Bitcoin Forum

If someone believes that BIP91 will happen, I am willing to fill the other side of the bet. Granted, since miner support is almost at 80%, my payout rates must be significantly higher. I have around 0.1 BTC that I am willing to wager. If you want to make a bet, please place one below and I will review it. We can discuss escrows, payments, and other details in a private message.

I do beleive substantly that BIP91 will not happen. Neither i stopped buying btc before, nor i do now. I am constantly trading.
Somebody should come , gamble against you. 70% chances of your win. Let's see who dare to play this game

If one of the big mining pools stop signalling than support might go well below 80% and there are still many small polls like F2Pool, Slush, Kano, BitFury which are not actively signalling support for BIP91 right now and they will play significant roll during activation.

I don't think there will be anyone to bet on this but onehash should add this in special event.

Doing any bets like this OTC without Escrow is very risky.

You also need to state your terms more clearly since there are 5 - 336 block periods where it can get activated anyways.

I think sites like Fairlay can actually add this type of bet to their platform because I think they already have a bet going on whether Bitcoin will work this year or not.

He just wrote he can discuss escrow trough PM.

That's pretty vague, I'm pretty sure bitcoin will work xD

Anyways, OP, if you find someone to take on this bet, feel free to contact me to serve as an escrow for the bet :)
What kind of odds are you taking anyways?

Miner support is 80% but it's certain 1:5 wouldn't be fair as Segwit definitely wouldn't happen if support was around 55% or so, it must be major.

1:3 or something would be fair, I think.

I was thinking 1:4, calculated by 80% for divided 20% against.
Also, I'm just doing BIP91, not Segwit

It will be an ever changing bet. Both participants (someone else and I) can only bet with the information we have now. If it moves in the favor of one or another, we can close the bet early as long as we agree to terms. Kind of like binary options where you can sell your losing position off to somebody.

Can you explain the 5 - 366 block periods? I was just going off of https://www.xbt.eu

Update, I will accept 3x odds bets, e.g. if I lose I pay you 0.1 BTC, if you lose you pay me 0.3 BTC.

Post more info like if you would accept escrow and what is the max amount of BTC bet you are allowed.

I am pretty sure this will be an interesting trade.

You seem pretty optimisitc, maybe you know something that most of us don't?

iluvbitcoins has offered to be escrow, with +20 trust. I will accept that. I am willing to bet up to 0.15 BTC or 1.5 ETH or 315 USDT at the moment. No, I don't have inside information. I just believe.

The bet will be made based only on the current epoch (group of 336 blocks). Sorry, I misunderstood how it would be activated. We can, of course, rediscuss the nature of the bet. The data is at https://www.xbt.eu/. If in 204 (from time of post) blocks 168 (from time of post) blocks signal BIP91 you win. Otherwise, I win.

What kind of site do you use for betting? :)

iluvbitcoins will escrow should we decide to make the bet.

I can see you are native gamblers , even Bitcoins' BIP91 is gonna get a betting, that's amazing and also too hard to predict, I would stay out of this since those 80% miner support must be constant (I think so), difficulty task to discipline and coordinate all the hash power among those. Even if Segwit2x succeed now, the November part will need to have 100% miners support to 2MB block size, tough job.

I think Onehash may add this bet on their site.

I confirm if someone wants to make a bet, I'll serve as an escrow agent.

1:3 are actually quite fair odds!

Haven't heard of this one but BIP148 is all over the place
so I would be more inclined to choose that one over this one which hasn't had as much exposure to the bitcoin users as it should.

this looks like a interesting ride! either way it goes its simply a flip of the coin ! good luck

Doesn't Gnosis or Auger do this as well? If so may have a larger pool..

They probably have a max. bet, having a major pool, you probably wouldn't be interested in petty bets.

Seems like BIP 91 has already locked it. Things are looking pretty bad on your side of the bet. Anyone betting against you will likely win. If I had the money to bet I would.
This fork is imminent and it will happen. Nothing we can do about it, people want change.