Bitcoin Forum

http://blockchained.com/chart_large_log.png

Look at that. Every single time the price goes above the mining power on this chart, a correction happens. Every single time we are below the mining power on this chart, we head down to the dotted line and bounce back up to the mining power. According to this, we "should" be at $260 right now as a high and $40 right now as a low. Okay, I know thats sort of a ridiculous range, but still.

Thinking about this logically, this makes sense. The computing power behind Bitcoin is what makes the transactions secure. Could this mean that ASICs could yield increased volatility for a period until the floor has a chance to catch up?

Very interesting, I haven't seen this chart before. Seems to be positive for the long term.

According to this, though, once ASICs hit the market, the price is going to tank while the difficulty skyrockets, breaking your chart. Would that be right?

Really random prediction, but I predict that the mining power forms a wedge around 10.  If that wedge breaks to the upside, that could potentially be more bullish than any price wedge since miners are what ultimately give bitcoin its value.

So.. What's the dotted line?

The two axes have completely different units. They cross simply because they are plotted that way. Nothing more, nothing less.

"since miners are what ultimately give bitcoin its value."

False, belief that you can use them later for goods and services is what gives it its value.

You're mistaking correlation for causation. They are both on similar upward angles but BTC corrects for other reasons.

And you can only use them for goods and services if there is someone there making the transaction work, i.e, miners.


It corrects for other reasons, but too far up will cause either (A) all the miners to start selling everything they get driving the price down or (B) people to begin to worry about such a vast amount of money being secured only by the "limited amount of miners." The fact of the matter is that a higher difficulty and more miners removes a huge downward pressure on Bitcoin.

That's how translations are processed but that isn't what makes a bitcoin valuable.

Sure an increase in difficulty makes it harder for an attacker so people may have more faith that their bitcoins will still be able to purchase goods and services in the future.

Explain your reasoning. Why will ASICs tank the price?

I don't believe they will, that's just what this chart seems to predict, which also breaks its reliability as a lagging indicator of price.

It's a log chart, and it's a straight line roughly through the price.  I'd guess it's a simple exponential fit of price data.

In what way does this chart predict that?

No it doesn't, it predicts the exact opposite.

Difficulty -> UP so Mining Factor -> Down so in order for mining factor to re-equalize price would need to go up.

Or, on the top chart, total hashing power goes up so higher ceiling for price.

the relationship is opposite, as price goes up difficulty goes up with it, difficulty doesn't drive price.

if anything miners have more of an incentive to hold and mine more if price is driving up.

this also doesn't explain the other crashes that occurred in between the 2 large ones.

It doesn't predict 100% of graphs, but it predicts some graphs with (at least using historical data) 100% accuracy.

I have no idea what you are trying to say in the latter part.

Good and obvious point that bears repetition.

+1

This.