Bitcoin Forum

The past few days/weeks has consisted of much uncertainty within the Bitcoin market due to the fact that people were unsure of whether or not a split was going to occur in Bitcoin.

However, when a large amount of support was shown for Segwit2x the value of Bitcoin suddenly soared upwards again.
This makes sense because it helped clear some of the uncertainty about what was going to happen to Bitcoin.
But, the value of Bitcoin has currently stopped skyrocketing and is now starting to level out again - near the peak price of the end of June.

This all makes sense but I am confused because, surely, now that Bitcoin has provided a solution to its scalability problem, shouldn't it be worth more than what it was at the end of June?

Also, some of you may say that the community is still a little uneasy about whether or not the miners will adopt BIP 141 (Segwit) but, based on statistics given by CoinDance, 97.7% of the past 144 blocks support BIP 141 (Segwit) so there shouldn't really be an issue there.

P.s I am new here so sorry if I have missed something or come across as naïve :)

I think bitcoin is undervalued. Just look at the news about bitcoin every day there are new projects where you can pay with bitcoin.

I think there is still a level of mistrust in the community towards the miners and how the two sides are going to react, once

everything falls into place. A guy like Jihan, is still on a power trip and he wants his own JihanCoin. The solution might also

just be temporary, depending on how these miners wants to shift their weight.  >:(

no.

value comes from more people and more use. not enough of either is here yet.

almost all of the price is in anticipation of more of the above.

in terms of future potential you could possibly say that. but then again if the potential goes unfulfilled you could say it's ridiculously overvalued right now.

BIP91 locked in is very small factor in determining the price of Bitcoin. There are numerous factors affecting Bitcoin price at same time because every hodler has different view and assumptions about situation.
Economic laws and possibility has no relevance in Bitcoin market.
For say, users positively reacted to segwit2x locked in which causes price upward movement. But now upcoming BCC fork, withdrawal/deposit restriction by Bittrex and overall correction in crypto world is keeping price stagnant today!

People are still waiting August 1 to see what will be going on. It's difficult to say if Bitcoin is undervalued with the situation we are seeing recently. Once all the drama is out we may start to see more people using Bitcoin and so as a snow ball it can boost the value.

In my opinion, there are some indications that the market wants to see higher prices - above all, that none of the dips after the $3000 high really could break the bull market - but is held back by the Segwit drama. It's about to finish, but there is still some uncertainty like Kprawn said.

But unfortunately, this sentence is still not true:


Segwit alone is only a short term solution and can ensure a growth similar to what we've seen in the past years (about 50% transaction amount growth per year) for about 2 years from now, and with Segwit2x, for 3-4 years. But the real innovation we're waiting for are working second layers (Sidechains with decentralized peg and Off-chain solutions like Lightning). Only if these milestones are achieved we can say that Bitcoin has solved the scalability problem.

That means that a massive, "justified" price increase is only to come when these issues are solved. Before that, everything is speculation that these solutions may come.

I don't think that bitcoin is in any way undervalued at any time. It's strictly valued based on demand and speculation might be a driving force behind its moves but it's only the subjective interests of someone that'd make em say it's undervalued.

Yes.

Honestly speaking, nope. Important factor is that we have various scenarios to focus on, plus the fact that things might not go according to plan at the time the hard fork (which is part of SegWit2X) kicks in. As long as we haven't 'fully' taken care of everything related to scaling, and the right implementation of SegWit, we should remain conservative. Bitcoin is a multi billion industry, which is exactly the reason various toxic elements might abuse the sensitive state of the market and miners to perform a nasty action, just to nurse their own greed. In short, being bullish on Bitcoin is well justified, but we shouldn't drop our guard.

What were the drives behind the April/May rise? I would argue the main one was Bitfinex disabling fiat withdrawals, forcing users to convert their fiat into cryptos to be able to withdraw. At the time Bitfinex was trading $100-$200 over other exchanges and pulling all other exchanges up. We only got to see a slight correction when it reached the ATH at $3,000. Wouldn't you say it was already way overvalued back then? Compared to its use. The main force behind its rise was speculation, not use.

And now we still have uncertainty currently and ahead. Exchanges disabling deposits/withdrawals. Whether Segwit will work fine. The Bitcoin Cash hard fork coming on August 1st. Bitmain's possible hard fork on August 1st.

When most buyers are speculators, the market isn't undervalued, it is overvalued, and has the potential to come crash down hard. Sure long term if bitcoin comes to be a widespread alternative to fiat then the price will be justified, right now it isn't, in the sense that speculators won't hold to their bitcoins if too many of them start selling.

When segwit2x will be activated than bitcoin will reach to value it should be which I think is more than $5000 per bitcoin. All those debate about block size and network clogging will be over when block size and its capacity will increase with segwit2x. More over we will have lightening network after segwit that will make it possible to make instant payments with bitcoin that might push price to above $10k.  ;)

So yes bitcoin is undervalued right now.

No it isn't we need fresh blood in crypto to get gainz. But after all this mess with segwit, normal ppl are scared

You are completely right that the uncertainty is dying down and that should mean bitcoin is undervalued. However there is still some uncertainty lying ahead.

First of all the scaling issues are only temporarily fixed, second of all there is a hardfork planned in a few months that the community still hasn't reached consensus on adopting as per the New York Agreement which was only signed on by some 80%+ of mining power. If the rest of the bitcoin community doesn't get on board with this hardfork there could still be a chain split.

The point I'm trying to make is though segwit seems to be going through without problems, segwitx2 is still not set in stone.

So basically the uncertainty is reduced but not completely gone, yet I do agree with you that it is massively undervalued because the community has shown at least that it can eventually push things forward and the increased transaction throughput available now means we don't need to worry about full blocks and high fees for at least a year or 2.

That has been the case since the very beginning, and will continue all the way till Bitcoin's ultimate high at some point in the far future.

I am glad that I chose to focus solely on hodling my coins at the very beginning. I have had the privilege to buy a decent number of coins below the $300 mark back in 2015.

Each time the price increases with another few hundred bucks, it puts a smile on my face. It takes a whole lot of patience and dedication to keep hodling without selling.

It would seriously burn me if I would look back at the price back then, and think why I didn't invest at sub $300 prices when I had the chance ~ buying and hodling makes you avoid dealing with that, no joke.

No such thing as fresh blood. People that joined in at the start of the rally are still in profit. Big investors like Rothschild are just now starting to get into assets like gbtc.

Exactly.   At least that's what I'm betting on.  I got in late to the game, and already I'm kicking myself for not holding onto what I bought last year. The profit would have been enormous!

Undervalued,  though?   I hate that word, because it's a business journalism buzzword and usually means nothing.   I'd say bitcoin has big potential.   So yeah I guess you could call that 'undervalued'.

there is no ultimate high point. that's kind of the point. if people still want it it should in theory carry on gaining forever at least in terms of fiat currencies.

I get what you are saying, OP. The ascent of the price was suppressed for some time because of the SegWit2x debate, and now it's resolved, shouldn't the price be much higher?

The price is already much higher than it was a short time ago at $1,900. Also, two reasons why it's not even higher:

1. August 1st is the big date in the head of the public. It's the date you can read about in mainstream media.

2. The hard fork is upon us now.

3. SegWit is not running yet.

I expect the price to rise steeply over August/September. That could start at the beginning of August, or maybe not before the end of August. But I think it will happen.

As you said it has already risen a lot, and SegWit actually running might make it rise further but I think people have already priced it in. I think the only thing that will push prices higher in the coming days is less uncertainty going ahead and the realization of being back to very low fees.

Although there is lower uncertainty, Segwit is not a permanent solution to the scaling debate. Once transaction fees drop back to previous levels and transaction backlog drops, we might see confidence returning fully.

Absolutely those people will be wanting bitcoin investments and they'll regret the neglections of opportunities that they had from previous 10 years passed. Some hated bitcoins because they thought in a wrong perceptions that it's a scam,  but to think it in reality and as you observe the actual drive of digital currency to the society has walked through profitable investments nowadays.

It is never too late to get into bitcoin.

When it went $100 people thought it was expensive
When it went $300 people thought it was expensive
When it went $500 people thought it was expensive
When it went $800 people thought it was expensive
When it went $1000 people thought it was expensive
When it was valued more than GOLD they thought it was insanely over priced

and today it is just under $2800 in which people consider it undervalued

So it seems we have move from the opinion that Cryptocurrency is a "fad" to this oh shit crypto is the future.

The Bitcoin community is still watching what can really happen on and after August 1 so there remains some fear and some doubts and these are reflecting on the value of Bitcoin right now. We really have to wait when the scaling problem can be declared to have been overcome and then we can expect Bitcoin to rise like a freed bird from the cage.

The current value of Bitcoin is still undervalued considering its big potential. We have been reading many analysts and enthusiasts predicting Bitcoin to go astronomically high in the coming months.

Yep, buy and hold is the way to go for the majority of folks. Its worked out beautifully for long term holdlers and the price will be MUCH higher with the next halving in 2020.

Depending the time you starting invest, as when you choose 2015 is base long term, you will have safe point and not need fearing the price of Bitcoin decreasing. But if you choose the price in current is base to long term, your mentality will always fearing by Segwit2x! :)

Well there is no one who is getting the trust value of bitcoin from users so we dont know about that.
If only we could question all of the users then maybe this could answer the question.
In my opinion, there is this "doubt" that is still within the users.
Okay we are holding but we are not buying more until this all ends. Somehow I think, that could be the reason for the steady price of it.

Maybe the reason why the value of bitcoin fluctuates from time to time is because it's value was not set properly, yes maybe undervalued...since the bitcoin started it's equivalent value increase tremendously there might some time that it goes down but afterwards goes up again....in later time I think it will raise to $5000...

Maybe just because of the FUD spreading bitcoin might be undervalued by few users. The growth of the token has been counting high and providing users with the best profitability. At times the price crash make users think in such a manner and undervalue it. Recently the Eth price increase too made people to undervalue the token. This is due to lack of trust over the asset.

I think so, once we get over this year with August and November out of the way and we have bitcoin running smoothly I think we will see a big move in 2018.

For a small community using bitcoin I think it's valued correctly.
We could have said its undervalued had it been used by half the population of the world or something, let us not forget price is usually affected by supply and demand and right now demand is not enough to take prices to the moon .

I want to foresee beyond 2018 also.
When we are taking total bitcoins and total world population and their spending and saving capabilities into consideration of bitcoin price estimations, we can be sure bitcoin is still massively undervalued just due to lack of awareness and popularity. But we cannot expect bitcoin to race at 200mph from the starting point, we must give it enough cooling period to get established.

These kind of BIP will keep on coming almost every year here after and I believe investors and traders will get practice to it so that bitcoin will continue its journey to attain its "original" value as early as possible, still it may need centuries too.

any thing that is so unstable is unervalued in my view, with greater adoption come also stability, so as long as you see current swings on the market that seems that might kill bitcoin, you know that we are still far away from the real value of bitcoin

real value of bitcoin will without any doubt be in the range of 100k-1M when real adoption kick in, with many country supporting bitcoin, actually i think that with amazon alone accepting it, we might already see 50k or around that

Not really. Unstable in most cases means that the market in question is lacking serious liquidity, plus it's facing several obstacles that it needs to overcome. Bitcoin fits perfectly in that category.

I doubt that, unless we see institutions come on board and totally dominate this market from top to bottom. If you look closely at how the market has been growing, but the volatility remained identical to how it was years and years ago, you'll see that nothing has changed in that regard. Greater adoption not always means more stability.

That's top notch noob logic.

Are we back in 2013-2014 where people were connecting merchant adoption with price increases?

In long time, target $5000 with Bitcoin very easy, potential of Bitcoin can't stop with this price. But in short time, Bitcoin need improve system blockchain first if want have more user and increasing the price in future. Because if just increasing the price of Bitcoin, blockchain network Bitcoin will always have error and congestion system.

Merchants adoption was and always will be a motor behind price increase, a key company like Amazon would make a huge impact on bitcoin.
Potential Amazon adoption would bolster the confidence in Bitcoin market, it would send a clear message that bitcoin is legit and good enough to be embraced by leading e-commerce platform.

To certain degree this is correct, more users will minimise volatility slightly, but I am afraid that bitcoin due to its decentralized nature would never be as stable as centrally controlled monetary systems.

Yes bitcoin deserves more price than what it is today.I would say that no body could exactly say that how much high bitcoin price would go.So even after some years,it would be still said that bitcoin is under valued.It deserves more,might be a million dollar in future.

Fresh blood is coming by split change. Means after 1 Aug. everything will be change in bitcoin. As you know that in crypto currency there is just only one currency which is pure trusted? Maintain image since years. So now they are changing something like everything will be change after 1 August some of example are given below like fast transaction and high speed confirmation what do you need more.

It was undervalued last week but since the 1000$ increase everyone seems happy with the current price it well again maybe because of the splitting in chains but i hope after this splitting is done the price may increase and this time the increase will be straight to 3000$

No, I'm not sure about the future of bitcoin, however, with the division, the bitcoin value will be reduced, with two different currencies, bitcoin only half the value. That is what makes me nervous.

I will take off the ‘maybe’, people are going to regret not investing at this moment or any moment prior to this date, bitcoin seems that is going to do very well in the future, I expect that the price will hit 5 figures in the next 10 years, and maybe even sooner than that.

Correct value for bitcoin at this moment is 100k dollars.

It IS undervalued, extremely undervalued, due to ego-fighting between weak effeminated freaks.

Do not worry bitcoin cash is not really a threat to bitcoin, bitcoin is going to keep most of its value, but as soon as that altcoin disappears the full potential of bitcoin is going to be unveiled to the world and I think we are bound to see a huge increase in the price after that.

I don't think so ;) It's more: The current use of Bitcoin does not even justify $1000, if you apply the Quantity Theory of Money, like this forum member did (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1990487.0) (his estimation for a fair price is about $200-250).

But I think all users that bought Bitcoins for more than - let's say - $500 are speculating that in the future there will be a much larger user base. But $100K would be already a order of magnitude where we would need a large portion of the world population using Bitcoin regularly. And I think it's not at all sure that that will occur.

We can do the math: If for the current user base (5-10 million) $250 is the "fair price" according to the QTM, then for a fair $2500 price we would need 50 to 100 million users (currently impossible without advanced scaling features or a massive block size increase to 10 MB or more), and for $100000, 2 to 4 billion.

Thanks for linking to this, this should help some see how much damage has been done to bitcoin these past few years.

That graph in particular is worth a thousand words (and a lot of risk capital too  ;))
http://imgh.us/btc_fair_value_usd_1.png

Things are never so simple, we know that if we think of the actual uses of bitcoin at the moment, then we can come to the conclusion bitcoin is overvalued, but if we think of the possible uses that bitcoin may have in the future then bitcoin is undervalued.

It is hard to measure real worth of bitcoin without adding speculations to calculation.
It is actually overvalued, not under, yeah. But lots and lots of people think bitcoin as one of the most profitable tools in economy and easiest way of money transfer.

Overvalued seems funny about your thought. As satoshi speculates bitcoin is still not that much value now. It will touch to 10000$ in 2020 I guess. We need to huge adoption and blockchain based projects come up to find the higher price in future. What people as you are saying also correct and you can also do the same.

That's what I wanted to say with my last post.

We don't really know if Bitcoin will reach real mass adoption (with "mass adoption" I mean hundreds of millions of users). Only in this case, Bitcoin is worth what it is now, and will be worth more in the future.

The reason we are seeing the current bull market is related: Segwit is seen as a measure that could be the first step for mass adoption. It will already make possible an user base of up to 15 million people (now about 7 million are estimated, and Segwit doubles the transaction capacity), and if smaller transactions are covered by LN, I estimate the blockchain could handle about 50 million users. With Segwit2x, if we continue this simple calculation, 100 million users are possible - that would justify a price of $2000. But obviously that is not the final scaling step - in my opinion, sidechains will be the measure that makes billions of users possible. And then the "price window" for BTC is open for prices up to $100.000 ;)

Bitcoin is not undervalued nor overvalued it's just that the price set for bitcoin depend on the demand and users, it fluctuates from time to time base on how it affects the market. I guess there's no particular value can be set permanently for bitcoin we all know there is only fixed number of bitcoin circulating the market so if users will have to increase or decrease the value of bitcoin will depend on that. But as of now it's really obvious that more and more people are getting interested and trying to use bitcoin so I think the value will continue to rise in the future

What you're saying is totally right about the consideration the value of bitcoin nowadays. We can't claim that it's massively undervalued since there is not big number of users and adopters. We still need more time to say bitcoin is undervalued. On the other hand, almost 3k usd per bitcoin is pretty high to me.

Bitcoin has been stated to be undervalued for years now, and if you look where we stand right now, it's pretty obvious that aside from what might happen in the short term, Bitcoin is always undervalued. If people talk about Bitcoin being under/overvalued, they should always have the long term in mind. Short term wise it's practically impossible to properly say that Bitcoin is under/overvalued due to the volatility and sentiment changes that can happen instantly.

If by "fair" price you mean a price based on just how much bitcoin is actually used as a currency to buy things, then yeah sure it probably would be around $250, because it isn't actually used a whole lot yet, most people treat it like a stock now, an asset that will appreciate with time, this is not how people treat currencies. So bitcoin is so much more than JUST a currency, which is why its price is an order of magnitude higher than what that "fair value" equation gives it. The fact is its use as money is only part of the bitcoin price equation so it doesn't matter that the actual price of bitcoin is so much higher than it, because it should be!

Bitcoin has aspects of a currency, digital-gold, immediate digital wealth transference, and a stock-type asset because it can be spent, used as a safeguard store of value when confidence in government created fiat is shaky, sending money quickly and cheaply to anyone in the world without passing through a centralized bank source, and an appreciating asset given that the userbase of bitcoin is so small still. So in the long term the current price is undervalued by an order of magnitude or two. In the short term, its impossible to say, sometimes its a little overvalued and crashes, sometimes its undervalued and a bull run gets initiated.

Market and users, ratio between supply and demand determine the price. And different factors, like recent August 1st can also influence the price. So it's hard to say whether is undervalued or current price is reflection of current situation on the market. We would all like to see even biger price because we think bitcoin deserves it but the price isn't forming according to wishes.

It's not proven until Lightning Network is proven (in the real world). When major wallets support it and it's shown to function for day to day payments, I expect a spike. (And genuine growth, too.)

Yes of course, just like I am saying today that how I wish I took btc investment serious just a year ago even when I was aware of it then. Anyway, I believe its never late to invest in anything good and valuable as Bitcoin

Yes Btc value will definitely increase as awareness and adoption in many countries improves

I agree with this. It's over valued. It hasn't managed to do more than 250,000 transactions a day, and with all the fees, no-one is using it in the real world.

I can't get you, what you mean by the real world usage. All that contributing to individual growth in a combined manner will lead to the economic growth of the country. So, what's taking place with bitcoin in majority was the real world transactions. In terms of physical offline usage we are lacking due to the online presence and no physical form.

So need have more HardFork for improve the system of Bitcoin and helps Bitcoin can become to cryptocurrency for money transfer, actually in current have many altcoins can replace Bitcoin about money transfer, fast and can the capacity transactions every day are better than Bitcoin, example Ripple, Stellar, Digibyte, ...

yes that is right that bitcoin is still undervalued. i think we should invest our money in bitcoin in resent time because the price of bitcoin has chance to increase and give us a good profit. i myself holding my bitcoin for the price increase and hope that i will get a very good profit in a short time.

The Bitcoin market is fluctuating, so bitcoin prices are down. Influence on bitcoin investment. I used to think I should stop playing bitcoin. I am still on the move and looking forward to the campaigns that will help me make more money.

Now I think the price of Bitcoin is the highest this year, and the current price is not underestimated, but if you look at this post next year, you will find that Bitcoin is undervalued because I believe that the price of Bitcoin will be higher next year.

I am not an expert but for me btc right now is overvalued. Being able to hit its highest so far this year during the first two weeks of August. Well it's just me and my observation. I don't have all the information in figuring this out since I am not really doing a deeper research on btc and not all the time online.