Bitcoin Forum

Usually, at this time of year, we experience a quiet time (of summer). I was checking Bitcoin price charts and I have noticed that Bitcoin price calms down (nearly stable, just the normal fluctuations) before the end of may, and starts rising again in the mid of June, and dumps again in the mid of July, stays calm for a while, then start rising again at the beginning of September.

So I think buying Bitcoin at the best price would be either now or in July.

Last year there was that Bitfinex hack that caused the July price dump.
I don`t want to search for patterns in the bitcoin price charts.Anything can happen.
Some big platform might be hacked and the price might return back to 1000 USD or even lower.

There is nothing similar to the things happening in relevance to the seasonal change. With bitcoin everything happens depending on the demand to the supply market. These days the more and more investment as well users were getting into bitcoin usage. This increases the requirement, but due to the calculated availability the demand causes a price surge. In the past the price dump took place when the inflow was quite not stable due to the Chinese exchanges. Once Japan entered everything went good along with increasing price.

^^This

Bitcoin does not have seasonal price fluctuations. It may have behaved the way you are describing last year but it is not more likely to behave that way this year. Furthermore, the price is not remotely stable right now... it is flying all over the place like crazy every day. It is stable compared to last week but it is still a ridiculously unstable investment.

No you are wrong. It's not nearly stable just because the price was slow down. Also you can't based the past events on how bitcoin price will behaves to the current day.

What if the price goes on a rampage again by July? The best price to buy bitcoins is not the point here but the ability of a person to take the risk. Since we all don't know what will happen to bitcoin price in the past days, we can't have a good speculation of the exact date when will be the best time to buy. If you believe that bitcoin price will increase more in the following months then just do the buying and face all the risks.

In my experience in btc, i would agree that most of the prices are increasing during summer times. It increases and it reaches a certain stability. Next year maybe the same cycle would be observed but im sure that the price will also during the next summer. It is norm because it has ascended to its original price the advertisement it is experiencing now is ore popular than that of last year. So i hope btc and also other coins especially can increase price so at least there is something worth to be waiting.

When Russia join Japanese's trail , I'm think the value will got higher since Russia also has a great economy compare with others
Bitcoin's demand will increase significantly so it will impact on bitcoin.

For now, bitcoin reach stable value at the moment until Rusia's turn

A lot was very into speculating right now I think they are very impatient of the fluctuation of bitcoin and the increase in the price it does, but I think we have a great value price right now and bitcoin didn't get back down on the $1500 we should be thankful right now and wait for the big increase of price with bitcoin because July 1 is a big day for Australia because the government is accepting bitcoin in their country.

nice analysis but i am sorry to say this but : meh.

when you get deeper in what has been happening in each of these times and try to compare it with things that are happening now, then this theory seems more like a coincidence rather than something to rely on for future speculation.
but that is just my opinion.

Bitcoin does not follow a set pattern. Plus there are hardly enough data points to get a conclusive inference.
People have tried to attribute trading patterns - after halving the price rises, in a calendar year the price rises, etc.
But give it enough time and there will be exceptions to observed patterns.

Before the banning of bitcoin into the country Russia has got increased user base, it suddfwll off when the ban was set for bitcoin. Now months back the ban was taken back and people have started to use bitcoin as the past. So an increased usage is experienced and if it makes an investment similar to Japan we can expect a big price pumping.

Norm or not, just keep your Bitcoins and stay away from that Sell button. At this pont of time there are more people getting to know Bitcoin and that means more people will try to get a piece of the limited supply of Bitcoins. There will come a time when one wants to buy Bitcoins but they can't because the rate is too high.

Well it's a big agree for me now, because keeping your bitcoin will make you profitable in the future price mark down of it's value in the marketplace. So if you see some drops of price fluctuations, grab the opportunity and buy bitcoins in order to boost your holdings value. With that case to case basis on investments while keeping it in your wallet, I am pretty sure that when time of $3000 could hit the peak; you will be the wealthiest btc holder during that period of price increase. Dumpings will happen upon reaching that dreams and after that more buyers will be more interested to purchase bitcoin, as what was happening right now at $2000 range of price.

bitcoin price changes mostly because of events, for example we had halving last year as the biggest thing and this year the Japan news which keeps coming out.
the fact that similar events happened at similar times doesn't mean they will continue to do so.
for example we have the scaling debate still going on and it may come to a conclusion finally and with this UASF thing, price can go wild for a while. and that is going to be new.

Sometimes, changes in Bitcoin's price are due to no reason at all.
People expected the decision on ETF to have a big impact on the price. It didn't. The price just kept increasing although the ETF was rejected. Similarly, although there is no headway on the blocksize discussion, the price has still increased.

We cannot call the current recovery of bitcoin prices for no reason. I guess almost all the bitcoiners are now agreeing about bitcoin price to reach $3000/$5000/$10,000 too. But we need supporting news/events to drive prices there. Just believing into future of bitcoin alone will not help.

At the same time, being a trader I can assume the general physiological trends of traders, they assume bitcoin is capable of reaching higher values and hence they are pumping prices along with new investors. It may seem to us prices are moving up for no reasons.

It depends on your targets. If you're thinking about opening long term positions into Bitcoin, you can basically buy at any time. But if you just look to make some quick bucks in the coming few months, then things are different. Curren't levels require a good level of buy support to maintain, people shouldn't forget that. If the price remains stagnant for a while, it will start tickling people's nerves, and at some point they just sell. If we manage to move up slowly, then we'll likely break through the $3000 level before the end of next month. If the market doesn't go up much higher than current levels, I believe the chances are high that we'll be testing $2000 again.

i think if you want to see the down of the price, then you can wait for a while until you got a number which you want to buy bitcoin or if you are in rush to have bitcoin, you can buy instant on the market exchanges. if its really increase at the beginning of september, then now its the time for us to prepare our bitcoin so we don't missed the day when we want to sell our bitcoin in high price.

Although nothing can be ruled out but I think all big platforms have taken a good ,easurements to prevent hacking and most of them now keep their coins in cold storage.But nothing is sured and who knows there may be some inside job or something like that.Even Bitfinex might be insiders job

This. Bitcoin is still very new and not as liquid as other asset markets. Bitfinex shouldn't have affected the bitcoin price, but it did because of the lack of liquidity and strong market makers. That means that any attempts to find patterns from previous trading will likely be useless.

technically there is always a reason, the reason may simply be "more people selling than buying"!
and as i said it is always based on events. the rejection of ETF was a big event and it already had its effect the first time, and the second time nobody cared anymore!
and regarding blocksize debate we have already seen one big dip during the $1200 rally the first time.

although i should add that these things can never push bitcoin out of its general course which is rising in long term. they will always have short term effects.

Correct, so the best thing to do now is just keep your bitcoin and hold it. Norm or not, the price or value of bitcoin is still unstable. It might be steady as of now but we'll never know it'll dump the next few days depending on the news or speculation of investors considering bitcoin as their investment.

If I see what you say is currently bitcoin prices are experiencing stability long enough. Not as usual, already for 1 week there is no significant price movement. maybe the month of July will be a good marker for bitcoin price increases, but is still limited to the assumptions and predictions. so anything can happen very quickly.

News, especially big ones can move the price in both ways, but there is also things that happen under the radar and not many people knows about it. OP is not the only guy that noticed this price behavior, look at the halving before the last one, again big increase was in November, last year again late October.
Jun is here and summer began, we will see price movement in this and next month, I expect history to repeat again and price to go down a bit.

This is not entirely true for some time many have noticed that bitcoin has a tendency to go up before the end of the year around December, and to be honest I have never read a good explanation of why this may be the case, except that this is a pattern that we have seen happening a few times already, but I agree partially regarding the fact that bitcoin is really unstable but it does not seem like it is going to go down, to me it gives the impression the price is going to go up once again.

Yeah I do believe and agree on those point that you've mentioned and I can confirm also with what I had observe from the last years actual situations, and that's happening again. The normal fluctuations is really visible with it's possibility of higher increase trend in the middle of the year, that's going to happen also this year. I think that's a common activities of people who mostly sells their holder for a purpose of spending money for a holiday seasons expenses. After that price will again have the strength to spike it's price to become higher again.

Well you should expect a drop every time a major exchanged gets hacked. Stashes of dumped coins and loss of trust are major market movers.

I don't think this year is very different as last year. Before the end of May, we experienced a crash although short lived only. Maybe investors just cashing it out for the summer, but I do believed they cash it for other reasons. I don't think there will be dumping in July, as Australia will be embracing bitcoin in July 1.

For now i think its smell that the price can be crash down again.. because the price of bitcoin right now is the price like last month its really high.
Hoping that this time that the price won't crash down.. its really different movement of the price if we compare them last year..
we are seeing large price movement this year because of the block halving and we are seeing high movement of the price..

Right now price is really high and I don't think your prediction would not happen OP since bitcoin does not operate within a pattern maybe by July we will see another one which is probably a pump with price higher than what it is now, or a dump to a lower price and maybe we will see 1200$ again. If an exchange is hacked by July or August which is possible, then we would see 1000$ again or lower.