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Title: What do you see here? Post by: chiropteran on April 30, 2013, 01:41:33 PM I've noticed an interesting thing. Instead of looking at hourly or daily charts, look at the weekly average chart.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=T&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0& The spike and crash doesn't look so big, does it? It looks a lot more like a tiny dip and then continued growth. I wonder where we go from here? Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: thepiratetrader on April 30, 2013, 02:32:00 PM That's not really weekly vs. daily... just a matter of log vs. algorithmic scale.
Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: ElectricMucus on April 30, 2013, 02:35:04 PM I see a somewhat sustainable uptrend from $2 to $13
Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: chiropteran on April 30, 2013, 02:41:18 PM That's not really weekly vs. daily... just a matter of log vs. algorithmic scale. No, it's really not. Here is the same thing without log scale- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=Weekly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=T&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0& Compare to 6-hour chart- http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=6-hour&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=T&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0& I'm just pointing out that if you ignore the brief spikes and dips and focus on the weekly averages, it looks a lot more like steady growth. Sometimes when you look too close you miss the details. Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: fiaskow on April 30, 2013, 02:45:24 PM It really not comparable. The weekly chart is throwing away important information because its too granular. Don't look for something that fits your idea of what the trends should be because you'll invariably find something that fits it.
Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: chiropteran on April 30, 2013, 02:48:27 PM It really not comparable. The weekly chart is throwing away important information because its too granular. Don't look for something that fits your idea of what the trends should be because you'll invariably find something that fits it. It really doesn't. The weekly average is still directly affected by the spikes and the crashes. No data is "thrown out". The reason it looks fairly smooth and less spike is because that is what the average value actually really looks like. As a rational investor, I don't assume I can actually predict the peak of a bubble or the bottom of a crash. Anyone who can do such can make arbitrarily as much money as they want so it's all irrelevant if you can. If you can't though, you will be playing based on the averages. A weekly average is perfectly valid if you aren't day-trading. Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: samson on April 30, 2013, 02:52:03 PM I see a somewhat sustainable uptrend from $2 to $13 Yes, that appeared to happen very quickly. I wonder if it will retrace at some point. Title: Re: What do you see here? Post by: lebing on April 30, 2013, 02:58:12 PM As a rational investor, I don't assume I can actually predict the peak of a bubble or the bottom of a crash. Anyone who can do such can make arbitrarily as much money as they want so it's all irrelevant if you can. If you can't though, you will be playing based on the averages. A weekly average is perfectly valid if you aren't day-trading. Bingo. |
