Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining speculation => Topic started by: philipma1957 on July 14, 2017, 06:43:37 PM



Title: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 14, 2017, 06:43:37 PM
No winner I rolled over the 2ltc. and the compac stick.

Link to last contest.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1999606.0

 
Okay no one hit this.  So prize is raise to 2.0 ltc and a sidehack 1 chip usb compac.

Locking for the time being will fill in the rules in about 12 hours

Link to last threads

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1972166.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1932641.msg19189742#msg19189742





Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.



when it reaches 1116 picks will start

when it reaches 516-- picks will end----

when it reaches  0 winner will be found or not





##################################
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
**********************************************










Difficulty History

Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate



 Jul 14 2017   804,525,194,568   13.53%   5,759,015,666 GH/s
Jul 02 2017   708,659,466,230   -0.43%   5,072,782,052 GH/s



Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174.......   4.85% ....  5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 23 2017   595,921,917,085   6.42%   4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017   559,970,892,891   7.28%   4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017   521,974,519,554   0.22%   3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017   520,808,749,422   4.24%   3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017   499,635,929,817   5.03%   3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017   475,705,205,062   3.24%   3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017   460,769,358,091   4.54%   3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017   440,779,902,287   4.41%   3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017   422,170,566,884   7.43%   3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017   392,963,262,344   16.64%   2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017   336,899,932,796   6.05%   2,411,623,656 GH/s









So 1 compac usb stick  from sidehack





If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the compac stick. Note the compact stick is the 1 chip version but as always it is fun to play with it.





Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 14, 2017, 06:46:13 PM
Rules







https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950

 I am checking this list of rules from older thread

1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017  you must have at least 30 posts. --

2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:  
 
Adjust time:                 Block    1116  
  
Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:
  
Adjust time:      516

Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the  contest picks from 2016 in code

as low as you want

-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0

to as high as you want





Code:
-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number


-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN    
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler

+3.7  ! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress

+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer

+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5

+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC


Code:
Difficulty History

Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___   Hash Rate



Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174  .......... 4.85%.....   5,094,526,985 GH/s



May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally If I missed anything  I will be the sole  decider as to what is fair.




Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.







Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: edonkey on July 14, 2017, 09:54:36 PM
I have my SHA256 miners on NiceHash with a profitability value. That last difficulty increase was so high that my miners switched away to a backup pool.

It's days like this that I wish NiceHash had listed to my request to optionally specify the profitability as a delta percentage rather than a fixed value.

Let's all hope the next jump goes easier on us...


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: QuintLeo on July 15, 2017, 01:32:45 AM
How do you get your ASIC miners to switch pools based on profitability?

 Is that SHA256 specific, or does it apply to all of their ASIC-based pools (I seem to have missed it in the Scrypt instructions).



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 15, 2017, 03:47:24 AM
How do you get your ASIC miners to switch pools based on profitability?

 Is that SHA256 specific, or does it apply to all of their ASIC-based pools (I seem to have missed it in the Scrypt instructions).



On the s-9. The third line the password line

.42

Would be the setting

As .33 is the correct rate

If no one is paying .42 it drops to second choice

If you get paid the .42 it is like 135 percent.



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: alh on July 15, 2017, 08:58:41 AM
For what it's worth, BTC price has declined now to $2051. I would think that if that persists, that the increase in hashrate will slow. There's quite a lag in hashrate changes, BTC price can literally "turn on a dime". Maybe a decline in BTC price coupled with good sized difficulty jump will bring things  back closer to where they were back in the first 2 months of the year.

Just my $.02.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 15, 2017, 09:20:00 AM
For what it's worth, BTC price has declined now to $2051. I would think that if that persists, that the increase in hashrate will slow. There's quite a lag in hashrate changes, BTC price can literally "turn on a dime". Maybe a decline in BTC price coupled with good sized difficulty jump will bring things  back closer to where they were back in the first 2 months of the year.

Just my $.02.

I cashed 4 coins at  about 9550.
I could buy them back at  8300.

this chart shows a drop  the gray line is clearly under the line.  which means negative.

I would not mind  a further price drop.
say  1600 a coin.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500110103


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: edonkey on July 15, 2017, 02:45:07 PM
How do you get your ASIC miners to switch pools based on profitability?

 Is that SHA256 specific, or does it apply to all of their ASIC-based pools (I seem to have missed it in the Scrypt instructions).

Phil already answered, but just to clarify this is a pool specific setting. For Nicehash it's the "p" option in the password field.

For example, here's how I currently have Nicehash set up as my first pool (with a different receive address):

Code:
stratum+tcp://sha256.usa.nicehash.com:3334#xnsub
18wQtEDmhur2xAd3oE8qgrZbpCDeuMsdQW
p=0.3282

The above 0.3282 number works out to about 5% over the current SHA256 earnings. If Nicehash falls below that, it appears as dead to the miner and the miner switches to the next pool.

The pain in the ass part is that they don't allow me to specify a percentage. It's only a fixed number. So when there's a difficulty change, I recompute the profitability number and restart my miners with it.

I got tired of computing the profitability number by hand (using a mining calculator) so I now do it automatically using some Javascript in a Google Sheets spreadsheet. If anyone is interested, here's the GitHub page with the scripts:

https://github.com/edonkeycoin/gsbitcoinutils

I'm a little unhappy with the performance of blockr.io though (which I used for the scripts). I might switch APIs if I get pissed off enough.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 16, 2017, 09:45:47 AM


Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.






https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   897,679,492,842 (+11.58%)

Adjust time:   After 1738 Blocks, About 11.8 days >>>>  WE START AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   5,567,284,095 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   



and price is dropping like a rock 1935  at coinbase. >:(


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: alh on July 16, 2017, 08:04:58 PM
A few hours later, on price.bitcoin.com: $1880.

Pretty much a straight line down from $2600 on July 5th. (excluding small and brief  "rallies").


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 16, 2017, 10:02:12 PM
A few hours later, on price.bitcoin.com: $1880.

Pretty much a straight line down from $2600 on July 5th. (excluding small and brief  "rallies").


I am happy I sold four for 9550


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: QuintLeo on July 17, 2017, 09:34:41 AM
A few hours later, on price.bitcoin.com: $1880.

Pretty much a straight line down from $2600 on July 5th. (excluding small and brief  "rallies").


I am happy I sold four for 9550

 I'm happy I moved almost everything off Nicehash - though only had a couple old low-level rigs and my Scrypt stuff pointed there.

 Litecoin is doing quite well compared to Bitcoin the last couple weeks, still only down 20% more or less on $ terms from it's peak 3ish weeks back and seems inclined to climb to a higher level vs. Bitcoin than it's seen in years.



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 17, 2017, 12:29:18 PM
A few hours later, on price.bitcoin.com: $1880.

Pretty much a straight line down from $2600 on July 5th. (excluding small and brief  "rallies").


I am happy I sold four for 9550

 I'm happy I moved almost everything off Nicehash - though only had a couple old low-level rigs and my Scrypt stuff pointed there.

 Litecoin is doing quite well compared to Bitcoin the last couple weeks, still only down 20% more or less on $ terms from it's peak 3ish weeks back and seems inclined to climb to a higher level vs. Bitcoin than it's seen in years.



right now my mining has been reduced  I sold a lot of gear.

I now have 56th for BTC  down from 70th
I have  4-5k sol for ZEC  down from 13k sol
I have 150 mh for  Nist5
I have a tiny little x-11 miner with 5mh  that uses 12 watts or so


I am holding a lot of cash  more then anything else.

If everything crashes I can buy cheap gpus or avalon 741's or cheap btc.

If everything rallies  I can earn with the gear I have.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: QuintLeo on July 17, 2017, 11:35:32 PM

I have a tiny little x-11 miner with 5mh  that uses 12 watts or so


 Pinaldea (sp?) USB-based thing where the fan is about as big as the actual miner?




Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 12:14:59 AM

I have a tiny little x-11 miner with 5mh  that uses 12 watts or so


 Pinaldea (sp?) USB-based thing where the fan is about as big as the actual miner?




yeah  shaped like a cube  makes money I mine it  next to the compac sticks  and I mine cpu mining  for hodl or cryptonight along with 1 gpu for zcash.

The rig has 4 separate  things going  ;D


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: leowonderful on July 18, 2017, 10:46:45 AM
I recall buying one of the PinIdea USB miners for about fifty bucks this year and then forgetting about it and eventually losing it. They sure are quiet and reliable, and the only X11 machines I ever got at a decent price. Perhaps I'll find it this week  ;D


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: isoneguy on July 18, 2017, 01:59:25 PM
oh man leo, I need one of those for every one of my rigs.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 03:48:12 PM
oh man leo, I need one of those for every one of my rigs.

you sold it to me 4 or 5 months ago!

they turned out okay

running it with other miners  it makes 10-15 cents a day


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: leowonderful on July 18, 2017, 04:28:22 PM
On another note Bitmain seems to have launched the D3 X11 miner (15GH/1200W) selling for $2600 and shipping in September. Perhaps you could get another X11 miner for a decent price if you wanted to :) profitability calculators show this thing making almost $100k a year but it will likely crash with iBeLink also releasing their DM11G.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 04:34:47 PM
On another note Bitmain seems to have launched the D3 X11 miner (15GH/1200W) selling for $2600 and shipping in September. Perhaps you could get another X11 miner for a decent price if you wanted to :) profitability calculators show this thing making almost $100k a year but it will likely crash with iBeLink also releasing their DM11G.

I will toss it in as a prize here on the next round.

problem is the prizes are too small since we don't get many picking for free shot at sidehack compac and 2 ltc.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: vapourminer on July 18, 2017, 06:10:46 PM
problem is the prizes are too small since we don't get many picking for free shot at sidehack compac and 2 ltc.

thats a shame. old thread was mainly for fun even with the prize. lots of chatter etc.

hope this ones goes in that direction too.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: Last of the V8s on July 18, 2017, 06:14:17 PM
On another note Bitmain seems to have launched the D3 X11 miner (15GH/1200W) selling for $2600 and shipping in September. Perhaps you could get another X11 miner for a decent price if you wanted to :) profitability calculators show this thing making almost $100k a year but it will likely crash with iBeLink also releasing their DM11G.

I will toss it in as a prize here on the next round.

problem is the prizes are too small since we don't get many picking for free shot at sidehack compac and 2 ltc.
that would be cool

but i reckon the prizes are fine

maybe if it's not as popular as in its heyday, allow us to pick more of a range - wasn't it like that at one point?

if someone is seen to win a prize, the contest may become more popular again...


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 07:52:55 PM
On another note Bitmain seems to have launched the D3 X11 miner (15GH/1200W) selling for $2600 and shipping in September. Perhaps you could get another X11 miner for a decent price if you wanted to :) profitability calculators show this thing making almost $100k a year but it will likely crash with iBeLink also releasing their DM11G.

I will toss it in as a prize here on the next round.

problem is the prizes are too small since we don't get many picking for free shot at sidehack compac and 2 ltc.
that would be cool

but i reckon the prizes are fine

maybe if it's not as popular as in its heyday, allow us to pick more of a range - wasn't it like that at one point?

if someone is seen to win a prize, the contest may become more popular again...


yeah  we had a bigger range  like .2 vs .1


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: isoneguy on July 18, 2017, 08:44:25 PM
oh man leo, I need one of those for every one of my rigs.

you sold it to me 4 or 5 months ago!


I know, I regret every moment of that...but I try to be a man of my word. If you ever want to sell it back...just let me know :p


How do you get your ASIC miners to switch pools based on profitability?


On the s-9. The third line the password line

.42

Would be the setting

As .33 is the correct rate

If no one is paying .42 it drops to second choice

If you get paid the .42 it is like 135 percent.



FFS someone needs to write a book about this stuff. Also, thanks for being such a wealth of knowledge...and sharing the wealth.  :o


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: leowonderful on July 18, 2017, 11:48:07 PM
Back on topic, hashrate seems to be going up again and we may well see another +10% rise in difficulty. As difficulty continues to rise I'm wondering whether Bitmain is doing R&D on a new chip or  if they plan on continuing S9 production as they are more focused on alts.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 11:51:53 PM
oh man leo, I need one of those for every one of my rigs.

you sold it to me 4 or 5 months ago!


I know, I regret every moment of that...but I try to be a man of my word. If you ever want to sell it back...just let me know :p


How do you get your ASIC miners to switch pools based on profitability?


On the s-9. The third line the password line

.42

Would be the setting

As .33 is the correct rate

If no one is paying .42 it drops to second choice

If you get paid the .42 it is like 135 percent.



FFS someone needs to write a book about this stuff. Also, thanks for being such a wealth of knowledge...and sharing the wealth.  :o

They are making a fortune on hashnest s-7.


look what they charge for an s-7 for power
https://i.imgur.com/x8lvaaQ.png

look what they charge for the x-9

https://i.imgur.com/X0PsREB.png


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: TheYankeesWin! on July 18, 2017, 11:53:19 PM
So phil  you think they are mining s-9's and have no s-7's at all?


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 18, 2017, 11:55:36 PM
So phil  you think they are mining s-9's and have no s-7's at all?

No I think they   replace the dead s-7s with s-9's and sell the hash as s-7  which  make  them  more money.

I think no one can prove it.

But I think they do this.

So they have zero reason to develop  the s-11  at this moment.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: QuintLeo on July 19, 2017, 06:04:41 AM
I suspect they aren't bothering to replace dying S7 units as such, just let them die and convert the "slot" into a S9 slot - and modify the available totals accordingly.

 Isn't there an option when your "Hashnest S7" becomes unprofitable for long enough that they shut it and your contract down and give you the option to buy the machine?



 There is NO new tech available for Bitmain to "do R&D on a new chip" WITH, that is going to provide a significant improvement in performance.

 They're AT the current semiconductor state-of-the-art so it's going to be a year or two AT LEAST before such a new process node is AVAILABLE to design for.


 People need to understand that the days of "a new generation in a year or less of miner" CAN'T HAPPEN any more, the only reason that was possible for so long was that miners weren't using the state-of-the-art prior to the S9 (and the same-gen Bitfury chip and some others since then) so they had room TO improve a lot more rapidly.

 At this point, a new generation every 3-5 years is going to be the norm, and expecting anything different is a pipe dream with no basis in reality.



 Given that both IBM and Intel have already stated that Silicon has reached "the end of the road" at 7-10 nm (IBM's 7nm experimental work uses a HYBRID Silicon/Germanium wafer not the pure Silicon wafers most semiconductors have been made on for the last 30 years or so), it seems VERY likely that Moore's Law is finally about to break and it's going to be quite a bit longer between generations after folks get to 7nm.



 It's not so much that Bitmain isn't interested in developing a "S11" model, it's that they CAN'T for a while longer.



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: vapourminer on July 19, 2017, 10:54:12 AM
Given that both IBM and Intel have already stated that Silicon has reached "the end of the road" at 7-10 nm (IBM's 7nm experimental work uses a HYBRID Silicon/Germanium wafer not the pure Silicon wafers most semiconductors have been made on for the last 30 years or so), it seems VERY likely that Moore's Law is finally about to break and it's going to be quite a bit longer between generations after folks get to 7nm.

might be interesting once the fabs move to a new process entirely (hybrid or whatever, ie not silicon based any more) as that will leave the current state of the art silicon fabs with lots of exess capacity. i cant see all those old tech fabs shutting down (or converting as that would mean basically all new equipment for the new process, so new fabs may be built instead, or existing ones being expanded, leave most old tech in place as its still useful) as lots of mainstream chips will still use them for run of the mill parts that dont need the extreme speed/power savings that the new process will offer. but those run of the mill chips wont take much capacity.

some asic makers will move to the new process but they will again be competing with the big boys and their cost will be substantial, amounting to what we more or less have now.. small runs, high price, low availability.. although they will be faster and more power efficient. so not a lot will be made at 1st.

so current fabs that have 90%+ of their capacity currently used by apple/amd/samsung/arm whatever will now be able to offer large runs of custom wafers at much cheaper prices. this may let asic makers (perhaps new ones as well at the few we have now) churn out "old tech" asic chips at much lower cost and much higher volume, as right now asic makers are competing for fab capacity. at the transition to a new process apple/samsung etc will move to those, leaving old fabs with excess capacity.

this may drive the prices of asics down to the point where asic miners are much more affordable and available. power efficiency will not be much better but the absurd cost of the chips will be lower, allowing new players into the the asic party.

this would mean lots more asics on the network. difficulty would start to climb again just from the sheer numbers of new machines based on silicon, which should still be competitive if the price is right..

current farms are mainly limited by price per unit and power capacity. lower the price per unit and those who are not hugely power limited (small farms/home/hobby miners) can start to build out bigger farms. for example i have extra power capacity (125 spare amps with no upgrades) but cost of asics (mainly), plus somewhat limited availability prevents me from buying.

after all what keeps most asic miners in check besides power? price and availability. fix those and watch out.

just me guessing out loud, love to hear of any other thoughts on this.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 19, 2017, 01:41:36 PM
@ vapourminer  you have a good point.  I have seen  the bitfury  chip  demo working at 0.06 watts.

So if chips become throw away cheap..   the s-11  with s-9 chips  could be developed.  Change clocks and volts dropping the .11 - .13  power to .07-.09



@QuintLeo

if the s-7  become 101%  cost for 30 days    they will power it off and I think you could buy it.

right now it is 55% cost to run it.

My feelings are  if an s-7 dies  they put in an s-9    and sell the hash at s-7 prices.

No one audits this  and the only way that get caught is every s-7  hash owner says  send me my s-7.



Here is another interesting thing they will be doing.

https://www.hashnest.com/notifications/18?ticket=ST-9388557-VfsU1HCA1GbWxczqPjVy-passport.bitmain.com

All users on hashnest, please be advised below. To avoid risk of the possible bitcoin fork, hashnest decide to stop all the services for bitcoin wallet , hashrate market and PACMIC contracts payback during 2017/07/31 8:00-2017/08/03 8:00 beijing time.


Back to the game:

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.




we start at block #  1116


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: fr4nkthetank on July 19, 2017, 06:56:36 PM
Innosilicon is coming out with a x11 miner also....cheaper than bitmain I think and more powerful.  everything is a pre-sale though, including bitmain. 


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: philipma1957 on July 19, 2017, 07:27:36 PM
Innosilicon is coming out with a x11 miner also....cheaper than bitmain I think and more powerful.  everything is a pre-sale though, including bitmain. 

Simply shows that asic builders have no loyalty to any asic coin..
As Donald would say:

" sad so sad"


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are yet to open
Post by: QuintLeo on July 19, 2017, 10:39:47 PM
Innosilicon is coming out with a x11 miner also....cheaper than bitmain I think and more powerful.  everything is a pre-sale though, including bitmain. 

 No price announced yet.

 Only preliminary stats - and after the A4 I'm inclined to wait for an actual PRODUCTION unit before I believe posted stats.



 The S9 ALREADY HAD ISSUES when Bitmain tried to run it at too low a voltage in the early batches. That's WHY you don't see them pushing "14+ Gh/s" batches any more.

 They'd have to drop the hashrate a TON to get noticeably under the current efficiency level - and they're probably call it the "S9 lite" or "S9+" not the S11 if they did do something like that.



 As long as foundry space is booked MONTHS AHEAD on the very few 14/16nm production lines, and those lines are running flat out, chips won't get "throw away cheap" on those nodes.
 That doesn't look likely to change 'till the NEXT generation techs are in production.

 There is the question of how many of the current 14/16nm fabs will stay on that process, and for how long, vs the possibility of one or more of them moving to a new process.
 I'd bet the current lines stay put for a while though - more likely lines making ancient process will get rebuilt for the brand new process, or new lines built for it instead.

 Cost to produce a chip won't drop for quite a while though, only the AVAILABILITY will increase when some stuff starts moving to new process node(s).





Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 12:27:14 PM
 

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.




we have started at block #  1116



Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   
[/quote]


and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always

-1.1 = philipma1957


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Last of the V8s on July 20, 2017, 12:58:21 PM
+5.0 = Last of the V8s

pls & ty


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: CardShare on July 20, 2017, 01:09:41 PM
Could I make a pick of

+9.5

Was unsure what else has already been picked


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 01:21:53 PM


Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.




we have started at block #  1116



Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   


and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always

-1.1 = philipma1957



5.0 = Last of The V8s

9.5 = CardShare


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: fr4nkthetank on July 20, 2017, 01:32:13 PM
5.8 = fr4nkthetank



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 03:06:00 PM

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.




we have started at block #  1116



Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   
[/quote]


and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always



-1.1 = philipma1957



5.0 = Last of The V8s


5.8 = fr4nkthetank


9.5 = CardShare


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: cakir on July 20, 2017, 03:22:15 PM
Hi, It has been long time, You've been giving 0.1 btc back then...
I would like to select +6.1 please. Thanks a lot!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: vapourminer on July 20, 2017, 07:12:15 PM
8.0 = vapourminer


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: VRobb on July 20, 2017, 07:20:32 PM
+13.0 = VRobb

And thanks again to philip for being such an enabler to all us degenerates!  :D


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: cakir on July 20, 2017, 09:18:09 PM
Hi, It has been long time, You've been giving 0.1 btc back then...
I would like to select +6.1 please. Thanks a lot!
(As I said earlier, It has been long and I've forgot how to pick, I didn't want to edit, so I quoted, I'm not changing it.)

+6.1 = cakir


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 10:03:38 PM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957


5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

8.0 = vapourminer

9.5 = CardShare

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: leowonderful on July 20, 2017, 10:25:41 PM
+10

Huge and, in my opinion, unnecessarily big reward this round, but I would also love to see more picks in the future! I smell a big pump in diff this round.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 11:00:13 PM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957


5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

8.0 = vapourminer

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: QuintLeo on July 20, 2017, 11:21:36 PM
2.0 = QuintLeo


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 20, 2017, 11:28:45 PM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

8.0 = vapourminer

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


coins jumped over 2900 briefly!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: actmyname on July 21, 2017, 12:24:32 AM
6.7 = actmyname


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2017, 03:43:05 AM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

8.0 = vapourminer

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


coins jumped over 2900 briefly!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Landy1264 on July 21, 2017, 07:00:08 AM
9.2 = Landy1264


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2017, 11:22:50 AM

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

8.0 = vapourminer

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


coins jumped over 2900 briefly!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: QuintLeo on July 21, 2017, 07:55:41 PM
Coin jump over 2900 was VERY brief, but the recovery from around 2000ish as a low to the current 2500ish in the last few days is looking good.



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2017, 10:03:14 PM
Coin jump over 2900 was VERY brief, but the recovery from around 2000ish as a low to the current 2500ish in the last few days is looking good.



yep and I actually managed to sell some at 2930 ;D

not much  200 usd worth


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: isoneguy on July 21, 2017, 10:07:39 PM
7.0 = isoneguy  :(


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 21, 2017, 10:31:17 PM


Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   867,748,412,219 (+7.86%)
Adjust time:   After 1094 Blocks, About 7.3 days
Hashrate(?):   6,397,519,414 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:   864,312,295,494 (+7.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1036 Blocks, About 6.9 days
Hashrate(?):   6,392,376,751 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes



and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname
7.0 = isoneguy
8.0 = vapourminer

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


coins jumped over 2900 briefly!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: vh on July 22, 2017, 01:00:08 AM
12.5 = vh


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: fr4nkthetank on July 22, 2017, 01:10:35 AM
I feel someone is going to win this time, most likely wont be me though.  Go btc price go, the latest rally was insane, reminds you that there is no limit to the speed of increasing price.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 22, 2017, 01:19:04 AM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

we have started at block #  1116


and a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

coinbase = 2775 usd!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Flying Hellfish on July 22, 2017, 01:48:30 AM
+11.2 = Flying Hellfish

Thanks Phil  :)


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 22, 2017, 03:30:08 AM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

10.0 = leowonderful

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: alh on July 22, 2017, 08:40:42 AM
As quickly as the BTC price dropped from $2600 --> $1900, it has now gone back up to about $2800. This is all within the span of a single difficulty period.

Big time roller-coaster.....


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Psi on July 22, 2017, 12:09:23 PM
+9.8 = Psi


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 22, 2017, 02:08:00 PM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: edonkey on July 22, 2017, 03:47:50 PM
Our girl cat says:

8.8 = eDonkey


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: HagssFIN on July 22, 2017, 06:13:54 PM
My sister's two cats say:   (:D)
+10.2 = HagssFIN


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: pusttiu on July 22, 2017, 08:31:29 PM
+13.3 = pusttiu


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 22, 2017, 11:24:06 PM
Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s

5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

8.8 = eDonkey

9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

10.2 = HagssFIN

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

13.3 = pusttiu

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Tomintx on July 23, 2017, 01:09:00 AM
5.4 = tomintx


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 23, 2017, 09:35:34 AM

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s
5.4 = tomintx
5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

8.8 = eDonkey
9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

10.2 = HagssFIN

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

13.3 = pusttiu

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: alh on July 23, 2017, 08:10:28 PM
+10.5 = alh

BTC price currently $2773.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:    887,140,925,788 (+10.27%)
Adjust time:    After 562 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):    6,436,675,884 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.0 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.8 minutes
   
Updated:    15:5 (7.0 minutes ago)


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 23, 2017, 10:05:57 PM

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s
5.4 = tomintx
5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer

8.8 = eDonkey
9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

10.2 = HagssFIN

10.5 = Alh

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

13.3 = pusttiu

Picks will end at 516


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 24, 2017, 02:35:51 AM
I am going to give a pick to Bigsky


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg20337121#msg20337121


as he made a large error in the thread above.

Not sure if he is online  but if it goes past the 516 deadline and he misses the picking I am assigning him one.  As I do not like people getting hurt with an honest mistake.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now open!
Post by: Bigsky on July 24, 2017, 07:22:24 AM


Thanks for the thoughts philipma1957

If its not too late, what about 8.4,and if I win
you can donate it to a worthy cause

cheers mate


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 24, 2017, 12:53:19 PM

Back to the game Picks are open :

Experimental Image Contribution:

http://mining.tipsternet.com/images/BitcoinWisdom_AdjustTime.png

Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.
we have started at block #  1116

a price rally  is causing  people to turn their s-7's back on and a big spike in diff

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate.png?1500553205

My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s
5.4 = tomintx
5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname

7.0 = isoneguy

8.0 = vapourminer
8.4 = bigsky
8.8 = eDonkey
9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

10.2 = HagssFIN

10.5 = Alh

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

13.3 = pusttiu

Picks  ended at 516

Bigsky was added as the last player

good luck to all

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   804,525,194,568


Estimated Next Difficulty:   884,786,146,085 (+9.98%)
Adjust time:   After 444 Blocks, About 2.8 days


Hashrate(?):   6,543,426,191 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.8 minutes
6 blocks: 53.5 minutes
Updated:   8:50 (5.0 minutes ago)


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: leowonderful on July 24, 2017, 07:20:53 PM
This is going to be damn near 10% if nothing changes. currently estimating about +11% but if blocks keep coming in slow (no blocks in 2+ hrs atm) we may go back to 9-10. These constant difficulty rises are a bit concerning though, my S7 may be coming to its EOL quicker than expected.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: QuintLeo on July 24, 2017, 08:31:52 PM
Not sure why we're seeing the current increase, the Bitmain "July" batch looked like it was all shipped out the first 2 weeks or so of the month.
Perhaps Bitfury finally got some chips shipped to a large farm?



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 24, 2017, 08:57:12 PM
The key is price of the coin.

My gut tells my that by AUG 9th  my wedding anniversary  will we be over 3000usd a coin.

If so  the game will see more jumps of 5-10% .

 As the s-7's all stay alive  for mining.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: QuintLeo on July 25, 2017, 08:43:25 AM
S7 (and S5/SP20) units aren't much of the total network hashrate any more, they were STILL profitable even during the "close to $2000" dip.
The price doesn't matter during the intervals when there are no miners to buy.




Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 27, 2017, 02:21:41 AM
with 7.53%  and 52 blocks to go isoneguy 7.0 and vapourminer 8.0

have a chance

isoneguy  gets     7.0 to 7.099999999xxx


vapourminer gets 8.0 to 8.099999999xxx



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: VRobb on July 27, 2017, 03:25:40 AM
Ha ha! Just like the old days! No f'in idea where diff will go with all the roller-coaster ups and downs!!  :D


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: QuintLeo on July 27, 2017, 07:40:17 AM

My gut tells my that by AUG 9th  my wedding anniversary  will we be over 3000usd a coin.


 You got married on my sister's birthday.

 8-O



Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: alh on July 27, 2017, 08:04:46 AM
Looks to me like another miss. I guessed way too high, along with several others.....

Bitcoin Difficulty:    804,525,194,568
Estimated Next Difficulty:    864,794,106,436 (+7.49%)
Adjust time:    After 18 Blocks, About 2.7 hours
Hashrate(?):    6,227,075,973 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.0 minutes
3 blocks: 27.1 minutes
6 blocks: 54.2 minutes
   
Updated:    2:50 (15.4 minutes ago)

Crazy business indeed!


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 27, 2017, 12:11:51 PM
We got close but no cigar
6.92%

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Jul 27 2017   860,221,984,436   6.92%   6,157,708,817 GH/s





Jul 14 2017   804,525,194,568   13.53%   5,759,015,666 GH/s
My pick as usual is the same as always:

-1.1 = philipma1957

2.0 = QuintLeo

5.0 = Last of The V8s
5.4 = tomintx
5.8 = fr4nkthetank

6.1 = cakir

6.7 = actmyname  under 6.92  by a little  .22

7.0 = isoneguy     over 6.92   by less       .08

8.0 = vapourminer
8.4 = bigsky
8.8 = eDonkey
9.2 = Landy1264

9.5 = CardShare

9.8 = Psi

10.0 = leowonderful

10.2 = HagssFIN

10.5 = Alh

11.2 = Flying Hellfish

12.5 = vh

13.0 = VRobb

13.3 = pusttiu

Picks  ended at 516

Bigsky was added as the last player



I will set up a new contest later today.


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: fr4nkthetank on July 29, 2017, 03:57:22 AM
no winner again lol.  Hey anybody has ideas on difficulty after the fork ?  I mean...depending on BCC price, a bunch of hashrate will cross over...difficulty will be uncertain at the re-adjust, and could cause problems mining blocks, potentially crippling bitcoin if a lot of hashrate leaves ?


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 29, 2017, 04:17:16 AM
no winner again lol.  Hey anybody has ideas on difficulty after the fork ?  I mean...depending on BCC price, a bunch of hashrate will cross over...difficulty will be uncertain at the re-adjust, and could cause problems mining blocks, potentially crippling bitcoin if a lot of hashrate leaves ?

Well if a lot leave and 1 fork is 75 percent and the other 25 percent.

It would add Say 5 days to the big fork

And 20 days to the small fork


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: edonkey on July 29, 2017, 04:19:34 PM
Did you guys see the analysis of changes to the BCC difficulty rules that will allow large pools to manipulate the difficulty backwards, without waiting for the next adjustment period?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6q3joc/a_voice_of_reason_in_the_mining_community/

Assuming this is true, is this vulnerability an honest mistake of the devs who perhaps wanted mining to be effective during their first period as miners bail for the main BTC chain? Because if hash power follows BTC, the block rate for the first adjustment period of BCC would approach infinity, given the original rules.

Or was it intentionally designed to be exploitable by large pools like Antpool to maximize their acquisition of BCC block rewards during the initial pump and dump?

This change to the rules might make it interesting to have a thread to guess the difficulty of BCC. Not that I think it's a good idea to legitimize BCC, but wouldn't it be interesting to watch the difficulty go backwards during an adjustment period?

Regardless, the adjustment period for both chains after August 1st will likely be very interesting...


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: cakir on July 29, 2017, 06:45:09 PM
Too bad I couln't get either... I'm gonna guess next time negative. Because of the 1 august shit & BitcoinCash shit.
Some of the miners will point their haspower into BCC...


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: Last of the V8s on July 31, 2017, 07:14:13 PM
Bitcoin Difficulty:    860,221,984,436
Estimated Next Difficulty:    917,287,697,771 (+6.63%)
Adjust time:    After 1361 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):    6,450,431,265 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
   
Updated:    20:5 (8.4 minutes ago)

The calm before the storm?


Title: Re: Difficulty contest rollover prize 2ltc 1 compac usb stick. Picks are now closed!
Post by: philipma1957 on July 31, 2017, 07:16:03 PM
Bitcoin Difficulty:    860,221,984,436
Estimated Next Difficulty:    917,287,697,771 (+6.63%)
Adjust time:    After 1361 Blocks, About 9.3 days
Hashrate(?):    6,450,431,265 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
   
Updated:    20:5 (8.4 minutes ago)

The calm before the storm?

Maybe it is much to do about nothing.

I will open a thread to pick  tomorrow  should be fun or not.


new thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2057465.msg20523218#msg20523218