Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: yokosan on May 13, 2013, 04:08:23 PM



Title: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: yokosan on May 13, 2013, 04:08:23 PM
When the price was going up people were loving this chart. (http://stattit.com/r/bitcoin/)

Now it tells a different story. Growth is slowing which was to be expected, but if you have even a basic grasp of complexity theory you will know that this is very bad news. As a system grows it requires more energy, if that energy is not provided the system will fail.

The closer to the top we get, the higher the risk (that is not speculation it is a fact).

After some volatility the next stable level will be around $50 (that IS speculation).


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: EuroTrash on May 13, 2013, 04:26:05 PM
When the price was going up people were loving this chart. (http://stattit.com/r/bitcoin/)

Now it tells a different story. Growth is slowing which was to be expected, but if you have even a basic grasp of complexity theory you will know that this is very bad news. As a system grows it requires more energy, if that energy is not provided the system will fail.

Here is a somewhat humorous picture i threw together in 15 seconds. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexity_economics)

The closer to the top we get, the higher the risk (that is not speculation it is a fact).

After some volatility the next stable level will be around $50 (that IS speculation).

Funny you say that.
Considering you sold in the 70-90 range and then bragged in the forums about buying a Gallardo with the money.

Feels good man. (Cit.)


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: yokosan on May 13, 2013, 04:28:49 PM
Bitcoin just had a huge amount of press on a global level, absolutely massive. What's more, for once the press were starting to look at the good points, fantastic.

But Bitcoin absolutely failed, mainly because it isn't meeting it's stated goals. In the huge demand surge people like coinbase couldn't provide enough coin. Exchanges like bitfloor got shut down. Gox couldn't handle the DDoS attacks, and even after that couldn't handle basic trading. These are the central points, and they failed.

The whole rally started with the news of coinlab providing large amounts of bitcoin to big investors, and funds being stored in silicon valley bank. In the end it couldn't have gone worse, now there are legal proceedings underway, and frankly this is nowhere near gox's first failing, they should have been shut down long ago but continue to operate in their shady deceitful ways, and people go crawling back just like after the 2011 hack.

What is needed:

- More exchanges globally
- More options for buying than just exchanges
- More merchants accepting bitcoin
- Competition to silkroad. At the moment if silk road is shutdown it could have massive implications, the risk needs to be spread.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: yokosan on May 13, 2013, 04:29:31 PM
When the price was going up people were loving this chart. (http://stattit.com/r/bitcoin/)

Now it tells a different story. Growth is slowing which was to be expected, but if you have even a basic grasp of complexity theory you will know that this is very bad news. As a system grows it requires more energy, if that energy is not provided the system will fail.

Here is a somewhat humorous picture i threw together in 15 seconds. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexity_economics)

The closer to the top we get, the higher the risk (that is not speculation it is a fact).

After some volatility the next stable level will be around $50 (that IS speculation).

Funny you say that.
Considering you sold in the 70-90 range and then bragged in the forums about buying a Gallardo with the money.

Feels good man. (Cit.)

I sold above $230, will go through my post history to see if I can find proof of this (pretty sure there is)

Edit:

First is this post where I made a prediction to go above 220 that came true. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168781.msg1755969#msg1755969)

Here is my first prediction of a crash. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171792.msg1787290#msg1787290) (majority opinion at this time was that "bitcoin is different" and could go up forever...)

Here I state that I sold over half (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172493.msg1794684#msg1794684) and the same exact day after the crash begins I am feeling "smug" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172493.msg1795559#msg1795559)

Here is where I am even asking bitstamp about my SEPA withdrawal... (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=38711.msg1795657#msg1795657)

https://i.imgur.com/a9Y1Y17.png

u mad?


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: joulesbeef on May 13, 2013, 04:36:13 PM
I like this chart better. (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin)


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: lewicki on May 13, 2013, 04:43:58 PM
I like this chart better. (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin)

Set the data range to be for the past 90 days.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 04:46:19 PM

you make some interesting and valid points that I wouldn't discount, thanks for your post. However, it's fair to say your attitude is pretty lame.

Funny how much can come across in the written word.

Regards


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Ivanhoe on May 13, 2013, 04:52:27 PM
You are not a man of your word or did i miss something?

New Bitcoin wallet?

He has made some prediction and hashed it. That way it cannot be self fulfilling prophecy. When the prediction happens, he will reveal it.

Or if it doesn't come true, he lets the thread die and no one remembers it after a week.  Like they say, if you're going to forecast, forecast often.  This is just a smarter way of covering your ass from ridicule.

I will play your game: If I don't provide the info contained within 7 days, I will quit this forum for good.
Not going exactly to plan, but hope is not lost. Will still provide solutions next week regardless of outcome.

3F1E491B6C4F321C3781D77A17DD97F8691038D19DDC3B2DFBC72ACD6DA4F656


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: yokosan on May 13, 2013, 05:00:57 PM
You are not a man of your word or did i miss something?

New Bitcoin wallet?

He has made some prediction and hashed it. That way it cannot be self fulfilling prophecy. When the prediction happens, he will reveal it.

Or if it doesn't come true, he lets the thread die and no one remembers it after a week.  Like they say, if you're going to forecast, forecast often.  This is just a smarter way of covering your ass from ridicule.

I will play your game: If I don't provide the info contained within 7 days, I will quit this forum for good.
Not going exactly to plan, but hope is not lost. Will still provide solutions next week regardless of outcome.

3F1E491B6C4F321C3781D77A17DD97F8691038D19DDC3B2DFBC72ACD6DA4F656

You got me. I am not a man of my word. Any more questions?


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: BitcoinAshley on May 13, 2013, 05:28:06 PM
An electron requires more energy to stay in an outer orbit...

Got it.

Any price level insights we didn't already know?  ;D


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: UltimateReaper on May 13, 2013, 05:55:06 PM
When the price was going up people were loving this chart. (http://stattit.com/r/bitcoin/)

Now it tells a different story. Growth is slowing which was to be expected, but if you have even a basic grasp of complexity theory you will know that this is very bad news. As a system grows it requires more energy, if that energy is not provided the system will fail.

Here is a somewhat humorous picture i threw together in 15 seconds. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexity_economics)

The closer to the top we get, the higher the risk (that is not speculation it is a fact).

After some volatility the next stable level will be around $50 (that IS speculation).

Funny you say that.
Considering you sold in the 70-90 range and then bragged in the forums about buying a Gallardo with the money.

Feels good man. (Cit.)

I sold above $230, will go through my post history to see if I can find proof of this (pretty sure there is)

Edit:

First is this post where I made a prediction to go above 220 that came true. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168781.msg1755969#msg1755969)

Here is my first prediction of a crash. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171792.msg1787290#msg1787290) (majority opinion at this time was that "bitcoin is different" and could go up forever...)

Here I state that I sold over half (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172493.msg1794684#msg1794684) and the same exact day after the crash begins I am feeling "smug" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172493.msg1795559#msg1795559)

Here is where I am even asking bitstamp about my SEPA withdrawal... (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=38711.msg1795657#msg1795657)

https://i.imgur.com/a9Y1Y17.png

u mad?

Truth or not what a waste of fucking money.  ::)


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: just1nmc on May 13, 2013, 06:17:10 PM
1k new subscribers this week? That chart looks great.

No one should be surprised that interest would go down after a huge rally and crash. Comparing current levels to the peak shows very little, and doesn't mean the price should go down further. We are still at March levels of interest, where most of the increase took place.





Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: oda.krell on May 13, 2013, 06:35:52 PM
Only one thing I have to say about this:

Should have bought a Merc.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: EuroTrash on May 13, 2013, 06:39:08 PM
u mad?

I'm fine now thanks. I made you jump through hoops to prove yourself.  ;D
See I think you're trying hard to impress people. And generally speaking, bragging your fortune is uncool. Unless you're Ironman. In which case you can brag.

Also ostentation makes you an easy target for haters and thieves. That's why most members of Vladimir's club are unknown.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Stunna on May 13, 2013, 06:46:30 PM
I see bitcoins at $100-150 stable until something big happens. It is up to the community to drive it further.

Also, nice car :p


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Crypt_Current on May 13, 2013, 06:53:16 PM
u mad?

I'm fine now thanks. I made you jump through hoops to prove yourself.  ;D
See I think you're trying hard to impress people. And generally speaking, bragging your fortune is uncool. Unless you're Ironman. In which case you can brag.

Also ostentation makes you an easy target for haters and thieves. That's why most members of Vladimir's club are unknown.

 ;D


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Ivanhoe on May 13, 2013, 06:55:02 PM
You are not a man of your word or did i miss something?

New Bitcoin wallet?

He has made some prediction and hashed it. That way it cannot be self fulfilling prophecy. When the prediction happens, he will reveal it.

Or if it doesn't come true, he lets the thread die and no one remembers it after a week.  Like they say, if you're going to forecast, forecast often.  This is just a smarter way of covering your ass from ridicule.

I will play your game: If I don't provide the info contained within 7 days, I will quit this forum for good.
Not going exactly to plan, but hope is not lost. Will still provide solutions next week regardless of outcome.

3F1E491B6C4F321C3781D77A17DD97F8691038D19DDC3B2DFBC72ACD6DA4F656

You got me. I am not a man of my word. Any more questions?
Nope i don't have any more questions, good day to you kid.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: michaelGedi on May 14, 2013, 12:54:42 AM

shoulda got a VW UP!  -- it has blue e motion technology:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Up#Production


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: BTC Books on May 14, 2013, 01:15:13 AM
You are not a man of your word or did i miss something?

New Bitcoin wallet?

He has made some prediction and hashed it. That way it cannot be self fulfilling prophecy. When the prediction happens, he will reveal it.

Or if it doesn't come true, he lets the thread die and no one remembers it after a week.  Like they say, if you're going to forecast, forecast often.  This is just a smarter way of covering your ass from ridicule.

I will play your game: If I don't provide the info contained within 7 days, I will quit this forum for good.
Not going exactly to plan, but hope is not lost. Will still provide solutions next week regardless of outcome.

3F1E491B6C4F321C3781D77A17DD97F8691038D19DDC3B2DFBC72ACD6DA4F656

You got me. I am not a man of my word. Any more questions?

No.  None.  But we already knew that.

Ooops - you  forgot to self-moderate this one.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: EuroTrash on May 14, 2013, 10:09:27 AM

shoulda got a VW UP!  -- it has blue e motion technology:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Up#Production

Speaking of cars. I used to have a powerful fancy coupe. I'm done with that style. Expensive looking cars mostly attract women of a certain kind that I don't like to share my time with.
My next car is likely to have a lot of power under the bonnet while looking discreet enough to do grocery shopping or go to work with.
I'm not into speed either. If you care for your license and for your life you can't really use any powerful car near maximum speed on normal traffic roads.
But acceleration, acceleration! Oh yes, acceleration I crave.

E.g. I'd rather get a humble Golf MK5 R32 and fit it with one of these kits:

http://www.jbsautodesigns.co.uk/product/3742/ts-650-06-r32

That kit... 0-100 in 3.1 seconds. Oh yes, bring it on! For the simple insane pleasure of overtaking where most cars don't have room to overtake. Or to smoke in the face of those smartass types who always have to get in front of other cars that are entering "their" motorway.

I'd even add a "baby on board" sticker on the back of the car for the laughs.


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: michaelGedi on May 14, 2013, 10:31:44 AM

shoulda got a VW UP!  -- it has blue e motion technology:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Up#Production

Speaking of cars. I used to have a powerful fancy coupe. I'm done with that style. Expensive looking cars mostly attract women of a certain kind that I don't like to share my time with.
My next car is likely to have a lot of power under the bonnet while looking discreet enough to do grocery shopping or go to work with.
I'm not into speed either. If you care for your license and for your life you can't really use any powerful car near maximum speed on normal traffic roads.
But acceleration, acceleration! Oh yes, acceleration I crave.

E.g. I'd rather get a humble Golf MK5 R32 and fit it with one of these kits:

http://www.jbsautodesigns.co.uk/product/3742/ts-650-06-r32

That kit... 0-100 in 3.1 seconds. Oh yes, bring it on! For the simple insane pleasure of overtaking where most cars don't have room to overtake. Or to smoke in the face of those smartass types who always have to get in front of other cars that are entering "their" motorway.

I'd even add a "baby on board" sticker on the back of the car for the laughs.


:)


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on May 14, 2013, 12:22:26 PM
Anyone else bored of people being surprised by completely normal, expected behavior of an exponentially growing economy?


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Stringer Bell on May 14, 2013, 12:40:07 PM
Anyone else bored of people being surprised by completely normal, expected behavior of an exponentially growing economy?

It has gotten old surprisingly quickly..


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: michaelGedi on May 14, 2013, 04:34:38 PM
Anyone else bored of people being surprised by completely normal, expected behavior of an exponentially growing economy?

yes, the whining on the wall observer thread is particularly grating


Title: Re: Reddit subscriber growth
Post by: Ozymandias on May 14, 2013, 08:26:52 PM
The whole sky-is-falling attitude every time there's a flash 3-4% "crash" is just annoying. The speculation forum basically devolves into the btc-e troll box.