Bitcoin Forum

I am a long term HODLer and believer in BTC.

I have been adding to my position since 2013. and sold 0 BTC over time.
Obviously I am happy with the development but the worm of greed is always digging in the back of my mind. Could I increase BTC if I sold BTC for some fiat or Tether before correction and add more BTC when the correction ends.

I had no problem holding BTC when it crashed from 900$ to 200$ but I would have mental issues if I converted 1 BTC to 2400$ and had to buy again at 2500$ thus diminishing my BTC stash.

Are there any long term HODLers who are succesful at employing this tactic of buying corrections? If so I would like to hear your strategy. Thanks.

I think that it should be crystal clear to anyone that bitcoin prices always come in cycles, and block halving is the start of each cycle. Usually you see that bitcoin activity drops dramatically around 1.5 years after the block halving, nobody talks about it, mainstream media goes dead, price is just stable-ish. THat's the right time to buy. Take a look at google search trends: https://trends.google.com.au/trends/explore?q=bitcoin you'll see each halving brings a new round of enthusiasm, topping the last.

So, if you want to start trading as well as holding, then the logical thing to do is to buy in between halvings when price is low, and sell around 1 year after the halving when the hype is the biggest.

So i suggest that if you're a long term holder, hold at least 60% in bitcoin under all circustances at all times. Use the 40% to trade only.

I read that only 10% of Bitcoin traders make a profit, the other 90% make a loss. You could try test trading using pretend coins on paper, but it's different when you are gambling with real money.

Timing the market can be a real bitch. It's easy to look at the past price charts and think "I should've sold on that spike and buy back on that dip", but doing it real-time is a whole different story. You'll likely get burnt on bull/bear traps eventually.

But if you're tempted to try, why not set aside some round amount in a cold storage and play around with the rest, either by speculating only on BTC/USD rate, or also on altcoins.


Source?

+2 and i have tried ... to win (like all, to test with 10% of my bitcoins).
you can't win when you try at regular interval.

oh, and, when you win ... you always has a problem on the corner : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN4RdrN80ic

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img921/333/Phjezl.jpg

you cannot trade and win, as you have to pay a percentage on every trade and cannot know the future.

you could get lucky but the longer you trade the more likely you will even out to a loss on percentage.

traders do provide stability to the market.

hodl and invest in ico's as a hedge is far more sure than to trade.

1 btc into ETH at the  is worth between 500K~and $1M (about 750K).

Good luck trading into that with $500 from 2014 to now.

of course thier is also a lot of luck in ICO's and most of them will go to zero.

I think you have to diversify into a few alts though...which is kinda different to "tradeing" os more like hedging you position.

Eg Crypto is going to the 20T mark, but I don't know if it will be BTC taking the lions share, it could go to zero and ETH, IOTA, PPC, NEM, LTC, DOGE taking the market.

There is something weird about that trends stats. Nigeria at 100 points while all other countries are well below 50 (except Ghana with 75)? :o what? There must be something wrong with the stats, or there is beginning of bitcoin fever spreading through Nigeria/ west Africa :)

It's Google.

Yeah, there's no way I'm doing that.  You'll lose even more coins doing that than in trading.

I think I have read something similar a year or two ago, but that was related to the stock market, and how rookies are getting burned by their greed and emotions.

If we look at the crypto market, it would be easy to assume that the similarities are there, but we can't ignore that this is a market working 24/7, while that isn't the case with stocks.

But obviously, the far majority of the traders end up losing. It's practically impossible to put in into perspective in terms of percentages ~ only exchanges can come close to that.

there's a lot of sources you can get when you reading a lot too ,
this is what i frequently visit http://www.tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money/ , and also at quora https://www.quora.com/Do-90-of-day-traders-lose-money ,
in trading forum this kind question always popping up and it's not a new thing.

If you are smart enough to invest in good projects then there is no doubt that you could multiply your investment without much hurdle and if you are not having any plans to withdraw the coins and convert them into fiat ,then there is nothing to worry as there are really good projects and trading opportunities to multiply you bitcoin.

+1

There have been countless studies that calculate the percentage of profitable traders, and actual figure varies depending on the study. Most of them agree that the majority of traders lose and a small percentage are profitable. As an example a businessinsider page says 6% are profitable, but an investopedia page says only 1% are predictably profitable.

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-percentage-of-traders-make-it-2011-6?IR=T


http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/053115/average-rate-return-day-traders.asp

I am also bitcoin HODLER. I didnt sell bitcoins I got since late 2015. It is not big anyways.
I made good money comparing to such small amount I invested. But my portfolio could be lot bigger if I day traded with altcoins. But noone expected altcoins to be this much big.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbiWJYRg8luWHnmNkJRZEnw
https://twitter.com/ToneVays seems right about 6 times out of 10

I admire you for having no sold bitcoin up til now. Because when I started to use bitcoin I had sold 50% of my total holdings.


This is a popular way of trading bitcoin, selling it for fiat and wait for the dip.


I'm always wait to sell before a correction happens.

If you do not know anything about trading, then just forget about, you are going to lose your money, and then you will get less bitcoin as a result, holding is not the most profitable way but it is the safest and easiest way to make money.

I made a decent bit of profit throughout the last months due to the volatility. I just ride the waves every now and then where I book a solid 5-10% per wave (we've had quite some of them lately). I am a not the typical trader that is constantly keeping an eye on the market, but more act accordingly at the time an opportunity presents itself. If that means I have to wait a few weeks before I open or close a position, no problem at all -- there is no point into rushing things.

I'm a long term holder too, although you have to admit that there are certain tendencies that the market always follows. For one, each halving will bring a new round of pumping, and after around 2 years after thehalving the market quietens down.

You definitely had balls to hold bitcoin from $900 to $200 and back up to $2500 right now, i actually bought at just above $1000 and sold at $700.

The thing about long term holding is that you don't get affected by the price at all. A lot of the times if you are looking to trade short term you will be easily motivated by rumours and news that really is just a short term phenomenon, and it makes you lose your long term vision. But oftentimes it will indeed mean that you're losing out on some profits.

i simply increase my BTC stash by
- buying more with fiat over time, mostly in dips
- doing some jobs to earn BTC (shaking my money maker ;))
- trading altcoins to dump them after the pump and get more bitcoin out of them.

i have tried bitcoin trading but i don't like the exchanges. i am more comfortable using bittrex than using coinbase, bitfinex, bitstamp, kraken, etc

i have tried trading bitcoin but i never like the exchanges and the risk of them. however i always make sure to do this (meaning to sell on top and buy the correction) when i am almost certain about a correction on the way. for example when the price reached the $2900+ i was nearly certain that if it can't break the $3000 it will drop and it happened.
or when the bitfinex hack happened or lots of other big FUD, these have always been good points to sell some small number of coins to buy them back in a couple of days to hold more coins in the end. and it has worked good so far for me.
my suggestion is do the same as me and make sure to not do it with all your stash. just dedicate some small portion that you are willing to lose and trade with that. exchanges can run away at any moment!

Bitcoin at a first glance promises a lot of opportunities while in reality there is an entirely new story. many people are short sighted and after the first or the first few times losing on trading they become disappointed and leave it be, they can't just hold for longer than a week or even 3-6 months.
Experience has proven to me that you could only earn good profits as well as increasing the coin amount if you are dealing with small amounts.
It's not really easy despite the common believe to add 10BTC if you have 1000BTC the chance of you losing 30BTC in the process of attempting to increase your coin amount is greater than you earning 10BTC extra.

It's possible. For example right now i would definitely go for sell now and then buy when the dip comes before the UASF, because i do think that a lot of impatient people are going to sell ahead of the fork and take their USD for safety.

The thing is though, many times you will fall into the trap of either buying too high and selling to low.

Long term holding should be the go to strategy for anyone, and unless you are extremely confident with your trades, stick to that strategy and that strategy only. Don't bother doing anything fancy because it is likely going to wreck your entire stash of coin. I think i'm a bit like you, i don't mind my coins going down in dollar value, i mind though if i have less coin.

I always look out for repetitive patterns - that's basically my thing. That's why I love how the market has been moving up and down all within the $2000-$3000 levels. With uncertanties around UASF and Segwit2x the market isn't likely to move over the $3000 level, and with support being strong enough, it isn't likely to dump below the $2000 level. It has never been more easy to make a few bucks here.

If you haven't traded ever before, I would be really careful if you want to give it a try.
Use a very small amount and try out how you feel being a active part of the trading market.
If you should come to the conclusion, stick to what you've done so far. Buy with some sapre money every time you can and just hodl the next coming years! Trading is extremely difficult and it could also fu** up your nerves if you lose, even if it's just a small loss. This isn't something for the average joe. You need strong nerves, coolness, patience and a crystal clear mind.

I havent done heavy btc/usd trading for years. I use 20% of my coins to trade altcoins on margin and I cash out all the profits as fiat.

Dude I don't care what you say but nobody could have predicted with certainty that Bitcoin would halt just below $3000. It could have just as easily shot straight to $4000. If you did predict, you got lucky. Could you have predicted that Ethereum would rise from $12 to $400 in one massive bull run?

Many people predicted that Bitcoin would reverse the bull trend after reaching $2000 and sold all their position hoping to buy back below $1500. Well guess what? That never happened and they had to buy back at a higher price. I too sold all my BTC at $1600 and had to buy back at $2500.

The market is a dangerous place and this is why most traders lose money. Atleast my policy is to never sell at a loss, so I only lose out on potential gains by trying to time the market.

Besides trying your nerves trading can make you physically ill if you take it too seriously, and it's difficult not to when gambling a lot of money. Some traders wind up suffering from extreme sleep deprivation after staying awake for days on end waiting for the market to make a move. That alone can make you physically ill.

long term HODLers are mostly old members now and many of them have bought bitcoin very cheap. some even bought it ultra cheap. and if they were wise they have already made a lot of money from it.
for example I have been buying bitcoin ever since it was $400-$500 and was falling down to $200 and up towards today. I have already taken out more than my initial investment in fiat and still have more coins left.

I won't sell because even if price goes down I am still in a huge profit.
even if price goes down more I am still in a huge profit.
even if price goes down a lot more I am still in a huge profit.

... so no you won't get back the coins that I bought from you cheap. I will sell a small portion back to you when price reached $10,000 at least. I will just buy more from you each time you sell in a big dip after a panic sell starts. ;D

Uh, well you're right, long term holders have generally bought bitcoin when it was still really really new and nobody really liked it much, therefore they are able to gain their huge stash of coins for quite cheap. And basically whatever they do, everything is risk free, and they are guaranteed to make profit because no way bitcoin is ever going to go down to $100 per coin again.

However, i'd just like to point out that there are cycles that are proven that you can definitely take advantage of. For instance the halving is the biggest source of hype in the bitcoin world every 4 years, and i haven't seen one halving go by without generating good profits. So i'd suggest sell 50% of your bitcoin when the halving hype is at its highest, buy when the halving hype is gone. You'll easily make an extra 50% on top of your coin every four years this way, but it does come with risks.

Its always something of concern in which it will be so hard to take such decision but there are two ways to go about it;

1. Sell and say bye-bye to bitcoin and just just your massive return on investment by that you would have made tons of percentage returns.

2. Just sell the one you have at this price and wait till when price crash next (if it eventually happen) then buy low and keep long-term again.

Oh yes this is me. I have serious brain/nerve damage from the sequelea of consequences of bitcoin trading and would return every satoshi for my old life back. I also lost a job and spent half of my profits supporting myself for a long time until I found my next job.

I've since learned the secrets of healthy trading. You need to find markets you dont care about (like altcoins) and arent going to need to follow and watch 24/7. Find something that is moving quickly and with volume and go in and out of your trade within minutes or hours. Dont get greedy and have to catch every move. Focus on performing well for a few hours at the desk. Then 'clock out' and go on with a normal life with no charts until you 'clock in' again. If something starts moving at night when you are supposed to go to sleep, forget it and save your energy for another move during the day. You have no guarantee that you are going to make a profit anyway.

Another way is to use the 'set and forget' method that forex and stock traders like. Pick a strategy and place limit and stop orders that will execute on their own. Then commit to your strategy, dont watch the chart, and dont change your orders. The problem is the exchanges arent robust or reliable enough for this. The stop orders on Polo dont even work.

You dont need to get rich quick. If you make 1% per month, you are beating the stock market. If you make 1% per day, you are making a fortune.

And finally: Never trade during low volume. Once things die down you might as well go on a sabbatical.

i didn't say i "predicted it" i said i was nearly certain.
i always say it is about chances in trading. when price was testing the $3000 resistance i decided the chances of a drop in case of failure to break it is higher. so i sold an affordable amount there to make some profit.

could i have been wrong? absolutely yes.
i was thinking the same around $2000 too but the resistance was broken easier and i help off. i was thinking the same all along and i missed the selling on a lot of occasions.

and even if was wrong and price went above $3000 i wouldn't have minded. i was still selling at a big profit and would have bought back what i sold at higher price to enjoy the rise. and as i said it is a "small portion of my stash" so even if i don't buy it back i still have more ;)

What you are suggesting here is nothing else than sell high and buy low! Anything more valuable you would like to add?
It's not that easy to hit the top of a run up or to get the bottom of a down fall. You definitely need some experience and analytical skills here.Otherwise you may miss more profits because you sold too early and just caught the falling knife!
So these suggestions should not be taken by the average joe out there.
To try these every 4 years is way too risky if you have no further experience!And to get that experience you need to trade regularly!
Therefore I recommend to buy everytime a few bits when people can afford it to increase their stash.

I try to buy in the corrections but I also will buy some of the major altcoins if they have a correction. I'm trying to diversify a little because some of the altcoins appear to be catching upbto Bitcoin a little. I don't know if any will catch Bitcoin but some could have bigger gains than Bitcoin going forward.

Yes, there are people who are using bitcoins for business from its birth in 2009. They have saved a lot of bitcoins since 2009. Long term holders mostly keep their coins in two categories. One in which they put the savings and other in which they keep the bitcoins to do the trading.

Many people have adopted these ways since 2009 and are getting profits of millions since then. You just need to learn the skills need and before long you will also be trading and stashing thousands of bitcoins.

when you invest in bitcoin you accept the risks, when you start to pick up trading too then you have to also accept the risks of trading. and there are a couple of big ones like exchanges running away or you making a couple of  bad decisions that can easily lead to losing half of your capital.

that is why in my opinion if you have been long term HODLer so far, then continue being that. don't try to jump in unknown waters just yet.

You can understand when the price of Bitcoin rising up 50%, altcoin will better than, maybe 60-75% after a crash, because amplitude fluctuations of Altcoin usually interesting than Bitcoin and can make extra profit from that

Op, I understand that all you need is more coins and it is perfectly fine. I was the same as you, but I realised that I cannot have it all.
For now I am now perfectly fine with the stash I have, although I own a pretty insignificant number of coins.
I thought many times that I would be most efficient way to simply sell at high and rebuy at low but in the end, but it is a bit much hassle for me.