Bitcoin Forum

    Am I the only one that is reminded of the dot com bubble right now? I mean, I have the feeling all these amateur day traders are getting into altcoins and that they're going to freak when they actually have to deal with a bear market. A lot of greed, market looks very vulnerable to me. But how far off is the bear market, and will it his altcoins and bitcoin equally, or just altcoins? How much steam does this bull run have left? Part of me thinks this is just round 1 of the bull run.

i don't know, i have seen this many times before. price drops after a fast rise and everyone starts calling the market as "weak, bear market, vulnerable,..." and price stays at the same level for all that time it is being called different names. and then it starts rising up again!

and at this point it looks the same to me. and the only difference is that we have a big drama on the horizons nothing else!

Bitcoin will become a bear market soon, it has become way too overvalued. I think we will see this begin to happen before 2018.

I see you've been hodling since 2015, so it makes sense for you to see it this way... but do you remember 2013/2014? Or before that? People always call the market weak and people always say bitcoin is about to take off, and it does what it's going to do regardless.

The price does not always go up, and it can't sustain the growth it has been seeing recently. Bitcoin skyrockets like we've seen recently, and then it plunges downward. We've seen this over and over again - last time in 2013/2014. This pattern we are seeing now is very similar to the ones we have seen before.

i don't need to remember it, all the information is out there for anyone to see. the rise or better said pump of 2013 was because of Mt Gox and a fake market that was controlled by only on exchange which controlled over 75% of the bitcoin daily trading volume. and price went up >500% in only 1 month.
a fake rise + 500% rise = it must be bubble and it must burst.

right now things are very different. for the past ~3 years price has been rising with a very strong support and mostly on a slow and steady rise each year going up 120%-200% compared to previous year. so a big rise that stays is not really something strange for bitcoin and doesn't necessarily mean it must come down just because it has gone up!

and what you call "plunge down" has so far been a simple correction that was big only because exchanges have thin orderbooks that when a sell off starts they are filled super fast.

i also like to share this picture i took a while back from stocks market showing Apple and Google shares. the one that looks very similar to bitcoin rise belongs to Apple. and it is always like this with up and coming technologies and investments, there is a slow beginning, then it speeds up because new money "rushes in" and leads to a bubble, the bubble is corrected and the rise continues. right now we are somewhere around the 2013 part of the below chart on the red line aka in a dip after a big rise.

https://i.imgur.com/I05NRrB.jpg

and as i said in my previous post we only have a drama on the horizons and how that drama is going to be will determine which way this dip will go. it can go down if the drama is serious (leading to split, ...) and it can be the end of the downtime and start of the rise if it is resolved.

I don't think the next bear market is far away. Both Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies will go through a bear market. Though I think alts will be more severely impacted. They certainly have risen disproportionately in the bull market.

Bitcoin has a bear market on the rise, that is the obvious third grade signal in front of all.  On the other part of the question, altcoins do not have a common community market.  The volumes do not sustain the smaller coins and because there is blind investing without market capital it is know as a supple market community, being heterogeneous within itself and showing no outward appearance.

It did not rise because of mt gox, it fell because of mt gox. It rose because of hype in China. I'm guessing you were not involved with bitcoin back then?

Furthermore, it was not 500% in one month - more like 1000% in ~3 months. However, just because an asset rises that much does not mean that it is a bubble. That is not what defines a bubble. A bubble is when price rises way way faster than value and price is driven by investor mania rather than intrinsic value.


1. It has been rising for 2, not 3.
2. 120%-200% per year is absolutely INSANE! That is a crazy ridiculous amount for any asset to rise. If you don't see that, then you are very unfamiliar with investing and finance.


The difference here is that Apple's value actually rose this much, whereas bitcoin's value has not. Apple started innovating and coming out with brilliant products that made them a fuck-ton of money. Their value is based on their sales and revenue growth, and this drove their rise in price. Bitcoin's value is driven by adoption, legality, and "spendability", but its price is driven by naive or uneducated investors such as yourself.

I would recommend you spend some time learning about investing and markets rather than trying to get rich quick on crypto. There is a reason the most financially successful people in the world are not involved in crypto.

   This is good analysis, except the bit about the most financially successful people.

   Some of the most financially successful people in the world started out in disruptive industries like telecommunications, for example, and built their fortunes by changing the way everyone does business. The established.elite are.generally the ones who stand to
 lose the most from change, so why would they help develop an industry that is going to cut into their already established wealth? Unless of course they decide it is inevitable, and that they'd better go along than get left behind. When this happens it is one of the things that contributes to these insane rallies.

That's because we haven't reached the tipping point yet.  I mean it would be naive to think that the bull market will go on forever, right?  It all has to go down sometime.  We wouldn't know when tho.  That's the frustrating part.

Internet bubble was different, you know, some big guys put several billions into it and lots of people make more than they are making with crypto now.

I think this is like the internet by the end of the 1980's, if you want to make a comparasion

Well a Bear Market correction is due after these type of rallies the question is how long of a duration is it, the marketplace tends to lean towards shaking all the weak hands out of it before starting a new rally cycle and that can take months or years on the slow side of things.
Either way it does depend on when the tipping point is due.

Cryptocurrencies have diverged.  By this point it's too late for alts to crash entirely because they're becoming very deeply known and established.  So I think the next bear market will affect both Bitcoin and altcoins roughly equally.

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The main triggers of the next bear market would be either:

-SegWit fails to activate again, ETH's lack of scalability makes crypto look bad in general.

-SegWit activates but the Lightning Network doesn't live up to high expectations in terms of merchant adoption --> crypto is believed to be in a speculative bubble --> bear market.

The next bear market will be quite severe if you ask me and a lot of people will have bought in far too late/get scared.

The stock market is set in the current state of being a "tempered community", showing outward appearance at a near constant 20% and propagation within that is small, but constant and tight.  There are simply too many altcoins that go completely off the reservation, too many unaccounted burned coins and too many coins without any market capital, that makes a sub-communal market and within that market, no bears are coming out of the cave this year.

Just like the stock market there are a load of uneducated, misinformed and downright wrong people that grab a handful of their money and go off to the races.

exactly.
but unlike stock market there are a lot of spammers who think if they make a lot of comment about something then it will come true because people fall for it. the strategy is also known as spreading FUD.
this is actually why this board is so active mostly during times like this. and also why so many accounts "wake up" at times like this 8)

   By money heaven you don't mean 'to the moon,' right?

Also this raises the question, if there is money heaven, is there money hell? That must be what happens to fiat.

It is likely only your feelings and fears

Unless Bitcoin crashes into the wall at full throttle (e.g. due to SegWit debates), it is unlikely to tank massively. We have seen a lot of efforts aimed at doing exactly that but ever since it has started growing from 200 dollars per coin in 2015, it was making higher lows and then going for an ATH at the end of every cycle. Bitcoin gets publicity and recognition today, so, as I said, unless it gets eaten by its inner issues, it will likely continue to grow. Major altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead. Some of them can crash, of course, or even kick the bucket in the end, but this is not written in stone

The only thing that the TLD's and Bitcoin have in common is the fact that they could be had for free for many moons and then they were a valued item.  Dot coms showed a pop and drop, then stablized, there is no telling where the Bitcoin price will finally settle.

Alt coins are just a means to an end and something for the new guys to play with because they don't know what to do now that they have Bitcoins.  Once the news dies away and August is over, then the real traders will control the prices again full score.