Bitcoin Forum

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

A "good prediction" could be called "an educated guess". The only way to achieve this is by looking for patterns in related, future indications and historical data. For example, if you know that hedge funds are trying to get bitcoin traded like any other commodity, it means that it will have more mainstream exposure and may have a whole new audience that will push the price up.

Unlike equities, there is no fundamental analysis that can be done in the crypto space.
The only thing you can do is technical analysis, looking for patterns in the price chart.

I use my common sense to make a good prediction.

Just think about the fundamentals and the technicals and take a guess. I think that some coins will pump depending on the total supply, the current price and past performance, and the fundamentals and possible innovating selling points.

This is why coins like POSW (poswallet) are a great gamble to hold for a couple months, I think those are the type of  coins that can easily pump to $1+.

I think the first is that we need to monitor the market and read the news about coins we need to find out. I usually look for information from forums and sites about altcoin, then the twitter, twitter of the altcoin where there is quite a lot of information. Sometimes the market will have the pump, we can not rely too much on information, we need to follow the trend of the market. My success rate is not too high but just enough to make a profit, about 60-70% is predicted to be true.

In trading there is nothing like " Good prediction" because if you want to predict for and assets in my opinion it turned to gambling or religion. But we should not undermined the nature of trading forex and crypto currencies of risk and great both positive and negative rewards. What I do to analysis how a commodity, stock, currencies pairs and altcoins trading is focus on the news and events that move there price and used pin bar for entries and exists.

How do you really do technical analysis just by looking at the price chart.Is there any place where i can learn those things,what i usually do is,i would keep in contact with a coins specific slack channel and look for their developments and once a positive news is heard i would purchase the coin and wait for the right time to book my profit.

If you are diligent article reader, you can predict 30-40% accurately.
If you are stock investor along with above, you can predict 60-70% accurately.
If you love stats and charts and can make fruit out of it, you can predict 70-80% accurately.
For rest 20%, you need to have a time machine atleast to predict rightly because bitcoin prices have no formula but a speculation effect.

A good prediction is as a result of an informed decision, simple as that.

there are many credible news site this time around that you can rely on for some valuable market indicators which you could use and i wouldn't call it  scientifically proven

success rate, well i call it a 50-50 chance there is no guarantee it will come true

That is my experience too. I know some patterns, which are usually true. I heard them from friends who have experience in the investment field. What is the best source to explore these patterns? Can you recommend any list or overview with all patterns?


Thank you for the probability overview! What makes my prediction better if I am a stock investor? What do stock investors know what others not?

Good predicrion maybe based on different factors that every coins current status, demands, supplies , popularity  etc.. it may also be based in an expert opinion.. if someone  have experience enough to predict then they can predict more accurate  than others...

Technical analysis can be only viable in certain cases, mostly because technical indicators are too slow to evaluate rapidly changing crypto market - there is too much lag in price and volume.
RSI, MACD, OBV all lags. At the time RSI will generate good buy signal price might be pumped to the moon and back.

The purest signal is the PRICE. Other useful indicators are trend lines, candle and chart patterns and resistance zones. That is basically all you need.

Just by gathering all possible informations whether positive or negative based on technical analysis and have some fearless wild proofs as backup to their claims.

Not an assurance though that we will make a successful trade out of it but that is a good factor to considered in order to help us analyze the current price situation and for our future trading moves whether to buy or to sell. Overall, it's a matter of gambling with sense why we will gambled it. That is the risk here, we all don't know what will happen to a certain coin. For this, make sure our common sense will run on a road where lots of real basis are there rather than playing along with the troll speculations.

To make a good prediction it based on many factors like current status, demands, and based on popularity. If experienced person can predict? Or predict more accurate then she/he have a good judgement or prediction about it. And as long as they have a wildproofsas backup of their claims.

Im not good at predicting  or guessing on what will happened in a certain thing. I only read news online everyday to keep me updated ,much better than predicting in your own,it will sometimes end in a wrong way.

The main concern is > no one can predict it precisely but maybe  80%-90% accurately​.
Usually, bitcoin and altcoins driven by speculation and good news about development which affected the price.
Read a lot of opinion from others in and out (side) of this forum that you need to gather all information regarding that thing and you can predict it at least 50-60%, but don't put all eggs in one basket. Working in a team is better than just yourself.

I'm also not so good in a prediction of any cryptocurrencies prices. But what I do is I will buy these cryptocurrencies in small quantities whenever I got some funds and waited for long to sell at higher prices. Until now most of the cryptocurrencies I purchased and hold gave me good profits, but for some coins, I waited for long to sell at a profit, but that is the only way we can make a profit from these cryptocurrencies. I don't know when and how these prices are going up and what triggers the demand for these cryptocurrencies yet.

Making a better prediction is simply not possible even when the price is experiencing a stabilized growth. Everything happens unexpected with the cryptocurrency network. Prediction will be effective on a continued study of price chart along with the reason behind the ups and downs in the chart.

Crypto is a based on market demands, is to make a good prediction you need to follow the trend and see the updated news where the investor interested, so in order to make a good prediction you need to learn the chart and follow the trend when you want to buy see the exchange rate, if there are a lot of people buy then you can try to buy

In implementing that kind of technical analysis, it is a combination of using our mind or common sense. This is just of my point of view, If you see that the volume market become at ease for a couple of weeks or month, that coins has a good future, and the always at ease too going up the value, and more investors coming unto it something like that.

One approach:
- Keeping eye on market proceedings, new trends.
- Understand why price is hiking or plunging. Reading forum or cryptosites usually helps in understanding this.
- cryptoworld(btc) is very volalite and vulnerable to the FUD. Thus any news of any approval or rejection or acceptance affects bitcoin price to great extent.
- Monitoring bitcoin or crypto forums to check what is going on.

Above is technical approach or educated guess. There another approach (no joke or pun intended):
- Contact fortune-tellers and get there guidance(? ;))
- Learn astrology, tarrot-card reading, etc etc and predict changes yourself.
- Look for signs from Universe

There are people who go by technical approach and other by emotional(faith) approach. Decide which suits better.

Everyone has different ways of predicting, and of course I also have it. I can not explain in detail, because I am confused to explain it from where. But, in essence, you should only look at the price in the previous day or week and target that the price will rise or fall to your predictions.

I trust intuition more, because I think it is impossible to constantly make unerring predictions based only on analysis.

The two different ways of better prediction is quoted clearly. In reality the second way cannot be possible with every user, because only few believe on fortune tellers and astrology. Having a close observation over the entire cryptocurrency market and learning more about the things behind fall and rise is the better way to predict and get the best profit.

Your prediction not 100% correct (simple example is just look at tipster thread, not all of their pick are correct) as well with trading because peoples seems lovely to spread FUD to manipulate the market and make the price unnaturally dropped or pumped.
Check the Ann thread and see what's going on there is a way to see an updated news about this as well with some progress to make stable project.

As far as I know there is no scientifically proven formula to make predictions 100% true, but there are a lot of methods to increase the probability of the right prediction. But using those methods you should always remember that no way you are safe from failing with them.

No one can make accurate predictions, even if he has a lot of experience and a lot of experience, this is always a risk.

although it is very difficult to predict about the price of bitcoin. but still if a person have good information about bitcoin and he is also studying continuously about bitcoin then you ca really predict about bitcoin and some time your prediction can be prove as correct. but for that you need to collect information about bitcoin from different sources and to study the market on regular bases. so that you can get updates about bitcoin from time to time.

Yeah right, success is when our predictions come true or at least our predictions are close to reality, it will make happy. But the fact that predictions are made do not always match the reality even different, let alone predict the bitcoin prices are very volatile and not enough to see the news. But maybe to be able to predict well we should see the market and news, it will help but not much because what I previously said bitcoin price is very volatile so difficult to predict. Moreover, predicting the long term, it is difficult to do in my opinion.

Just always try to keep your eyes on the latest update from the bitcoin news. I can say it will give you a clue about what will being the trend for the bitcoin market. I don't need forula or anything. But just try to learn more about where the trend will go.

No one is good at predicting or guessing, what will happen to his fore. including me,
But before I predict anything it's good I do the analysis first, by reading the news online every day, which makes me always update the news, much better than we predict it ourselves, which will end with a mistake.

Reading news and keeping updated in online blogs, exchanges and watching the prediction of the experts is a big help for us to make a good prediction. Sometimes, it is really a matter of trust with our conviction but of course with the help of experts, I just trust them and rely on them 80%, and so far I don't feel any regrets as of today.

To make a great prediction about bitcointalk.org, one must know the factors that can make the crypto currency go either up or down. When you know such things you can easily predict what's going to happen.

We must be aware that there is not a thing that can guarantee to always profit, though we learn all the techniques, but I'm sure it will not guarantee a 100% always profit, the best way is to often monitors so that when get the profit.

THe first is that we need to monitor the market and read the news about coins we need to find out. I usually look for information from forums and sites about altcoin, then the twitter, twitter of the altcoin where there is quite a lot of information. Sometimes the market will have the pump, we can not rely too much on information, we need to follow the trend of the market. And some luck too..

Making a good prediction is not guessing at something, it is establishing all possibilities and assigning them a value based on data.

Example.

Starting a small business. Data exists that 80%+ of small businesses fail within the first year. A good prediction to make is that your business will fail within the first year, the super majority do so you should assume you will. Now that you know that, you can research why businesses fail so much and try to do better.

The best prediction is always not existing and not present. All prediction are just based on opinions and is far from the truth but since there are only two predictions just like there are two side of the coins yo just need to choose based on your belief. For the group who believe that bitcoin will have a meltdown they placed these facts:

1. Blocksize problem
2. Existence of ransomware
3. Hackers and scammer
4. Higher fees
5. Slow confirmation
6. Rapid volatility and bubble

But the group that predicts that bitcoin will soar up high and will be stronger than ever and has a skyrocket value has this views:

1. Increased number of users
2. Increased demand which turns to increased in value
3. Adoption of countries such as Japan and Australia
4. They love bitcoins.

Good day!

Making a good prediction is tantamount to making a good inference out of something that has long been conceptualized through gathering of data whilst relating it to current events. As a matter of data analysis, you have to study on why there were sudden increase or decrease in value and relate it to the factors that cause such on Bitcoins. On the other hand, as a matter of dealing with the present times, you have to study on why Bitcoin's value spikes up or devalues further. In doing all these studies, you have to learn to plot any changes and as well as its corresponding dates. By then, you will have an accurate data to use to predict future success rates. Comparison and contrast is key.   

there isn't really any formula or any easy way to say if (this + that) then (price rise) and if (these + those) then (price drop).
but there are many things to consider.

i like starting with some technical analysis, i am still learning it but it can tell you that it is helpful to know it than not know it.

then in this market usually we should follow the news. specially in altcoins. they only move with hype aka news about them. the news doesn't have to even be true. for example we saw recently that ethereum got pumped for another time with a fake news about etf!

I've never found a technical analysis to be very effective with Bitcoin unless it is based on watching macro trends and not anything shorter, with next to no influencing factors from the outside.

News seems to have way too big of a role within cryptos and any new article can throw the price into the green or red at the drop of a hat, and that's something that I just really don't like. The market volatility is fine, but the influence news has (with or without evidence) is just something I don't appreciate in the slightest.

Yes, but still taking into account the critical factors we can make a more or less accurate prediction. For example, if government of a big country announces its recognition of certain cryptocurrencies we can expect that those cryptocurrencies will rise in value in the nearest future.

That types of announcements are very rare but most powerful to impact in larger scale. Hence obviously everyone will be taking them into consideration for predicting price movements of crypto currencies. Honestly I'm not believing in to following news for predicting about the future of crypto currencies.

Because I am already comfortable with my technical analysis as it is much easier to do everyday regardless of how extremely markets are trading.

i just follow the demand, and if the value stay for a very long time at the same price you know that a pump or an increase is coming, you know that the bottom is touched

but you will never know how high that increase will go, also following the good news help in bitcoin, or any alt, they are a good indicators for an imminent pump the same for bad news and a dump

If we know the secret to this then everyone will be rich but the issue is that most of the decisions are just based on guesses which is mostly influenced by factors outside the decision maker itself. And the moment the decision is made the next thing is to wait whether it will worth it or a waste of time and resources the moment it does we are happy if it does not, we move on to the next decision and the cycle continues.

Announcements are completely different from prediction because predictions are completely based on the knowledge you have on the cryptos. Sometimes our predictions will go wrong because cryptos price raise are based on the developments made by the company and people who are actively supporting it.

Having a good prediction is looking for the obvious first like in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency you must know what's dominating and what can hinder their dominance for example in Bitcoin the price can be affected by news about banning it or anything about its legality, the price can be affected in a bad way. Basically anything from economics to news can help you have an accurate prediction.

Understanding the cryptocurrency market at a macroeconomic level. Is the money going into Bitcoin right now, or away and into Altcoins? Take into account the fundamentals of the currency and whether its pumping season or not and your halfway there.Technical analysis and fib retracements usually help but can never gaurantee the expected outcome.

Usually I will read the news or find information about bitcoin before i make my own predictions.

The good predictor is one who are in touch with market that what is the trend going in market and which currency is at the top, and which current has potential to reach top position in the market. And read opinions of different people and then make your decision.

This is one of the very basic and essential to understand first the product and its characteristics and then knowing which news is important and relevant which could drive the price of bitcoin up and down. There would be many news but not all are important in perspective where price of bitcoin could significantly move. Also global news and local news with good technical analysis of price charts will help you more to derive the price and its future value.

Sometimes I don't trust even myself and make a random decision.

Usually in predicting a future value of a coins, what is available tool used is the Technical analysis. In technical analysis, you have to analyses the previous trades with its graphs because as they say "history repeats itself" meaning previous rally,pump etc means to be repeated. There is also the fundamental analysis as a tool. Both of this can be an aid to make prediction or assumption and can be use in making decisions.

Its not possible to make an accurate prediction and anyone who does make a good prediction is just lucky and could never repeat that success. As they say even a broken watch is right twice a day.

Exactly, a prediction can never be actually 100% right because there is no way to know exactly all the factors that account for BTC's price change, you might know few things here and there and make your prediction based on that(mostly by being informed of the news) but that will not guarantee a correct prediction.

well you're bith right that there's no way we can make a perfect prediction though experiences can make you at least have a decent one. once you've already seen a lot about how alt coins move, you can make a smart prediction based on past trades that most of the time can be a profitable one.

A person would probably need inside sources at banks, the SEC, bitcoin unlimited and governments around the world to make an informed prediction.

They would need to know weeks or months in advance that japan, russia and australia were planning to accept bitcoin/crypto as legitimate currency. They would need to know what bitcoin unlimited and the SEC have planned. As well as other inside info that hasn't come into play with bitcoin's price recently but may make a difference in the future.

There are big questions revolving around the united states being $20 trillion in debt and various "de-dollarization" plans to cope with the fallout of worse case scenarios relating to the us dollar functioning as the "reserve currency" of many nations, which must also be answered.

If you are talking about cryptos with Marketcap under $2 million you are absolutely right because it is feasible for developers to pump such a coin. But but dealing with cryptos like Ripple and Ethereum it's almost absolutely impossible to manipulate them.

There are only two things taken for granted in the live. Death and taxes.

In the bitcoin world only two things are certain. So you certainly can bet on those two things:

1. When bitcoin price rise too much, it must fall and vice versa, when bitcoin price fall too much it must bounce back. The matter of how to define "too much" is a matter of taste.

2. Most likely bitcoin will rise as its proven time and time again.

Other than that the RSI might help, fibonacci retracement and other analitical tools.

Having a good source of knowledge about anything you  go into specially when it involves money through it.You can make good predictions about any market or anything by having good knowledge source and a brokers info

To make good predictions you should monitor the markets and read the charts carefully, I also follow trading signals from experienced traders. I managed to make profit in several altcoins and missed out some opportunities.

For me I'm not using a formula to solve my prediction instead I learn, read and get more information on w hat happen in today's market. Actually I depend the bitcoin market in our investors, the pump and dump is based in investor if they buy or sell it. If I read and get fact about country who invest bitcoin I have a proven that our bitcoin is based on the investor.

To make a strong information, being socialize and updated not only in our country but around the world will proved that our prediction will happen.

Prediction is always there because on the field of trading we do really make assumptions and speculations on where the price would go but these kind of prediction would give high probability if we do make use of some tools either Technical analysis or Fundamentals.This will surely effective to put it up on your predictions because we can able to draw or figure it out when we do apply it.

not only the market and chart but we must consider about the upcoming news of bitcoin. I can say it gives an affect to the market. FOMO by the traders or holders caused by the news. It can be determined as important aspect.

Educate yourself and do a lot research, that is where success lies. A great mentor once said, google everything. Learn how to read charts so you would know which coins would pump up this day and the like. Never stop learning if you want to be successful in trading.

If you're asking how to make a good prediction from a market point of view.

That involves market basics and the different methods people use to call tops/bottoms of trends, identify overvalued and undervalued assets, etc.

There are a lot of different techniques and methods people use. "Technical analysis".

In case of bitcoin I often wait for a good news and the news especially from any official place So I invest my money in bitcoin to buy more and with that news the investors increase up and the price of it increase up more higher. For other coins I often look at the positive step from the developers as with their positive steps the coin will get the strength and the demand will increase and the price will increase.

For you to have the nearly 100% prediction which is not far from reality, you should do more research and be always up to date with bitcoin currency market status. Searching at search engines could help you a lot to be informative and well equipped with the better predictions. Lack of exact informations could result to poor predictions and possibly only a speculations to come in a certain readers understanding. You might mislead someones idea on bitcoin and not giving him/her enough realization beyond digital currency world.

make good prediction this need a lot of research and actual results of the market status and this will be the base of the prediction.
for me good prediction is like a lucky guess because we don't know if that prediction will show positive or negative result.
just like bitcoin I read some prediction of it in the past years and now it is positive the bitcoin is now global.

Thank you for your answers! I will review them and return to this question later. I realized I cannot keep tracks of so many input at the same time. I am developing a prediction market, that is why I asked. But firstly, I am occupied with the technical basics (layering, initializing developer team...etc).