Bitcoin Forum

So we hear all of this clueless speculation based on fear or greed: BTC is too expensive already! It's too late to buy! It will go to $10,000! It will be worth a million in 10 years! Yada yada yada...

But where are the facts, the numbers? How do you get to these predictions?

Let's start a thread in which we try to see how far it could go based on actual numbers of other assets. Let's ask the question:

How much of which other assets could go into BTC?

Of course, that's speculation too, but it's educated speculation. I will start out with this very interesting graph here. It shows you the market cap of BTC and many other assets, visualized in little cubes, according to their size:

http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

And yes, the graph is a bit behind, as the current market cap of BTC is not 5 billion anymore, but 44 billion at the time of this writing. Check the current BTC market cap here: https://coinmarketcap.com/

For example, the market cap of all physical gold above ground is roughly 7 trillion or 7,000 billion. So taking into consideration BTCs 44 billion market cap, BTC needs to go to about $4,300 in order for it to have 1% of golds market cap (that would be 70 billion). If BTC goes to about $43,000, it will have 10% of golds market cap.

So how much could it draw away from gold? 1%? 5%? 10%? 20%? Even more?

And how much could it draw away from stocks? Bonds? Derivatives? Other assets?

My opinion: If you do the math, you get to quite a staggering number, and you can see the huge upwards potential BTC still has. I could definitely see it taking a bit bite out of gold, let's say 10% at least, which would already let it go to $40,000. And I'm not even speaking of stocks, art, maybe even real estate and bonds here. So I think $100,000 per BTC is definitely possible, IF no terrible thing happens along the way (government restrictions, political wars within BTC, technical catastrophes, etc...). We will see.

Your guestimates, ladies and gentlemen? Which other asset classes do you think BTC could draw from, and why?

I will try to put the most interesting diagrams, observations, etc... into this OP.

EDIT:

I found this statistic here really interesting, I got it from user "bicork" from another thread (don't know where exactly he got it from):

"Daily average BTC price change:

2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.66%

If this 7-year trend will continue (+0.42% a day) - 1 BTC will hit $250,000 in 2020."

I`ve seen this graphic posted on some other forum thread before.
There`s plenty of space for bitcoin to grow,but it`s wrong to compare it to gold.
Gold is used by the people for centuries.All the people without computer knowledge will trust gold,and believe  me,most of the people in the world don`t have a PC,which means that they don`t know anyhting about btc and most likely they will never buy and use bitcoin.

indeed not everybody have a PC but , don't you think everybody will learn in the future ?
 Look at right now,a twenty years ago or even less not many people understand about technologies and using letter to send a message,how about now ?

how about gold ? from my prespective it's only a shining item or jewelry,how about Bitcoin ?
the difference between both of them are great,from their ultility we can see who'll be the most usefull.

Bitcoin price can not be measured by chart or diagram precisely because it can fly to the moon at anytime moment or crash to the hell but it can be used a map for whole development in prices so we can calculate it all based on increasing,decreasing and social emotions

Median global computer ownership was at 38% in 2015, it's not hard to imagine it going to 70-80% in next 20-30 years. Which will mean that Bitcoin can easily become a gold of digital era, even if it won't scale into a currency level. And Bitcoin is more convenient for private storage and moving, it can be used anonymously, it can be hidden from all other people. Gold is valuable because it's scarce and chemically durable, nothing more, so Bitcoin can also be extremely valuable, because it's scarce and digitally durable.

It might make more sense to not take the number of people with a computer, but instead the number of people with an internet connection, which is about 3,6 billion people (and rising). That's pretty good. In the future, as people get more used to BTC, and younger people, who are more prone to adopt to new technologies, grow into BTC, I could see many, many people buying BTC instead of gold. Also, BTC historically brought a lot more gains than gold. Plus it's easier to store, hide and transport, etc...

Also, I only gave BTC 10% of gold, which is still quite a conservative number.

I completely agree. 38%, right, that's what I meant when I said "let's look at the numbers." It can all be easily googled nowadays anyways.

you only need a smartphone (less than $100) to start using Bitcoin. You dont need a PC.

10% of gold may be a conservative number, but it's still a wild ass guess. Also while BTC has had a better yield than gold, it's still little more than a blip in the history of trade. Just as a caveat, I still like the odds.

Regarding most people never buying and using Bitcoin due to lack of computers or internet: Most people most likely will never buy stocks or gold either. People lacking access digital infrastructure even less so.

The most important aspect is not the amount of people using bitcoin but the amount of money invested in the bitcoin ecosystem, if someone does not have the resources to access a PC then that person will probably not use bitcoin anyway, it is the middle class the ones we should aim for since they are the ones that are spending their money and have access to all the necessary tools to use bitcoin already.

the people without computers don't have any effect on the gold price. that's set by people with computers.

once more of those people with computers realise what bitcoin is and can do then it's off to the races.

it's been nearly 40 years since gold's all time high. in the meantime paper gold has completely detached the price from any type of reality and there's more fake gold than ever. it's ripe to be superseded by young and savvy people at least.

It will reach $500,000 in three years!

Says McAfee, the security guy. If it doesn't happen the guy will eat his dick on national TV. He has 0 facts about what he said.

Though I don't think it would happen. Probably $10,000 would be a more realistic possibility by 3 years.

It's not impossible for it to reach $500k within three years, but I don't expect it. Not that it matters or impacts my investment strategies. I do think that a price over 10k by 2020 is far from unlikely though, based on past adoption and exponential adoptions in general.

I don't see Bitcoin as much as a competitor for gold than for Western Union. Remittances is, as of now, the field where Bitcoin really excels: The volatility is almost non-relevant - even in bear markets - as Bitcoin remittances take place in minutes to a few hours, and there are no international barriers (apart from prohibitions in, at most, a handful countries).

According to this article (https://qz.com/775159/theres-a-500-billion-remittance-market-and-bitcoin-startups-want-in-on-it/) the yearly remittance volume is 500 billion USD. Bitcoin could capture at least half of it.

Obviously, it isn't that easy to say "now, Bitcoin can have a 250 billion market cap" (only taking into account remittances). An estimation would probably be based on the Quantity Theory of Money. But I estimate that there is a potential for Bitcoin's price to rise at least five times higher than today only if it is able to capture this market.

I still don't see $10k coming that easily. Three years is a lot of time in Bitcoin terms, but still one has to keep the feet on the ground even predicting the price of Bitcoin.

...what do you mean by "it's been nearly 40 years since gold's all time high"? Using what metric? The gold price peaked just 5 years ago...



Yes, so much this. International remittances are abysmal. Even leaving the SEPA zone feels like entering the middle ages and it's still the same continent.

The same is true for international stock trading. The regulations make it quite a painstaking process. Hence, equity participation is another market that the crypto-scene could one day start gobbling up in large chunks. There are already initial signs and tasters for this in some actually legitimate ICOs popping up here and there.

Totally, I agree with all of this.

I love the fact that this paper scam will not be possible with BTC. If you want to mass-dump BTC, you have to BUY it first, ha ha!

Also, how did you calculate that all-time high?

Interesting article. Half of all remittances is a bit much for me, but I could see BTC bite off a big chunk of the remittance market.

But: As fiat is only converted into BTC for a short time, and then converted back, would that drive the price up permanently and constantly? I guess you could argue that at any time xx remittances are needed in BTC.

Yes, that's why a quantity-theory based estimation would be needed. Here an user tried to do that (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1990487) for the current price. According to him, Bitcoin is about 10 times overvalued. Unfortunately I didn't fully understand his math, but basically he says, "the more transactions, the higher the value".

I could imagine there is another way to find out the potential price if $500 billion in remittances were added (maybe the model is stupid, but it looks logical - although oversimplified - for me):

At this moment, we have an estimated transaction volume of about 550.000.000 USD per day. (https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?daysAverageString=7) That's about 200 billion USD per year.

We can simply assume: 200 billion$/year is the correct volume for a $2700 price and a $44 billion market cap. Every billion$/year of transaction volume would be then equivalent of a Bitcoin market cap of $220 million.

If we add the 500 billion$/year transaction volume (assuming BTC captures the total remittance market), that would mean the Bitcoin market cap would be about 3,5 times higher than today (200bn + 500bn = 700 * $220m = 154 billion = bitcoin price as of current coin supply: 9450$).

That is less than I expected but it shows the price, only because of remittances, could well rise.

Looking at ICOs I'm actually reminded why there are regulations in the first place... but yeah, international stock trading does indeed seem needlessly complex, expensive and in a lot of cases - non-transparent. Also the traditional stock market doesn't go on 24/7, what's up with that? :P

Kay Van-Peterson of Saxo Bank, the man who predicted that BTC would reach $2,000 per coin, assumes that in ten years cryptocurrencies in general, not just Bitcoin, will account for 10 percent of the average daily volumes (ADV) of fiat currency trading in 10 years. Foreign exchange ADV currently stands at just over $5 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. So that 10% of $5 trillion would be a $500 billion cryptocurrency market. If Bitcoin were to be 35% of that $500 billion cryptocurrency market, this would mean that $175 billion worth of Bitcoin would be traded everyday.

Van-Peterson implies that Bitcoin’s market capitalization would be ten times the average daily volume, lending to a figure of $1.75 trillion for the market cap. In ten years he believes there will be roughly 17 million Bitcoin in circulation, up from the current 16.3 million in circulation today. If the potential 17 million Bitcoins is divided by the $1.75 trillion market cap estimate, then each Bitcoin would be worth just over $100,000.

This is just the fiat currency trading, so what will happen if traders start to shift from other commodities to Bitcoin. < Silver / Gold / Oil etc.. >

Gold is not only something shiny that people use, the reason gold was adopted all over the world as a currency is that gold has many characteristics that made it a good form of money, bitcoin has surpassed gold in that aspect which is why I think bitcoin is going to become a premium currency accepted all over the world, but we cannot deny the usefulness of gold.