% * 8% which would be 64/1000. If you keep rolling you eventually will lose twice or more times in a row.

First of all a big matter is that at which site you were making gambling , Because here winning and loss depends upon the factor of the house edge of the site , Here the simple house of freebitco.in can't allow you to make earning more than 5% .
So first of all make details of the house edge of the site .
My second suggestion for you is that don't bet more if you won two times . Because at each bet you may loss your bet .

Yeah you cant cheat the math. It might seem like you cant lose with 92%ers but that is why you dont win much each spin either.  Eventually math will catch up with you unless you get extremely lucky. The more volume you put in the more your chance of luck decreases and the houses certainty of beating you increases.

I have used this strategy before and I must say that it will not guarantee you to profit and maybe loss in the end. You still has 8% chance of losing. Believed me losing twice in a row is possible even if you put 92% chance of winning. I even won more 15x straight and I was happy and increase my bet as my bankroll increases as well. But as the roll continues, I experienced 2x or even 3x losses. So this is not a safe strategy for winning. IMHO.

Still boils down to luck. Whatever strategy it is still based on luck

I know what you are talking about. This is a known strategy which must work as many gamblers think and I myself also was part of them. What are the odds of losing two times in a row playing with 92% winning chance? Yes, we all know that the outcome of the previvous bet has no impact on the outcome of the consecutive one, but still it seems the chances of two reds in a row are extremely small. So after losing we increase our base bet 10 times and, in most cases, we recover the previvous loss. But the thing is that it is possible to lose two, three or even four times in a row playing with 92% winning chance. And when this happens we lose it all.

setting betting chance with the higher percentages will not guarantee got profit and also the profit will so low with 92% chance even you win 12 times or 15 times in a row but if you got busted at least once time it could be useless and for me just play with only 50% chance and stop bets if you lucky and get your target profit

[1] Where is the proof if we can't win more than 5% from our balance in Freebitco.in? House edge on freebitco.in is the highest from all dice games (Cmiiw) until now 5%, that's why we are mostly will lose on there, but there is no proof if we can't win more than 5%.
[2] I think OP is not too stupid to play on site which has high house edge.
@OP, get 3 red streaks on 92% still possible (even though the chance is small)

I was trying dice with highest winning odds but never made more money with these as to recover you need few hands to be on track again. Whenever I succeeded to make some money was at 49% winning odds. If I am not wrong highest amount winners always were playing with lower winning chances as return is very high. It is your luck after all to make money from dice.

Gambling and counting probability on the paper is different, each roll of the dice got the same probability, even though if we count it there should be less chances that the we are losing twice in a row, but it actually got the same chance in gambling

when you try 92% winning chance and you say you win 9-11 in a row, but I am sure that you ever experience only win for 2 or 3 times and then lose, so there are no strategy that can make you always win

I had 4 reds on +90% winning chance, and for sure I will never bet like that ever again, cause every time I lost all I had cause of this strategy. I thought its good on beginning, and after few times I saw that this strategy doesn't have happy end in most cases. Profit is low risk is to big, and just as reminder do you remember picture from this forum when some guy made this kind of bet with 100 btc, maybe year ago, and of course he lost all he had. Stay away from this strategy.

Man it's not higher. It's the same thing on roulette. Each play is independent. They have no memory.
Imagine a coin toss. It has 50% chance of head or tails, I think you agree with me in that. If I toss it, you expect to have 50% chance of winning.

If I say that I have tossed that coin 11 times and it was always tail, would you think that in that next toss it would be more likely to come up with head? Would you accept me to pay you less, if heads come up, since it was more likely that the toss would come out a heads, because of the previous 11 tails? I don't think you would agree to that, because you know that you still get 50% chances of getting heads and not more.

For me to do that high winning percentage is not worth.
Better to gamble on 50/50 or 51/49 chance , the outcome in the end is same for me personally.
It is just the matter when you have to stop on an enough profit , most people just get greedy everytime.

I had 6 consecutive reds at 90% couple times. Frankly, use high percent win of chance for a longer time is a sure lose strategy. It's better to use it once or twice only, even though there's no guarantee you won't hit the red one in first bet.

i generally dislike any strategy like this which has any chance other than 50% chance. because they are always ending badly and the amounts that are won or lost are never in proportion in my opinion.

i am even going to say it is a worse strategy than using a simple 50% chance. because when you set the chance on 92 for example you win a lot but all of them are too small to do anything and then when you lose you lose once but that one time is enough to wipe out all the previous winning and even possibly some more.

No don't do it you could lose it if you get all in. In my experience in dice, my setting is always at 95% I had 4 consecutive losses in a row even In other dice sites. I would recommend that use 50/50 chance instead rather that getting all in but it's up to you mate. Good Luck

This kind of strategy was only advisable for a short term bet or if possible just for one time big time bet. I saw this kind of strategy on bitsler high rollers, If you observe carefully all the high rollers strategy there, You will notice that they are not using risky chance percentage due to the amount of their was too high and risking it for lower chance is just a suicide, For me it is good to use high chance rate rather than lower chance so that you can guarantee profit, The only weakness of this kind of strategy was greediness. That was the only reason why people are always losing.

It's common in human nature, and Greediness is the very dangerous thing in gambling. It will take you in wrong way. And it will make you lose all money in a single day. So while playing gambling don't be tense and don't get excited when you win in the long run. Come to the strategy I think in Dice game no perfect strategy is there we have to play with our control is the only way to save your money. Making money is depends on your luck.

correct never do that yolo bets will only lead you to lose your bankroll whatever set up you use even that's already 92% chances the 8% can still lead you losing that particular attempt inside gambling there's no guarantee its all about luck but if you have a big nerve and you are risk taker with the money you can afford to lose why not, its up to you.

Exactly. I've seen people complaining about losing 2 times in row with 98% winning chance, saying the site is rigged etc. But what about winning two times in a row with 1% winning chance? The odds of that happening are even smaller, but still it happens, happened to me on PrimeDice. I was betting manually and reflexively hit the button one more time after win and to my surprise it was also a winning roll.

Altough you set the chance of winning to 99%, you still have sane chance to lose that's way only make you can play more longer. did you ever hear some people get lose when they rise the value of bet.

There's still have a chance you will lose, no matter after win or lose, but with higher win chance it will increase a possibility of your roll number hit the target (specific number like >50).
You can do all in one if you can afford to lose.

I think you should use "goal amount" and "limit amount". Goal amount means your profit amount, how much you want to reach the goal amount in your schedule gameplay (don't play greedy). Limit amount is the fund which you can afford to lose (again, don't play greedy).
That's will help you to manage your gambling activity.

Well, let's do the maths here.

The odds of losing on the next roll is still 8%, because each roll is independent.

But if you look at it before you do the rolls, then two L's next to each other has a probability of 0.64%. However, if you have already hit a L on 92%, you can't say that the next roll I do only has a 0.64% chance of losing. It still has a 8% chance of losing.

It is fairly common for 3 reds or even 4, 5 reds to occur on 92%.

In the end it doesn't matter because the house will always win. Some day your luck will run out, and you hit on the house edge.

The best strategy is your success. It seems to me that math will not help you to win. People who say that know a good strategy usually always lose.

Already tried this before but still higher chance to lose all of your capital.. better to use other way or default odds instead than choosing high chances.. that actually you will regret in the end.. i tested it many times and also tried martingale with this set of odds.
Result lose and low maximum profit after you reach the maximum you will experience of lose streak.

Rolling dice with 92 winning is same as that you play sports gambling in which you place bets when the odds are 1.05. The profiting depends on the amount we place , here too the luck determines the result. There are are users who have lost even after placing at such low odds.

Your chance of winning does not increase at all when you hit a red streak of something. Instead it stays the same.

So based on that your method is already not working.

This is the famous gambler's fallacy. Gamblers tend to think that they are able to beat the house because after each loss their chance of winning rises. But that is mathematically not true because each event is independent of what happened before that.

But prerolls i think might be helpful because even though it does not change the rolls after it, you'll still save some satoshis that you may have bet on that particular losing bet because it is the exact same seeds.

Good luck!

Dice rolls doesn't have a "memory". The change to lose it immediately after you've already lost a roll are... exactly the same in any other roll. Winning or losing previous rolls does not affect the results in future rolls.

Its the same principle in Roulette or any other game of pure chance. House edge is a house edge. Rolls, spins, black/red, etc every single one is individual in matter of changes.

that's it, we don't even know what would be the result from your next roll, even you place 92% chances to win as we all knew that dice games really needed pure luck in order to win, i already have some bad experience using some strategy like martingales and changing your chances between those high chances to win but in the end still nothing just continue losing, so i give it up.

That does not matter because you are now risking more than a lot to win very little. It also does not take away the edge if the dice site. It is always there no matter what strategy you try to use. It would be better to win by 50% and control the amount of bets depending if you are winning or losing.

You are totally right as this is exactly what is happened to me many times, been there, experienced this.

Op's strategy is not viable at all it is just biased concept based on fake idea that he can win 9-11 times before he finally lose.
It is not true. Every dice roll is calculated separately and should be treated as such.

I can only suggest if Op wants 'safer' bets with low profit, then he should focus on sport betting with odds lower than 1.10.
Sure it is still gambling, but I feel it is less merciless than dice.

Even I, experienced 2x lose on 90+ winning percentage which means theres no sure to win constantly on high rates but for op he does mentioned 9-11 wins and i can say its possible but wont be maintained in longer runs because loses will surely come out in no time.Sports and dice are on different story they might both gambling game but differ on winning chances.

i've already tried 92% winning chance and some time still ge losing streak 2 - 3 time lose before can get back my capital. there is no strategy, all is pure from luck and don't ever feel too confident with strategy, when you lose it will be hurt  ;D

92% chance to pass and 8% chance to fail. So two rolls has a 16% chance to fail. So it is 16% to fail twice. It doesn't matter if you use 50/50 or even 92% it is the same amount to win and chance to win.

Thank you all for your inputs guys and yes it does make sense that even if you change the settings to 92% chance of winning there is still 8% chance of losing. The result of my 1st roll does not dictate or further improve my chances of winning on my 2nd or 3rd roll. It's 92% chance of winning on the first roll, its 92% chance of winning on the 2nd roll same with 3rd roll.

Another thing that I realized is that when I lose, I have to win 14 times in a row to recover the loss that I made based on the 1000 Satoshis bet with 76 Satoshis profit please correct me if i'm wrong on my calculation.

Calculations were right therefore when you lose up 2x in a row then you will need to win 24 straight without any lose to cover up or break even the loses which is nearly imposible to happen which means even on higher chance percentage chances of your lose will stack up until comes to a point on where you keep playing to chase your lose which do happen on most gambler.

I ever been lost twice a streak by setting the chance to win 90% so the chance of losing streak remains. I think the way it was not worth besides it does not deny losing streak but it also profit is not compatible with the capital loss when you lose.

That is possible because it is solely based on probability and regardless of the winning chance you put, losing streak could happen and sometimes we get frustrated when that occurs. I would also suggest to think of the probability than the luck that we might have in gambling since probability are more accurate than luck itself, that way we will not make any experiment that would not give us a good chance of winning.

You have just 8% of lossing in the next bet after losing an one.But this strategy will never get you to winning even a small amount,you will just end up losing all you capital.You could just play at 90% then play at max after losing 3 events in a row,this will pretty guarantee some winnings for you

i mostly try the reverse strategy meaning i have about a 92% chance of losing and 8% chance of win or a bit higher sometimes. and that way i can bet with faucet and if i get lucky i can earn a good amount of bitcoin and then move on from there.

although this strategy of yours seems to take it one step further. although i can't find any logic of why you should win after a loss but i think i will give it a try and then report back here. maybe i win something good.

Good for you that you already realized about that. It's pretty obvious that every roll will give you a RANDOM result. If you win twice or more in a row today, it doesn't mean that you'll get same result later on. Same with your losses.

That's why sometimes (or should I say most of the times?) people lose consecutively because they want to recover their losses which needs XX number of wins.

You do not get it. The strategy is not in whether you win or you lose or at what settings you put the dice game. It is on what bet sizing strategies you use. It is better to bet for something at 50% - 55% and win an amount that is close to your bet. You are risking the right amount for the right amount of winnings.

This game is fully dependent on luck and all these probabilities very difficult analysis and guess accurately. So dice game is not for making a profit but it is good for have some fun during your free time. Sometimes one can get continuous losses even with 99% winning option as well so don't waste time in analysing this game.

He needs to be realistic here and do overthink it, the chances on winning is lower compared to the house and if you think only on that reality there is no effort you will waste just to have a winning method. Everything you do will only result to nothing as no method would last, just be happy when you are lucky sometimes, that is the norms in gambling.

Exactly. I have seen that happen before.
You won't make too much betting at that probability to win on each roll. It would just cancel each other out once you get a bad roll within those 9-11 rolls anyways so you won't get anywhere.

Call it luck or whatever you want but it is all about the probabilities. As stated in my previous post above, your strategy should revolve around the sizing of your bets and not by the number of times you think you are going to win.

We also have to remember that the higher the chance of winning the lower the multiplier for the winnings. The bad thing about it is that you are risking a good amount of bitcoins just to win a few satoshis if you are betting on 90%+. But the good thing about this is that you can just play a few games with like a lot of bitcoins and just hope for the best. Then probably you can just play with the winnings you got.

The Dice game have a very less winning percentage, so for this, i don't like to put my money in risk, and I don't like to waste my time to make strategies for this game. If I have more free time, I will play this game. And I will play only how much I can afford, because I know in dice game only investment here no returns.

I don't think that it ill work, as dice rolls are luck based, so there are no strategy at all, you just have to be lucky to win. Just because you tired it few times and won small amount, it doesn't mean that you will win that in future too. Used this high chance you earn tiny profit, but if you lose you lose a lot, and it takes many wins to win back what you lost, while sometimes you get 2 or even 3 loses in row.

Well if you are really talking about gambling games that only rely on chance or luck, then there is really no strategy to it. It's just you win it or you lose you that all you can do about it. Next is that at the set high chance to win there is a higher chances that they will lose because the returns on higher chances of winning means they will have a lower payout. If they lose, they lose big time and if they win they just win pennies and dimes.

Dice game is purely based on luck. 8% chance of losing is still a big risk to take. If you are a long time dice game bettor, You will know that this strategy will work for a certain extent, then once you loss 2-3x then your bankroll is near empty. But if you got lucky and you hit a good streak, then you are hit by 1 loss, then stop, change strategy. Because you might end up losing all your bankroll with this.

That is indeed the fact as you wont be winning with a single trick for too long and it all depends on how lucky you are,there are times when you can win a couple of bitcoin in a short amount of period and then there are times when you loose the coins in a short amount of time and 92% chances are more risky according to me as more you play the chances of busting are more.

people too greedy to put that kind high winning percentage , not because confident. they think with higher winning percentage would save their ass from the loss. it's same actually in the end , house edge always against any kind player , any kind winning chance. really better to put 50/50 chance rather than high chance it's totally destroy anyone mentality once you get lost especially a losing streaks.

i came back to report:
i tried the strategy and it works and it seems like it is working well enough. i have made some bets with this strategy and also won when i was supposed to win.

but i have to say i have a bad feeling that this is one of those strategies that is working until it doesn't :D
which means i probably won't use this much because i am afraid of losing big.

Many people use martingale strategy in dice games, and chance to lose there is 0.1% Or even less, depends on what bet gambler makes every roll. And point is, that people lose even with chance as low as that, so i'm not surprised at all that people can lose with 8% chance. If they think there are some kind of strategy they just should bet all of their bitcoins on 50/50 and they will see they won or not, this way they will save time