Bitcoin Forum

It's actually pretty simple. Basis Elliott Wave knowledge is sufficient to understand the BTC market.

Wave C will go down to where the "bubble" started. OK maybe not the full way ($10), but something like $20 or $25.

http://s1.directupload.net/images/130503/n3jmeej5.png

You're out of your mind.

Possibly. But I made good money trading wave 5, A and B.

Move the peak of 'B' to April 25th.

can i have a puff?

Hey sanity is overrated, I just don't think that price is possible. There are more people in the market now than then. Ergo,more demand, math, higher price.

As prices sink over the following months many will leave. Sure, we all say "If it goes to $50 I'm going all in!" But that's not the way it actually works. Once we break out under $50 the selling pressure will be huge.

Hmmm.  That would be a tremendous wall to sell through, but if it is sold through, confidence will be (temporarily) shattered.  Currently $50 is the mental safety-net.

All I care about is multiplying my BTC in that time frame. It could go up, it could go down, doesn't matter, more BTC, more happy. This is how you win the game.

I wouldn't be so sure. You're forgetting that a number of exchanges have shut down or blocked accounts recently, which scared some people away from Bitcoin forever, that Gox is getting sued, which scares even more people and that Google Trends shows the search volume for the term "bitcoin" has dropped back to February levels and seems to be continuing on that downward trend.

This is the April 2013 Crash and it's not over 'til it's over.

It's starting to look that way.BTC is really starting to drop.I wonder if it'll follow another cycle where the value gets really low (£1.78 GBP per BTC like I saw once) before steadily rising again for a while before peaking like it did a short while ago?

+1000

using the out of my ass (tm) analysis clearly this is a donkey balls bear crush wave.
this means that it will be way over 200 by the end of may

Awesome! Bring it down - I will be waiting to jump in!  ;D

This feels right to me. Whenever I want to predict what the market will do I start by asking, "What would I do?" If the price drops to the $5o range again, I'm going to be buying all that I can. If there are many buyers out there like me, the price is going to have a hell of a time going below $50.

I think that a lot of people that believe in Bitcoin are just hanging fire - until they identify their perceived bottom, and then will re-invest the same amount of capital but with a larger quantity of coins purchased.

The price was about $50 before Cypriot crisis ballooned the bubble, so I don't think Bitcoin will ever fall below it.
Also don't forget about reward halving and difficulty increase which made unprofitable selling mined coins below $30-50.

It's funny to see people still thinking it's Cyprus that caused the bubble, lol.

Shush, none shall question the great Idiot Wave theory.

Lucky that the price history isn't slightly different, otherwise it would go down to -20

Agreed.

It probably skyrocketed on its own after a few months (Dec - Feb) of daily, mini-pumps/dumps. Over a long enough period, small pumps and dumps can look like a genuine trend upward.  New speculators saw this, wanted to make a quick buck, assumed it would continue indefinitely and drove the price through the roof.

Same thing happening with most of alt-coins right now.  

Agreed, bit coin is on its way down. There is no question, we're going down to $50, $40, $30, $20, even $10. The only people buying are those who think we're back in March and the price is going to $150 or $200 again. Please, give me a break. To Anyone still holding BTC , sell now whilst these crazy people are still existing and willing to buy your coins, because I can guarantee they are not going to be around here much longer.

Say this to miners who invested thousands of USD into ASICs and have to give away generated coins so cheaply in own loss!
Personally, I will never sell my coins below $50!

Well, for those who don't want to trade, buy and hold is a proven strategy with Bitcoin.  :D

Even if you want to call this an Elliott Wave, I don't think you can say that stage 4 on your graph really exists. That was a tiny bump in the road, it's a real stretch to call that a wave. If anything, April 10th marked the end of wave 3 and we're in wave 4 now.

Of course, I think this is all nonsense with essentially zero predictive power. It's not hard to go back and make graphs fit patterns, though.

That's fine. This was pretty obviously a bubble for a while, and what goes up, must come down.

Despite my recent disillusionment with certain charismatic turbobulls, what's rubbed off on me is a sort of idea of where this thing might be going, if it doesn't fall apart. Putting aside for the moment the USD/BTC price - because really, nobody can predict that - I can think of all these useful things I'd be able to do with bitcoins, given just a little more technology.

I'd like to do those useful things, so I'd like to buy more bitcoins to do them with. Simple as that.

Of course, the fluctuation of the price makes that hard. If I don't know what the national currency cost of 1BTC will be in a week, or a month, it's hard to say whether now's a good time to buy or not. I supposed that's what brainless algorithms like dollar-cost averaging are for.

My gut certainly won't like it, but my gut's twice the financial imbecile that I am, so it can take its butterflies and sit on 'em.

Damn, OP, go read tea leaves, you'll make more sense.


Just curious, what kind of things?

Private islands

Well I'm not following the Elliot wave I'm following the parabolic bubble from when it crashed from 200 :)

I'd worry if it hit 20 then that would be the end BUT I'd probably still weigh in quite heavily. Preferably it'll hit 50-65 and I'll buy. I think the 'real' price is 150 though. I have no worries that we'll hit 150 probably 3 times in the next 3 months.

The blockchain is a decentralized, atomic ledger and timestamp server. The ledger is unitless - it's denominated in BTC, but that's really just the default.

If we want to be prosaic and stick with the area of finance, consider that after redefining some of the unitless balances from being "Satoshis" to being "[insert description here]", the ledger can suddenly support every security and asset under the sun. Even using Satoshis for this isn't necessarily required under certain circumstances; if I want to give out coupons for a free loaf of bread at my bakery (and am OK with those coupons being indivisible), I can print them as 0-quantity outputs by paying a BTC-denominated transaction fee, and they can circulate freely on the blockchain until cashed in or destroyed.

Alternatively, if we wander away from the financial world for a moment, you can use the blockchain to mathematically prove that, for instance, you knew a particular secret at a particular time (this can be the basis for anonymous guessing games that don't have to rely on trusting the operator to not be playing Sid Hoffman Sid Frenchman). You can use it (via sacrificing some cash to pay for the UTXOs) to preserve small pieces of information indefinitely and indelibly. This is all stuff I thought of in the past five minutes; as a tool, blockchains open up some incredible opportunities, and we're only now exploring them, and the biggest, best-distributed, and most secure blockchain in existence is the Satoshi blockchain, whose operators only accept payment in BTC-denominated transaction fees.

That's why, no matter what happens to the price, BTC (which serve the double purpose of transaction fee tokens and unitless ledger balances) will be useful as long as miners keep mining.

Visions of sugarplums. I'd enjoy Pietilä's mythical $300k/BTC as much as the next guy, but today I'm discussing a bitcoin's intrinsic value. :)

Don't think it will go all the way down to 20 if it did though I would be interested in reading the news feeds to see why before making my call :) Either way I think were treading near the bottom already but waits a few days to confirm the market knows best after all

"it is only going down to $20" if you are a noob.  

In reality if you had been into Bitcoin 4 month ago at the beginning of 2013, you would be existed about it being up of $20.

And from there it's going up again, and will probably go up exponentially until it fulfills its niche, or it turns out to be a Ponzi (that is a metaphorical Ponzi, for those who don't like the term.)

Bitcoin isn't a stock. Don't trade it, if you believe the idea has merit, know there will be a finite number of coins, you can only win by holding and only trading out for more than you paid.

If you are a day trader go ahead and play the game, if you bought in to a get rich quick idea, by all means sell out at a loss. But if you what to know what you are invested in read this: www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf and if you see merit, don't trade out for less than you paid.

Also some advice to noods, don't invest your Bitcoin's, it may get boring around here for a year or so, but my experience is when people get board they start investing in actual Ponzi schemes, some so well disguised they look like legitimate companies, don't do it. Just save, with a finite currency you don't need to invest, to maintain the value. (invest Fiat, your time, but save your BTC.)

Don't worry guys I got this - I've confirmed it will be 20 soon.
http://img.ctrlv.in.s3.amazonaws.com/img/51844a7962b06.jpg

post of the day! :D

I stopped reading right there.  People that know how to write are more likely to be right, as well as being more persuasive.

I watched Bitcoin for a long time before taking any action (check my registration date here). I decided finally that I wanted to use BTC as a currency and store of value and bought in for 85 through 120 USD. I now find myself day trading because it's the only option I have to try and retain value of my store (with respect to myself) besides praying that the price goes up.

And that's messed up. That's not a currency, it's an attempt at using a stock as a store of value.

The above doesnt really reflect the totality of how I feel about the Bitcoin project, but its a gimpse.

That doesn't make any sense. People trade all other currencies, those aren't stocks either?

In fact the currencies market is far larger than any stocks market...

From a merchants perspective Bitcoin is currently the only possibility, and a limited possibility at that in terms of accepting Crypto for products. Either we give up Crpyto altogether or Bitcoin will remain the dominant force. Personally I think that a lot of day traders are dependent on the volatility, I have noticed a lot of members who go on constantly about Bitcoin falling beyond return yet nothing is stopping them for simply selling up and moving on. Digital currency is the future, so unless an Alt-coin starts to approach Bitcoins market share all that needs to be considered is at what level Bitcoin can be sustained as we enter the phase when merchants(like myself) start accepting Bitcoins. There are to many projects now meaning vested interest and more push towards the right direction in the future.

Stability is obviously kind of important for merchants.  Either that or else the ability to convert bitcoin to and from fiat really quickly (as in about as quickly as sending bitcoins from one address to another) I think the second is more likely than the first in the foreseeable future.  I also think that will increase adoption dramatically, becuase it makes it much easier.  Bitcoin ATM might help with this.

You should try and make use of your btc...it will save you time, you sleep better, etc. I used btc since 2012, it served my purposes then, serves me now, and hopefully will continue to do it. For people who actually started in bitcoin by using it, and not giving a f*ck about the exchange rate, it is clear that bitcoin is strong, and will not fail. Keep day-trading if you want, but you should think about something useful for the bitcoin economy, for example make things and sell them. (I am not saying to get rid of your investment obviously, keep it but try to make another investment to actually use and help build the bitcoin economy)

heh, in  the process of creating something now, plus an avalon  design which I will only sell for btc.