Bitcoin Forum

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

500k per 1 btc realy seems unachievable but 30k seems realistic if bicoin would become a complete currency and would be accepted as a payment. No one knows when it happens. It may be 3 or more years but it is achievable.
P.S. One day 500$ per BTC seemed not realistic. :)

I think you got the maths wrong  ;)

At $500k per coin the market cap is $10 trillion, a little over gold's market cap

Edit to add: your maths is right but the $10.500.000.000.000 you get is $10 trillion, not $10 quadrillion

Right, thanks!

Not sure about market cap but high bitcoin price will make people stand off from purchasing or doing biz.
I think this will be affect after we reach around prices like $20-50k. But I think even $100k wont surprise me.

Surprising that you just now realized that bitcoin is able to put the global economy on its head. For this reason I think that bitcoin will not be recognized ever. First and foremost, Americans will compete with bitcoin and we'll see who is in this fight to win.

All the other speculation of 500k is just a newbie who doesn't know any thing about bitcoin and just because he knows he's famous he told some random numbers. 30k is still possible but that can take up to 10 years. In order ti achieve 30k bitcoin has to increase by 8$ per day that's never possible for bitcoin either the price increases by 500$ in one night or it increases daily by 100$ for few days anf stops. Bitcoin isn't like a stock it suddenly get's a high increase and decrease

Probably as they think it is just like some of the physical gold that is just easy to mine with a very satisfying. And the features of btc can be copied by other altcoins although it is not easy to have own blockchain but in time maybe there would be a lot of blockchains and btc will not be that famous anymore. So i doubt there wouls be a great price hike at that state.

Guess we gonna see him eating his own dick on television. :D

Satoshi would be the richest person on earth ever, ever, you'll need to combine quite a few current billionaires to match such fortune.

many people waiting btc reach 30k but they don't think that this is a long journey for bitcoin itself. rather than to only waiting 30k, i think we can trying to make our bitcoin increase first so if the price is in 30k in next year or another years, we are ready to sell for getting profit. i don't know about marketcap, i only watching the price from the exchanges and i do trading like others.

btw, how can be John McAfee eating his own dick? lol  ;D

I agree with you . Although the current increase in bitcoin prices is very high but surely there will be a time when bitcoin prices are declining. If you see the trend is bitcoin will always experience up and down. So the assumption of an increase may be only in the number of a few percent, but I do not want to predict because bitcoin prices always end up with a miracle. Sometimes a seemingly impossible pricing can even come true.

Bitcoin is full of unpredictables happening at unexpected time, so price reaching $500k too has got possibilities. I believe in this, because regularly the price has been increasing along with more and more users entering the digital currency community. When the usage equals fiat, due to the limited mining of bitcoin the value goes high.

when bitcoin was trading under $1 value, total market of one billion was unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Nothing is unachievable and moreover marketcap is nothing but just a number as it does not denote the actual buying power.

Why this alone seems realistic to you ? There will be no guarantee that millions of people will keep holding their bitcoins till they become millionaire because in past, people had sold their bitcoin when they just saw prices $10 or $50 and missed and regret when bitcoin was hitting $1200 in 2013. Hence no cripple will be possible afaik.

That's called marketing strategy. Ofcourse they will say that because they are also owners of bitcoin. Many have state their predictions that "bitcoin could go over $10k blah blah". That's very unrealistic to me. $30k is even more impossible to happen. But only time will tell if bitcoin could go that far or not. Who knows? After 5-10 years bitcoin maybe bitcoin could hit that price.

and if all those 'millionaires' tried to become fiat millionaires only about 5% would achieve it before the price died.

the price is set by probably 0.1% of available coins that are on exchanges. that being the case then it is possible. it wouldn't require much actual expenditure in proportion to the market cap.

the question is how sustainable it would be. not at all right now.

Yes,500k is a pure speculation.I think the person who said this is very highly optimistic.But i think its far away from reality.But $30k seems achievable in the next ten years due to mass adoption of bitcoins and more countries coming forward to legalize it.But nothing could be said as sure.

A market cap in the trillions isn't unreasonable at all IMO.  Look at the USD and other currencies, look at the market cap of the s&p 500, and whatever else.  Is it going to happen quickly?  Probably not.  It all depends on how demand keeps up and how the governments emd up regulating it.  Hell, I'd be very happy if bitcoin hit $30k in the next 5 years or so, never mind $500k.

What you said is true that one day when the price of Bitcoin was 1$ or low that time 500$ price was very big and when it touched then next achievable target got it so what ever the high price Bitcoin shows it is true, so no one can correctly predict that which is the high limit of Bitcoin price. But like OP said if you make a small calculation then 30k price is achievable in 3 yrs.

op is also forgetting two other things - bitcoin deflation, fiat inflation.

even if it didn't gain in buying power, it's gonna reach 30k anyway assuming it stays alive and popular enough. when the block reward slows to a trickle all it has to do is exist to gain in value.

With current USD valuations, 500k USD per BTC seem definitely out of range, unless the US get stricken by hyper-inflation. Either way... I don't know about you guys, but I would still consider a ten-fold growth of Bitcoin a definite win, even if it means watching McAfee eating his own dick.

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

I do not think that the price of bitcoin can ever reach such heights. Bitcoin will always remain an alternative currency. Even if many people know about it, this will not give a guarantee that everyone will use it.

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

It all depends on whether or not institutional investors will start to take Bitcoin seriously. If they even allocate 10% of their entire portfolio to Bitcoin, we'll cut through the $30,000 mark like a hot knife through butter.

That's why legalization is very important. If we see various Bitcoin related ETFs become reality somewhere in the next years, it will definitely help opening the doors for institutional investors.

I assume that should Bitcoin succeed and live to see another 10 years, it will simply keep growing indefinitely alone due to the fact that governmental fiat currencies will keep depreciating. At least until a better asset class comes along. Question being how much of said growth we'll see in our lifetime.

Maybe 500k is impossible maybe not, but the truth is that even the most pessimistic forecasts speak of 10k in a few years and that's why it's worth investing ... long term of course.

The mcAfee one is just one I read a few days ago, there's tonnes of articles, videos, blogs and such from people talking about a 7-digit bitcoin within this decade.

10 trillion is completely possible, not in 3 years, like McAfee said, but in 10.

Marketcap for gold is 8 trillion, so yes, it is possible for bitcoin to reach 10 trillion in 10 years.

OP is a unbeliever.

Well, I'm a hard bitcoin supporter and early adopter, but your argument looked very valid to me. You're problably right about that bitcoin can't go those excessive prices. Nobody should expect that. $500,000 or $100,000 are really not logical prices

The reason, the market cap is not unlimitedly open to grow. There must be an upper bound in crypto market.

All those statements are just false statements, they are just illusions about their future if they use bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin is heavily impacted, and it has a huge impact on the economy of the world. The capitalization of bitcoin can not go way too high, because it can cause a global economic crisis.

That is a valid analysis and I agree with your points. However, I would not put a limit on the possible market cap, as counting the market caps as simply (Coins in circulation) * (Price) might lead to incorrect conclusions. Better to look at 24h trade volume, and in that aspect, bitcoin has been on the rise.

In general, $30k per BTC is a more conservative estimate.

Your logic is weird. People who invest early in successful companies/assets always end up with a shit lot of money later on. Early adopters are taking a tremendous amount of risk and they get rewarded for it justifiably. Think of the guys who invested in Microsoft or Apple very early on and held on to their shares for a decade. Those guys are rich beyond their dreams. Warren Buffet is one of the richest person in the world because he invested in all the right places at a very early age.

Why do you it think is any different for Bitcoin? Early adopters will get filthy rich (they already are). There will be a new class of millionaires and billionaires. Wasn't this case during the dotcom bubble too? Lots of people got crazy rich during that time. Same thing will happen with cryptocurrencies. People adopting now will get rich. For people adopting 10 years later, it will be just another asset giving 5-10% ROI a year. It's all about risk vs reward premium.

Unlike companies, cryptocurrencies have no national border. So while calculating marketcap we can't just compare it to Amazon or any other company. Cypto's reach is global and possibility of much large marketcaps.

Having said all this, there is no guarantee Bitcoin will be the dominant coin of the future. Most altcoins are technologically far superior to Bitcoin. It's questionable how long the network effect will keep Bitcoin at No.1. With the impending hard fork on August 1, the flippening might finally happen.

I wouldn't call my logic weird, per se. I just get fed up with a lot of people who think bitcoin will reach the stars because 'they want it bad enough and their heart is pure'. You must understand that in order for a bitcoin to be worth 30K, someone has to buy this coin believing it will go higher. True, there might be a lot of crypto millionaires and billionaires, but as soon as they try to cash out, the markets will drop again. That's the (only) problem with cryptos; the price will not be fixed, meaning that when someone takes out his fiat money, bitcoins price will drop. When one thousand holders all cash out 30K, the price will drop further.

Also, you can't compare an extremely young asset class to one of the most dominant and globally accepted assets in the world. Gold has been a standard for wealth and security for thousands of years. I agree bitcoin can definitely take golds place in a few decades, but you have to realise most people today are highly sceptical and conservative.

Last, the flippening will never happen. People are realising slowly but steadily that there's no company on earth interested in using ethereums token, they're only interested in the tech and possibly the chain. Plus, there are a lot of materials and metals better than gold, more valuable, more rare, more pure, yet gold remains the ultimate standard. Bitcoin will forever remain the first crypto, the one above all. Most future investors will be looking for a safe investment that gives a better ROI than the bank. They won't go looking for coins they don't understand if bitcoin is right in front of them. Also, august 1st will be a non event, the upcoming fork is planned for november. If anything, august 1st will have a very small dip, nothing more.

Q: "Why BTC will never be over 30K"

OP: "My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak ......"


When you answer a Why? you need a Because, not a guess

if someone see the price of bitcoin when it was at 200-300 dollars specially newbie like me will say like your headers above "bitcoin will never go over 2000 USD soon " but look at the price now and it is not a long time , so none of us can speculate what is going to happen to BTC 2 years from now .

maybe soon btc will be over than 30k, i am sure for that after i read some article that give information if bitcoin will be increase in future. this is good for me as i am new comer in bitcoin world so i can buy bitcoin and save it.

Why should we assume the economy or USD can remain stable for 10 years at this point in history where everything is becoming digital.  We could easy hit them numbers but perhaps the dollar will be worth 10 times less at that point.

This thread make me remember after Bitcoin breakdown from ~ $1300 to range $200-$300 in 2015, most trader say Bitcoin can't reach again this price, maybe died soon. But they don't know if buy some Bitcoin in that time, in current they can become millionaire as young boy not enough 18 age in Bitcoin news in few months ago. So, not have anyone can predict the future of Bitcoin, we just can waiting the time prove that.

You're assumption is that 10, 20, 30 yrs from now, everything will still be valued in fiat. However, everything could very well be valued in crypto in the coming future and thus these crypto millionaires and billionaires wouldn't need to "cash out". My point is, you're making a lot of assumptions to come to a conclusion that BTC can't break a $30,000 threshold. If there is one thing we DO know it's that honey badger don't give a fuck about what you think it can or can't do.

I think in just 3 years the Bitcoin has a market of 1 trilion, this means that every bitcoin will cost 60k dollars.

Hadn't thought of that. To follow up on that point, I believe in 20-40 years oil will be virtually gone, so the dollar won't be tied to oil anymore. It can go back to gold, it can go back to something new, like cryptos, or crypto (or another currency) will take dollars place. Like someone else said, everything is becoming more and more digital. It's only logical currency will become digital as well. Maybe BTC could become the eventual standard, a global currency. Btw my post wasn't intended to make a point, I just wanted to stimulate healthy debate about the future possibilities

Bitcoin will reach 5000$. It's a step by step process and it will not climb up for the highest price. It will fluctuate from lower to higher than higher to lower. The situation is always like that. So nice to know and to hear bitcoin will go through in 500k in just 3 years. It's a short period of time so big advantages on holding bitcoin for 3 years.

Achievement unlocked  ;)

As you talk about 2020 that the prices will go high then exactly it will go high if you are not just talking here you should go for investment by investment it is going very high. So everyone know that trade off everyone better so I would say that investment to make the bitcoin goal true.

The economy would not be crippled. How would you change the btc into fiat?
What bank will let you deposit more than $10,000 without freezing your account?
Don't be silly brother, the reason why the governments around the world aren't to worried about bitcoin, is because for now, it is internet play money.
    Sure bitcoin is the future, but without further guidance and regulation, how many of us will be left in the cold when it's time to cashout? You can move small amounts into different accounts, and credit unions, but thats structuring , which is illegal. I guess it depends on which country your from.
But lets be real, how would you legally cash out on $1,000,000 worth of coins? Because I certainly would like to know!

Even $30,000 per coin means a ROI of around 1,200% from the current rates. That means an annualized return of close to 28.2%. This is no small amount. The average returns from the United States Treasury Bonds right now is between 2.75% and 3.50% per year (depending on the tenure).

You don't get it. If Bitcoin ever becomes so big, that it's worth $100k/coin, you will not need to cash out. Bitcoin will become the de-facto currency. Your local grocery store is gonna be taking payments in Bitcoin. Your salary will be credited in Bitcoin. Fiat will be relegated to play money.

We dont know what really happen in bitcoin after few years or decades . But we hope for sure that the bitcoin price will become higher and higher. More people for sure want bitcoin price will become 10k dollars up to 30 k dollars after few years. But for me I think the maximium price of bitcoin will become 20-30k and I think that highest price after waiting few years. Many peolle said the maximum price is 50k plus but I dont think will happen

And why bitcoin will never be over 30K? is just because you said 10 trillion dollars unbelievable and unachievable?
Because many people will be a rich man in 3 years later?
I can't say for sure what will happen in the future, but considering bitcoin value growing in every year, if it's within $1000-$2000 and could leap even further after halving, then in 10 years later bitcoin should be worth around $25,000 it seems more realistic for me. But, who knows for sure? None of us.