Bitcoin Forum

Stop calling the recent expansion of the cryptosphere a bubble. We are not in a bubble. We are simply experiencing the rapid expansion of a nascent technology with new entrants and their fiat entering the market. A bubble is when everyone is talking about cryptos, e.g. your taxi driver, the bellboy, etc. Outside of my close circle of tech colleagues zero people are talking about Bitcoin.

True. I recently found a blog of when bitcoin was at 100$,I think  it will go to10k and 100k soon , definitely not a bubble.
Megaupload2.0 and Bitcache's  launch will be this august, price  will increase exponentially and bitcoin will consolidate as the best currency.

https://image.prntscr.com/image/97c8b26eb0f3487b9ffc72d829794060.png

A bubble is when something's cost differs from its intrinsic value - a bubble can happen on something which is shockingly insignificant.  Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" is extremely hard to define, so we could just call a bubble whenever the price rises extremely dramatically without much reason (such as now).

Of course every time there's a bubble a huge amount of people convince themselves that this is not a bubble and that it's the new norm - otherwise it wouldn't be a bubble.

Bitcoin has had several bubbles already, and this time it's got some friends getting a big slice of the action.  I wouldn't say it's quite a bubble for Bitcoin yet - it sure as hell is for a lot of pointless alts - but it's definitely on the verge of one and hovering around the point at which I'd call it a bubble.

To me, the ascending price is just an upwards correction, aka the price catching up to what the value of bitcoin would be had there not been any negative events/news/roadblocks. More and more people (general public, businesses, inestors, speculators, institutions, developers, entrepeneurs, etc) are recognizing Bitcoin's many potentials as well as it's resiliency and have decided to jump on the train.

So yeah, until there is an actual "POP" i.e. the price crashes spectacularly to at least the low hundreds or lower and fails to recover, not a "bubble."

Private Beta will not push mainstream adoption, so let's be realistic about this. I think the spike in the price has to do with mainstream adoption in

Japan and also the Chinese exchanges that are more active. I also think with more people trading between Alt coins and Bitcoin, we are seeing a

push in the price. After the 1st of August, the sparks are going to fly.  ;D

interesting to wait until aug 1 if the price will go up so high i personally think that it will be stay at top and it will not fall back bitcoin value is not because of someone hyping it but its reality which has been done by both japan and australia this two big countries got too much attention from newcomers and new investors.

That's a twisted viewpoint--never heard of an upward correction, and I'm not sure that's legit.  Nevertheless,  it's hard to say with btc.  Sometimes you can only identify a bubble after it's popped and splattered debris everywhere.   I do think we're rising pretty damn fast.  We'll see in maybe 2 years.

Each time the price of something skyrockets in a very short period, public opinion splits into two options - "this is a bubble" and "this is a new paradigm". In reality, you never know for sure, the price is driven by so many factors, and the future, both distant and near, can be so unpredictable that there's simply not worth to seriously argue if it's a bubble or not. People should put their money where their mouth is and buy or short Bitcoin accordingly.

Basically, you're saying it's not a bomb unless it explodes =D. Friendly jibe, don't worry!

The bubble or non-bubble argument isn't important I guess. I think for the lack of solid reasons on this ATH pounding bull that it's a bubble (that may not necessarily burst). Point is, no one can say for sure where this is headed next!

It might turn into a bubble anytime if some "investors" or early adopters reached their point and earned what they wanted and if they decided to cash out at one time. Although it seems that it is rising "stable" if you might call it that way, but to be honest nobbbody knows, nobody can predict the market let's sit and enjoy the ride and see where it ends.

I couldn't agree more. There's just a lot of new money flowing in, and in combination with the limited supply of BTC (21 Million ever) it is bound to continue to grow exponentially.

It is indeed not a bubble, in fact we've only just begun, expect much greater growth in the near future.

Why call it a bubble if it had not yet exploded.
That moment and after that we can call it a bubble but for now it is just simply a currency which took a hard course and still go way up.
They can call it whatever they want but still this are all just speculation.
If one can tell it is really a bubble then he can show his proofs and people will be the one judging it if it should really be thought like that.

It's not a bubble but the signs are all there for a correction soon. Maybe back down to 2300 range with long term trends upward.

lol, all told it is my bubble is different thinking by them as more and more users every year bitcoin will actually go to high prices and go up in stages

Personally, I don't think its a bubble. Maybe people are just trusting bitcoin more than ever that's why there is a panic buying. The dumping is very short lived, if its truly a bubble that has been burst, the price should go down as low as $1000, but we didn't get there because people started to buy again and stopping the dumping and now the price is increasing again.

I think the bubble effect is currently superior to people throwing money at Bitcoin ;) This bubble will settle when the scaling debate settles too... This is my bet.


This is vaporware, he's been tweeting this like crazy and said that this is going to revolutionize Bitcoin, but he didn't even explain what whatever he's trying to launch will do. He has nothing to do with a price hike. Unless he's the whale buying all these coins :D

Well we have to see what is MegaUpload 2.0 will be. I'm sure this can somewhat push the price of bitcoin, to what extend, I don't know. Japan has something to do if this is a bubble, as well as the South Koreans and the Chinese. This 3 nation have been trading and investing bitcoin like crazy. Let's just wait when is the next correction price happening(burst???). LOL.

If the scaling issue i not carried out carefully then it will be a disaster without a doubt and if the fork is not done carefully we might even have a clone and double chains and i really do not want to see those kind of grave changes that could affect the entire chain and would start a ripple effect.

I don't think so that it's a disaster to call if fork is not done carefully and as I think why it happened, it's because we're gone through a challenging effect of supply and demand of bitcoins. Yeah that's affecting the entire blockchain network, that's why they've called it a bubble price; but actually it's not. Price really arise when demand also rises because of huge investments, particularly to those bigger whales putting up their wealth on digital currency with a huge ammounts of bitcoins.

Exactly.

Most people I meet still don't even know what BTC is. When your plumber tells you to buy BTC it might be a bubble  :)

to the OP

bitcoin infrastructure:  meaning merchant adoption, business growth, user adoption is not a bubble

but if your only talking about the "market cap", then that is a bubble
the market cap is a empty wall with no substance holding it up.
there are not billions of dollar just sat in bank accounts to ensure the market cap value holds.

its like housing. even though the average house might value at say $280,000*.. this does not mean that a housing market of 16mill houses is worth
$4,48trill*.

the $4.48trill* market cap of housing is a housing bubble. because if everyone tried to sell their house for an average of $280,000* there is no real $$ to cover every purchase. if everyone tried to, the bubble would burst!!

so stop talking about 'market caps' as that's a meaningless bubble number.

if you care about real value. look for metrics like:
merchant adoption
user adoption
business utility
basically the real strengths of an economy, which all currently point to having bitcoin at the top and having good value and longevity.

again if talking about value do not mention 'market cap'

*number picked for demo purpose only, dont be anal and knit pick its inaccuracy

Sometimes we can only identify the bubble after appearing and the rubble is sprinkled everywhere. I think we were up pretty fast. We will see in probably two years. Indeed this awaited Ascension bitcoin for all users

With $9 to $29 fees for a single transaction?
WTF! Delusion in the face of a messed up reality is one very clear sign of a late stage bubble.

Cheers to all of the free minded people who used to LOVE Bitcoin:
http://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/MWimages/MW-DF380_bubble_ZG_20150211161118.jpg




Minecache, Your post does contain some real wisdom, IMO, but BTC has thousands of merchants who suddenly cannot accept it (due to huge fees), so let's talk about reality please?

It's not a bubble especially if some institutional investors decided to join the party, people think the rapid expansion of bitcoin and it's price value soaring up like a bull is a buble cause all of these years they've experienced the price of bitcoin soaring then all of a sudden went down can't really blame them if they think it that way but bitcoin has been innovating, expanding and gaining may supports we've just couldn't see it because we've been busy with the bitcoin scaling debate that we haven't realized that bitcoin has already matured from volatility. I guess the one's spreading the news that it's going to be a bubble is altcoin or gold investors.

It's a bubble :p  same as 1200 bubbly...except this time it won't drop to 200 after it pops, happy?

A bubble implies a lasting and devastating crash is imminent. I don't think that is remotely in the realm of possibility so I would say no we are not in a bubble.

Of course every time there is a correction you'll see lots of people shouting crash, as they when it dropped for what, like one or two days, when it went from $2800 to <$2000 and then stabilized at $2200-2300 for a few days and then started moving up again and in less than two weeks as of today we were back hitting new all time highs. Ha, so much for that bubble pop!

We are seeing the start of the exponential expansion of bitcoin/cryptos towards mass market. We are nowhere near mass market, which is why calling it a bubble is laughable. Next year people are gonna be dying wishing they had bought bitcoin in now, and the same the following year, and so on. We are at the very start of that exponential growth. Yes there will be corrections along the way, short term corrections measured in hours, days, or weeks. A bubble pop suggests that it would at the very least take many months to build back up. We might hit another bubble, for example if bitcoin jumped up to $10k this year I would say that would likely be a bubble and I would expect a pop and a slow buildup back to the top to take a good part of a year. But simply doubling or tripling in value is not a bubble at this point, it is just bitcoin taking the first small steps into mass market adoption.

It will be a bubble ESPECIALLY if institutional investors join the party. The growth of late has been simply unsustainable. If we got interest from an additional source beyond Japan and the subsequent FOMO buyers and newbies, we would go to 3500, then 1700. And Forbes would talk smack about bitcoin for at least 8 months.

Nah, we can still say its a bubble because prices do really dip on a certain particular time which we can really say that we are still on a bubble but seeing on the news on whats ahead about adoption and acceptance of particular country or service.We would really love to see bitcoins price to go up without looking back on its previous prices but this thing is impossible.

i strongly disagree. what you are saying is only true about bitcoin not all the cryptocurrencies.
outside of here, if you ever get out in the real world, you can clearly see that a very limited number of people have ever heard about bitcoin and when it comes to altcoins nobody has ever heard about them! which menas the altcoins are the usual pump and dump. nothing new.

Not with the hashrate increasing 13% every 2 weeks; it will continue to 5,000 USD by Jan 1 2018. August 1 starts bull run part 2...

That is what I am afraid of. The expansion is abnormally fast and there is too much people going in and buy because they are scared that they might miss the ride "to the moon". It is the typical behavior in the formation of bubbles in the market. I am not saying I do not like it. I do, I am making money same as everyone. But we should not get out of control.


For once I agree with you 100%. I said the same thing in another thread and I got negative feedback.

Dr. Robert Shiller's checklist on how to predict if something is a bubble or not.


Now most of these points can be applied to bitcoins, almost 200% growth in the last few months. Dot-com was a bubble and it popped, and bitcoins are similar to it in terms of technological advancement, almost all technological breakthroughs in the past have caused a substantial impact on the market, no matter how small it was, but the whole concept of bitcoin is different. So is it a bubble? Yes and no. Obviously anyone would get a bit skeptical when a currency has such a tremendous growth in a very short period of time. But mass adoption can be logically applied as a reason behind it.

Being a currency, as far as the user base increases + the areas where bitcoins can be applied increases, it would be in demand, and would not just go out with a burst.

Well, as much as I would want to say that it isn't a bubble, it definitely shows a lot of characteristics of being a bubble. There may be some changes in the future that take us away from looking a lot like a bubble, but for right now, as detailed in a post or a few above mine, there are a fair amount of reasons to call it a bubble.
The blockchain also has to be fixed so that transaction fees don't skyrocket. If we start paying amounts more than that of the fiat counterpart, there will be no more value for Bitcoin as a cheaper means of moving money, something people who want to call Bitcoin a currency couldn't stand to have happen.

The reality is that the real value of XBT is becoming clear: XBT is not a great currency, but rather an excellent store of value.

Merchants will base their savings in XBT for its stability and predictability, and start using technology with more "cash like" features to complete business transactions, such as XMR.

I do not agree your think, we are in a big bubble of crypto market, not only Bitcoin. You can see the value growth of Cryptocurrencies, very more value up to 100-5000% than 3 months ago. Any market or valuable assets normal can't do that, I think we will get a big breakdown value of Crypto Market

All people have the rights on what they will call on this current volatility in price of bitcoins.We can all this as a bubble because after the adoption of bitcoins in huge countries bitcoins rapidly increase and popularity increased too and many new users come to buy bitcoins

It is a rapid expansion indeed but you know what is wrong about rapid growth? It always make the shake so much harder for the investors/holders of a asset. A rapid growth often tends to give fear on investors in which they are afraid that it won't last making them sell their shares even the big players sell there position when they see things are moving fast in which they take advantage of and create a panic selling. This cycle repeats because they will always buy again at a lower price and sell it again when a new high is breached.

Price is volatile in bitcoin, its very known to the all the people in the forum but recent price bumps are moving up due to high rate of adoption from the business whales, many companies trying out to implement the bitcoin as a legal money and Financial sectors trying to implement their own altcoin with the blockchain technology.

that is a wrong definition of a bubble. it has nothing to do with who and how many are talking about it.
the correct definition is this:
"A bubble is an economic cycle characterized by rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction. It is created by a surge in asset prices unwarranted by the fundamentals of the asset and driven by exuberant market behavior."

there is no easy way to say what price is the intrinsic values are so it is hard to say for sure that if it is a bubble or not.

is bitcoin in a bubble? maybe, but if it is, that bubble is not that big because we have already seen a lot of price drops (correction, contraction, crash, dump or whatever you want to call it) some of which have been big and they corrected the price and after that price is still rising.

are altcoins in a bubble? i say yes. there is no reason for most of them to rise and it is purely "exuberant market behavior" leading to a fake price.

Bitcoin has already experienced bubbles.But this time,its not a bubble.People all over the world have realized the true potential of bitcoin.Bitcoin price is yet to rise more.

lol 100k now it's impossible but 10k is doable, but it won't be stable, it willr eturn to 3k or 5k

That is strange, because everybody who I see in real life is talking about bitcoin. CNBC posts like 5 articles per day about bitcoin. Awareness of bitcoin has never been anywhere remotely close to as high as it is today.

Furthermore, bitcoin's price has increased by nearly 300% in the last 3 months, but its adoption and intrinsic value has not increased by even close to that amount, meaning there is a growing disparity between value and price caused by the over-buying frenzy we are seeing today.

Lastly, bitcoin has formed bubbles over and over again consistently for as long as it has existed. Why is it that you think it is different this time? There were about a thousand posts on this forum in 2013 about how it is not a bubble.

I think you re right, despite the remarked rising of its price, Bitcoin still not yet known by everyone worldwide and it not yet the subject of the talkings of people. But it is also obvious that the increasing of price spread the word about Bitcoin lastly

Yes it's a bubble in the history of BTC, IMO.
It seems like late 2013, and if you just look at the graph I've made, the price is just folowing the red average line, so it should drop near 1500$ and stabilizing after that, why?
Because everybody who hold BTC wants benefits, because everybody need money even if they believe in crypto, and I do so, so selling now, taking benefits, then buying later when it is lower.... history is cyclic.
Now take a look at the asks/demands and you'll see that the demand is minor, so the price of BTC should drop.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't hold.

http://i132.photobucket.com/albums/q21/sauleaujerome/Capture%20decran%202017-06-08%20a%2012.25.04.png

Eron ~ you can't compare current situation with how things were back in 2013. If you look completely unbiased, then without a doubt the peak back then was a 100% bubble.

Currently, the demand has been coming from all over the world, and can be seen as a legitimate form of growth. Is the price overbought? Maybe, but we'll see what happens.

I don't see anything bad in a correction of 10-20% in the coming weeks, and that's all normal in a speculative market, but there is no way I can see the price fall back all the way to the $1000 mark.

The famous Bitcoin Pizza which pegged the price of 10,000 BTC to ~$20 or $25 USD recently would have been worth about $28,000,000.


~$23 USD >> $28,000,000 is not "the very start of exponential growth"*, sorry.
*Edit: Price growth no longer a baby, "exponential growth" in usage is still possible, but....

Fees are high and merchants can't give refunds, so "exponential growth" in usage is NOT still possible, so...
Sadly, this long-term Bull is concerned we are promoting a Tulip Bubble Ponzi Mania, & I wish it was not so obvious.
 

I also do not call it as a bubble because I know it is a real increase in the price of bitcoin because of the increase of the real users of bitcoin and a bubble occur when there is a news of price increase to a specific value and people are waiting for that price and everyone sell panic at that stage and the price drop down again. But this time it is not the situation of bubble but people like and are adopting bitcoin for their living.

Like it or not the price rise is not a bubble. i like to deal with numbers. Check the starts.
1.) number of transactions has increased ( i mean real transactions like buying of goods and services and not buying to stuck and sell  for profit letter. these are mini transactions which mean the local man himself is in the game not only the gurus)
2.) market cap has increased break new all time high
4.) More and more people are trusting the technology and day passes
3.) The awareness is growing more and more people are knowing about bitcoin and crypto technology. Am from Africa and when i tell you more people are becoming aware i mean it. all people around me are wanting to know about this new tech and they are learning and getting in to it..
4.) More are more industries and technologies want to incorporate block chain technology in their business for all the crypto advantages. i mean banks are now incorporating block chain technologies in their transactions and other companies too are doing same in their own departments for different reasons that suits their interest
5.)every body here and there is accepting bitcoins.
6.)The rise of alt coins. the number of alt coins are growing exponentially meaning more and more people are begging to realize that every thing needs to go crypto. and believe me every idea you can think of now there is team trying to turn it in to crypto..

 my take ;;
  People are have begin to seeing the real value of bitcoin. for me the the price is just catching up with itz value and this is just the start.....
 the world is sick. people need something to trust (not some body because till date all those we have trusted has disappointed us in one way or the other) , people need transparency and above all people need freedom.
 testing period for crypto is over and people are now convinced...
 Yes it will always get some corrections here and there it may even go down to 1500 but certainly it will go up and within 10years to come a single satoshi will have a dollar price
 the rise in price is not a burble ,,

Hi Bitholder,
My bad I wanted to tell that it should drop about 1000$, not at 1000$, so between 1500/2000$ and I agree with you for the rest.
As I said it's a bubble in the history of BTC, not that BTC is a bubble, so it is clear that the price should go up after the correction ;)

That's not really true...a bubble refers to the artificial inflation of the price of something because of some unjustified belief that it is more valuable than it really is. TBH I'm not sure if BTC is in a bubble state right now, but the argument can be made that the recent jumps in price don't reflect the actual value of the currency, and are therefore bound to drop

how can you know that we are not in a bubble now, how can someone draw the line between an unjustified belief and a legit price increae? it's very hard to know if we are going to crash or set a new bottom higher than current value, for me only a crash of 100% or more is a bubble, small crash are not a bubble imho

I don't think that it is really hard to do

It may be hard to estimate or assess, but this is a different task, anyway. Bitcoin intrinsic value comes from its transactional utility, i.e. its value as a currency and payment system, and this value Bitcoin would have if we removed it from speculation entirely. How much Bitcoin would cost in that case is unknown, but I don't think very much. Just in case, the value that Bitcoin has for being used a speculative vehicle is certainly not its intrinsic value. In this way, it could be safely claimed that Bitcoin is highly bubbled nowadays

The long term trend is always up and i do expect a range bound trading till August and after that we will see which direction the price will be going,there are many speculations but will it deter the investors and force them to book their profits ,i think they will book their profits and wait for stability.

There are many signs that Bubble can happen but all of those are usually applied outside of the world of Bitcoin. I am not saying that there are no similarities but definitely there are many differences when we compare things to Bitcoin. For many times, there were times when many called Bitcoin as just another bubble but up to now Bitcoin is still going up and can one day be reaching the 10K level.

Came here to basically say just this, completely agree with you.

I think that in theory, it would even be possible to get pretty exact data on how much intrinsic value Bitcoin actually has, by looking at all transactions and sifting out the ones that are tied to anything other than buying, selling or holding for pure speculative purposes.

In practice, it's pretty hard to do since it would be fairly hard to actually tie transactions to specific purposes, despite everything being recorded on the blockchain.

About Bitcoin being in a bubble these past weeks, I think that's pretty obvious, it's not like actual use of Bitcoin has suddenly skyrocketed, apart from Japan perhaps.
Certainly not in a way that warrants this sudden rise in price.

I guess there can be different approaches

We don't necessarily need to analyze Bitcoin transactions as such. We could just look at the turnover rate of merchants that are accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment. It seems that getting this data would be a lot easier. Knowing the amount of goods sold and services rendered in dollar terms (judging by the price of the same goods and services in dollars), we could roughly assess how much Bitcoin would be worth if it were only used for commerce taking a certain number of bitcoins in circulation (and all the way up to the current Bitcoin supply)

Micro bubble ... ;D

Probably a major bubble. But I don't think bubbles are a bug for crypto in terms of interest, I think they are the feature.

I think I agree with OP. It doesnt seem like a bubble in a traditional sense, although there was a lady at a blood clinic who was talking to me about cryptos so its getting more mass adoption as we speak. bubble, maybe not just yet but its getting closer everyday ::)

Do you really think that the bubble is just an added bonus features in the crypto market  ;D that is an outstanding thought,looking at the entire market i could see many alt coins popping their bubble and keeps on coming back and even bitcoin is trying hard to cross $3000 but the bubble keeps on bursting. :D

If people are referring to a bubble like the 2013 bubble, then no. Bitcoin isn't gonna drop down to like $1000 and stay there for a year or two. Adoption is increasing too rapidly and the upwards momentum is too great. As we have seen in recent weeks the "bubble" popped in late May and then you could say again today. But these aren't bubbles. They are just corrections which last a few days or maybe a week or two and then bitcoin breaks new ground. The price increase obviously is going to slowdown at some point soon, possibly there will just be corrections more frequently so growth will be slower, but a bubble this is not.

It's not a bubble because we are slowly correcting on the way up.

LOL
goes down from 3000$ to 2450$ in 2 days... how call you that ? bebble ? bobble ? bibble ? bubble ? :D

The price of Bitcoin is going in both directions, I think that the price will go up more because there is more promotion for it and the people that use it is very likely to share their experiences with Bitcoin. So many people cashed their coins out so we’ll see how it goes.

I sold all mine @ 2760.  When should I try to catch the falling knife?

In addition,there are more countries are adopting now and even recognized it legally. I call it correction as of now and it will bounced back in the coming days. I think its normal in trading there are always ups and downs.

Well I don't consider it's a bubble for the reasons you're stating but I do agree with the fact that is a nascent technology with a rapid expansion. Good observation!  ;)

You seriously call it a bubble because it dropped a few hundred dollars to the price it was like 10 days ago?? hahaha. That is quite a loose interpretation of a bubble. In that case the bitcoin bubble pops every week or so. But of course these are corrections as a bubble is something entirely different.

It's doubtful to say that Bitcoin is bubble . It's being 8 years and above had it being bubble it would have closed down long time back . It has seems many ups and downs . Though it's a volatile but it cannot be said that its a bubble . The dip and increase in price is always a leap which leads to high volatility in market .

Indeed, crypto is designed to bubble.
It is pure bubble.  It's made that way.

Even for random viewers, this rise in BTC price is a "spike" but, There is no guarantee or evidence it will go below the current values, the coin is starting to get more popularity and attention as well as use, I don't see this bitcoin falling down much in the coming period "let alone being a bubble and exploding like the stocks", BTC is much more stable than that.

That has no bearing on whether or not something is inherently overpriced. Look at the housing market from 10 years ago. Things went up in price as a general trend (though there were corrections along the way) and then the bubble burst. That's what people are afraid of