Bitcoin Forum

watch as it starts now!!! :o

was just 142 now 139....now 138 yep down we go

interesting, how the hell do you speculate? don't answer that, I would never get it.

Personally I would like it to stay low for a while. Still working on mining my first coin. Should be sometime this evening I hope.

I think this could still go either way. We could resume the upwards trend from the last days or slide down to 120 to 130 in several waves over the next days.

edit: the next hour or so is critical. if we go down, this is probably part of a larger corrective wave pattern which will continue for a few days, if we go up, this was just a smaller corrective wave to the upwards trend.

What's your rationale for that prediction?

Elliott Waves.
https://i.imgur.com/p0LLtjA.png
I have to correct myself on the timespan, though. This is going a little faster than I thought. At this pace, it will be over today.

130 is still ok

129.13 and falling.

Also known as idiot waves?

This is the usual slide on holidays/weekends.
It is indeed down now to 130 already.
Are you confident that it will go to 120?

See bottom left part of chart

Seems quite likely to me that we will see 121-123. But honestly, the 125 support could also be the end. What's more important, is that the last wave should consist of a five wave pattern, which means that after the next small upward movement, the following slide should be the last (of this pattern, what happens then depends on the larger scale. But I assume we won't drop further down, for now).

Missed that part :)

Just curious as to why you feel it is going to fall?  Thanks!

Elliott Waves are just too complex and subjective. Technical analysis is all about convincing people to buy and sell at given moments: there is no future to predict, only human decisions of traders. Make it complex and traders won't understand it, therefore won't follow it. Technical analysis should be simple: trends and support/resistance lines plus some technical patterns.

Elliott waves are not about convincing all the traders, they are trying to predict the whole crowd psychology. Whether they are effective or not is another discussion, though

I don't buy the "order of things" theory, like Finobacci, etc. Technical analysis can be effective because traders with big pockets understand it and believe it will be effective.

patterns....and i have seen this movie before. but i called it :P    it went down farther than i thought it would though. haha.


prob go to just above 100 and bounce up big. like to 150 again.

sr IS hurting bitcoins. make no mistake

well this is getting interesting, 106 low so far :D
definitely further down than anticipated, but all in one continuous movement. I'm with thetimeisnow on this one, hit 100 support and bounce back up. then wild swings for a while.

That was a pretty good prediction  :)

thanks my man  :D

Nice call...  IMO recent selling is on high volume with slow accumulation back up...  Old skoolers are cashing out...   ;)

ok .... one more prediction. the current bounce is a dead cat bounce it will fall again and touch 101.10 but not lower. masive support at 101. the fake wall at 160.00 at bitstamp will move onec we see it drop hard. once we see this double dip we will see a nice rise to 130. then a few sell offs but ultamatly they will be bear traps and the price will be at 150 once s

 is up and running again
in no time.





edit woops i ment wall at 106...not 160 my bad

ya and the fear of it oing below 100 soon. your prob right. the ones that have held for so long are about to sell out

bitcoin channel seems to think its headed to 70

I'll throw my bet in here, and say it bottoms within a few days at $95.

nah gonna rise to $200 within the next week

It doesn't matter the price. It matters acceptance of it for payments and currency functions. VC's are looking at this so it will keep going. Don't look at the price unless you are speculating and then you should go long IMO.

I like what your style. but soooo much support and walls at 100. of cores they could move but i bet they will stay. if sr is down and the price does not drop below 100 i think that BTC is incredibly strong. to be worth 100 times the value of one dollar is incredible enough but to loos the second biggest market and still be that robust. man i would sell my car and just share my wifes just to buy coins because i know that people are just waiting to pull the trigger and have them jump to 800ish. by end if year....if im right some one is gunna buy me a beer!!!

wow big sell off coming ..... watch as it dips to 105ish

nope... my itchy crystal balls.. says...

going up.. and up and up...

Technical analysis is just a bunch of malarkey.  Never proven under rigorous academic study.

What could be the reason for the price of btc to go down?

probably below 100 very soon ........ they need a break .. from all the activity

does anyone think bitcoin is going to crash soon?

It will bounce back up again :)

bouncy bouncy

it is ...and has. was 160 just a week ago.
you will see these bounces but continue to drop to 80.....steady then and backup then up up up to 200 at lest!

Hi

Noob question... what's "sr"?

Also, how many people here buy and sell bitcoins rather than just mine them? Is it worth doing this at the moment, or is the market just too volatile? Or is a volatile market just what you need when you're speculating?

Lexis200

What is wrong with Silkroad?

Aah, sr = Silk Road  :)

Answered my own question!

So, BTC dropping because no drugs to buy?

Excellent technical analysis by OP.  dude we should chat on skype and share notes on this stuff.  I have been arbitraging between the exchanges for about 2 weeks now and doing very well!

both fundamental and technical analysis are predictive, they boast about being right and being able to predict the direction of price, which is not always profitable, an easier way to make money is by combining a purely price reactive entry/exit trigger with dumping small losses and letting winners run, while adding more positions to them, ie a trend following system

do you think sr being down is the underlying cause? seems there is a big run every time a major player (exchange, wallet, marketplace) has issues

oh you....stop

ya i kinda watch the patterns way to much... also its just good to listen to your self,  even though i called this one its best to just go off your own intuitions mixed with some TA and you will be making coins.





mining is dead. only the rich with there supper riggs are making money. also everyone will tell you to not mine cuz the less miners the more for them. if you are techy then i say why not set up a good pc and let that fucker mine you some gold.


now with sr back up i guess....i dont know. thank i think we will start to see it climb up. maybe onemore sell off but then back to 200 by summer

Well the price went down to 90 and climbed back to 112 in a few hours, thats a significant market movement......I was watching it at 90 and thinking I should invest 10,000 dollars now today and sell when it gets higher lol, I would have sold at $110 and made $2000 this afternoon.

Now all I need is $10,000 if anyone has it spare :)

ha i know what you mean. but the more coins the more you can loose to. i put 6k in and i went to ten with my buying stratagy. but also lost one or two due to it not hitting my proxies.

Good call OP!

If only I had listened!

shrug....maybe the big fish are manipulating the price....trying tomake the minows run away and then they will putin 100 200 400 900 800 300 coin buy orders. its crazy to watch. when the rally is on watch bitcoinity.org man it goes fast but they start buying them buy then hundreds at a time. make the rice rocket up 25 dollars plus!!

Supply and demand, buddy.
There is a pretty static amount of bitcoin being produced at any given time. The more people are buying it, the more expensive it is.
The less people are buying it, or the more people are selling it (so the exchanges have more), then the price goes down.

hey tell me your guys prediction for the next 24-48 hours. up down sideways?!?!? let me know

i think we all know that part .... i think what he/she is asking is why the sell off. why arepeople jumpng ship. it takes hundreds of thousands of coins to go from 150 to 100. thats about ten million dollars gone. probably they see the down slyde and so they will sell and buy back in at a lower price.... this is a positive feed back loop. but what will brake it is about twenty people is all to all  put in buy orders at once with about 10 coins each at a price about 5 above the current market value. this will cause the shift and then people will think oh here is the bounce and all start to buy and bam you got yourself a panic buy and a huge rally. its just the opposit of the bubble but instead of a pop and it falling it like a boom and rockets up.

I haven't the math to prove it, but it seems like there's always a bounce before the weekend then falling back to resistance levels on Sunday night.  Then only the news influences the Charts.  Last week's news...all the PayPal info, which caused the rise to 160.

If I could import the gox/btc-e data into TradeStation or the like, I could give more than just gut feelings.  But for now, the guts all I got, which ain't enough for me to commit, therefore, I just steady long, steady long.  

MtGox low today was $91.... nice time to buy.

Personally I think the true value is whatever the real retail market indicates. As more vendors accept Bitcoin the value will have to be determined based on the size of the economy. So if there is a $20 billion economy with 10 million bitcoins in the market place that makes 1 BTC = $20000.

Second - the BTC economy will grow by leaps and bounds.

It is dirt easy for brick and mortar to accept BTC. As long as they know how to manage their wallet - it is the best payment method bar none.

Porn - they are going to be all over this.

Micro Payments. The Internet is about 20 years old now (1994)... and there have been many advances and success stories. But Micro Payments have been hurt by the shitty banking industry. I should be able to go to WSJ or NYT and pay a damned nickel or less to view a page. That doesn't happen because of bank transaction costs.

Local P2P... obvious.

The one thing that will hold all of this back to some degree is value stability of Bitcoin. Eventually though we will reach that point. When the the true value is determined and it turns out to be very high for 1 BTC - say $20k for a bitcoin - then a few dollars up or down won't make a difference and you will in effect have value stability.

Comments welcome!

Maybe I should take OP's advice more often!

Only if you're prepared to see the value go below that for a while, the bounce back up to 115 was only temporary. I mostly agree with your position on the long term though.
The next short term (days) bottom will probably be at 80-85, unless we finally break the downwards trend (which seems rather unlikely at the moment)

I don't have a MtGox account yet... moved to diff state and need to get new drivers lic to match address. That said.....

1. Do they have stop limit orders? That would be the way to play the market all day because it seems to bounce around quite a bit even when it's doing a cat bounce on the way down. If you can just take a few dollars/BTC on each trade and you had a good 100 BTC or so to work with you could make real money.

we all have. thats why we gotta stick together. now hold my hand...... HOLD MY HAND!!! DO IT.   ;D

OMGOMGOMG for the love of god you yes you are the reson btc is taking a shit!!!! do not under any circumstance use mt gox. horrible horrible comany.


please use bitstamp. what you do is supper easy you go to bitinstant.com and place an order to have coins transferd there. all you do is send them a monygram and by the time you get home you have your 5 coins or however many you bought. then you can buy sell put in advanced buy/sell orders and stop limits and all that good stuff without the lag of mt gox. how do so many nobs not know about bitstamp. they are the best and very low buy sell fees. mine are like 20 cents.... unles its a 50-60 coin purchase or sell then its like 3-4 bucks no big deal. 

I think it's stabilizing pretty well right now after last night chaos

1 and 2 hour EMAs (10/21) have already crossed over. Seems pretty positive for a while at least.

Too bad I was still sleeping when this trend became apparent. I bought right after waking up today, which was at around 100$. Even at 90-95 it was already a safe bet.

demand is really a wierd concept :p