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Title: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on August 12, 2017, 07:58:10 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?
https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: DustyRah on August 12, 2017, 11:04:26 AM This ain't no bubble bubba! This is THE train and it has left the station, get your asses in or you will have to take an expensive flight to board it again.
No kidding, when big boys like Fidelity and Charles Schwab start tracking the COIN, its game over for the little drips. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Soros Shorts on August 12, 2017, 11:13:44 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: RoommateAgreement on August 12, 2017, 11:20:10 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? why would you think bitcoin is in a bubble when the price is struggling to go up! have you forgotten the dump to $1800, then the dump to $2200 then the dump to $3100 acouple of days ago. a bubble would have been a lot faster and a lot bigger than this with 0 corrections. let me quote your pic so it shows up: Quote all i can say about this is that this very same picture has been posted here every single time that bitcoin price has any kind of rise and each time it is the same arguments. and like always this picture is a very simplified one and it doesn't mean the bubble wasn't that small rise to $2400 and the drop to $1800 can be the bubble burst. and this is currently the back on track after the burst. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: alyssa85 on August 12, 2017, 11:29:57 AM I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock.
We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: cafucafucafu on August 12, 2017, 11:53:00 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K. If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: 1Referee on August 12, 2017, 11:58:46 AM I don't think we're in a bubble (short term speaking) unless we in the coming months rocket up to everything above the $6000 level. Everything below that is considered to be an overbought market for me. Realistically, a fair price in my eyes with Segwit being activated would be anything between $3000-$4000. It may be a somewhat conservative range, but that's mainly due to the fact that we don't know how things will play out at the time the 2MB hard fork is supposed to kick in.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Lancusters on August 12, 2017, 11:59:15 AM I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock. Mania is the first step to the bladder. People create it. Then you can all suffer. To turn the bitcoin for investment was the worst of all thoughts. Bitcoin around too much speculation. They constantly pump up the price, it discourages users and inhibits the development.We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: HeRetiK on August 12, 2017, 11:59:36 AM I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock. We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania. That's the fun part about this graph. While it gets posted during every growth phase it's almost always applied only to the current cycle, not the big picture. Plot twist being that all the cycles we've seen so far may just be blips on what in retrospective may very well have just been the stealth and awareness phase. Growth has been healthy so far, but it looks indeed like we may be entering the mania phase of the current cycle. Possibly even of the big picture. On the other hand Bitcoin might simply stabilize which would also be fine in my book. That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K. If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit. The drop to 1850 looks suspiciously like the bear trap in said graph. I too think we're not in a bubble yet, but there's not much missing to turn the current growth phase into one. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: U2 on August 12, 2017, 12:05:51 PM There are no bitcoin ETFs, mutual funds including bitcoins etc. so why did you keep the phase where institutional investors come in? They'd bring billions to the table but you think we've in a bubble now? Wait until some country makes investing in bitcoins easy.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: dakiller on August 12, 2017, 12:14:24 PM 1800 was the bear trap, and if the price doubles in a week, that is the signal we are in a bubble
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on August 12, 2017, 12:51:18 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. Exactly! To the OP: Short term bubbles happen, but they are short term so they don't matter. There's been several bubbles with bitcoin already along the way, so I'm not concerned with any short term bubble as even on burst you can be sure bitcoin will be reaching new all time highs relatively soon. As this poster said, in the longer term, we are still in the stealth phase. Institutional investors have not come on board yet, but it is looking like that will happen next year, so next year will probably be the "take off". In a year or two the current price is going to look so tiny most of the public will be thinking how they could have made so much money if they just invested in bitcoin by the end of 2017. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: aardvark15 on August 12, 2017, 01:27:25 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? I don't know if it is a bubble, but I do think there will be some kind of correction. The price just keeps going up so it has to drop sometime. There will be fluctuations in price even if Bitcoin isn't in a bubble or being pumped. I don't think it would be a bad idea to sell if the price keeps going up because you could buy back at a cheaper price. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: alyssa85 on August 12, 2017, 01:49:03 PM I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock. We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania. That's the fun part about this graph. While it gets posted during every growth phase it's almost always applied only to the current cycle, not the big picture. Plot twist being that all the cycles we've seen so far may just be blips on what in retrospective may very well have just been the stealth and awareness phase. Growth has been healthy so far, but it looks indeed like we may be entering the mania phase of the current cycle. Possibly even of the big picture. On the other hand Bitcoin might simply stabilize which would also be fine in my book. The best part of it is that the Mania phase is Yuuuge. We're just at the start and it has a ways to go. The trick is knowing when the whole thing is about to collapse at the Delusion phase and get out in time. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: webtricks on August 12, 2017, 01:52:48 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Bubble is created when commodity is overvalued than its actual value. But how could you limit the sky of so-called Bitcoin? You are not the first to ask about bubble phase, this discussion has been here on forum from long when it was $500 or $1k or $2k but see where we are today. What happened to those claiming Bitcoin prices to be bubble in past! There is still much to go for Bitcoin, whole of its rally depends upon public adoption which is still very-very low. As it will grow its feathers, price will boom and boom. There is hardly any bubble at the moment. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Carlsen on August 12, 2017, 02:02:21 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Bubble is created when commodity is overvalued than its actual value. But how could you limit the sky of so-called Bitcoin? You are not the first to ask about bubble phase, this discussion has been here on forum from long when it was $500 or $1k or $2k but see where we are today. What happened to those claiming Bitcoin prices to be bubble in past! There is still much to go for Bitcoin, whole of its rally depends upon public adoption which is still very-very low. As it will grow its feathers, price will boom and boom. There is hardly any bubble at the moment. But bitcoin with it's features combined with its limited supply, that is worth something! And when you think about how few people actually use bitcoin, I see still very much potential in it. Corrections will happen, there is no doubt about that, but personally I think that we are at the beginning of a very long trend! Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Red-Apple on August 12, 2017, 02:12:14 PM not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi ;)
and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean" Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: hosseinimr93 on August 12, 2017, 02:41:28 PM Bitcoin prices have risen again and everyone is talking about bubble. forget this. The price is real. What will you say when the price reach 10000 dollar?
There is no bubble. Do not wait for price fall. Buy bitcoin now. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: IIOII on August 12, 2017, 03:29:53 PM During this bubble I think we are between enthusiasm and greed.
But don't you worry: There will be more bubbles in future. Bitcoin is in a never-ending cycle of bubbles. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Iranus on August 12, 2017, 03:51:47 PM not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi ;) What are you on about?and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean" The bubble moved out of the stealth phase at around $1000, differing from the mean. If you look at a chart, you can see the bull market beginning at around August to October 2015. In late 2016 it starts pushing unusually fast, moving into the "awareness phase". In about March 2017 there is a notable sell off, which is the "bear trap". Then the price begins jumping sharply at the start of May, which is when the "mania phase" begins. During the mania phase there has been some swings, but only relatively minor ones. Even the drop to $1800 was not very significant. Now we are going so rapidly upwards that it is blatantly the "greed" or "delusion" phase (which is why the public, including you, are having delusions about where we are in the bubble). The bubble may have further to go up, but I'm already mostly out as I've been buying stuff with my coins over the last couple of days. The "mean" is somewhere between $800 and $1200 if you ask me. I expect a bear market to bottom out around $600, which could happen in the next two to three years. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: maokoto on August 12, 2017, 03:54:58 PM Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Anarchist on August 12, 2017, 03:57:40 PM In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: reflector on August 12, 2017, 04:08:01 PM Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come. It is not they want to know much. They does not about bitcoin first, if you say bitcoin is digital currency and then so and so information. Let them understand the bitcoin by themselves. You just earn the bitcoin with your strategy you have. Explain about signature earning and other online earnings. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Denker on August 12, 2017, 04:10:52 PM I'm not sure if we are in a bubble to be honest. Bitcoin was surpressed for a long time and maybe right now we are just moving where the price should be, wherever this will be. Probably we will see some overshooting but imo we are not there yet.
Some say we could still see some 3-5x from the actual price and then we see some emotional and massive correction. Just enjoy what you are witnessing right now and just take some profits if you feel scary. Bitcoin is wild and will continue doing so for many more years. ;) Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on August 18, 2017, 07:56:28 AM 6 days later, price has shot up $600...
Man I love that graphic. Still nobody knows exactly where we are, but we know its comin'. Its just human nature. So _now_ where are we in the bubble? ;D :D ??? Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Rahar02 on August 18, 2017, 08:23:27 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Basically, this cycle always repeated again and again in every year along bitcoin journey. I don't think this chart represent bitcoin development - movement over time as in the beginning and midway, bitcoin charts fluctuate a lot but seems increase rather than significant decrease because of fear, capitulation or back to the mean, and in the end bitcoin price should be steady when it reach the highest peak. But, if we talking about bitcoin bubble, we're still on awareness phase as most people in the world don't know about bitcoin or just know that there is a digital currency named bitcoin, but don't really know what bitcoin is. Wait until all media write about bitcoin and cause more people aware of bitcoin existence and its usability. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: mackenzied on August 18, 2017, 08:50:31 AM In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: HeRetiK on August 18, 2017, 11:11:41 AM In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time. Yep... the alt coin and ICO token market was definitely bubbly, although it seems to have calmed down a bit. To me it actually looks like most alt coins are in the early blow off phase of the current cycle, with a couple of coins and tokens lagging behind. Of course it might just be an alt coin bear trap, but I think that alts already have grown way beyond what is healthy and will largely depend on Bitcoin's next movements. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: cybersofts on August 19, 2017, 10:50:49 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K. If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit. Well for me, I think we are still in the awareness stage. There are very few people know about bitcoin still, this world is a big place. We are now still creating awareness to the masses about bitcoin and it advantages. Some people like the idea of bitcoin but they don't really want to get involved because they are old school. It seems like the people of next generation will adopts bitcoin more because they will be born in computer generation (Digital Age). Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: alyssa85 on August 19, 2017, 12:56:07 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. Pension funds can't invest in unregulated investments (because this is old people's retirements we're talking about). However, Hedge Funds can invest in whatever they like and I think this current move up in the last few months is hedge fund money. That is why I think we're at the first stage of Mania, which is "Media Attention". Once cryptos get ETFs approved etc, then we get to the part of mania labelled "public" where Joe Bloggs is actively choosing to put money into cryptos. We are several years off that. BTW, I think this chart is for cryotos as a whole, not just bitcoin - no way to know which coin will be top top when we blow the top. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: fabiorem on August 19, 2017, 01:04:01 PM I only sold BCH that I have bought earlier, and got some profit.
The ones I received from the fork, are still intact. I think BTC price will be tanked around 4000-4200 range for the next week, and it will only move upwards again after Ver and co. dump all or most of their coins for the BCH pump. By then, BCH will probably be on the same price range. Then both coins will start moving up past the 4000-4200 range. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: liuqi on August 19, 2017, 01:49:09 PM In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time. Yep... the alt coin and ICO token market was definitely bubbly, although it seems to have calmed down a bit. To me it actually looks like most alt coins are in the early blow off phase of the current cycle, with a couple of coins and tokens lagging behind. Of course it might just be an alt coin bear trap, but I think that alts already have grown way beyond what is healthy and will largely depend on Bitcoin's next movements. Wherever any altcoins value bumps up that even bitcoin value bump along with that. In marketplace stocks every digital currency have been increase with together. I noticed some ICO has started few months before that's value seems increased to 100 and more value. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Coffee135 on August 19, 2017, 01:51:11 PM Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: fabiorem on August 19, 2017, 02:28:56 PM Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi. Yes but bitcoin is not a classic asset. Bitcoin is a religion, that is what analysts are failing to perceive. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Barbut on August 19, 2017, 02:38:23 PM Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi. Yes but bitcoin is not a classic asset. Bitcoin is a religion, that is what analysts are failing to perceive. Maybe you gone a little far with saying that bitcoin is a religion, I understand money today is everything, but its not good to believe in money too much, I hope that you are just joking about this. Coffee135 made nice point here, and what i like most is his opinion that bitcoin can become full-fledged currency one day. That is similar with what I think. and reason why your comment draw my attention is my discussion in one other thread. Bitcoin already can be used in real economy, to not rush with overtaking, but for sure bitcoin can and will be used in real life more and more in the future. About bubble I can`t agree with you, more money pumped in, more usage and demand will push price up, you may call it bubble, cause bubbles rise like price now, but this bubble will not be easy to break. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on August 20, 2017, 03:46:59 PM not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi ;) What are you on about?and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean" The bubble moved out of the stealth phase at around $1000, differing from the mean. If you look at a chart, you can see the bull market beginning at around August to October 2015. In late 2016 it starts pushing unusually fast, moving into the "awareness phase". In about March 2017 there is a notable sell off, which is the "bear trap". Then the price begins jumping sharply at the start of May, which is when the "mania phase" begins. During the mania phase there has been some swings, but only relatively minor ones. Even the drop to $1800 was not very significant. Now we are going so rapidly upwards that it is blatantly the "greed" or "delusion" phase (which is why the public, including you, are having delusions about where we are in the bubble). The bubble may have further to go up, but I'm already mostly out as I've been buying stuff with my coins over the last couple of days. The "mean" is somewhere between $800 and $1200 if you ask me. I expect a bear market to bottom out around $600, which could happen in the next two to three years. It depends on if you are talking short term or long term. You are talking about the changes over the last couple years, so I assume you are talking about a long term view of bitcoin, and indeed that chart if meant to be a long term view from stealth to full public "mania", which only happens once in an assets lifetime (sure bitcoin had a bubble like this in 2013 but the mania was among the stealth phase people, it was a very tiny bubble in the stealth phase of that bubble chart). And according to that graphic the real price rise doesn't even start until after institutional investors have all gotten onboard. This hasn't even begun to happen yet! We are just now moving into awareness stage. On the global "public" scale of that chart this year we finally started moving out of the stealth phase. I expect over the next year or two investment firms will start buying up bitcoin and letting their clients buy bitcoin through them, when this starts happening you can know for sure that we are in the awareness phase. The public phase is when you can walk down the street asking people about bitcoin and a decent percentage of people say yes I have bitcoin, right now if you did that you'd be very lucky to find one person who has bitcoin. I just laugh every time I see an article or commenter on the internet talk about bitcoin being in a bubble, that's how you know they don't know anything about bitcoin. The only exception is if they are talking about a short term bubble that will pop and then find support and then hit new ATHs like we just had from May through July. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on August 21, 2017, 02:58:31 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? I do not think we are in a full bubble, part of the growth is justified, however I will say that according to the graph we are in the mania phase, but I think we still have a lot more room to grow, we are in the media attention or in the attention part of the curve, so there are a lot of profits still to be had.https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: aso118 on August 21, 2017, 05:52:38 AM Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi. The classic laws of Economics will tell you that Bitcoin was a bubble when it achieved parity with the dolllar, when it increased from $2 to $32. The laws of Economics wouldn't have told you that Bitoin will reach $4000. So it is up to you to see whether you go by the book or take additional risk. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Usainbot on August 21, 2017, 06:18:35 AM In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see I agree with that. The bitcoin is still in the left bottom of the S curve. It will rise when more people use it. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on August 26, 2017, 10:45:28 AM Bitcoin price currently above $4,300... bubble intact!
I think if there's one thing that will prevent the price of BTC from crossing... say... $8000, its transaction fees. It costs at least $4 regardless of the amount of BTC being moved to make sure it will be confirmed in the next 30-60 minutes. Double this to $8 and its getting a bit out of hand. Other platforms like Waves (though still very clunky), and my personally favorite crypto of all time DOGE, have considerably lower tx fees, and don't seem to have a shortage of miners or those willing to keep the system afloat. Speculation is the #1 reason why BTC would get absurdly high, which in my opinion, is $10,000 or more, even though some Wall Street analysts predict it going to $50,000 or even $1,000,000. They must either be on crack or not understand how transaction fees are calculated. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: arbitrage001 on August 26, 2017, 10:53:22 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? We are still in early stage of media attention. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: nizamcc on August 26, 2017, 10:56:58 AM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up.
The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: lumeire on August 26, 2017, 01:36:36 PM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up. The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? It doesn't matter if there's enough reason for the price to be at this level, if it''s overpriced, it's gonna correct itself. That is what we should prepare for IMO. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: mackenzied on August 26, 2017, 01:40:23 PM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up. The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? It doesn't matter if there's enough reason for the price to be at this level, if it''s overpriced, it's gonna correct itself. That is what we should prepare for IMO. In fact, high value will pose more risk. However, with bitcoin which is really stable, there is not any danger of it being high value, even, it also makes the jump for many other altcoin. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Basmic on August 26, 2017, 04:05:42 PM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up. The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? It doesn't matter if there's enough reason for the price to be at this level, if it''s overpriced, it's gonna correct itself. That is what we should prepare for IMO. In fact, high value will pose more risk. However, with bitcoin which is really stable, there is not any danger of it being high value, even, it also makes the jump for many other altcoin. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on August 27, 2017, 03:25:26 AM Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: nightrider on August 27, 2017, 04:03:09 AM Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come. Ransomeware has caused a worldwide crisis, many people have said that bitcoin is the cause of the consequences, however, here, bitcoin is just a tool, it is taken advantage of. Even then, bitcoin is also trusted because of its security. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: hello_good_sir on August 27, 2017, 07:36:09 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Personally i have a feeling that we are in the bull trap area right now. Either way, we are somewhere in the mania stages, or close to it. I don't think that there is any way that this isn't considered to be a mania when the price has risen by 1000%. There is simply no reason for the rise, or at least to fully justify such a big spike. WITH Bitcoin Cash going up, as well. Wouldn't be surprised at all when at the end of the year people start panicking and overselling. This is when cheap coins is to be bought. Don't become too greedy and keep buying even though it is clear the bubble may collapse at any time. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Yuuto on August 27, 2017, 08:33:23 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Personally i think we are close to the delusion part. Just look at the first reply here: This ain't no bubble bubba! This is THE train and it has left the station, get your asses in or you will have to take an expensive flight to board it again. No kidding, when big boys like Fidelity and Charles Schwab start tracking the COIN, its game over for the little drips. When people make comments such as this it just makes me think, how long is this bull wave going to last? The fact is that there has never been a bull wave without some sort of major adjustment following it. Bitcoin is no exception. I think that we'll peak out at around $4900-$5100 and then drop back to $4000, go up to $4400 once again and slowly adjust our way down. As the chart shows usually people sell excessively when they panic so there could be a buying opportunity somewhere in the next year. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: sasaku bitbit on August 27, 2017, 01:56:17 PM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up. The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? It doesn't matter if there's enough reason for the price to be at this level, if it''s overpriced, it's gonna correct itself. That is what we should prepare for IMO. In fact, high value will pose more risk. However, with bitcoin which is really stable, there is not any danger of it being high value, even, it also makes the jump for many other altcoin. This will probably give an impact on bitcoin if we are in a bubble balloons rising prices because the price of bitcoin tend to menyampai $4200, bitcoin has not shown which we expect will be close for several more days. .. I was expecting the bitcoin can be bubbled on the $5000 at the end of the month even early september Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: hatshepsut93 on August 27, 2017, 07:59:03 PM There's no actual proof that Bitcoin is in bubble, if the price is increasing quickly, it doesn't mean that it's a bubble. Bitcoin is very different from traditional investments - it's unregulated, decentralized, permissionless, started trading from near-zero prices, trades 24/7 and aims to revolutionize the whole economy. It's incorrect to use traditional analysis for predicting Bitcoin's price. And when you check past forecasts, no one is even close to making any good predictions.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: quarkyplum on August 27, 2017, 08:19:35 PM It doesn't look alike what you are imagining in your mind because unless we see $5000 broken, I will never even think of a bubble being set up. The prices tend to break $3600 more than 2 times but they managed to get over $4200 and after that, SegWit activated. Do you really think we have no causes to be at this crazy level? It doesn't matter if there's enough reason for the price to be at this level, if it''s overpriced, it's gonna correct itself. That is what we should prepare for IMO. In fact, high value will pose more risk. However, with bitcoin which is really stable, there is not any danger of it being high value, even, it also makes the jump for many other altcoin. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: guesswhat on August 27, 2017, 08:20:27 PM Stealth phase for sure, we haven't seen meddia effect so far. If you consider a few news about bitcoin as media effect, this is not correct. Honestly, I don't think we're in a bubble, but if we are, then the answer is stealth phase which is the first pahse of the diagram.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: magneto on August 28, 2017, 10:44:55 AM Stealth phase for sure, we haven't seen meddia effect so far. If you consider a few news about bitcoin as media effect, this is not correct. Honestly, I don't think we're in a bubble, but if we are, then the answer is stealth phase which is the first pahse of the diagram. How exactly are we in the stealth phase? Bitcoin is basically mentoined everywhere right now and media is only covering bitcoin stories because it generates a lot of hype and the viewers like it, and their hit rates go up. This is the definition of media generated hype, and bubble. Sure, in the long term bitcoin is definitely still in its early stages but we're talking about this CURRENT bubble. Which IMO, is already nearing its end. It's either in the mania phase, or in the blowoff phase. But definitely not in the stealth phase, and i think everyone agrees with that. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: IamHigh on August 28, 2017, 05:05:48 PM How exactly are we in the stealth phase? Bitcoin is basically mentoined everywhere right now and media is only covering bitcoin stories because it generates a lot of hype and the viewers like it, and their hit rates go up. This is the definition of media generated hype, and bubble. Sure, in the long term bitcoin is definitely still in its early stages but we're talking about this CURRENT bubble. Which IMO, is already nearing its end. It's either in the mania phase, or in the blowoff phase. But definitely not in the stealth phase, and i think everyone agrees with that. I agree with you on this matter. We should be in early stages of bitcoin, but this is not the stealth phase. One guy said that big ventures are not investing in bitcoin, so we're in stealth phase, but this is not right. Several ventures alredy investing in bitcoin for years. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Oceat on August 28, 2017, 06:01:59 PM How exactly are we in the stealth phase? Bitcoin is basically mentoined everywhere right now and media is only covering bitcoin stories because it generates a lot of hype and the viewers like it, and their hit rates go up. This is the definition of media generated hype, and bubble. Sure, in the long term bitcoin is definitely still in its early stages but we're talking about this CURRENT bubble. Which IMO, is already nearing its end. It's either in the mania phase, or in the blowoff phase. But definitely not in the stealth phase, and i think everyone agrees with that. I agree with you on this matter. We should be in early stages of bitcoin, but this is not the stealth phase. One guy said that big ventures are not investing in bitcoin, so we're in stealth phase, but this is not right. Several ventures alredy investing in bitcoin for years. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: drlukacs on August 28, 2017, 06:05:38 PM Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not. Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase. That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come. Ransomeware has caused a worldwide crisis, many people have said that bitcoin is the cause of the consequences, however, here, bitcoin is just a tool, it is taken advantage of. Even then, bitcoin is also trusted because of its security. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: audaciousbeing on August 28, 2017, 06:45:59 PM In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: hello_good_sir on August 29, 2017, 10:46:34 AM In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping. Nothing can grow out of a bubble, or at least not in history. Unless there is some justfiable reason for such high prices then i don't think that we are out of the bubble yet. The bubble usually ends when a) there is a massive correction or b) when enough new people actually use bitcoin to make the newly found price level justifiable(less common). It is usually a combination of the two. Has bitcoin gained any new users from this bull wave? Absolutely, that is way i think we will maintain a nice price level of around $2k-$3k even after the price correction. But we are still in a bubble right now, and it could pop any moment. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: In the silence on August 29, 2017, 12:53:16 PM In my opinion, I think bitcoin is gradually growing out of the influence of bubble and burst category because its seems things are just quiet in this past few days even with the increasing price of BCH and the various news concerning how miners are dumping BTC for BCH and all other news on the contrary, bitcoin is still maintaining its position that it becomes so hard know whether its dumping or pumping. Yes, the price now is not a bubble, it is now the stable price that survive the week, i see it dump at $3900 and back again at $4300 someone is dumping and someone is buying that dip.Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on August 31, 2017, 07:04:31 PM you must unlearn what you have learned.
Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: pitham1 on August 31, 2017, 09:15:17 PM you must unlearn what you have learned. Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. There may or may not be a bubble. It may burst, or the price might retrace to its earlier levels. In the end, if you have confidence in the long term potential of Bitcoin, it is only going to rise up. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on August 31, 2017, 09:32:10 PM I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014!
Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments). That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: bitcoindusts on August 31, 2017, 09:41:16 PM I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014! Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments). That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork. I agree that we are in a bubble but so far we are in the start of the bubble. Weighing the develpment, adoption and the increase ofBitcoin. The sudden increase in price this past months is quite steep and I can say the hype given by the announcementof the implementation of Bitcoin development that result in fork is quite high making bitcoin price to double or even triple in price. This is just the beginning of a bubble, and the peak is way far from here. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on August 31, 2017, 09:59:12 PM I think we are in a bubble. That nearly all of the participants of this discussion are denying it is a clear sign that it is already in a very advanced stage (Delusion or even New Paradigm). And don't forget we are in a bull market since $135 in late 2014! Yes, part of the growth is "justified" because of some (limited) real-world adoption and also the Segwit introduction that opens the door to a better scaling. But if it really will allow mass adoption is still speculation. Nobody knows if Lightning will work as expected (My opinion is that it will work, but it won't be the main payment method outside of micropayments). That does not mean that the bubble cannot go on a bit more. Perhaps we'll see $5000 crossed, or even $6000. But one has to be careful. I expect a major correction or crash before the November fork. But you are talking about a temporary bubble. Who cares about those. The bubble popped back in June and looky here we are back way above the June ATH. Bitcoin may or my not be in a bubble if you're talking about the next month or two, sure it might drop back down before heading northward again to break new ground, but who really cares when a few months later the current bubble high will look tiny in comparison to where it is at then? True bubbles form when something has reached its full global audience and they get overly excited and then it pops, bitcoin is maybe 1% of the way there...maybe! So I really don't get the crazy constant talk about bubbles. Does the short term bubble really matter when 3 months after the pop that bubble high looks tiny to the current price? Did the June bubble pop matter in the long run? of course not, will the next? nope. the one after that? nope. and so on. When the price is moving $10k per week upwards, then you can talk about a bubble. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on August 31, 2017, 11:32:57 PM But you are talking about a temporary bubble. Bubbles are temporary. They are normal phenomenons in the price evolution of an asset, when euphoria (about news or about the price evolution itself) lets "overheat" the price. You are obviously right that nobody would care if this bubble only lasted for 3 months. But in my opinion it is well possible that we are near a high that will last for a year or even more. We are in a bull market since late 2014. The last "leg" (from the last dip down to 1800 until now) has all characteristics of an Elliot 5 wave, there are only small corrections, the price is increasing very fast and has already more than doubled. In part it is justified, as I said, because of the Segwit adoption. But keep in mind that almost nothing has changed in terms of real-world adoption since 2016, and part of the Segwit speculation started already in the 1000-2000 $ area. In terms of real world adoption Bitcoin is still a minor "currency", so its price is based 90% on speculation on what could occur in the future. PS: I think Bitcoin will surpass $10.000 eventually, and maybe even $20.000, but not this year and probably also not in 2018. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: chesthing on August 31, 2017, 11:42:50 PM No bubble, will only rise from here until all of us are in our graves.
(only buy what you can afford to lose). Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on September 01, 2017, 02:30:42 PM But you are talking about a temporary bubble. Bubbles are temporary. They are normal phenomenons in the price evolution of an asset, when euphoria (about news or about the price evolution itself) lets "overheat" the price. You are obviously right that nobody would care if this bubble only lasted for 3 months. But in my opinion it is well possible that we are near a high that will last for a year or even more. We are in a bull market since late 2014. The last "leg" (from the last dip down to 1800 until now) has all characteristics of an Elliot 5 wave, there are only small corrections, the price is increasing very fast and has already more than doubled. In part it is justified, as I said, because of the Segwit adoption. But keep in mind that almost nothing has changed in terms of real-world adoption since 2016, and part of the Segwit speculation started already in the 1000-2000 $ area. In terms of real world adoption Bitcoin is still a minor "currency", so its price is based 90% on speculation on what could occur in the future. PS: I think Bitcoin will surpass $10.000 eventually, and maybe even $20.000, but not this year and probably also not in 2018. Yes all bubbles are temporary, but by temporary, as you say, I'm talking about a few months. The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more. I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Chrismeister on September 01, 2017, 05:52:08 PM There is not really a bubble if there is natural growth, and although it seems that bitcoin is growing a bit faster then expected, I still see this as a natural growth.
Although a minor correction is to be expected. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on September 01, 2017, 07:53:02 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Personally i have a feeling that we are in the bull trap area right now. Either way, we are somewhere in the mania stages, or close to it. I don't think that there is any way that this isn't considered to be a mania when the price has risen by 1000%. There is simply no reason for the rise, or at least to fully justify such a big spike. WITH Bitcoin Cash going up, as well. Wouldn't be surprised at all when at the end of the year people start panicking and overselling. This is when cheap coins is to be bought. Don't become too greedy and keep buying even though it is clear the bubble may collapse at any time. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Ultegra134 on September 02, 2017, 12:13:32 AM Indeed, a really nice point you are showing right here. Although, I don't think Bitcoin's price chart can be explained by the specific graph.
Bitcoin had a few recent pumps, but also a few dump periods. The price fluctuated a lot when it was in its $3000's, dumping back to $2000s and then recovering to $2500~. It took some time to recover back to $3000 and then start pumping again, although it had a few price stabilizations during that period. For example, it's been around two weeks now that the price is in low $4000's. However, the recent price pumps have got me worried, makes me reconsider if I should keep saving on BTC or not, since the price may fall. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: iamTom123 on September 02, 2017, 02:28:19 AM you must unlearn what you have learned. Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. I find this a little bit funny...maybe soon we would realize that bubble is not really happening because in fact we are the bubbles flying around the corner looking for something which we should not be looking in the first place. Some analyst would love to compare the tulip bulb mania bubble that happened centuries ago with what is happening right now in Bitcoin. But the question is: Is the comparison fair enough? Or are they just using that history because it happened anyway without looking at the factors and features of both sides. However, it is always good to be forewarned so in case history would really repeat itself then we are already prepared...and as always be wise with the things you are investing your money with. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: feelideb on September 02, 2017, 02:44:56 AM No bubble here my friend. Every time media scream bubble bitcoin always reaches a new height
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: nobbynobbynoob on September 02, 2017, 03:17:18 PM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now...
Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Similificator on September 02, 2017, 03:41:41 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Certainly, this is not anywhere near a bubble. The prices didn't rise that high and fast plus it had several drops(corrections) along the way. And we are yet to far to reach the peak price of btc. Although this wave may get to a peak of about 4k-5500ish mark before it drops too far which can even go further as people start to panicksell. Which could also be a good time to get some butcoins for ourselves. But even i am not sure with this. But what im sure at is that the people with the strongest heart will reap great rewards in two years time. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: que91 on September 02, 2017, 04:07:05 PM No bubble here my friend. Every time media scream bubble bitcoin always reaches a new height Maybe, you are newbie in Bitcoin market so you have that thought. If you think Bitcoin have not bubble, you are wrong and this opinion will make you loss a lot of money before you understand that. An asset grow x4 in short time why cannot call is bubble?Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Sevvero on September 02, 2017, 04:38:03 PM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? Of course and the bubble is bursting exactly now. Sell if you have a brain!https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? Quote If you think Bitcoin have not bubble, you are wrong and this opinion will make you loss a lot of money before you understand that. An asset grow x4 in short time why cannot call is bubble? God damn it, another Pajeet. Learn English or GTFO. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: chesthing on September 03, 2017, 12:17:19 AM Gonna pop soon, better dump and run.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: sebastianpenguen on September 03, 2017, 01:02:58 AM No bubble here my friend. Every time media scream bubble bitcoin always reaches a new height Maybe, you are newbie in Bitcoin market so you have that thought. If you think Bitcoin have not bubble, you are wrong and this opinion will make you loss a lot of money before you understand that. An asset grow x4 in short time why cannot call is bubble?Twitter and apple shares on american stock exchanges also made huge multiplier runs. So are Apple and Twitter scams too? Or if crude oil price makes 4x this year, will you also thing crude oil is not real and it's a scam? I see very interesting comments in the forum last weeks. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: hello_good_sir on September 03, 2017, 01:49:52 AM you must unlearn what you have learned. Do not try and predict the bubble. That's impossible. Instead only realize the truth... There is no bubble. Then you will see it is not the bubble that pops, it is yourself. That's BS. Over 1000% of profits in a year and yet this is not a bubble? Plus, this is what everyone says when there is a bubble. Everyone is over-optimistic and seems to have no logical thinking skills whatsoever. There are people out there predicting $7k+ for this month, which i believe in absurd. It could happen, but then the bubble just got bigger. If bitcoin actually improved 10x as a currency and functioned better, as well as getting more users then sure, this 1000% rise isn't a bubble. But it probably hasn't even doubled its attributes or user base since last year. I think that we are in the mania phase already judging from how the price is going atm. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: magneto on September 03, 2017, 02:29:01 AM I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble? https://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts? We are close to, if not already at the new paradigm level. The correction from yesterday could potentially be the first sell off, and the next pump may be the bull trap coming in. Obviously it is hard to judge but this is what i think is happening. People are saying that this is not a bubble and others are predicting crazy growth for next year. I think this is a very clear indicator that people are extremely greedy right now, and when the mania ends the price will correct down to at least $3.5k. Also, for anyone interested, goldman sachs predicted that the price of bitcoin would top at around $4800. They seem to be reasonably accurate looking at it right now. I think that the prediction by goldman sachs caused the sell-off at near $5k, rather than the other way round. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: cpfreeplz on September 03, 2017, 02:34:25 AM We are close to, if not already at the new paradigm level. The correction from yesterday could potentially be the first sell off, and the next pump may be the bull trap coming in. Obviously it is hard to judge but this is what i think is happening. People are saying that this is not a bubble and others are predicting crazy growth for next year. I think this is a very clear indicator that people are extremely greedy right now, and when the mania ends the price will correct down to at least $3.5k. Also, for anyone interested, goldman sachs predicted that the price of bitcoin would top at around $4800. They seem to be reasonably accurate looking at it right now. I think that the prediction by goldman sachs caused the sell-off at near $5k, rather than the other way round. We're not even remotely close to mainstream. Care to explain how we're already in a phase that we're literally too small of a market cap to be in? Does 1 in every thousand people in the world own some bitcoins? How about 1/ 1 million? Lol. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CryptoBry on September 03, 2017, 02:53:54 AM People are really loves of speculations...they bought some Bitcoin because of its speculative value and they keep on speculating again when Bitcoin can go bust. Maybe it is really part of our human nature to be thinking of the days ahead even if we know that we are essentially powerless to know for sure.
Are we in the bubble? Of course not, we are seeing here is correction and we know that Bitcoin has so many corrections precisely because it wants to avoid the BIG BUBBLE. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: btcney on September 03, 2017, 05:14:22 AM People are really loves of speculations...they bought some Bitcoin because of its speculative value and they keep on speculating again when Bitcoin can go bust. Maybe it is really part of our human nature to be thinking of the days ahead even if we know that we are essentially powerless to know for sure. Are we in the bubble? Of course not, we are seeing here is correction and we know that Bitcoin has so many corrections precisely because it wants to avoid the BIG BUBBLE. But we are already in the bubble, and we are continuing to go up. We really haven't had any major corrections until this one, from the start of August. And we are almost at double the price that we have seen a month ago right now. And that price at the start of august was already very very high. How is this not a bubble? Please explain to me. It's always hard to predict where we are exactly in a bubble, but i think that we are nearing the mid to late stages of the bubble. Definitely near mania phase. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Proton2233 on September 03, 2017, 12:17:17 PM Partially for a long time bitcoin is a bubble. The only positive effect on the economy from bitcoin is to stimulate the production of computer equipment. It's good, but this is very small in order to be able to say that bitcoin the currency is reliable and has support. Fixed capital investment in bitcoin is speculative. This is a typical sign of a bubble.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 03, 2017, 03:04:18 PM The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more. The problem is that the "adoption" we think to see now, in reality, is only speculation. And, at least in part, speculation of the worst kind. A significant part of the demand is based on MLM schemes in many parts of the world and other scams. When these schemes pop, then we'll have disappointed "potential customers" all over the world. No, I'm not saying "it already popped". What's presently happening is a normal correction/downmove. But I don't think we'll go steady up to 10K and more from now. My prediction is that the large crash is still before us - when the price increases are too slow to feed the MLM schemes (maybe we have already seen 2017's high at ~4950) and they pop. Quote I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop. I have heard this argument many times, but I don't agree. With a higher market cap, it becomes increasingly more difficult for the price to increase drastically. With a low market cap, you put in a few million dollars and the price doubles or triples. In the present situation, that's not longer true. Bitcoin has now a market cap that's more similar to major stocks. Every stock that almost doubled in a month will be considered in a bubble if it's not justified by some big achievement. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Paycoinzzz on September 03, 2017, 03:33:45 PM Partially for a long time bitcoin is a bubble. The only positive effect on the economy from bitcoin is to stimulate the production of computer equipment. It's good, but this is very small in order to be able to say that bitcoin the currency is reliable and has support. Fixed capital investment in bitcoin is speculative. This is a typical sign of a bubble. However, if you can understand this is bubble growht of Bitcoin while you can earn profit from it, it still well.For me, the bubble growth of Bitcoin never breakdown in this year, it just getting started and have not reason make that worst future become true. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: bobitza on September 03, 2017, 08:04:01 PM That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Solarbankers on September 03, 2017, 08:49:22 PM 7k USD by the end of the year, my two cents. Bubble or not, that is where we are heading...
_______________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ ▃ ▃ ▃ █ ▌▐ SOLARBANKERS (http://solarbankers.com/)▐ ▐ █ ●—●—●— ●—●—●— ●— ●—●— ● THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIGHT ●— ●—●— ●— ●—●— ●—●— ●— ● ● ICO launch October - November 2017 ● PRE-ICO OPEN NOW! 86% OFF! (http://solarbankers.com)● — Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/solarbankerssingapore/) — Twitter (https://twitter.com/solarbankers_?lang=en) — BTC Talk Thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2064964.0) — Telegram (https://t.me/solarbankersICO) Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: mast3rm1nd on September 03, 2017, 09:39:31 PM I don't think we are at the public phase yet; people aren't talking about btc as they should.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: BunnyShibe on September 03, 2017, 11:35:34 PM That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time. but i do not think that we are in bubble because i think that the it is the actual price of bitcoin which has more potential to increase its price. i am sure that the price of bitcoin will very soon recover its price therefore i think we do not need to worry about the price of bitcoin and should invest more and more money in bitcoin because the price of bitcoin will still continue to increase. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 03, 2017, 11:50:28 PM I don't think we are at the public phase yet; people aren't talking about btc as they should. You are confusing the "adoption curve" (the usage of Bitcoin by real people, a "real-world economy" topic) with a "bubble curve" (the speculation on future usage, a "financial economy" topic).It's the same if some people say "Bitcoin IS a bubble" and not "Bitcoin [sometimes] HAS (experiences) bubbles". Mainstream adoption in Bitcoin can be also achieved after many, many bubble cycles. And we had bubbles even much before of any mainstream adoption (2011/13, when Bitcoin almost only existed on one single website - MtGox!). Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Zenithar on September 04, 2017, 11:45:56 PM That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time. but i do not think that we are in bubble because i think that the it is the actual price of bitcoin which has more potential to increase its price. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: thecodebear on September 05, 2017, 12:12:09 AM The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more. The problem is that the "adoption" we think to see now, in reality, is only speculation. And, at least in part, speculation of the worst kind. A significant part of the demand is based on MLM schemes in many parts of the world and other scams. When these schemes pop, then we'll have disappointed "potential customers" all over the world. No, I'm not saying "it already popped". What's presently happening is a normal correction/downmove. But I don't think we'll go steady up to 10K and more from now. My prediction is that the large crash is still before us - when the price increases are too slow to feed the MLM schemes (maybe we have already seen 2017's high at ~4950) and they pop. Quote I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop. I have heard this argument many times, but I don't agree. With a higher market cap, it becomes increasingly more difficult for the price to increase drastically. With a low market cap, you put in a few million dollars and the price doubles or triples. In the present situation, that's not longer true. Bitcoin has now a market cap that's more similar to major stocks. Every stock that almost doubled in a month will be considered in a bubble if it's not justified by some big achievement. KEY difference here: bitcoin is not a stock!!! It is not a single company's shares, it is an entire global payment platform and currency. Yes its market cap is now the size of pretty big companies, and yet bitcoin's global adoption is absolutely microscopic still. You can't compare bitcoin's market cap to the stock of a single company. A better comparison is gold. Bitcoin is about 1% the size of the gold market cap. So it terms of bitcoin's potential it is in fact still a very very low market cap, which is why it can grow a lot and simply get a correction, like it is currently getting, and then keep growing, without collapsing in a bubble pop as long as adoption continues to grow. People really shouldn't even be talking about bitcoin being in a bubble unless it gets into the 6-digits but isn't actually used for payments much, that would tell you that there is a ton of investor money in it without it actually being used much. So talking about a bitcoin bubble at $5000 is just a complete joke. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Bitcoinaire on September 05, 2017, 03:10:44 AM The only bitcoin bubble whose crash lasted for more than a few months was from Mt Gox dying. That was the most catastrophic thing to happen to bitcoin, so unless you think a similar event is going to happen soon, what you are predicting is extremely unlikely. Without a catastrophic catalyst like that, we're probably not gonna have any bubble pops that last for more than a few months. The buy pressure and increasing userbase/adoption is just too damn strong to possibly allow a down period of a year or more. The problem is that the "adoption" we think to see now, in reality, is only speculation. And, at least in part, speculation of the worst kind. A significant part of the demand is based on MLM schemes in many parts of the world and other scams. When these schemes pop, then we'll have disappointed "potential customers" all over the world. No, I'm not saying "it already popped". What's presently happening is a normal correction/downmove. But I don't think we'll go steady up to 10K and more from now. My prediction is that the large crash is still before us - when the price increases are too slow to feed the MLM schemes (maybe we have already seen 2017's high at ~4950) and they pop. Quote I wouldn't even call this a bubble at all. Look at past bitcoin bubbles. The price increased 10-fold or 30-fold or whatever in a couple of months. This has been a gradual increase, up 10-fold in over a year, not in two months. That suggests steady solid growth, not a frenzy induced bubble that will pop. I have heard this argument many times, but I don't agree. With a higher market cap, it becomes increasingly more difficult for the price to increase drastically. With a low market cap, you put in a few million dollars and the price doubles or triples. In the present situation, that's not longer true. Bitcoin has now a market cap that's more similar to major stocks. Every stock that almost doubled in a month will be considered in a bubble if it's not justified by some big achievement. KEY difference here: bitcoin is not a stock!!! It is not a single company's shares, it is an entire global payment platform and currency. Yes its market cap is now the size of pretty big companies, and yet bitcoin's global adoption is absolutely microscopic still. You can't compare bitcoin's market cap to the stock of a single company. A better comparison is gold. Bitcoin is about 1% the size of the gold market cap. So it terms of bitcoin's potential it is in fact still a very very low market cap, which is why it can grow a lot and simply get a correction, like it is currently getting, and then keep growing, without collapsing in a bubble pop as long as adoption continues to grow. People really shouldn't even be talking about bitcoin being in a bubble unless it gets into the 6-digits but isn't actually used for payments much, that would tell you that there is a ton of investor money in it without it actually being used much. So talking about a bitcoin bubble at $5000 is just a complete joke. That was very well said. I believe we hit $5,000 and people took some profits, then China came out with the ICO ban and then the bottom went out and theres a big selloff. This will be similar to the Jan 2017 selloff and the ETF selloff in March. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 05, 2017, 05:16:29 AM KEY difference here: bitcoin is not a stock!!! What has this to do with the difficulty to rise its market cap? Nothing.Quote You can't compare bitcoin's market cap to the stock of a single company. A better comparison is gold. Bitcoin is about 1% the size of the gold market cap. False. That's what bitcoin permabulls will tell you to buy in and get burned. But Bitcoin is in fact much more similar to a company than to gold. Gold is a really scarce resource. Bitcoin is only scarce on a superficial level, because of the 21 million coins limit. But it has 1000+ similar competitors - only the first mover advantage, which resulted until now in a more extensive network, protects it from the "Flippening" (another coin taking the lead). Quote People really shouldn't even be talking about bitcoin being in a bubble unless it gets into the 6-digits but isn't actually used for payments much, that would tell you that there is a ton of investor money in it without it actually being used much. So talking about a bitcoin bubble at $5000 is just a complete joke. Have you read my previous answer? It doesn't seem so, because I addressed this point. We had already two bubbles (or three, if we say that in 2013 there were two bubbles) where the price needed more than a year to recover. 2011 and 2013. Again: I'm talking about bubbles as a temporary overheating, where the price takes longer than a few months to recover. Not about the absolute peak BTC will reach in his lifetime. And another think I want to remark: There is no obligation for the Bitcoin price to go to $5000, or $10000. Things can change rapidly: a better competitor can emerge and take over the lead, Bitcoin exchanges and other services can be banned by governments (look at China) or even crypto currencies can disappear because of a better technology. And "some investors" are not that important. In 2013 the Winklevii and even Al Gore were already in. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: alyssa85 on September 05, 2017, 10:22:49 AM Regarding Bubbles, here is an interesting article:
https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/ Quote Yale economics professor Robert Shiller won the Nobel prize for his work on bubbles. He wrote a seminal book on speculative manias, Irrational Exuberance, a deep analysis of the dramas over the centuries when otherwise sane people drove prices for tulips, stocks, and houses to inexplicable heights. Shiller developed some of the tools that are considered vital for taking a sober look at markets. He helped create indexes for measuring real estate prices and his stock market valuation indicator, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, is seen as one of the best forecasting models for stock returns. As Shiller sees it, “big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it.” Quartz spoke with him about some of the frothiest assets today, from bitcoin to tech stocks. Quartz: What are the best examples now of irrational exuberance or speculative bubbles? Shiller: The best example right now is bitcoin. And I think that has to do with the motivating quality of the bitcoin story. And I’ve seen it in my students at Yale. You start talking about bitcoin and they’re excited! And I think, what’s so exciting? You have to think like humanities people. What is this bitcoin story? It starts with Satoshi Nakamoto—remember him? The mysterious figure who may or may not be real. He’s never been found. That has a nice mystery quality to it. And then he has this clever idea about encryption and blockchain and public ledgers, and somehow the idea is so powerful that governments can’t even stop it. You can’t regulate this. It kind of fits in with the angst of this time in history. If you look at the third edition of Irrational Exuberance, I’m arguing that there’s a fundamental deep angst of our digitization and computers, that people wonder what their place is in this new world. What’s it going to be like in 10, 20, or 30 years, and will I have a job? Will I have anything? Somehow bitcoin fits into that and it gives a sense of empowerment: I understand what’s happening! I can speculate and I can be rich from understanding this! That kind of is a solution to the fundamental angst. So I’m trying to deconstruct the bitcoin story. Big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: aeternus on September 05, 2017, 06:23:44 PM I think there is a legitimate reason for the growth but like always the market is trading at a value higher than it should so in my opinion we are on the bull trap, people are going to keep buying, the price is going to go up once again and in a few months they are going to realize the mistake they made.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Stedsm on September 05, 2017, 06:28:55 PM I think we have already seen the correction mode being turned on atm and bitcoin is getting down slowly but according to support levels, it has already reached its least and it should start getting back upwards. I don't know why these Chinese are wasting too much time to take Bitcoins above 5k, maybe because they want more hype being spread around. ;)
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 06, 2017, 12:45:29 AM I think we have already seen the correction mode being turned on atm and bitcoin is getting down slowly but according to support levels, it has already reached its least and it should start getting back upwards. For now, it seems so, but I wouldn't bet on it. It could easily be the well-known "dead cat bounce". Or the price could form a double top some days from now. We have three fundamental reasons for a bear market in the coming months: - China's strict ICO regulation or even prohibition (that should hit altcoins more, but also affect Bitcoin a bit) - The November fork. - The extremely bullish market in August, when price almost doubled, making me believe that the market overheated. We can see several days or even weeks above $4000 from now on. But I only will believe the bull market continues if the September 1 high is sustainably broken (=not just by 10 or 30 dollars/BTC). @alyssa85: Would be interesting to apply the CAPE ratio to Bitcoin. I read it's the current price divided by its 10-year moving average, adjusted by inflation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio). In Bitcoin I think the CAPE ratio would be insanely high, although we probably should modify it to include only the years when a real market was available (2010 onwards). Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: jubalix on September 06, 2017, 01:50:57 AM Regarding Bubbles, here is an interesting article: https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/ Quote Yale economics professor Robert Shiller won the Nobel prize for his work on bubbles. He wrote a seminal book on speculative manias, Irrational Exuberance, a deep analysis of the dramas over the centuries when otherwise sane people drove prices for tulips, stocks, and houses to inexplicable heights. Shiller developed some of the tools that are considered vital for taking a sober look at markets. He helped create indexes for measuring real estate prices and his stock market valuation indicator, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, is seen as one of the best forecasting models for stock returns. As Shiller sees it, “big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it.” Quartz spoke with him about some of the frothiest assets today, from bitcoin to tech stocks. Quartz: What are the best examples now of irrational exuberance or speculative bubbles? Shiller: The best example right now is bitcoin. And I think that has to do with the motivating quality of the bitcoin story. And I’ve seen it in my students at Yale. You start talking about bitcoin and they’re excited! And I think, what’s so exciting? You have to think like humanities people. What is this bitcoin story? It starts with Satoshi Nakamoto—remember him? The mysterious figure who may or may not be real. He’s never been found. That has a nice mystery quality to it. And then he has this clever idea about encryption and blockchain and public ledgers, and somehow the idea is so powerful that governments can’t even stop it. You can’t regulate this. It kind of fits in with the angst of this time in history. If you look at the third edition of Irrational Exuberance, I’m arguing that there’s a fundamental deep angst of our digitization and computers, that people wonder what their place is in this new world. What’s it going to be like in 10, 20, or 30 years, and will I have a job? Will I have anything? Somehow bitcoin fits into that and it gives a sense of empowerment: I understand what’s happening! I can speculate and I can be rich from understanding this! That kind of is a solution to the fundamental angst. So I’m trying to deconstruct the bitcoin story. Big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it. People trying to looks at crpto tech / BTC as a stock or any preceding fin instrument. Wow no idea. Here a hint look at the uptake of new tech graphs......you don't see the mobile phone bubble "pop", or the connecting to the internet "pop", sure they get displaced eg VHS, CD, USB stick etc, but its not a "pop" or a bubble. Get back to me when MR. Shiller gets a grip on the byzantene generals problem and the implications of its solutions, for government and society, banks etc. Tulips could not function as government, contracts, be teleported, server as a permanent ledger etc etc etc. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: SimonJones on September 06, 2017, 02:59:01 AM We are not in a bubble - the rocket has not even launched. The crypto space is still so small that it's almost insignificant.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: btcney on September 06, 2017, 07:45:50 AM We are not in a bubble - the rocket has not even launched. The crypto space is still so small that it's almost insignificant. Long term i would definitely agree with you - bitcoin is still a relatively new project, and mass adoption is still very very far away. Long term wise we are probably not even achieving 1% of the potential that bitcoin can do to help decentralize and stabilize the world economy. But short term we haven't gained that many users but yet the prices for bitcoin has risen by 400% since the start of the year. I don't think that this is sustainable growth, and this short term bubble could pop very soon. I think that we are currently near mania, or even bull trap. Not sure where exactly though. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Bitcoinaire on September 06, 2017, 12:26:26 PM We are not in a bubble - the rocket has not even launched. The crypto space is still so small that it's almost insignificant. Long term i would definitely agree with you - bitcoin is still a relatively new project, and mass adoption is still very very far away. Long term wise we are probably not even achieving 1% of the potential that bitcoin can do to help decentralize and stabilize the world economy. But short term we haven't gained that many users but yet the prices for bitcoin has risen by 400% since the start of the year. I don't think that this is sustainable growth, and this short term bubble could pop very soon. I think that we are currently near mania, or even bull trap. Not sure where exactly though. How many user have we gained this year? Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: alyssa85 on September 06, 2017, 01:15:32 PM Regarding Bubbles, here is an interesting article: https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/ Quote Yale economics professor Robert Shiller won the Nobel prize for his work on bubbles. He wrote a seminal book on speculative manias, Irrational Exuberance, a deep analysis of the dramas over the centuries when otherwise sane people drove prices for tulips, stocks, and houses to inexplicable heights. Shiller developed some of the tools that are considered vital for taking a sober look at markets. He helped create indexes for measuring real estate prices and his stock market valuation indicator, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, is seen as one of the best forecasting models for stock returns. As Shiller sees it, “big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it.” Quartz spoke with him about some of the frothiest assets today, from bitcoin to tech stocks. Quartz: What are the best examples now of irrational exuberance or speculative bubbles? Shiller: The best example right now is bitcoin. And I think that has to do with the motivating quality of the bitcoin story. And I’ve seen it in my students at Yale. You start talking about bitcoin and they’re excited! And I think, what’s so exciting? You have to think like humanities people. What is this bitcoin story? It starts with Satoshi Nakamoto—remember him? The mysterious figure who may or may not be real. He’s never been found. That has a nice mystery quality to it. And then he has this clever idea about encryption and blockchain and public ledgers, and somehow the idea is so powerful that governments can’t even stop it. You can’t regulate this. It kind of fits in with the angst of this time in history. If you look at the third edition of Irrational Exuberance, I’m arguing that there’s a fundamental deep angst of our digitization and computers, that people wonder what their place is in this new world. What’s it going to be like in 10, 20, or 30 years, and will I have a job? Will I have anything? Somehow bitcoin fits into that and it gives a sense of empowerment: I understand what’s happening! I can speculate and I can be rich from understanding this! That kind of is a solution to the fundamental angst. So I’m trying to deconstruct the bitcoin story. Big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it. People trying to looks at crpto tech / BTC as a stock or any preceding fin instrument. Wow no idea. Here a hint look at the uptake of new tech graphs......you don't see the mobile phone bubble "pop", or the connecting to the internet "pop", sure they get displaced eg VHS, CD, USB stick etc, but its not a "pop" or a bubble. Get back to me when MR. Shiller gets a grip on the byzantene generals problem and the implications of its solutions, for government and society, banks etc. Tulips could not function as government, contracts, be teleported, server as a permanent ledger etc etc etc. The uptake of bitcoin ISN'T like mobile phones or the internet though is it. It's been stuck on about 250,000 - 300,000 transactions a day for a year. Whereas the phone adoption and internet adoption involved the number of users literally doubling every week. Bitcoin adoption got strangled a couple of years ago by the high fees. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on September 06, 2017, 10:56:25 PM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now... In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money.Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: BitHodler on September 06, 2017, 11:52:47 PM In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money. In order to really push this market forward and make current price levels look like peanuts, we have to offer institutions an easy and convenient way of entering the Bitcoin world.With more and more countries legalizing Bitcoin usage, the day institutions will start pumping hundreds of millions into Bitcoin will come closer and closer ~ proper legislation is a crucial aspect since institutions are tied to strict rules. If we at some point in the far future also get people to partially ditch gold to buy themselves into Bitcoin, we'll see price levels that in current times are nothing more than a wild fantasy. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Kriptex on September 07, 2017, 01:21:05 AM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now... In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money.Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. I don't think we're early investors but I also don't think this is not a bubble. The bitcoin exchange markets are stable at least and this makes me happy since I know bitcoin's market price won't de disrupted so much. If we're holders, we'll keep holding until our exit (sell) point. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: orions.belt19 on September 07, 2017, 02:42:09 AM We are not in a bubble - the rocket has not even launched. The crypto space is still so small that it's almost insignificant. Long term i would definitely agree with you - bitcoin is still a relatively new project, and mass adoption is still very very far away. Long term wise we are probably not even achieving 1% of the potential that bitcoin can do to help decentralize and stabilize the world economy. But short term we haven't gained that many users but yet the prices for bitcoin has risen by 400% since the start of the year. I don't think that this is sustainable growth, and this short term bubble could pop very soon. I think that we are currently near mania, or even bull trap. Not sure where exactly though. Maybe were in a mania phase, because Bitcoin and cryptocurrency has been slowly been gaining some media attention. Its been featured in social media sites and some celebrities like Mayweather has given it some notice, and I think it has brought some enthusiasm from the public. I believe that in long term, bitcoin and crypto will remain strong and that it is not a bubble. But perhaps this massive price hike will soon have an end and maybe it would stabilize. I am confident in bitcoin and there's still a long way to go for its progress. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: aeternus on September 07, 2017, 03:58:59 AM That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time. but i do not think that we are in bubble because i think that the it is the actual price of bitcoin which has more potential to increase its price. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 07, 2017, 07:00:08 AM With respect to the current situation of the bubble, I think we're either:
- in the "back to normal" (Bull trap) phase - or still within "New Paradigm" So I don't rule out totally a new successful attack on $5000. But what I'm almost sure is that in September we'll have seen the peak of the bubble. Now some comments: The uptake of bitcoin ISN'T like mobile phones or the internet though is it. It's been stuck on about 250,000 - 300,000 transactions a day for a year. Whereas the phone adoption and internet adoption involved the number of users literally doubling every week. Bitcoin adoption got strangled a couple of years ago by the high fees. Well, I agree somewhat, but this is more due to the 1 MB block size limit and not because of the fees alone. If blocks could have been larger, they probably would contain more transactions ;) The problem I see is that very few real-world services have started to accepted Bitcoin in the last 2-3 years. That basically means that Bitcoin is still in a speculative phase. And so all extreme growth is ... bubblish. And I also disagree with @jubalix in another point: "Bitcoin" is not a technology like "the Internet". "Bitcoin" is one instance of a technology called "cryptocurrency". So even if it's a "protocol", at the end it's more similar to a standard business/company, because it's so easy to create "almost-equal" protocols ("altcoins"). Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on September 10, 2017, 05:13:09 PM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now... In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money.Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. I don't think we're early investors but I also don't think this is not a bubble. The bitcoin exchange markets are stable at least and this makes me happy since I know bitcoin's market price won't de disrupted so much. If we're holders, we'll keep holding until our exit (sell) point. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: BITSPANISH on September 11, 2017, 03:19:00 PM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now... In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money.Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Reid on September 11, 2017, 03:32:05 PM 2010, 2011, 2013 (twice), now... In terms of long term investing I think we are some of the earliest investors, bitcoin has not reached anything close to mainstream adoption and I think that is going to take a lot of time, when people finally realize that bitcoin is the next big thing a tremendous amount of money is going to be invested in the market, and when that happens, we are going to take advantage of the opportunity and make a lot of money.Bitcoin is almost certainly in a bubble, a short-term one. I think we may be flirting with the Greed phase, but who knows? Long term, I'm still very bullish - we may still be at "smart money" or the "lunatic fringe" as Andreas Antonopoulos would phrase it, so eloquently the way he does. That is true. Bitcoin is so young that many are inflicting so much definition about it and also that could damage it and yet here we are. Well, because of its high value it is more targeted now with different FUD's. Now, it became normal that many users dont even care what FUD's they make. I am certain it aint a bubble and if it is, it should have popped already because of the surge. But it aint, and it is a currency. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on September 12, 2017, 12:15:51 AM I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users.
Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union. Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 12, 2017, 12:52:40 AM I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users. Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)? As I said already, I think the bubble territory started much before (at 1800-2500), but because of other reasons (too fast increase, no real world adoption that would justify that sharp increase). Quote Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago. Strange graph. Since August, if I'm in a hurry, I don't use more than 50-60 sat/B (about $0.50 for a 192-byte transaction) and it normally gets confirmed in the first block. If I'm not in a hurry 20 sat/B are more than enough. The congestion is much less than in the first six months of 2016, so I really don't know who's driving that high the average transaction fee ...https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html Segwit should drive the fees even lower. Segwit transactions are still not much used, that's why it had limited impact on block size/fees until now. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Cerbera on September 12, 2017, 12:22:05 PM Crypto is still in it's infancy. I don't think that the bubble has even started to inflate yet.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on September 12, 2017, 09:21:34 PM Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)? As I said already, I think the bubble territory started much before (at 1800-2500), but because of other reasons (too fast increase, no real world adoption that would justify that sharp increase). Sorry I don't quite understand what you're driving at. I do think the standard unit is the satoshi. Massive sell-offs can't quite seem to make the price break below $4k. That's why I think BTC will remain between $4k and $5k until something new happens. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 13, 2017, 05:03:54 PM Would you say the same if the standard unit was the satoshi (in a $5000 Bitcoin, a satoshi is worth 0.005 USD cents, or 0.00005 USD)? [...] Sorry I don't quite understand what you're driving at. I do think the standard unit is the satoshi.In my opinion, it's irrelevant if "the Bitcoin" is at $5000, $1000 or $500000. You can buy any fraction of it, because the unit "Bitcoin" is defined in a totally arbitrary way as 100000000 satoshi. That's why I don't think there is a point where a "bubble territory begins" where people would stop to buy because it's "too expensive". If there was a psychological barrier, then most likely it was at $1000 - I don't get why it should be $5000. Quote Massive sell-offs can't quite seem to make the price break below $4k. That's why I think BTC will remain between $4k and $5k until something new happens. Well, now we broke through the $4K barrier. I think bulls will try to ride the next bounce to break $4000 again, but it won't be sustainable - for a couple of days at most, and probably it won't cross $4300.Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: wurth on September 14, 2017, 10:53:49 AM That's right, we're all in a bubble, but this bubble can continue to continue if it is not punctured. In other words, if it is stable, it will last forever, but if it is affected badly, it can break down at any time. but i do not think that we are in bubble because i think that the it is the actual price of bitcoin which has more potential to increase its price. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: jerowacik on September 14, 2017, 11:21:45 AM now the prices are like waves and are under once. I was lucky enough to have sold most of the bitcoin I had at the 4200 $ price tag. see what happens today of course many people who will feel disappointed because no longer seen a positive trend that can make bitcoin prices increase. everyone is panicked when bitcoin prices continue to decline. I can not do anything right now, I just hope that bitcoin prices get back on track better than now.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 14, 2017, 02:20:26 PM Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover? I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg. However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: pisston on September 14, 2017, 07:34:48 PM Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover? I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg. However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: AjithBtc on September 14, 2017, 08:07:08 PM Do you think good news like lightning network can help Bitcoin recover? I think it can and it will ... almost for sure. The $3000-4970 bullish "leg" was very, very likely triggered by the Segwit adoption. Investors are observing the technical evolution of Bitcoin and some are deciding their investment based on good news from that "development front". So a stable LN release would almost surely be enough for a nice bullish leg. However, I think we have already entered a mid-term bear market (lower lows and lower highs for some months, at least). So if a LN release is announced in the coming months, the bullish leg would most likely make the price recover only temporarily. In contrast, if a stable (and convincing!) LN release comes out reasonable time after the November fork, e.g. in early to mid 2018, then it could be the trigger for a trend reversal to bullish terrain again. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: andrei56 on September 14, 2017, 08:57:11 PM I'm making a bold proclamation that bubble territory exists above the $5000 mark, simply because at that price level it starts to lose some of its intrinsic value as it becomes too expensive of an option for the vast majority of potential users. If you do not feel like investing then that is your right but if you think the market of cryptocurrencies is something that can have value in the future then maybe you could invest your money in some alts that you think are worth the risk, besides bitcoin is going down in price right now maybe it will get to the point where you think is a good investment again.Too expensive not only in price (regardless of the fundamentals, its a psychological turnoff for those looking to invest or purchase some for other reasons), but in transaction fees as well. For example, 250 satoshis/byte is a lot more expensive today than it was 3 months ago. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html Regardless of SegWit, the overall trend in transaction fees is upward in terms of both dollars and satoshis. At $5 per transaction or higher bitcoin frequently becomes a more expensive option than corporate services such as PayPal and Western Union. Moral of the story: I wouldn't start investing in bitcoin per se any time soon, but what do I know, I'm just a Noob. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Roccker on September 14, 2017, 09:39:37 PM I guess
We are in Bulltrap or Fear Probably Fear Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on September 28, 2017, 02:28:40 AM I would say we are now caught in a range.
On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff). On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000. On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees. For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size. Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: meshe on September 28, 2017, 02:36:45 AM I guess We are in Bulltrap or Fear Probably Fear Remember famous saying: "market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent" Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: d5000 on September 28, 2017, 02:56:53 AM Until now, I believe we are in the "second intermediate bull market" (maybe the first bullish Elliott wave) in an otherwise bearish market. This wave could take us to $4200-$4300 aproximately.
But I am beginning to believe that the market wants to retest the $5000 top. I think if $4300 are sustainably broken (this mark was reached several times in the last bounce), then we will see at least $4700 again. If we then go down (below $4000), a double top is likely, and its confirmation (<2900 prices) would also confirm the bear market. But if not, then - why not another bullish phase? Maybe the market is really believing that the Segwit2x drama simply won't happen. That would be bullish. Quote "market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent" So true!! ;DTitle: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Reid on September 28, 2017, 03:01:10 AM I would say we are now caught in a range. On one hand, you have Chinese and Wall Street sheep dumpers, fleeing the markets because of what their government or irrationally esteemed Financial Trust Fund Baby has to say. (Yes I'm talking about PSchiff). On the other hand, you have the savvy, younger generations of Big Money investors coming in, making sure the price is incapable of dipping bellow $3000. On the third hand, you have the possibility that if the price of BTC gets too high, it may be a turn-off for many actual users who now can no longer afford to use bitcoin or pay its increasingly exorbitant trading fees. For the well-to-do and those only interested in investing BTC, who saw "faw" in the face of flying transaction fees, well, they are the ones with the power to keep the bubble increasing in size. Only time will tell if its lucrative enough for them to do so. I agree with the third one. It looks like only us who are already invested or owns bitcoin will be the one to nurture it if in case no one can afford it anymore. What might happen after this? No one will buy and all will just be selling. There will be no demands anymore until the price of bitcoin reaches a low one that can be afford again. It is not a bubble but more like pricing problem. It will not be a currency anymore. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: arbitrage001 on November 29, 2017, 07:56:12 AM Think we may have hit the greed phase if not delusion phase.
Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: NUFCrichard on November 29, 2017, 08:47:32 AM I am very intrigued by the Bittrex/Tether stuff that is going on at the moment.
They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before. I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: Denker on November 29, 2017, 10:00:16 AM I am very intrigued by the Bittrex/Tether stuff that is going on at the moment. They printed $95mil in the last week, that is enough to move the market and if we look at Gox in 2013, we know that it has already happened before. I agree with another post I read though, when (not if) tether goes down, then money will quickly flow into Bitcoin causing a big spike in the price. That will be the top of the bubble. Right now it seems like to the most elastic bubble ever, it keeps on inflating, but has no downwards pressure! I wonder how much is due to tether. Yes the Tether situation is something I guess many have in their minds at the moment. When this thing implodes Bitcoin could spike up extremely and cashing out could be really difficult. Alts will get dumped for Bitcoin and many people will run to the crypto/fiat exchanges. And will these exchanges be able to handle all that traffic and withdrawls then? I highly doubt it. Title: Re: So where exactly are we in the bubble? Post by: CoinClarity on November 30, 2017, 07:10:29 AM So where are we in the bubble now? Lol. Until its evidently clear that supply exceeds demand, then investors will start to reel in a bit, but that doesn't mean the crash has to be of the same magnitude of the dotcom bubble or anything.
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