Bitcoin Forum

Can we say goodbye to Pump and Dump? Has the era of ratio adjusted valuations finally arrived?

I first commented on what I identified as the first major influx of fiat capital flow into crypto over a year ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1095434.0

Now a year later, others are starting to get wise too.

http://www.coindesk.com/second-wave-bitcoin-price-growth-may-just-beginning/ (The author’s referring to the 2nd wave *up*, or the 3rd wave in Elliott Wave terminology.)
http://www.coindesk.com/800-growth-q1s-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-posted-big-gains/
http://www.altcointoday.com/billionaire-investor-holds-10-percent-of-life-savings-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/japanese-investors-might-be-fueling-the-next-altcoin-bubble (Take note that P&D legacy influences the author’s title and conclusion – preconceived notions will get you your head handed to you.)

And the articles are becoming more and more proliferate every day.

If you accept the thesis that this “new” money knows basically nothing about the technology itself and only knows that some small part of its portfolio needs to be allocated to this emerging economic reality, and if one of the pillars of modern investing is diversification, then we can conclude that this new money will be spread out over a “basket” of cryptocurrencies. By no means can we even begin to think that non-tech money will target specific cryptocoins. This new money will most likely be targeted at the sector as a whole.

And how will valuation be analyzed and estimated? It will be done just like it’s always been done: by ratio adjustment. If BTC is worth “a” and XYZ coin has a supply 10 times greater, then XYZ will be worth “a” * 0.1. Very simple. Extremely simple. Ultimately BTC will be tied to the USD in the same way, just like all currencies are tied to each other. Of course, there are fluctuations in their relative pricings based on wider economic factors, but just as we never see a 10% overnight change in the EUR/USD, soon we’ll never see huge pumps and dumps again.

I think we’re going to see huge pumps that DON’T dump, and that take prices up to their corresponding valuation levels.

Will we see that in all coins? Take a look at this and answer the question yourself: http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

If your answer is no, then I agree with you 100%. There are tons of shit coins, tons of abandoned coins, tons of scam coins, etc., etc., that will die in the waste bin of crypto history.

Will the rest all go up at the same time, or more or less “in sync”? My analysis says they won’t. These things begin slowly, gain traction, and then go full steam. It’s not necessarily an overnight phenomenon, that is until you get to the Elliott wave 3, which I believe we are entering, but even then it’s a “process”. The whales get wise and stop dumping once they realize the ride is going to be longer and higher. Their resources are also limited (especially in comparison with the huge amounts of ever growing fiat coming into crypto) and they need to be selective and thus drive the prices of a limited number of “early winners”. Their selectivity in turn is seen by the new fiat coming in who fill their “baskets” with the outperforming names. It’s very circular and perhaps even somewhat self-fulfilling. As the “old timers”, the whales as we better know them, sell to the new fiat at much higher prices, they then “rotate” into lesser known cryptocoins, drive their prices higher, and sell once again to the new fiat that keeps coming in. Rinse and repeat until, at some point, there are no more viable candidates left to “invest” in and all the winners are "fairly" priced. Has this process begun already. Will your coin be included in the winning groups? And which group will it be in? The first to rise? The second? Or will it ever make it at all?

Total market cap is still less than 10 percent of Apple’s market cap. That’s just Apple, and just to name a very famous case that is often cited when making relative comparisons of public companies. Now, put Apple into the relative context of a 13 trillion dollar M2 money stock just in the US (more than 50 trillion developed economies combined money stock), and it’s just a drop in the ocean.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

This writing is not definitive, nor is it meant to be anything more than food for thought and something to create lively conversation on the subject where more data, opinions and perspectives are added to the mix. I "invested" less than 45 minutes in this, so please forgive the lack of footnotes and exhaustive argumentation. The idea is to start a conversation that I hope you will engage in and enjoy yourself while doing so (and perhaps even make a little more money too!).

For the perhaps 50 or so coins that really are viable, I think we can say goodbye to P&D and hello to real ratio adjusted valuations.

What do you think?

I really think the era of pump and dump is over and the day Chinese lost control of decided when price of bitcoin should go up or come down was the day that circle stop. We the bitcoin enthusiasts has try to tells people around us to see bitcoin as a currency of future and now they are regretting not investing earlier.

Pump and dump is natural to the market and even now it is occurring and there are no regulations being placed on the exchange systems. If you notice on the stock market pump and dump is present and much worse this pump and dump was a day to day occurrence to cryptocurrency market. The only way to stop the pump and dump is the unwavering support of people towards a certain currency just like what is happening to bitcoin right now.

The pump and dump era is over for bitcoin only and this is good news.
Unfortunately there are hundreds of altcoins and lots of crypto "gamblers" and "investors".
They all feed the pump&dump "business".

The era of pump and dump is far from being over.You will see this happening again. It's just a question of time.The alts will crash. To me this is set in stone. If bitcoin should bubble, which it isn't so far, it will get dumped as well.
Altcoins will correct 80-90% imo. And in worst case it will take Bitcoin down to a certain percentage as well.In a best case scenario some huge amounts of the alt money will push Bitcoin up as people may see it as the safe net! 

some of what you say makes sense but i can not agree with your main subject. the pump and dump era is not over at all. and if anything it has just started and it is getting big.

for bitcoin this era has been getting smaller and smaller to a point that i can say that it is negligable but it still exists. we saw an example of it in March when a simple FUD wave caused the dumps.

but for altcoins it is getting stronger. and all the money you are saying is coming in is actually investing into a bubble and into these pumps. these things only make things more catastrophic not better.
the altcoin pumpers have not gone anywhere and not many things have changed about altcoins, so there is no reason for anything to change about their pumps and the fact that these pumpers would want their money out to buy another altcoin cheap to pump it to 1000x and make another profit.

you see they don't want it to be over. pump and dump being over means the 1000x profit era is over for them, so they won't let it happen.

The era of pump and dump is really getting to an end but I will not totally conclude that it has ended because the stability has not been enjoyed long enough to take a stand on it. Its true that the Chinese influence on the price of bitcoin has dropped but not totally. Also, we cannot also conclude that P&D is only coming from that end because if a major news should break from either Japan or Russia or even Switzerland then the effect could be massive.

i like the word that you say OP people are now getting wiser and with other's said that looking on its perspective as an asset and not only for
pumped and dumped system. as bitcoin already getting really support coming from more investors traders who believes first are now enjoying
the fruit of their success.

that is what they want you to believe. and when you start really believing it, then BAM! they dump on you and you are crushed under the load of altcoins when you are just bag holding and kicking yourself asking why did i leave bitcoin for these.

the market is surely bigger and a lot more money has came in but it really doesn't change things. the whales who dump to get the money out to better things are so much bigger now compared to the total money that came in ;)

nothing, but nothing, presently justifies its valuation. there's no more usage than there was a few months ago.

at the same time when you look at figures like coinbase published recently about new users and the japanese banks applying to create crypto exchanges, the weight of newcomers might well cancel out the possibility of major dumps.

it depends on whether they keep on coming and we end up with an eternal september situation. but sooner rather than later all these coins need to actually deliver something tangible.

and thread titles reminds me of two phrases - 'this time it's different' and 'new paradigm' and we all know what happens next when they're thrown around.

I am really happy as i see no real pump dump of bitcoins. This clearly means that what high bitcoin price we see now is the real price and it is a stable price. We all need stable high price of bitcoins and this will give more trust among the people.

The pump and dump is not related to an one time period but it is a sort of a strategy used by traders intentionally to pump and dump the coin to their own benefits.

Lots of altcoin dev are doing this practice and fooling a lot of innocent people. With Bitcoin, it is difficulty to keep the pump and dump strategy one because of it high volume and secondly its too high a price now to play such games.

I think pump and dump are still prevalent in the altcoin market. This practice is fraudulent to begin with, but it can't be stopped. This is a strategy by most professional traders and big investors alike. And its the newbie that are mostly affected by this because they don't know what hit them, so they panic sell just to recover. While the big whales are profiting out of it.

Pump and Dump never ends it just takes on a different form, we view every market transaction as an experiment and we are always learning from them and looking for an opportunity to get better some ideas work really well and some we need to look into.
Right now some investors know the history and the trends but as more people come into the market they will not have the lessons of the old timers and repeat old mistakes that is when a dump occurs ^^.

That’s certainly the “other side of the coin” - “what we’ve known until now” - but assuming that things will always be the same never works forever. Regimen changes can cost a lot of money to those entrenched in outdated thinking. It’s important to avoid falling into that trap, and, well, that’s the reason for this thread.

I think we can all agree that the question about reasonable valuations for solid performing products like STEEM or BTS, to name but two examples, is not a question of if, but when. Those are two stellar examples, Freudian slip intended, but there are many more. Many more. LTC is not going away anytime soon, rather it will be trading at its 4:1 ratio with BTC sooner or later, don't you think?

Sooner or later. At some point there’s a paradigm shift. Sooner or later. Agreed? Could it be happening now?



As I just outlined above, sooner or later we’ll get that new paradigm, why not now?

Japan is getting very crypto friendly very fast. Look out if institutions like the Japanese Government Pension Fund starts getting involved (sooner or later, right?).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Investment_Fund

Money’s number one priority is self-preservation, and there’s big money on the outside looking very seriously at cryptocurrencies, and, in my estimation, already moving into cryptocurrencies in a big way that’s going to get much bigger very soon (but you already know my opinion on that).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/bitcoin-soars-over-1700-2017s-best-performing-currency

Pls could you send me a list of undervalued coins that you feel?

Contrary to what all the positive articles are saying dumps are not over and they will keep happening. Some people have hold enough Bitcoins to singlehandedly cause a big crash. They would be stupid to do it because they'd lose a lot and it would be much wiser to sell slow, but it's possible. These people will have to sell eventually and some of them might not want to wait and convert their stash in portions.

Based on a strict particular ALTcoin to BTC ratio, the most undervalued of my current favorite candidates for immediate price revaluation are:

NXT and SYS, both extremely solid 1st generation coins that are more than 500 times undervalued.

BTS and STEEM (already mention in my previous post) are both more than 250 times undervalued.

Want a stalwart that's guaranteed to always be there? How about LTC? 84 million total eventual supply is 4:1 with BTC. How long until LTC trades at $500? So, by that measure, LTC is 20 times undervalued.

Turn this equation around and you've got extremely good risk/reward on these, what I consider to be, phenomenal opportunities, again, as is central to this thread, as long as we're not witnessing a P&D on a massive scale that's beyond imagination. (I know it's hard to buy the highs . . .)

Those are my "stars" ATM. There are tons of 2nd tier coins ... XMG, GRS, DMD, NLG, XMY, etc., ... that are even more undervalued and worth watching closely, but I expect those to correct more than my stars and to give us second, and even third chances, to repeat the experience, but we'll have to see how things develop on that first.  ;)

My pleasure. And now for yours? ;)

I do not think the dumps are necessarily over (still thinly traded markets), but agree with the notion that - should the crypto currency growth endure - there will be a steady inflow of money seeking a part of this. And yes, definitely some of it will go into larger altcoins, if only as a speculative bet.

And all of this is good as long as the user base keeps growing, on to applications usable in real life. For now, I settle for Bitcoin's excellent 'decentralised trust' mechanism. Not a bad feature for medium term thinking, looking at the path major fiat currencies are currently taking.

Comparing Bitcoin with other investments by numbers, this is still very tiny and thus subject to major price variations. So also dumps I think. And there is no shock absorber  8)

I sure hope early coins like Devcoin (http://devcoin.org/) will make it to the other side. On the other hand, no coin really dies if there are two people sending each other coins  ::)

As requested.

1) In Nxt stake holders control consensus and get fees from transactions.
Unlike Proof-of-work where miners are in control of consensus and network which causes conflicts of interest and strife in proof-of-work currencies.

2) Nxt has pioneered many features that other coins adopted or think about adopting.

3) Nxt is the longest running cryptocurrency not cloned from Bitcoin. Different code is a good technique to diversify from possible flaws of the Bitcoin copycat coins.

4) Nxt has most dedicated devs who never miss a deadline.

5) And the last but not the least, Nxt is soon to become Nxt 2.0 on the Ardor platform. Ardor, like Nxt before it, is a pioneer of scaling solutions in the form of child chains, not seen in any of the other cryptocurrencies, featuring 35x better scalability than Nxt or Bitcoin on consumer grade hardware (your average laptops).

Agree that SYS is undervalued. I haven't researched the others, but due to your posts, I will.

I'd add Monero to the list of solid coins. It's the most fungible and private coin available. With more money pouring into crypto, people will soon realize that they don't want merchants/others knowing how rich (or poor) they are since most of these coins are on transparent blockchains. With Monero the amount you send, the person you send it to, and your sending address are all not visible on the blockchain. In an era of government and corporate spying, the need for financial privacy is only going to increase.

Its value is poised to grow because of those reasons, but also because major features are due soon: Kovri I2P, multisig, and mobile wallets. The unofficial spokesperson, FluffyPony, gave a presentation to Coinbase earlier this year. As to whether Coinbase includes Monero with BTC and LTC remains to be seen.

XMR also is not a Bitcoin clone. It started from Bytecoin (which had a > 80% premine) but has been improved so much that to say it's a Bytecoin clone is no longer a good description. The devs (over 200 contributors with around 10 core devs) are top-notch, responsive, and involved. Monero has been academically reviewed and still undergoes extensive testing through the Monero Research Lab. It's survived several attacks and smear campaigns because the tech is solid and does what it claims to do. It's one of the few coins that doesn't engage in hype and out-of-control marketing, choosing instead to focus on its tech.

So, I believe it's still undervalued.

Yeah I don't see P&D completely dying all at once either. While I'm thinking the time might be now for the best of the best to be substantially revalued, there could be a few more rounds with the majority of coins and perhaps even more with the more speculative coins.

As you say, comparing strictly by numbers is very limited. Blockchain projects with applications usable in real life is extremely important, especially for the 2nd generation coins who don't intend to compete on a purely store of value level.

STEEM and BTS are a couple of my favorites precisely because of what they're doing in the "real life" area. NXT and SYS are 1st generation winners creating real, one stop, store of value and means of exchange, that is to say, true LTC rivals that will probably end up standing side by side with LTC in that space.

In any event, I completely agree that strict ratio analysis is only a relative springboard as it were, and I've invited people from each of the cryptos above to share their thoughts and ideas about their respective "coins" to hopefully expand the conversation a bit and make it more useful to all.

Thanks.

Lots happening there on a consistent real time basis! And lots to read and learn about for the future too. https://nxt.org/announcing-ardor/

Thanks for whetting our appetite!

Amazing what Nxt has done and continues to do.

Monero is on the radar, but with "only" a 60x ratio specific revaluation prospect, I'm not sure about it getting an imminent boost to that level - there could be perceived negatives based on being a relative laggard within the top level group of the top 10 (by new money looking for the still relatively  "undiscovered" coin with "big potential"). For lower end appreciation prospects, I'm looking for something that serves the more hardcore bank vault equivalent, like BTC (not) or LTC. I like everything you have to say though, but I'm just not all that much in need of absolute privacy either, and especially not if basic security is compromised - not saying it is, but when there's a doubt . . . maybe someone else can help out with this . . . maybe I'm not adequately informed.

Thanks for pointing it out and reminding me to keep it on a front burner.  :)

Pump and dumps wont just go away.

There is no laws and regulations that will make sure this cant happen.

And from what I know, then  there is a group called "fairpumpers" that are doing a public "fair" pump and dump.

But they also have a private group that has to pay .50 or .75 to get in.

Which sounds sketchy if you ask me.

But P&Ds will be a thing forever.. Unless regulation will kick in.

this is a very interesting question. it looks like most legal clarifications so far treat crypto as forex. forex has nothing like the regulation that any stock market has. however crypto markets also contain the people who created and control the currencies. there's gotta be some conflict that regulators won't like in there somewhere.

i wonder as it gets bigger whether they'll let it continue to be a free for all or not.

There's also a point where the free market ends P&D independent of regulation. It's a simple size thing. It's the reason why pink sheet penny stocks were always the favorite and why it's impossible to pump IBM, much less the EUR, for example.

BTC is arguably too big to be P&Ded now.

The thesis is that money flow into crypto is so large and so constant that other cryptocurrencies will soon be taken to similar capitalization levels, and that little by litte, probably sooner than later, through a series of across the board rallies with relatively shallow corrections, the top 25 to 50 eventual survivors will all be taken to similar levels. Perhaps we'll be talking about the "blue chips" and "penny stocks" of crypto in just a few months time. With the later, there will still be P&D, but will we see it through the same eyes by then? Or will it end up working against them, ironically speeding up their eventual death in so far as having a chance to go beyond cult status to mainstream acceptance?

My thought is that anyone who says we're in a new era is usually wrong. I've heard it so many times in other markets that I just don't believe it anymore. There are no new eras. We have seen it all, and that includes crypto..

yep. let's dig up this thread in a few months. either it's gonna be an embarrassment or a triumph. i'm betting on embarrassment.

I agree. It's a most interesting question, but, again, in my opinion, it's not a question of if, but when, and I think it's coming much sooner than anyone expects. We'd be remiss if we didn't. Not only to settle conflicts, but to also TAX the gains. Big money there for govs. ;)

And there are proactive consumer protection measures as well . . .

What's most interesting for me from a valuation standpoint is that regulation will be the end of it for a few entities, no doubt in my mind.

Perhaps you really mean to say that PREDICTING when a new era begins is usually wrong. If that's what you're meaning to say, then I agree with you.

I've taken great pains to make sure I reiterate again and again it's not IF, but WHEN, and that is what we're asking ourselves about. We're not questioning if it'll happen. IT WILL HAPPEN. There is no doubt about that. The question is when and how, and the key to this thread is that it is a QUESTION framed as: "is it happening under our noses right now?" It is not a prediction.

You wouldn't say there's never been new eras in the history of mankind would you?  ;)

Changes happen every minute of every day. The trick is to adapt in real time. For the more complex and complicated changes we face, the usual requirements are a little foresight, insight and predictive capabilities, and the process normally starts with analysis regarding relative past experience and precedent, and feasible possibilities.

What's the old saying? Never say never?

Maybe we are in the new era of pump and stability (P&S) and have outdone the P&D that hitherto was tormenting newbies like myself and those who invested in expensive mines.

There's size money driving these markets. Everything I'm looking at says that this is anything but pump and dump. I could be wrong though. That's one of the reasons why I started this thread.  ;)

Look at that leader board! Huge fiat inflows = demand overwhelming supply. Early cycle leaders indicating there's more to come.

https://i.imgur.com/VDdgJ2p.jpg?1
https://i.imgur.com/VDdgJ2p.jpg?1

You know, I just wanted to mention that I don't want to give the impression that contrasting opinions are not welcome in this thread. The fact that I've commented strongly against the idea that things never change should not be construed to mean that I don't want counter opinions to the possibility that we are currently experiencing a fundamental shift in crypto.

Quite the contrary! I want counter arguments, but they need to be just that: arguments! Just saying that things never change without saying what you base your opinion on are, to be honest, worthless statements. Even more specific comments like there is no change happening now are useless if you have no rational argument developed to support your opinion. However, almost everything is admissible if it's backed up with rational arguments!

So don't get me wrong, it's not like I don't want you to give dissenting opinions; it's just that I want you to support your view with observational data of some sort. It doesn't even have to necessarily be objective, but you do need to say WHY you think what you think and give examples for what you're talking about. I have cited clearly observable massive money flow over the last few months into crypto as one of my arguments (and I will share more of the same as I get time to do more analysis) that looks quite sustained until now. One possible counter argument would be to develop a thesis for why this is an anomaly, or, even better, a misinterpretation of the data on my part, for example. Have at it! I'm looking for healthy, open, honest and good faith debate.

Please shoot down my initial conclusions (I'm sure you'll be helping me to save a lot of money if you successfully do), but please do so with real arguments and without empty dogmatism. Who knows, we might even make some money together – the most important aspect of this thread should be that it is mutually beneficial. ;)

Can you please point to an event, statistic, or underlying betterment of BTC's protocol that can justify the recent rise?


Japan:
I am sure money from this market has made a difference, but not on the scale we are seeing.

Code:
Taking todays announcement into consideration, there has not been a major settlement with the scaling issue.

Institutional, Hedge Funds, Governments:
I've heard rumors that money from these type of places has finally wised up and decided to enter the game. This rumor is often repeated, but never verified. I actually think once this rumor becomes a reality(sometime in the future), that is when we will see 10k per coin and up.

Bottom line, BTC's market cap and the liquidity on the exchanges still allows for wales to pump and dump. Wales aren't the only ones to blame. There are plenty of average people/traders buying BTC because they think this gravy train will not stop.

In fact, this thread is a good indicator we are in a bubble or just entering one. A bubble is when everyone at the party is drunk and cannot think rationally. If I say "BTC will only keep going up", that is an IRRATIONAL statement. Change the subject BTC with Apple stock or Real Estate prices and you will see how stupid it sounds. The fact that people believe BTC cannot be dumped means they are currently drunk.

LTC/BTC at 4:1 ? Are you insane ? Did you see to silver trade to gold to 4:1? Litecoin even with the best pumping and 'developer boost' (now), can get to about 45-50 : 1 and it was high enough, and the supply doesn't matter, so much these days. LTC is expensive for a currency without any perspectives than segwit and some upgrades. It has sentiment and support of many crypto exchanges, and is a base pair of many coins, but trading currency doesn't neccesary means it will go up. I think if LTC could reach again 50$, as I thought for a year, it can be a top for this year.

@up - of course. We're entering 'media attention' phase, cause even in my country (non-technical news), are reporting about btc sourging, so a few months from now (3-4, maybe 5), we will see pop, as I calculated around 5900-6400$, some tell about 10K, but for me it's still early for such prices, but 6K would be good price to pop and slash it to 1-1.2K. However if it would extend we can get to 8K-10K, in which will be extremely volatile.
Ok, so looking for a market history deep and hour by hour in oct and nov in 2013, we are at the stage 2 as I said - media attention, and maybe within this month, we can accelerate to have 10K (when the history would repeat itself), and the start we can estimate at 22 april with price 1220-1240$, it was only one month at it;s about 2250$ now, almost the same change %-wise like from oct 5 to nov 5 in 2013. It's almost the same. This month is important.

And also that we are done with threats like 'we're at bubble', suggesting still fear at the early stages of rapidly rising market.

Interesting ideas especially the concept of whales still being able to manipulate BTC, and that LTC somehow has a real silver-gold relationship. Do you really think so? Japan isn't so involved yet, but the news of it becoming so is. :) No, there's lots to be considered, and lots to be debated, but always with the thinking cap on, and since I don't have time ATM to give things a better read, I'll leave off by promising I'll do my best to chip in when I can.

And the reason for this post:

https://i.imgur.com/uNuYj0f.png
https://i.imgur.com/uNuYj0f.png

Thanks for contributing.

I believe Pump and Dump era will never end.  Every coin has its time to be pumped then dumped.  It is a trading strategy implemented by people who have more funds to manipulate the market and earn more from trading.  This is a "natural phenomena" in trading.  It is like Air in the atmosphere, it will never end.

Pump/dump is still possible. With higher trading volumes, it takes more money to accomplish it today than it did in the past when trading volumes were much lower. Today pump/dump might take more cash than is feasible & not be worth it in terms of risk versus reward. That's the only thing that has changed.

Even if btc isn't feasible for pump/dump, there will still be many altcoins with lower trading volume where its a normal thing.

You really think so? I think the ERA still continues with pump and dump. Every time I see in the trade platforms that many alts are devalued in period of seconds. They are sold like lightening fast and the value becomes zero at a single momentum. I have seen and I'm experiencing this everyday. With the increase in prices of bitcoins, alts are getting devaluated because they are not that profitable now. They get dumped easily these days. So may there is time for the situation to stop completely I guess.  

If btc gets over 100k then it may survive pump n dump syndrome

https://i.imgur.com/ltQoQiV.png
https://i.imgur.com/ltQoQiV.png

Interesting watch . . . more or less both sides of the coin in a nutshell . . . but converging in mutual agreement long term. :)

"I'm in the camp that $80 billion will still look like a small blip when we look back." Albert Wenger
https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/867043701616517124

1995. Yeah ok. 1995 has a slow pace of moving accelarating as now is in bitcoin only in 1997-1998. We're currently as one guy said on bitcoin conference at level late 1997-1998. It all started in late 2015 - then we can said that it was 1995. Now we're 1.5yr later. It became dangerous little to pour. Scheme can still go, and probably will go for some time, before crashing, but it's as always - if it was real demand apart from speculators - it wouldn't be so steep.
Some hodlers with 10,000 btc could crash price any time - so say - if it's sustaible, to have such accelaration if one guy can accelarate or crash all the party. It's really sad, because liquidity is still none. Liquidity comes with speculators, but at the exchanges there won't be so liquid as forex market, it should OTC, to make it really liquid, with one integrated market. Then even orders like 10.000 btc, would make a such a difference.

Yeah, 1995, looks like you caught it before I edited it out - didn't want to confuse and wanted to save it for later - but, yeah, I personally think we're more in a 1995 situation (early 90's anyway) than a 1999 parallel. Will leave it at that for now. Nevertheless, in 1995 there weren't liquidity problems of the sort you mention BTC had a couple of years ago. Your description is of something embryonic and not at all similar to an early 90's stock market comparison, but rather more like the NASDAQ when it was still OTC. ;)

Been studying recent individual cryptocurrency trading behaviors and patterns, and I'm seeing clear telltale signs of emotional participants in some markets, and more technical trading in others, giving us a clue as to where the professionals are most likely operating, and, by implication, where the big newly arriving fiat is being targeted.

https://i.imgur.com/SFtqucg.png
https://i.imgur.com/SFtqucg.png

https://i.imgur.com/J0AYkdS.png
https://i.imgur.com/J0AYkdS.png

So you will be showing random pictures of bubble-aftermaths?

It would be more interesting to know the future (bubble tops).

You'll have to read what's come before in this thread, first to get situated, and then for the answer to your question, which you'll discover was a little out of touch with the subject being discussed - bubble tops are the antithesis of what is being proposed here.

https://i.imgur.com/JSOpPJI.png
https://i.imgur.com/JSOpPJI.png

This image is perfect to show the current state of things (well, this image is now outdated, but it still shows that bitcoin is tiny compared to the sea of actual potential money that could jump in)

http://image.ibb.co/g8OMYF/money.jpg

Current Marketcap for Bitcoin is a bit under 40 billion, so it shows how Bill Gates net worth is bigger than the entire Bitcoin Marketcap which is nuts. The potential for growth on Bitcoin is still huge.

Im not sure about altcoins, but im sure they will go way higher too because everyone wants to get on "the next bitcoin" and people will not only buy bitcoin, but other cryptos as well, but I dont see bitcoin stopping from being #1. The banks are pumping ETH a lot tho.

Yes, this is a very good era the Bitcoin is laying currently in which. With this one of the curiosities of the people is going to be over and that is asking and discussing about the bubble to be crack and stuff like that. Today we can see that fortunately the Bitcoin has crossed the $2000 price. I am so glad.

And with altcoins included, the total market cap is right around 80 billion right now, equaling Bill Gates. As you say, just nuts. Especially when you put Bitcoin's "square" next to what it's really competing to be a small part of, i.e. Broad Money. There's room for growth!

If we accept the assumption that mass adoption is all but certain for BTC, then I think we can do the same for a limited number (let's say the "Dow 30" of crypto ;) ) of alts, and I think quite justifiably since there will be many niches to fill. All the top coins have demonstrated that they think "blockchain" success means niche specialization by their own targeting of niches. In short, I believe it's a niche game, and one of the keys for the investor is identifying who's going to be #1 in each niche. Bitcoin's got the store of wealth niche, but other's might make a claim on that territory as well, thereby illustrating crossover strategies at work with some even going so far as to shoot for one-stop servicing, but I'm not sure as to with how much success (perhaps more likely a few more years from now). Bitcoin is to the Bank, what Litecoin is to the Savings and Loan types of analogies are often heard these days. Those are two slightly different but very similar slices of the market. Beyond that you've got for profit concepts from secure contracts to online currency exchanges, even social networks, all based on blockchain technology that "shareholders", as they're sometimes called, actually own, and that's extremely liquid. When you think about it, it's a marvelous example of private incentivized innovation.

The price of $2,000 is just a starting point for the bitcoin rally because this coming months like september will be big and the price of bitcoin can reach up to $5,000 if the segwit will activated successfully and it will also a big news in the world because the people in the world will get curious and they will also buy bitcoin and increase the demand and help the price to pump more. This is a very exciting year for bitcoin.

As promised, the answers for what eventually happened to the “parabolic” teasers I posted yesterday and who they are.

Putting things into context is always extremely useful. Nonetheless, in spite of the evidence and comparisons I’ve presented, the main question of this thread as to “where we are in crypto in terms of longer term context” still remains largely unanswered.

I’d love to hear your opinions, both pro and con. Are you more convinced than ever?

https://i.imgur.com/qe1R2RC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/qe1R2RC.jpg

If you’re interested in taking a closer look at these examples on you own, or any other you may prefer (an interesting side note is that many a top gainer going into 2000 no longer exists so you won’t be able to find them here . . . anyone got any ideas about your favorite crypto Studebakers? ). Here’s the link: https://www.investing.com/charts/real-time-stocks-charts

Looking at the potential of crypto networks, I would say we still have 10-50x ahead, generally speaking.

We hope so. Try to hold your coin and do not sell it. every coin will soon be pumped. All we need is to hodl hodl and hodl. I have just lost 1 bitcoin from trading but I will still keep my coins and do not sell it

While a fair argument is presented, the op makes an argument as if the people will just make rational choices when it comes tot heir money and anyone that has seen a person buying something out of impulse knows that is simply not true, there are always going to be pumps and dumps.

The world is changing rapidly, what we are proud of 10 years ago looks outdated, I'm sure today is the era of cryptocurrency that will overcome the traditional financial system.

I think the assumption is that the more price increases, the less feasible it is to manipulate price, and as more and more fiat comes into crypto causing the subsequent revaluations of the best issues, manipulation will be much less likely in those issues reaching "fair value". The crux of this thread deals with whether there is currently appreciable fiat coming into crypto, just how big it is, and its sustainability. If those questions are answered in positive, then the question then revolves around the resulting effects: whether it brings stable prices and the end of P&D for those "blue chips", or not. We all know it will happen, the question is when, and I postulate that it is happening now with the best of the best. Second tier and third tier issues will have to wait (and, as I've said in this thread before, they will still be susceptible to P&D while they wait their turn . . . those that will survive, that is). By no means do I suggest that human nature is going to change! Not even with the manipulators whose greed will probably get more than a couple turned on their heads trying to "pump" the impossible, or just selling way too soon and then chasing at minor tops, etc. Human nature change? Not in the least! And not with the manipulators either! In fact, I expect to hear stories about whale accounts blowing up! To be sure, we will still see panic buys and panic sells - just look at Apple's long term chart for an example - but it won't be due to coordinated manipulation since it will simply be too costly to do so.

Those are the questions being addressed in this thread, and the better we can answer them, the more appropriately we will be able to position ourselves. For example, what would be the best strategy now for the average crypto enthusiast to employ with the very best issues? Sell and wait for a 70-80% pullback, or simply buy and hold? When was the last time we saw a 70% + pullback in BTC? Does anyone think that will ever happen again? (BTW, that wasn't market manipulation either - it was simple mass psychology taking fear to an extreme - human nature - but not manipulation, which is a very different thing).

At this stage, buy, hodl and continue to steadily buy (cost averaging) seems to be the best approach. And perhaps a gamble on some old alts and blockchain 2.0 projects if you have real money to invest.

Some thoughts on were this can go (please disregard the attacks on WS, focus on the potential): https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2017/05/25/a-new-financial-system-is-being-born/

Great article, attacks and all! A must read. Thanks.

What do you think? Just another pump and dump? Across the entire complex? Or a full on panic sell by recent fiat buyers who know very little, bought at the highs and are now selling at panic lows? For the rest of us who've been around the block a couple of times and know better, just remember, this will be seen as a blip.  :)


https://i.imgur.com/kVh4p5H.png
https://i.imgur.com/kVh4p5H.png

A really honest article sharing first hand experience and expectations that starts out looking like more unequivocal evidence for continued massive fiat money flow into crypto, but that ends up being an extremely well balanced and down-to-earth look at Bitcoin and crypto in general. A must read IMO.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-29/one-professional-investors-take-bitcoin

Zerohedge is an alternative financial media heavyweight outside of the crypto "ecosystem".


Let the comments come in, but let's keep them backed up with rational arguments - there's lot's here to be seriously debated, and childish memes and cheeky one-liners are a thing of the past for serious crypto "shareholders".

One of my initial comments goes to the idea that the supply of virtual currencies is infinite, to which I would suggest we add the words "safe and secure cryptographic" and then reconsider whether the supply of safe and secure cryptographic virtual currencies really is infinite, even theoretically.

Just one of many very interesting points made.  :)

Yes no doubt the new comers are the main reason to make the bitcoin price from any dump as we know that the bitcoin price is determined by the number of its users and the people adopting and accepting the Bitcoin now are the main reason for the price to cross $2400. Hurrah!

https://i.imgur.com/TSr5w6s.png
https://i.imgur.com/TSr5w6s.png