Bitcoin Forum

I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?

Neither, but a slight increase.  The freedom to buy Bitcoin and actually withdraw it would be very bullish from a speculation point of view.  There's no reason why it would cause the price to fall.

if anything, then pump!

Because they can withdraw BTC to Fiat all the time for the last half year. But when they finally can use their Bitcoin again, boy!

Perhaps they have little or no relation.

As ETH is a brand new market they can follow the 'guidelines' from minute one.

Presumably their Bitcoin books are gloopy with years of anonymous deposits and withdrawals. Note there is no ETH/BTC market despite that still being the biggest globally.

I would be dead intrigued to see what happens if withdrawals were initiated.

Do you think that this event would attract more Chinese investors? I wouldn't think this would have a huge effect on bitcoin price but I could be wrong. If it is good for bitcoin, I could easily see it shooting up even further to $5k or so before crashing back down. We are definitely in bubble territory already so any good news will likely spur up an even larger buying mania and push the price far above the actual rise in value reflected by the event. Then, as always, it will come back down to earth.

There is a possible effect on the increse of price because certain individual will convert their cash to Bitcoin and withdraw them.  But such event won't give an impact to bitcoin price since it is an isolated case in a certain exchange except a group of whales take advantage of the news to pump the price and persuade people to buy bitcoin.  But this event usually ended in a massive dump by the whales to cashout their profit.

The dump happened months ago when the central bank of china inspected the exchanges and the restriction started. Later, the price recovered when it was announced that the bitcoin withdrawals would be resumed. When this finally happen many users will take their coins out of the exchanges but there will not be a big price change because of this.

It might not even come to that, as you put it "if" not when, so if they open the withdrawals as the last months was an

Accumulation phase, I could see the ones in need of liquidity trying to cash out which means there will be some windows

Of opportunity wide open for the lucky and smart people to take the most out of it, I wouldn't be surprised to see price

Going back sub $1500 but as we can see every time price is falling some new traders-investors are picking it back up.

I know I'm repeating what was already said countless of times but repeating the truth doesn't hurt.

I don't get it! why do people even assume there is the smallest possibility of a dump?!!
a business was out of business for some time, now it is reopening, that means people using that business is going to come back and start using it again.
in this case the Chinese, the trading lover Chinese, have been going through other channels to quench their thirst for trading bitcoin for the past few months, mostly on other exchanges and on localbitcoins, now their biggest exchanges are coming back. of course they will come back to them and start their trading there.

No ETH/BTC only ETH/CNY? Then I believe Ethereum will pump as long as Bitcoin withdrawals are not enabled in their exchange. The most likely scenario for the Chinese traders would sell BTC for CNY then buy ETH through ETH/CNY, send ETH to foreign exchanges then buy BTC through ETH/BTC. This will further pump Ethereum and it might dump Bitcoin.

Based on the correlative factors I too expect a price pumping in the bitcoin and the ETH Which are quite big in the cryptographic market. If the Chinese impact is not felt then we can assure that China has lost its control over bitcoin.

are you sure that they have enabled ETH withdrwal and not just added it to their exchange platform?

but in any case, according to the news that came out about 2 weeks ago they have reached some aggreements with PBOC and according to that, we know the Chinese exchanges are opening withdrawals in June and we are 2 days away from June so it is possible that Huobi is doing it faster than others as competition only.

In the twitter announcement they write that ETH withdrawals are already open. I don't know anyone who uses it - so this is the best source I have.

I think people would dump initially but the rise in confidence in bitcoin in China would lead to a rise in prices very fast so the net result would be a pump.

i am not sure to be excited or sad about China!
on one hand the Chinese coming back means a huge amount of volume will come back and apart from that it can lead to the bigger rises.

but on the other hand, we all remember all the drama that China brings with itself! all the FUD, the China pumping, and dumping topics in this board and all over the internet leading to bigger FOMO and panic sells. and that is never good for bitcoin in long run and for its publicity.

and we all know bitcoin without Chinese went up to $2700 and came down to $2200

It'll obviously be good news and any good news results in a pump.

However the central bank still have already imposed really strict AML laws meaning that you basically have to state where your funds came from and show valid proof of your claim. Otherwise you are not able to withdraw anything. I don't know whether it's going to get better as time goes but certainly it seems like now that the central bank is just going to impose more regulations.

Would make no difference. Not all accounts would be able to withdraw, only the ones that are identified.

Wouldn't you provide a picture of yourself gormlessly holding up your communist party card to access your vast amount of BTC?

Chinese will regain confidence in bitcoin so a lot of people would deposit knowing they can withdraw again later, that will pump the price.

Chinese never lost their confidence in bitcoin, and they never lost their confidence in trading it either!
they only lost their access to easy way of trading bitcoin on an exchange in their own country working easily with their fiat.
you can confirmed this if you check the volume of other exchanges they have migrated to as soon as their own exchanges were suspended by PBOC.

I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

If it was overblown, why on earth would they pause withdrawals? It must be because they looked at where the coins were being sent, and if they were being sent to western exchanges, then capital flight was definitely taking place. 

But they allowed ETH withdrawals - ETH can be sent to other exchanges just as easily as BTC.

Good point. But it's also a brand new market and now everyone on there will be KYC'd up the arse. I assume very close tabs will be kept on them. There must be plenty of Bitcoiners on there from years ago who still haven't submitted themselves to cavity searches.

It could go both ways depending on the forces of the market at the pont that its eventually happening that the effect might actually not felt or being felt in a mild way. We also need to stand understanding that bitcoin is growing beyond the control of one country as we seen in recent times that the news of freezing in China is even not affecting the flow of events afterall.

Yes, when full life-cycle of trading will be restored for China, I believe they will get back to the business and they will most probably follow the current trend of the markets. We could never forget China's hand in bitcoin appreciation in late 2016. Now bitcoin is doing well without help from Chinese traders and I believe when they will be joining the party we can expect more pump in upcoming days.

I'm also thinking that they will likely join the craziness about bitcoin. And with Japan and South Korean putting a lot of cash now, China will push the price more in a new level. They will not let those 2 nations enjoy without them, they still want to  have a piece of the pie, just like old days.

I think that some sort of disposal of the Chinese from the kind of control over Bitcoin will only benefit Bitcoin users for the market itself, because even manipulating the blocks and the volume, this has already caused resentment in many.

People tend to speculate positively, so I guess bitcoin trading will increase again in China as they always do. But I'm a little worry about dump after pump such as happened before. We're on good situation right now where Japan and Korean exchanges lead the trading market.
But, it's kinda weird if withdrawal has been discontinued for some time but Huobi and bttc trading volume also increase during last rally even surpassed​ some big exchanges. It may a good sign that they are excited to be involved, don't want to missed the opportunity.

the news alone caused a big rise in price of bitcoin / CNY pair so i am going to say chances for a big pump is much higher than any chance of price getting dumped because of them actually opening the withdrawals.

Surely this will be a very big change. Giving loosening of the use of bitcoin in china will make an increase in bitcoin prices worldwide.
We all know that china is a large country with the largest population in the world.

could go either way,theoritically should mean dump as traders may want to release their funds
and might as well clear their deposits and withdraw all,to not risk get frozen yet again at some point in time
but at the same time the funds should migrate to another country/exchange where the withdrawal problem should never repeat itself
to be honest with you,bitcoin price  is the second most unpredictable thing in the world (close second after women's logics)
we can theorycraft all we want and then explain why did it happen exactly opposite to what we predicted :)

OP I think now you have your answer.  ;)

Also, more withdrawals means less coins on exchanges, which in turn mean less to sell + less to short = higher price.

Looks like OKCoin has just opened withdrawals:  twitter.com/cnLedger/status/869934911179735040 (http://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/869934911179735040) - just as I predicted - but the limits are kind of low.

So does that mean that we will be having another rally in the price of bitcoin and the rest of the alt coins,i just sold my holdings because i thought we could see some good correction after a big rally and i am expecting the price of bitcoin to go down below two thousand for a while and with the current news my plans might back fire.

It could be, but the point is that the market is bullish, and thus it's likely to see the price go up regardless of Chinese exchanges enabling withdrawals. Other than that, I seriously don't understand why people till this day make the mistake of selling all their coins at once. Instead of risking you having sold to early, just cash out max 25% when you get tempted to sell. People selling everything at once mostly end up in a big disappointment....

Just remember recent situation with restriction of bitcoin withdrawal in China. That resulted to a big price dump. But if all chineese BTC operations will be free to use,it is logical to assume that this will increase the price of the asset.

The logic is that if the exchanges return to normal operation and the withdrawals of bitcoin are allowed again, users will want to buy and this will cause the price to rise, although I don´t think that a rally will happen at all. Keep in mind that it´s possible that when withdrawals are allowed there are daily restrictions in the amount to withdraw. Moreover, during all this time when it was not possible to withdraw bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges the price of bitcoin has risen steadily so I suspect that the Chinese influence on the price is lower than it was a year ago.

Opening withdrawals might be attracting traders to come back into their actual business of what they were already doing. I mean to say China's people are very big reason for bitcoin getting into four digit price levels by end of last year. Now the rest of world are doing what China was doing before, hence I am expecting they will be enjoying joining the rest of world to pump bitcoin prices to another new ATH.

Yep. So it's just going to make things easier and get the wheels moving. It's not going to make it so everyone there dumps but instead they will be much more confident in bitcoins and buy more to trade with.

Well I am not able to understand one thing that why people are afraid of the Chinese miners and what will they do wrong to the Bitcoin. If the Bitcoin are mined even it will have no bad impression on the users. For the users the bitcoin is Just a currency and they will be using it in the open market. These mined bitcoins will go nowhere but will be circulating in the market.

Yes I agree with you. Things can go both ways either in the favour or against but this is not that easy. Saying it is easy but this is not such a thing that can happen and it will immediate.
Even if the China freeze the bitcoin it will not affect the bitcoin market greatly because we have the Bitcoin users from all over the world. We can’t say that the bitcoin growth will stop by this act of china.

Being a user and an investor in the field of the Bitcoin a little worry at this stage is ok because you have invested a capital in it a little dump in the price can affect for you but just for the time only. I think those people who understands the scope of the bitcoin in the long range will not be worried too much because they are well aware of the potential of the Bitcoin and its future.

When we are talking about the scope and usability of a platform what is the first thing will be looking,how smooth things are,do you really think that bitcoin is so smooth and the functionality is so great that people sitting back will think that it is inevitable to take the price to astronomical figures when it has some serious scaling issues. When china opens bitcoin for withdrawal nothing happens,might see some investment in alt coins,other than that nothing will happen.

I have hope of pump but last rises was really so amazing, I can't even imagine which exchanger how acts because once 2 of them stopped withdraw and price went down but it was fixed in 2 day. Still I think there will be little pump from their side but not a long lasting one. Again it will fall a little and than will risr again, I this situation everytime.

I thing it will be a pump since BTC withdrawals had been open.  This means they can buy Bitcoin and can withdraw them away from exchange.  It is non-sense to have a dump when withdrawals in bitcoin opens.  Dump should had happen when Bitcoin cannot be withdrawn and not when Bitcoin can be withdraw. 

Price pump or dump not necessary need to be involved i this. Possible that we will see some changes but dont expect to see then so soon, we have stability in price and dont expect to see any movement in price  for now. But i will like like most that we see price going up but dont expect to see another big pump like it was last one.

Surely those big pumps happens rarely since for now as we can see the rice quitely go stable at 2000$+ and maybe it could stay for this for little while and maybe we can see some movements when the time bubble up fuds or bad fuds will spread but for now im enjoying this rate at this point since little by little im earning some good profits from exchanging my btc frequently.

A lot of the chinese people are using korean market to be his secondary market. But after the opened of the bitcoin withdrawals by the exchange site and look those are still interested with korean market rather than using the chinese market itself.

So Huobi has activated ETH withdrawals, but so far they are refusing to allow the BTC withdrawals. How this is going to be good news for the Bitcoin? My guess is that more Chinese users will convert their Bitcoins to Ethereum, creating a crash in the BTC exchange rates.

This is because of the Korean market making big volume of trading causing a difference in the profitability compared to the Chinese exchanges market. Also right now it's said that most users from China and the exchange focus big on the ethereum helping it pump higher.

I personally think this is going to mean a slight drop in price of probably 2 to 3 hundred dollars but then after some weeks we are going to see a pump in price, since I think some are going to withdraw their money just to see if it is true and then after making sure they can in fact withdraw their money then they will begin to buy even more bitcoin.

I reckon those holders see the same things happening as we do.

A bull run going for an ATH almost every week. So no I don't thing the majority will sell their coins, but rather invest more and try to profit from this bull market.