Bitcoin Forum

There are much speculation about "buy more Bitcoin", "wait August 1 to accumulate more Bitcoins"...

But it's not so clear yet, what are the chances to have a split on the chain? High? Low? 50%/50%?

What is most likely to happen? (expert's opinions if possible, please).

People expecting that there are fluctuations in the value of bitcoins in coming August. But, we don't know the exact information regarding on the subject. We will hope best and wait for around 20 days to watch the bitcoin situation in the market.

Based on public announcements over 80% of bitcoin miners will have switched to the btc1 client (https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/releases/tag/v1.14.3) (Segwit2x) and 148 will not happen. It will be interesting to see what the miners really do over the next few weeks. Since Jihan Wu supports btc1 and either owns or indirectly has control over the majority of bitcoin mining power this has to be taken seriously.

Experts are saying that there's a pretty high chance for a split. Some people say that a split will move Bitcoin's value down but I don't think that's what will happen. I think post-split things will be much clearer and the decentralized Bitcoin will have more room to grow

If over 80% of miners are running the btc1 client by August 1 there will be no split. Control of bitcoin will transfer from Core to the developers behind btc1 however. Here is (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/) a guide to the action.

It won't bring value down more than a normal correction that we've seen many times before.
When altcoins fork people switch to a better chain and that one increases in value because confidence rises.
I think we will activate 2x and Bitcoin's value will go up rapidly, similar to Litecoin's value after segwit.

Wow, this situation is so confuse... Too many "Bips" and different Bitcoins. Seems it will be impossible to avoid a hard-fork, no? Because there are those Bitcoin ABC, 148 Bitcoin, NewPow Bitcoin, Legacy Bitcoin...

I think it's too early to have a prediction, maybe in 2-3 weeks we can have a more accurated prediction about it.

the worst scenario is bitcoin will be split into another one and we have the same balance with bitcoin we have. i don't know what will happen with the price, if its down again too far or not and what will happen with the new bitcoin. there is many scenario that people out there made and i think its make traders in the market got panic so they are sold their bitcoin so fast without thinking because they don't want to risk their money in bitcoin.

The customer is king. If enough users will be pro-active in their choice it will be the protocol miners will have to follow.

The Chinese bitcoin miners are in favor of the NYA. If 80% of miners start mining using btc1 before end of July we should have an orderly transfer of power. We will see how it goes on July 21 when miners are supposed to switch from Core to btc1. NYA is the carrot; Bitmain also has a stick in the form of a UAHF (https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/) to wipe out any BIP148 chain. Own your own private keys and don't transact after July 31 until the dust settles.

This is what I heard as well. About 80% support right now for SegWit, it is very unlikely 148 will happen.

Even an expert here can't tell you the accurate thing to happen. You are asking some things that is answerable by speculations. There are scenarios given on what will happen. With just a simple search about what will happen on August 1, it's enough for someone to make a possible moves.

Take the risk or believe in bitcoin - it's all up to you.

nothing major about bitcoin as majority don't know what that disaster is, even with widespread, if it is wide enough won't result of ultimate drop of bitcoin price for some reason i don't understand.

UASF if segwit2x will fail to activate before august it's goal is to activate segwit before UASF activates thus, minimizing chain split but its more likely the segwit2x will activate first because according coin.dance segwit2x has 80% hashrate although it intentional but it will remain until the signal date.

Even an expert cannot say what will happen in the august 1st but for sure we do not need to worry about things since some say that it will just fix some of its problem especially the transactions. But I hope the splitting matter would not happen. Splitting will create many complications and it will not be good for bitcoin is the short term.

i agree
i really dont know what to expect
but honestly im not worried at all
im just hoping i have money to bitcoin if it will really flactuate

Most likely scenario is there will be no hardfork of any sorts. Both Jarzikcoin and BIP148 will get nowhere, and we'll get segwit throw other means.

But it's anything it's possible. If they fork the chain they are fucked, do not buy these fake bitcoin coins by any means.

Be ready by downloading a Bitcoin Core full node and enjoy a peace of mind while the idiots have an headache. Just keep your Bitcoin safe with a full validating node and you are going to win in he long term.

Strictly speaking, no.  That's not accurate.  Core do not have control over Bitcoin, thus there is no transfer of control to anyone.  It would be more accurate to state that (if over 80% of miners are running the btc1 client by August 1) there would then be a change in consensus which Core can either opt to include in their product or not.  There is no change to the established power structure, as merely being a developer for what tends to be referred to as the "reference client" is not the same thing as being in control of Bitcoin.

It sounds like a small technicality, but I assure you it's a crucial distinction to make.  Often people comment about centralisation of mining whilst openly advocating centralised development to combat it.  Both are dangerous in their own way and neither should be openly embraced out of fear of the other.  Both mining and development should remain as decentralised as practicality permits.

With the uncertainty leading up to Aug 1, BTC is likely to drop in price short term due to this. Expect this uncertainty to infect the altcoin markets in general, but look at safe harbours in the top. I think ETH, LTC and XRP during this period will be good.

We'll have bitcoin with segwit activated. Low transaction fees, fast payments, you know, high tech stuff.

If the majority of the users and a considerable amount of miners support this, we'll have no problem and that will be the new bitcoin. After all those talk about scaling problems and for people who wanted a solution, now is our chance. Support the upgrade and let's make bitcoin great once again.

Market Domination >%90 incoming!

If I have the coins stored on an offline Armory computer, are they safe after the possible aug1 split. Will I be able to import the keys onto a new chain and double them? Thanks!

At the risk of setting unrealistic expectations for newer users, such boundless enthusiasm should probably be reigned in and clarified.  SegWit transactions won't become valid on the network with immediate effect, that comes slightly later.  And even once you can transact in that format, you first need to transfer your balances from the current format of keypairs to the new SegWit format addresses.  All this will take time.  Users should be under no impression that there will be some rapid reduction in fees or confirmation times around either August 1st, or when SegWit first activates.  In fact, there is a chance that both fees and confirmation times may initially increase while users suddenly start moving coins they've been hodling for some time to shuffle them over to new keypairs.  There could well be increased demand for the base block space in the short term.

Maybe keep the hype down to a dull roar to avoid disappointment from people getting the wrong idea, followed by the inevitable accusations of promises that might initially appear broken.  Such fallout should be expected to an extent due to the hype that generally permeates the forums, but don't cause more complaints than there otherwise needs to be by painting too rosy a picture.  In fact, I'm tempted to suggest to a mod some form of sticky/pinned thread on this particular subject.

I agree with you 95%, but feel Segwit is dead and won't go forward after it fails again. Miner support for Segwit2x will pull back below 80% before activation (payback for the breach of the Hong Kong Agreement), and BIP148 will die in a fire. If Lukejr is stupid enough to "change the POW", he'll be the cult leader of a zombie Ethereum Classic-type shitcoin.  

This month will definitely be an interesting ride. Interesting how different the opinions are on this thread and others like it.

As of now, there are no certainties about Bitcoin chain split on August first or after it. All of us are just waiting for a proof and valid news about what will really happen. However, there are some safety precautions released in order to guide everyone on what should they do to keep their Bitcoins safe if ever a split will occur or not. Better than safe than sorry.

Refer to this link as a guide made by theymos himself: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2017191.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2017191.0)

Could you explain what exactly "own your own private keys" means?  I know it means your coins should not be with an exchange/third party holder.  What if the coins are in a Bitcoin Core wallet?  Does that qualify?

I think he is saying it this way, that hokd and control your private keys. Have full control on it, not just remember it but write it and have some back up. So that you can recover it anytime and if the split happens your bitcoins will be safe. In your case that it is in bitcoin core, its safe.

Dump and pump, The days after the hardfork will be vertiginous, a spectacular price recovery

Bitcoin is so volatile lately and due to some price drops, it is good to buy some. However, we cannot completely say when is the best time for the users to buy. No one really knows what will be the price is before, on, and after August 1st. Since there is no formal and concrete claims about the possible split then all are still waiting for a reliable report about it. So for the time being, keep your Bitcoins safe by having them in a wallet where you fully control your private keys. Avoid placing them in an exchange or online wallet. If it happens that you have some coins on an exchange, withdraw them to a safe wallet. That way, you will not be scared of what may happen next.

Fear for what will happen on August 1 alone have a massive effect specially on the price of bitcoin. Much more fear will spread when an actual split happens. So wait for the price to drop before buying bitcoin then wait for bitcoin to recover.


It just means that you should have control over your private keys, not the exchanges or third party. Just avoid any wallet that do not give you control over the private keys, mostly web wallets.

Sooner or later we'll need to get something rolled in to allow full lightning network transactions in order to take over the world the proper way (not having insanely big block sizes). If it's not segwit, then it must be something that alllows everything that segwit allows. It's stupid to not fix everything that segwit fixes, but not forking is a priority over everything. We can't have 2 damn bitcoins.

If luke does that, he said he will go and create it's own altcoin so it's not really a problem.

There are widely speculations and rumors about the upcoming Segwit event for the next 2 weeks which is quite far from now. It is said that there will be a chance of price dump or a chance of price pump after the said event. But that was just a mere speculation as for this time. We are still waiting for the update for that events result. But it is now quite alarming due to the reason that bitcoin now dumps it price value. An alarming sign that quites make many users panic of what will happen for the next 2 weeks.

It is said that there is an upcoming event for a week or two weeks from now called Segwit. There are spreading news, rumors and mere speculations that there will be a split on bitcoin's price value meaning there is a 50-50 chance that price value will be lead into pump or dump. But we are still hoping and waiting for that event to see the effect of the said event on bitcoin's price value.

Current data show over 86% support for SegWit2x, https://coin.dance/blocks

Miners should start signaling it in 6 days, so having in mind current data, there will be no fork Aug 1.

Sure, there will be a planned fork in 3 months time if SegWit2x gets activated.

Is it good for large mining companies to make decisions about BTC faith like this? Well, I dont see a better option, there need to be some way of decision making. You cannot really expect an ordinary BTC holder who owns 2.5 BTC to be the one who can participate in the decision making process.

Have all answers.
Easy topic:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2007635.msg19988238#msg19988238
Complex topic:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2018878.msg20119234#msg20119234

This summer will be very interesting in regards to the Bitcoin protocol. Im guessing a non event. In others NOTHING will happen (like the year 2000 when everyone said all the worlds computers would switch off). Bitcoin will remain 100% the same as it is today and we will most likely get a scaling solution sometime at the end of the year. The BIP148 was a threat to the miners to call their bluff. But the miners are being very brave here, they know they have power and they are also being backed by the majority of big bitcoin businesses and organisations. The small guy (i.e. the user has NO say here. Sad but true).

Yeah! It was the upgraded of bitcoin. I think that was not too dangerous to those who are afraid in segwit and it was not too happiness to those who are planning to buy bitcoin at cheap price because what I know is that they only upgrade the bitcoin for the faster transaction and more high-tech than now. There are two thought comes from my mind, maybe they freeze the bitcoin price until 20 days or maybe it will go down in about 50$.

i agree with u with my lifetime saving on bitcoin now....just hope i can buy a few more if price dip deeper during this fud event.....hahaha ;D5

I don't think anything will happen, what is most likely to happen is that the price maybe it could go up, after people have been paniking for no reason  ???

i think if after people realize that it's just FUD, the price could go up after

NOTHING

Recently, there have been reports from experts that a hard plug is not expected, and therefore with bitcoin should be all right. Finally, everything will be decided in the next three months. But with the split bitcoin, or its copy, everything is not yet clear. In connection with the decentralization of the digital currency, there is no unambiguous solution and, perhaps, it will be decided differently.