Bitcoin Forum

I'm thinking about adjusting my portfolio for the eventual bear market (if that comes in the next few days/week/months who knows).

My portfolio contains 30 % BTC, 15% ETH and the remainder in alts.

How would you adjust the portfolio to maintain maximum value and capitalize on the financial opportunities of a bear market?


My own thoughts are that BTC is less overbought than ETC and the altcoin market and so would lose less of its value in a crash.

So perhaps moving to BTC to consolidate my position would be a good idea? Or even convert to BTC then to USDT and buy BTC after the crash.


Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks

I'm not sure if everyone knows what the bear market is.... I don't atleast...

So could you explain what the bear market is? (And maybe include it in your original post?) Not everyone knows all the trading terms and I think we would only be able to stimulate the conversation also :)

Thanks in advance!

Regards,
Trump

A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time, the opposite of a bull market.

Back to what the OP is asking, I don't personally rely on altcoins much. I would covert everything to Bitcoin and wait for the trend to change; we can feel the fear in the air for what's coming in few months and I'm sure many holders are thinking about selling before anything goes wrong, but that's a personal choice I wouldn't support.
Drops and heavy fluctuations in price are a common thing in the bitcoin market, but from what we've seen in the last few years they are always followed by an increase.

Altcoins have shown greater growth than BTC that's why I''m so heavily invested in them.

I also feel like the altcoin correction will be larger than the BTC correction.

I think I'll take some profit from my alts and move it to BTC.

My gut feeling is that BTC will correct by 25-35% but alts will lose 40-60%.

THis will give me a good chance to buy the alts on the cheap.

Ah, thanks for your explanation. That clears things up a bit :P
I still suggest putting it in the Original Post though..

Regards,
Trump

I'm actually already adjusted to the make up that I'm comfortable with - and this was planned without taking into account any bear or bull market. The make up is only to protect from worst-case scenario (crash). That said, I do try to pick new assets to keep on diversifying.

I will allow the movement for about hours starting from what I think is the start of the bearish market. Whatever the losses it will made is fine because that is the risk. Will note the prce changes for 30mins interval.

If there's no such thing as wide bear movement, while at the same time altcoins fighting for resistance, then I will just leave as it is. Bitcoin on the other hand can recover even just by few days after a bear market. Same with some altcoins like Etherium. If you have some SIA, STR, Ripple, NEM (these are just examples); then definitely I will sold them now if I anticipate that more dumps will follow. It's hard to predict anyway so we might made a mistake when doing such moves.

If the bear market started tomorrow, i will do cut lost in my positions of trading
it will stop losing my money because of down trend,
i will be waiting for long time until the trend of price going back
i will put my funds in fiat money to safe my asset than put them on digital coins.

I personally won't do anything as I value my coins too much to blatantly convert them to any sort of altcoin. My stance is to use the decreasing price in my advantage to expand my holdings in Bitcoin.

What I might have done before the altcoin industry almost exploded in value, was opening a substantial position in Litecoin and Namecoin. But I find it too late to hop in, so I won't.

I would however advice you to decrease your position in ETH as it is insanely overbought. Either convert it to USDT, or use its higher price to convert it directly to BTC.

Almost everyone knows what a bear market is.  It was also easy information for you to search for.

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Personally, I would move most of the ETH out - it's way overvalued, but it's just very hard to tell when the end of that situation will happen - it could go a lot higher first.

 Some of the portfolio would go into safe-ish alts like Byteball and Maidsafe (maybe some Litecoin or Monero), some would go into BTC, and the majority would go into fiat.

As the price of BTC drops I'd gradually buy in in increments, just a little bit at a time.  By the end the majority of the money would be in BTC, and when the bear market ends I'd put any remaining fiat into BTC and slowly start diversifying back into stable alts.

All USD, not USDT.

There would be no 'safe havens', not at these price levels.

The question is whether such vast increases find a similarly vast floor. I don't really see what's there to support it. None of these coins have delivered anything of real value yet.

Check what happened to alts after 2013. Now that's an exceptional case of course but is there ultimately any difference in how empty most of these projects are?

I dont have to adjust. I will stay to bitcoin no matter what happen. And since I'm busy with my daily job and I won't rely for now with a lot of alt coins. Though I have some alt coins but I will keep on holding it, the way what I do with my bitcoins. And I'm reading a lot of positive news with ETH. I guess it will be the majority's second choice.

My friend, this is the Trading Discussion section. Anyone who takes the time to participate in this section should have a minimum trading knowledge. Talking about bear markets is so basic to any trader with minimal experience that I actually wonder if you are just posting that question here just to accumulate posts. In these times of Google solutions is enough to simply write "What is bear market" to find ample information about it instead of turning this important discussion into a kind of "vocabulary for beginners".

Thanks for all the useful advice guys.

My plan :

I'll reduce the amount of ETH I hold and convert to BTC.

Take profit from the weaker alts that I'm holding.

Hodl the stronger altcoins that have actual value.

Keep some low-cap alts hoping for 100x in the future.



Any thoughts on the best exchange to move BTC to fiat and then rebuy BTC after the price drops?

I'd imagine some exchanges may go down if the blood really starts to flow...

I mostly use bittrex and am UK based If that makes a difference.


Thanks

If you're in the UK and you sell to buy back later, that sell qualifies for capital gains tax even if you don't withdraw it from the exchange if it's over £11,200 or so. That's why many people short instead.

Ok.

What's the best platform to short on then.

Thanks

If you assume that I know that bear market will start tomorrow, I would make the 50% of the portfolio fiat currency. I would not take the risk of holding them during the bear market.

Oh FFS, look it up.  If you don't know what a bear market is, then you need to just sit quiet and listen on this forum and not post so much.  Oh wait, then you wouldn't get paid for shitposting!

OP,  do whatever lets you sleep at night.   Me, I think crypto is crazy risky and I don't have even 1% of my assets in bitcoin at any given time.  I own no altcoins because I think they're crap.  Lately I've been spending whatever bitcoin I earn on cheap thrills.  To each his own.

Well being as if my entire portfolio is already in USD, I probably wouldn't be adjusting anything when it comes to my Bitcoin portfolio. Or my lack of a portfolio for that matter. What I'd probably do is buy in cause this price would be a MUCH MUCH lower price then now if we were to go from FULL RAGING BULL to the complete bear which would be insane to see.


Would probably be the time of a lot of panic selling for the people that've thought Bitcoin and altcoins were going to be easy money (Kinda like the right before the great depression, hehe) and then I'd buy in to make a killer when everything recovers or at least goes to 25 percent of its intial price from the bull market.

So, I'd buy.

my strategy has always been to trade bitcoin when its future is clear, like when it is easier to speculate a big rise or a big fall and then stay away (meaning to transfer all my bitcoin to cold storage) when i can't speculate it.

as for altcoins, holding them in my opinion is a dumb move. they are easily manipulated and their dumps are hard and irreversible. and there isn't really a bear market in altcoins there is only pump and dumps and there is always at least one pump going on that you can take advantage of.

In a situation where you think crypto is entering a bear market, I would recommend investing in stocks instead. You can make a lot more money in stocks than crypto in general anyway. If the crypto market starts going down hill, both ETH and BTC will decline significantly, as well as every alt coin. By putting your money in stocks you still enjoy a lot of potential upside (more, in fact) and you don't take on the high risk of a crypto bear market.

Actually "Bitcoin is less overbought" and as such the wisest thing to do incase of downward price or bearish market is to covert 80% of my portfolios to Bitcoin and 20% to new ICO. Ethereum is overbought and litecoin and dogecoin are very unpredictable.

Like now - it's looking like scaling will be implemented, so it's a big buy (unless the code is buggy as hell, which it could be).
Unfair generalisation.  Some altcoins were relatively stable until just a few months ago when this crazy bull market/arguably bubble started (even ETH, for example).  Furthermore, some altcoins grow in a reasonably way - Byteball for example is distributing to Bitcoin holders and to existing Byteball holders, which makes the value of people's holdings increase as more Bitcoin holders get involved.

Furthermore, the majority of altcoins are traded against Bitcoin, and many of the major altcoins' charts have run nearly parallel to Bitcoin recently due to the overall bull market and trading against BTC.

I have been through a massive bear market already. I took advantage of the price that just wouldn't go over the $300 level back in 2015. I remember how certain people were speculating about the price to fall below the $200 level again, just in order to push others towards selling their coins. :D It's exactly the same sort of fud/trolling that we experience right now, but then at such insanely low levels.

I never bother about bear markets because I am not holding any altcoins in my long term portfolio. I am having big faith on bitcoins and also so far bitcoin is bouncing back more quickly regardless of how heavily it did get dumped. So, I am not worrying any time to adjust my investments plans according to sudden market condition changes.

I guess only altcoin investors must need to sell off quickly before bear markets starts otherwise they may need to wait for longer periods to recover their capital.

Your plans are seeming very good but I just want to know what you have been doing when bitcoin prices falling from ~$900 in 2014 and 2015 to $200 price levels ? If you were into bitcoin trading at those times, I guess as per your above statement, you must be holding your bitcoins for years so that you will be recovering over losses slowly.

I mean to say that adjusting portfolio is always good. Somethings those adjusting portfolio might help us to prevent holding and waiting to recover losses.