Bitcoin Forum

:Charts:

I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.

In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.

"But this time it's different!"

Thoughts?


https://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png

I just want to be the first to pat you on the back, and commend you for trying. I don't need to wait months to do it.

You don't live up to your screen name  :(

Something is wrong with this chart, 2011 was characterized by lower lows and lower highs. What we've seen so far are higher lows and lower highs, which makes it less likely for the price to follow the same pattern is it did in 2011. So it actually is different this time, there are also similarities ofcourse but if you are blind to the differences you could end up being very wrong.

Thanks for the reminder.

That's cherry picking. Not a very sound argument to make.

Well if it's made you decent money thus far, can't really have a go at the poor bloke..

Well done on your profits. I'm no professional, but I think it would be foolish to believe your invincible due to this technique, so be very careful :P For all you know you could have been simply lucky eh.

My TA says 88$ avg. weighted on MtGox on the 31th of May. Let's wait for 2 weeks.

Are you Fontas the pump'n'dumper from btc-e ? Then you would know about bubbles deflating :)

Crude as hell, there's absolutely no reason why we should copy that line.

I don't need to wait several months to tell you how flawed this is.

You're a trader, you work by movements but ignore fundamentals - good luck to you but your TA leaves a lot to be desired :)

100 is the new 10.

Rise Chikun, RISE!!!!! Oh wait, that's litecoin on the BTC-E trollbox, but hey.... are you the fontas everyone considers a god over there?

I'll play along and track this with you.  However, I am a strong believer that the past does not predict the future.  The core premise of technical analysis is that the past predicts the future.  In reality, there are always many different variables in the equation when comparing different time periods and chart action.  In the stock market, the only reason technical analyis works is because enough people make purchase and sell decisions using it.  With bitcoin, I am hoping that the psuedo-science of "technical" analysis will not catch on. 

People often say this, but... not exactly easy to prove.

Of course there remains the possibility of a similar situation to August 2012. This situation would take BTC on a rally to 180 and then a flatline.

However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

No, that is not the core premise.  This is your first misunderstanding of what TA actually is.  Past trades most certainly do correlate with the current positions of the various market participants.  Support and resistance levels are areas where lots of trades have happened in the past, so they mark important price levels for many people.


I agree there is a lot that passes for TA that is not rigorous enough to be worth anything, but I believe that when rigor is applied and the number are crunched, you can do better than random.  Once you have that, it's all about letting the winners run and cutting losses quickly.

While I agree with you in theory, the reality is bitcoin's price can be greatly affected by unforeseen factors. I think the price will remain stable until the next major event (Good or Bad) determines what direction it moves in.

On an unrelated note, why do I see your name dropped every 10 seconds in the trollbox on btc-e

single-handedly made LTC mining WAY profitable for me for like a month... Great Job, Fontas  :)