Bitcoin Forum

its still very early.  You think $2500 is nice? You ain't seen nothing.

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to the moon!

How are you classifying this current time as innovator to early adopter? I like the sound of being early but I am just wondering how we are confirming these data?

Sadly most of us fall in late majority and late laggards including me, and to believe my bad luck I was offered Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013 and I decided to walk away, without even seeing them and now look where they are. Ps we already crossed moon, next stop is Mars let's hope we get there sooner than later. But I do want to know how are you sampling the data, there no poll or how did you reach a % could you elaborate on that point? Ps which stage are you?

But I think it is still early to say that it is too late to invest with bitcoin because bitcoin price is still rising a significant height and I think we could really see it this year and I am talking about the $3000 mark value is the target right now and might come a long way in years and years to come so just invest, earn, and hold bitcoin for your future benefits don't look back and just spread to other people about the great deal with bitcoin because it is not really too late.

I learned about Bitcoin 2011 but even today in 2017 I am telling people we're still in cryto infancy. One way of thinking about this is if you save up for one whole Bitcoin mathematically in absolute certain terms you could only be 1 out of 21,000,000 people who own a Bitcoin. Well it goes deeper since we know only 16,367,963 Bitcoins have been mined at this very moment. So you could be 1 out of 16,367,963.

But... it goes a little deeper.

Out of 16,367,963 Bitcoin holders, some very lucky people hold 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 100, 1,000 or more...

Deeper... some people lost their wallets, hard drives, or died holding Bitcoin...

If 100,000,000 people learned about cryptocurrency and tried to acquire a whole Bitcoin - the price would be insane. 3,200,000,000 people will have access to the internet by the end of this year. There's 7,500,000,000 people in the world and growing!

Definitely not.  There's absolutely no chance that as much as 2.5% of the population is using and/or holding Bitcoin right now.

We're still right at the bottom of that curve, frankly.  Even if you look at a terrible measure of crypto wealth like market cap, cryptocurrencies are still shockingly insignificant.

It's interesting how people who are part of something new tend to assume the best of other people because they try their best to get other people involved.  

People like to try and convince themselves that they're actually later than they are because of:

1. Their confidence in the technology.
2.  Their pessimism, and feeling like the best opportunities are behind them.

When you look one year behind and see the Bitcoin price at $1000, of course people will feel like they lost the opportunity of their lives. That's just natural from the human being, that always wants more.

Just imagine how small Bitcoin's performance is in the world rn.

- We can say that almost nobody in the world uses Bitcoin compared to the fiat.
- Very few places that accept Bitcoin in the world. In Brazil only in the largest metropolitan centers such as São Paulo has some place that accepts Bitcoin, and is still limited.
- We are still facing the huge scalability problem.

All this and the price of Bitcoin is still at $2500. That's why I can't really imagine how anyone still thinks Bitcoin is already expensive.
They will the same thing when the price goes to $5000... and at $10.000 again...

great news: you are totally wrong. lol... you ARE in the early adopter phase...most ordinary people dont have bitcoin yet.

time to load up the boat!

what else is new!
i have been hearing this each year when price rises. people get excited and start singing the early adopter songs and to the moon ones and each time there is someone who says some random number and calls it the top.
it was $500 2 years ago then it was the old ATH of $1200 and now the $2700 and will continue on.

and all of them always forget that bitcoin is still tiny. we have not yet even started the early adoption phase ;)

I have joint the bitcoin world for more than 1 year and I think that I am a person who likes to learn new thing and live to make money. Well, honestly, we all love money, right? that is why we come here together

I'm in Bitcoin since 2013 but I don't think I'm early adopter, although I wish I was. If you look at situation now like this is only the begininig of the big price rise then is still not to late to join the Bitcoin world. You have all the good chances to make the profit so don't miss the opportunity to make your life better.

There is no way to know for sure where we are now in the bell curve. Only hope

Seems to me a bit too much optimistic to assume we're in the Early Adopter stage... However we're probably still in the Early Majority phase.

Regarding blockchain technology and how we conduct transactions using it... If we look at it from that perspective, then we're at the Innovators stage ;)

Is everyone on this thread out of their mind?  The number of unique Bitcoin addresses (https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses) used per day is around 500,000.  If we're very optimistic, that could be a few million active users and potentially some HODLers or traders as well.

That would put us at about 0.1% (absolutely right at the start of the innovator phase) max, if we assume that Bitcoin will actually match that adoption curve.

Stop thinking about things based on what you see today and assuming that everyone is into crypto just because you are.  Nearly no one actually is - many have heard of it but very few have got involved.

Don't know why you just suggested the opposite then.

It depends on how good august goes with UASF-NYCfrankensegwit camps fighting... if we can reach an agreement backed by Core devs, $100,000 is on sight in the next decade.

If we fuck it up and bitcoin hardforks into two coins, it's pretty much over, we'll go back in time several years. Nobody is going to trust bitcoin as a store of value if it can hardfork.

So if hopefully Jihan Wu and the big blocker loons cooperate, we may have a good outcome.

Nicely depicted! Yes, we are still in range of 'innovatory' and $2500 is surely not the best of bitcoin.
Now we are talking of the time where bitcoin is being accepted legally in few major countries and soon will be legally transit in 90%+ countries of the world. So we can easily expect bitcoin to be $10,000 soon. So here we are all among that top 1% population comprising btc investors. If we don't gonna be fix atm, we may loose big in future.

I'm probably wrong, but I do feel that quite a reasonable amount of people has seen Bitcoin at least once and many of them are actually using or have used it. Comparing to a few years back, mainstream interest is much bigger. We see many "newbies" asking for input and tutorials on how to buy and transact comparing to previous years. Thus why I wrote what I wrote.

I know many people aren't into crypto (at least I don't personally know anyone who is). However we've got quite a lot of people online interested. Besides, we're way past the time when Bitcoin was "the new thing".


I don't see why my post suggested the opposite? Blockchain technology and how we transact using it is very, very different from Bitcoin. They're two things in their own. Bitcoin will probably be insufficient in the future for worldwide usage. New coins will cease being issued around 2140 as per estimations. Bitcoin also has a scaling issue that we can't solve in a future proof way, at least for now. The possibility of Bitcoin evolving so much that it we won't be able to call it Bitcoin anymore or the possibility of having to replace it has been discussed in the community for years. What if something bigger and better than Bitcoin comes in 20 years? Pretty much nothing is eternal, and Bitcoin will likely die somewhere in the distant future. However, the idea of a blockchain will remain and the idea of money free from government control will too. So yes, we are at an infant stage of blockchain technology and its money transacting capabilities, in my opinion.

i think we're still at the start of the early adopters phase.

anyone coming out with late majority, go climb a mountain and get some perspective. that's ridiculous.

The number of active users on the forum is around 100,000 ("active" being users who were created more than 30 days ago and logged in within the last 30 days - theymos' info from this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1940393.0).  Considering that this is by far the biggest and most relevant Bitcoin forum, that should be a telltale sign.  Furthermore, it seems unusual that something with over 13.5% of the population using it would have a specific forum for discussion about it - you can't really imagine a "fiat forum".

Many people have heard of and seen Bitcoin, but whether this means that they use it is completely different.  And when we see "mainstream coverage" we focus on it too much and overestimate its power, just because we're into Bitcoin already.

You're right, I also don't know anyone else who's into crypto in real life.  That would suggest to me that the amount of people who actually are is less than 13.5%, since I know more than 7.407 people.  Of course this could just be a coincidence, but there are no reasonable indicators that more than a few million people are using or holding cryptocurrency.

Let's just go for the end of the innovator phase - 2.5% of the current population (rounded to 7.5 billion) would be about a hundred and eighty seven million five hundred thousand people.  Based on the statistic of unique addresses used in a day on blockchain.info, that many people would only send a transaction to a unique address every... several years.
All users of Bitcoin are users of blockchain technology, because Bitcoin is blockchain technology.  Therefore it's impossible for the number of users of blockchain technology to be fewer than the number of Bitcoin users.

I went in when it was at $800 and I thought I came late to the party, but the party hasn't even begun. You're right about these prices. If Bitcoin can double in value in a month it can do it again in a year with ease. I'm sure we're not even half way into the final prices, that is if Bitcoin can survive for another 2-3 years.

I am with bitcoin since 2009 I have a wallet with many bitcoin that time price was very low.I was trying to sold my bitcoin but no one was interested to buy my bitcoin.I was careless and for get my wallet.2012 when price was $1200 I was trying to recover my wallet but I could not find anything to recover my wallet.I was missed to take profit again and again.I think will also I missed that chance. ;D

In my view i am with OP that we are now really in innovators period because still their is only 10% of the population know about bitcoin and think when 50% of them start to use then the price will be unimaginable so it is clear that we are in innovators period.

In other terms if Bitcoin were to reach just 10% of the market capitalization of what people are doing on the foreign exchange - would be talking trillions worth in USD. Also consider that the foreign exchange itself grows and population rise is not slowing down either. Once we start talking about more and more people on the internet with technological growth - woooo - as some people might say this is "just the tip."

Its a good sign that its not too late to invest in bitcoin now. The price is just warming up and investors can expect a lot more some says too early to give up. Bitcoin will not only take us to moon but all over the universe.

Im on Early Majority since I just took bitcoin seriously. I know bitcoin since when it has just 500 usd but again I didnt take it seriously. I just got interested when I saw that it surpass the value of 1000usd this january and I started my action on that point. researched all the details and at that point I also got interested on investing on altcoins hence I got plenty of xem and some ripple.

If I invest in bitcoin right now, I am an innovator because I already have an experience in bitcoin so i'm not new to bitcoin or I'm not a beginner so maybe you can't call me an early adopter and maybe you could call me now an innovator because I invest money on bitcoin which can affect bitcoin.

One of the few times that I agree with OP, we are still at the very early stages of Bitcoin, and we can call ourselves innovators or early adopters at least.
If you haven't done it already, ask your friends and relatives if they are aware of Bitcoin.I bet that only a few of them have heard about it, and the number of the people who use it is even smaller (about 2-5% in my case).

I think we are near the end of the early adopter stage and nearing the early majority, but this is on a general basis
Some places are well into Bitcoin adoption some other countries are way behind.
In cryptocurrencies in general though I lean towards innovator in the adoption scale people who use it and early adopter in the awareness and reach, although news about Wannacry and other things make it so a lot of people are aware they don't remember it for the most part hence my rationale.

Not sure what is considered early but I got bitcoin in 2014.. Probably a mid-adopter

Nothing to brag about but actually I'm generating 500 Bitcoin addresses and saving them with their private keys and currently looking to find some body who is willing to code me a software where I could do this automatically and also put them all on a watch list to notify me when ever any of them received a transaction lol imagine if I could do 100K addresses in a day and one day getting lucky to hit the jackpot.
We should start moving into multisig addresses which are starting with a 3 because they are much safer.

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I agree with you Fyookball, +1 for this and keep up the good spirit.  O.o\=     <your avatar.
                                                                                                 \~

unfortunately i'm not investing only and maybe most people late including me because i do not expect the price so high currently and that's why i was so doubt when people says bitcoin will above $2000 soon but since last month i consider my main asset should be bitcoin and not other else

Exactly what I thought. How are we sure the data group we even belong to? How is the data confirmed, how are we so sure we are not either still in the innovative stage or the early majority?  Whichever way, I hope I reap the great huge benefits of bitcoin in near future.

I also believe that we are still in the Early Adapter stage as Bitcoin is not yet that known globally. Only a minimal percentage of the whole world is owning any Bitcoin and since when we talk of mainstream we talk about the millions and even billions of people then we are not yet there and it could still take so many years before Bitcoin can be as popular as US dollars at least. Bitcoin remains to be one of the best earning and growth potential there is for now online.

I agree with OP.

My friends said that bitcoin was dead about a year ago because he said that if it was something that was going to succeed in the long term - it should already be adopted by a lot of people. I think that this sort of skepticism is held common by a lot of people, making them afraid to invest in bitcoin or simply not bothered to check bitcoin out.

If you believe in bitcoin, and therefore hold at least some BTC, then you are already more open-minded than 99.9% of earthlings.

I do not know where does the percentage came from and I do not find any basis for the numbers. Regardless, I believe that new investors now are included in the early adopters rather than innovators. How come that they are going to be innovators when they do not introduce something new? They merely joined a group of people in adapting a new currency which is bitcoin.

What you are saying is true and it is always that who ever enters from when he is a new investors and who are in this field from long are innovators as they are being from starting or long time .

For me  people considered as the early adopter are the one who started to use Bitcoin around 2013 and before. While I agree Bitcoin is still somehow "young" people who are just starting to use it are the opportunists. And by using "opportunists" I don't mean to say it means Bitcoin already reached its highest potetial, still plenty to come just in the next 5 years. Considering the current issues will be solved

How can you say that if they are just investing in bitcoin now they are consider as an early adopter or innovator???
Isn't the ones who have been in bitcoin since 2009-2011 the true early adopter of it.

Unfortunately I am in late majority or luggurds it's sad let's see the future world is rotating may be we would be first category again there is no proven data discussing about this here onwards wait and watch

Some believes that we are on the late innovator stage or just starting the early adopters stage. If you will observe about the population of bitcoin users as of now, we are too few to be included in a "majority" with respect to the total population on Earth. In this matter, time is not of an essence, we are looking at the percentage of users. Though we cannot neclect the fact that bitcoin is still young, thus classified as early.


I believe that is just how you feel. Same as me, I feel a little disappointment because I did not know about bitcoin until this very year. It would make us feel like we are too late to start. However, if we will look upon the current number of users (bitcoin), we will feel fortunate because the bitcoin community is not yet that big and we still have our chance of having good fortune with the aid of Bitcoin.

Only time will tell us what place we are occupying today in the history of bitcoin. A few days ago the CEO of Xapo anticipated the price of bitcoin in a million dollars within ten years; if so, today's bitcoiners would certainly be considered early adopters. But if within ten years a new altcoin is developed with enough stength to relegate bitcoin to a very secondary place and send its price down to $1000 or less, today's bitcoiners would be considered laggards.

I believe innovator stage doesn't exist anymore and we all are in early adopter stage. Because I believe bitcoin price is not at its best now and it has a lot of strength left to reach the moon.

Lets just hope for the best.

Isn't that basically just theft?  You're desperately hoping that someone will send a huge amount of Bitcoin to the wrong address, and that it'll be yours.  It would be a seriously grey area, morally, not to return those funds to the address you received them from.

It's just like the Large Bitcoin Collider - no point trying to steal people's Bitcoin just because it's sometimes possible.

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Yeah, we're in innovator stage.  It would be flat out illogical to suggest otherwise.

Precisely, Bitcoin price is not at its best yet and we are looking forward to more increments. I likewise believe we are at the early adopter stage and hoping to be huge beneficiaries going forward

We are not early adopters.Early adopters were those who bought bitcoins in 2010 to 2013.We are also not late comers.Instead,we could say ourselves as middle men.There is lots of progress more to come in bitcoins and we too would enjoy benefits along with early birds.But the early adopters are very much blessed enough since they laid trust on bitcoins when no one believed that it would survive and i think they deserve for what they enjoy today with such a huge bitcoin price.

Sounds good, i will hold my BTC

How can we even confirm the class that we are on that chart?
We have no idea what tomorrow holds. So either we are still at the innovator stage or the late majority, only tomorrow can tell but I sure know we are not at the laggard stage. With great hopes for future anyway, I will classify myself as an early adopter.

I couldn't agree any less to what OP is saying because when I joined bitcoin and the price was below $1000 I was thinking I came late to the party considering the various historical analysis of how the price was below $100 but now I realised I was actually early and I feel the same thing will happen to to those coming in now thinking they are late by the time its 2 years from now.