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Title: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: futuredoc70 on July 29, 2017, 02:39:59 AM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH.
example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: DaMut on July 29, 2017, 07:56:14 AM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? In my theory we should be like this : Before splitting everybody will buying more Bitcoin,because after splitting they will get a clone from chain split and that thing can be sell in any exchanger that support it such as kraken,bitfinex and other exchanger. For example : We have 10BTC in our cold storage,after chain split we will get 10BTC+10BCC/BCH,and when everything is fine(we can do a transaction) i think more likely we will see another decline for BTC because some whales should be thinking how to pump BCC/BCH first before get out from that boat. So,based on my statement above all that i can see is we will see another long squeeze because of BCC/BCH existance but i will not last long. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: BitcoinerXX on July 29, 2017, 08:49:18 AM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? In my theory we should be like this : Before splitting everybody will buying more Bitcoin,because after splitting they will get a clone from chain split and that thing can be sell in any exchanger that support it such as kraken,bitfinex and other exchanger. For example : We have 10BTC in our cold storage,after chain split we will get 10BTC+10BCC/BCH,and when everything is fine(we can do a transaction) i think more likely we will see another decline for BTC because some whales should be thinking how to pump BCC/BCH first before get out from that boat. So,based on my statement above all that i can see is we will see another long squeeze because of BCC/BCH existance but i will not last long. wont it be more likely to rise (btc) from people dumping bcc to buy more btc? Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: kwukduck on July 29, 2017, 11:15:34 AM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? In my theory we should be like this : Before splitting everybody will buying more Bitcoin,because after splitting they will get a clone from chain split and that thing can be sell in any exchanger that support it such as kraken,bitfinex and other exchanger. For example : We have 10BTC in our cold storage,after chain split we will get 10BTC+10BCC/BCH,and when everything is fine(we can do a transaction) i think more likely we will see another decline for BTC because some whales should be thinking how to pump BCC/BCH first before get out from that boat. So,based on my statement above all that i can see is we will see another long squeeze because of BCC/BCH existance but i will not last long. wont it be more likely to rise (btc) from people dumping bcc to buy more btc? No it will be exactly opposite. People buy BTC now to have that BCC and sell it for more BCC as it is super cheap. It's an opportunity to get rich real fast. BCC is the only elegant solution. Nobody with deep understanding would support BTC and their bankster bought developers. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: futuredoc70 on July 29, 2017, 12:55:02 PM See, I am not loyal to either coin. I just want to have a decent understanding of possible price changes.
Is my analysis wrong regarding what will happen with short positions? As another poster mentioned, I think that another force driving the bitcoin price up will be people who are buying in to receive more "free" BCH. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: DaMut on July 29, 2017, 01:49:15 PM See, I am not loyal to either coin. I just want to have a decent understanding of possible price changes. Is my analysis wrong regarding what will happen with short positions? As another poster mentioned, I think that another force driving the bitcoin price up will be people who are buying in to receive more "free" BCH. No it's not wrong at all,everything is possible in cryptoworld.But we should move based on our understand and market. Indeed, Many people pushing Bitcoin one of their reason is to get 'a free' coin,and another reason is because they're regaining back their confident in Bitcoin because the activating of segwit.With segwit every transaction will be much faster than before,because of that many people who's having problem with transaction before support it back because of this. Not only that,Segwit is also a new start for Bitcoin in future development. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: panju1 on July 29, 2017, 04:01:14 PM See, I am not loyal to either coin. I just want to have a decent understanding of possible price changes. Is my analysis wrong regarding what will happen with short positions? As another poster mentioned, I think that another force driving the bitcoin price up will be people who are buying in to receive more "free" BCH. This is a reasonable possibility. Bitcoin's dominance is up to more than 50% now. Is it because the market really believes in Bitcoin again, or they want to receive BCC, we really don't know. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: oblivi on July 29, 2017, 04:34:05 PM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? In my theory we should be like this : Before splitting everybody will buying more Bitcoin,because after splitting they will get a clone from chain split and that thing can be sell in any exchanger that support it such as kraken,bitfinex and other exchanger. For example : We have 10BTC in our cold storage,after chain split we will get 10BTC+10BCC/BCH,and when everything is fine(we can do a transaction) i think more likely we will see another decline for BTC because some whales should be thinking how to pump BCC/BCH first before get out from that boat. So,based on my statement above all that i can see is we will see another long squeeze because of BCC/BCH existance but i will not last long. wont it be more likely to rise (btc) from people dumping bcc to buy more btc? No it will be exactly opposite. People buy BTC now to have that BCC and sell it for more BCC as it is super cheap. It's an opportunity to get rich real fast. BCC is the only elegant solution. Nobody with deep understanding would support BTC and their bankster bought developers. Ignore this troll at all times. He is either a comediant that does it for fun or under some sort of payroll where he is told by superiors to: 1) predict bitcoin crashes that never happen (in other words promote FUD) 2) promote big-blocker agendas (in this case, the BCC hardfork, im sure that if you browse his posting history you'll find out XT, Classic, Unlimited etc shilling) BCC is crap, it may pump or it may dump, the end result in the long term is the same: worthless alt. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: CryptoBoomers on July 29, 2017, 06:24:39 PM I think RIGHT NOW is an amazing time and we'll see a nice spike in the near for many reasons:
* We keep testing 3K. * Segwit. * BCC - speculating that ppl will indeed dump, to get MORE BTC once their done dumping. * If we do breakout past 3K, I don't think it will be marginal, but could go straight to 4 without too much volatility on its way up. * This will attract new people/turn heads quick, media picks it up again re new ATH's and more ripple effect to buy orders. * Tons of bad news (btc-e/mixer/ico scams..), BTC keeps resisting re price drops. * BTC % is https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage finally reversing and it looks healthy :) Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: BitcoinerXX on July 29, 2017, 08:13:29 PM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. Essentially, this is going to force everyone who is currently short to close their position, which obviously means they have to buy bitcoin. All of this demand will almost certainly cause the price to rise, no? In theory we should be seeing a pretty sizable short squeeze prior to the fork. Or am I missing something big? In my theory we should be like this : Before splitting everybody will buying more Bitcoin,because after splitting they will get a clone from chain split and that thing can be sell in any exchanger that support it such as kraken,bitfinex and other exchanger. For example : We have 10BTC in our cold storage,after chain split we will get 10BTC+10BCC/BCH,and when everything is fine(we can do a transaction) i think more likely we will see another decline for BTC because some whales should be thinking how to pump BCC/BCH first before get out from that boat. So,based on my statement above all that i can see is we will see another long squeeze because of BCC/BCH existance but i will not last long. wont it be more likely to rise (btc) from people dumping bcc to buy more btc? No it will be exactly opposite. People buy BTC now to have that BCC and sell it for more BCC as it is super cheap. It's an opportunity to get rich real fast. BCC is the only elegant solution. Nobody with deep understanding would support BTC and their bankster bought developers. aren't you a legendary troll and bitcoin hater? don't you always predict doom of bitcoin? this must indicate bcc is nothing but trash, thanks :D Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: 600watt on July 30, 2017, 12:02:50 AM No it will be exactly opposite. People buy BTC now to have that BCC and sell it for more BCC as it is super cheap. It's an opportunity to get rich real fast. BCC is the only elegant solution. Nobody with deep understanding would support BTC and their bankster bought developers. u pushing bcc is really telling. :D if it is guys like kwuck wanting it, it must be indeed bad. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: dooglus on July 30, 2017, 12:23:42 AM At the time of the fork any one who is short bitcoin on Kraken (and I imagine any other exchange supporting bitcoin cash) will be debited an equal amount of BCH. example: margin sell (short) 10 XBT/USD = -10 BCH (short xbt, long usd) Because of this, there is absolutely no way to break even off of a Bitcoin short, let alone profit. [...] Or am I missing something big? I don't understand your logic. Why is there no way to profit from a short? Here's an example scenario: I go short 10 BTC at $2700, and wait for the fork. In effect I have borrowed 10 BTC and sold them for $27k. I don't have access to the $27k. After the short, BCH flops as expected. It's trading for $2 or whatever. BTC has also dropped in price because of all the FUD. It's at $2k. I decide to close my short. I buy 10 BCH (cost $20) and 10 BTC (cost $20k) and pay off my loans. I have made $7k profit. In reality I'll have to pay some interest and exchange fees, but the basic shape of the trade still stands. Could this be what you missed? Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: magneto on July 30, 2017, 08:00:13 AM If you make enough money off shorting bitcoin, then of course, you would be able to pay off both your bitcoin core loan and your bitcoin cash loan. That is, if the crash was severe enough. Plus, the post chain-split bitcoin + bitcoin cash price should equate to around the same as the pre chain-split bitcoin price. So I see no reason why a shorter cannot benefit from shorting.
I think that the short squeeze has already come. A lot of people have been forced to liquidate their positions when the price rose to over $2500. They thought the panic dump would come before the fork but it obviously did not. Will it lead to a short squeeze after the fork? I don't know. But it sure can. Title: Re: Will Fork Lead to Massive Short Squeeze? Post by: timerland on July 30, 2017, 08:52:59 AM Um, no.
Kraken is demanding you to pay back the bitcoin core + bitcoin cash value on your positions after the fork, correct? But thinking logically, if you short a coin right now you would be getting the same thing, bitcoin core + bitcoin cash. Therefore, there should be no short squeeze if bitcoin price just stayed stable. There is no guaranteed scenario of a short squeeze happening, otherwise nobody would be buying into these positions in the first place. However if the price gets pumped up drastically after the fork then yes, a short squeeze could well be possible. Personally i know a lot of traders are shorting right now before the fork, on margin. But this has nothing to do with what you said in the OP, and is by no means guaranteed to happen. |