Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: InMotion on April 30, 2013, 01:40:40 PM



Title: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: InMotion on April 30, 2013, 01:40:40 PM
Are you frustrated by this picture?

https://i.imgur.com/WigAoYH.png

Don't be! According to this article (http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130425/srep01684/full/srep01684.html), decreasing search volume means market stability. Scientists actually used this method to buy/sell stock and forecast bulls/bears behaviour of whole stock market. What do you think?


Title: Re: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on April 30, 2013, 01:59:13 PM
/r/Bitcoin users (http://stattit.com/r/bitcoin/) are also stagnant. I think it's just the psychological burnout after the bubble-and-crash. Growth went ballistic for a while and is now reverting to the exponential mean, which means a slowdown where excitement dips. The spurts and lulls even out into normal exponential growth.

This may not last long enough to actually revert before the next rise, though.


Title: Re: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: BubbleBoy on April 30, 2013, 02:57:26 PM
Quote
decreasing search volume means market stability.

That may be true in a market driven by fundamentals, not hype. Compared to it's fundamental current use for drugs, donations, bitpay etc. Bitcoin is overvalued 100x-1000x.

For Bitcoin there is no "stability", the most stable 6 month period had about 50% swings. What's true for any bubble is true for bitcoin: when the hypemachine stops and greater fools supply dwindles, the price goes down.

I'm shorting and hopping a new bubble does not explode in the next months. It's a major gamble tough, with bitcoin it always is. I have a cash buffer up to 250$, if price goes higher I'm loosing my shorts.


Title: Re: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: N12 on April 30, 2013, 02:58:27 PM
Quote
decreasing search volume means market stability.

That may be true in a market driven by fundamentals, not hype. Compared to it's fundamental use as a currency for drugs, donations, bitpay etc. Bitcoin is overvalued 100x-1000x.

For Bitcoin there is no "stability", the most stable 6 month period had about 50% swings. What's true for any bubble is true for bitcoin: when the hypemachine stops and greater fools supply dwindles, the price goes down.

I'm shorting and hopping a new bubble does not explode in the next months. It's a major gamble tough, with bitcoin it always is. I have a cash buffer up to 250$, after which I'm loosing my shorts.
Where are you shorting?


Title: Re: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: lebing on April 30, 2013, 03:01:29 PM
Quote
decreasing search volume means market stability.

That may be true in a market driven by fundamentals, not hype. Compared to it's fundamental use as a currency for drugs, donations, bitpay etc. Bitcoin is overvalued 100x-1000x.

For Bitcoin there is no "stability", the most stable 6 month period had about 50% swings. What's true for any bubble is true for bitcoin: when the hypemachine stops and greater fools supply dwindles, the price goes down.

I'm shorting and hopping a new bubble does not explode in the next months. It's a major gamble tough, with bitcoin it always is. I have a cash buffer up to 250$, if price goes higher I'm loosing my shorts.

Good luck with that short lol.


Title: Re: Google Trends lower? It's a good thing!
Post by: ElectricMucus on April 30, 2013, 03:12:50 PM
lets recap:

some smaller exchanges fucked up
banks starting to refuse business with exchanges
press interest depreciating
SR under sustained attack
gox still goxxing

So all in all price has decoupled from fundamentals and the suckers rally lost momentum. A good thing! :
LOL :D