|
Title: - Post by: iceice on May 18, 2013, 01:08:28 AM -
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: GRILLMASTER on May 18, 2013, 01:54:48 AM You should checkout the #bitcoin-analysis chat on freenode
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: bitcoinomics on May 18, 2013, 04:16:15 AM Where's the actual analysis?
??? Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: Mac21 on May 18, 2013, 04:48:19 AM thats if you assume bitcoin will go down
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: bitcoinomics on May 18, 2013, 07:02:31 AM thats if you assume bitcoin will go down made me lol :D Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: niothor on May 18, 2013, 08:54:06 AM here's my ew analysis of btc. please post your chart or comment. thank you https://i.minus.com/iiFl0uwaWvcOr.png This is what you think it will happen? Or what you WANT to happen ? :) Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: gmg on May 19, 2013, 11:11:05 AM zooming in on wave A shows it's a diagonal triangle type 2 since this is wave A. notice how wave 4 and 1 overlap diagonal is not a 5th wave or a C wave so no violent change in direction https://i.minus.com/iGmg6UyAX51m3.png if someone knows where wave B maximum retracement level after such diagonal triangle forms please post. i assume B wave retraces similar to a zigzag = 61.8% maximum It cannot be a diagonal: these occur at the END of a trend, not as first waves! Plus, wave 3 seems go bottom lower than wave 5! Having said that, you OP analysis looks plausible. It's just that A is more probably an a-b-c wave than an impulse. Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: gmg on May 19, 2013, 11:24:27 AM wow are you seriously looking at charts... do you know TA is useless and will lose you money 50 the time.. so useless. As any seasoned investor knows, it doesn't matter what percentage of time you lose money. It's all about how much you make or lose in each trade. I've been using EWA for years and I can confirm that you're right: about 50% of my trades have been unsuccessful. But if I lose a dollar 50% of the time and I make three in the other 50%, I'm much better off in the end, thank you! But, seriously now, if you're not interested in 'seriously looking at charts', why are you reading this thread? :D Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: Instacoins on May 22, 2013, 09:51:36 PM Nice posts man. I have been studying trading for hmm, about 6 months now! Do you find Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonnaci Retracements to offer insight? I haven't invested the time into becoming an expert on either of them, although I'm quite familiar with the concepts.
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: MoreFun on May 22, 2013, 10:07:19 PM thats if you assume bitcoin will go down Just mirror it if you assume it will go up ;DTitle: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: MeshachBlue on May 22, 2013, 10:35:09 PM Elliott wave analysis assumes big companies are investing... etc. etc.
Lots of assumptions in elliott wave analysis that I don't think applies to bitcoin....... Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: zeroblock on May 22, 2013, 10:40:09 PM It's all regression analysis projected into the future via stochastic modelling, elliot waves, etc.
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: tols on May 22, 2013, 11:10:37 PM And if I draw a giant bold line with a sharp angle in it over here.....
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: drwho88888 on May 23, 2013, 10:47:16 AM Technical Analysis is like faith and based more on wishful thinking rather than any facts.
Always works in backtesting but can't be walked forward with anything other than hope. Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: gmg on May 23, 2013, 09:12:00 PM iceice, just a word of caution: every time I found myself counting multiple 1s and 2s, waiting for a third of a third of a third, I ended up realising my count was wrong... I don't say this is the case here, because I haven't done the measurements, just sharing my (painful) experience!
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: Instacoins on May 25, 2013, 04:44:45 PM Ice, you ever heard of Turtle Trading? ;D That's my personal fav strategy at this moment
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: gmg on May 25, 2013, 08:53:05 PM iceice, your 1 and 2 seem to be way out of proportion, time-wise, with the (developing) 3. Maybe 1 is where you put your i? Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: cp1 on May 25, 2013, 09:08:43 PM what does it look like when you break egg shells or drop some bones over the chart?
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: TheGovernedSelf on May 25, 2013, 09:41:17 PM Where does the C come from? Any reasoning?
Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: Instacoins on May 26, 2013, 05:56:07 PM Ice, you ever heard of Turtle Trading? ;D That's my personal fav strategy at this moment i havent heard of it. if you have time please explain it. thanksSure, what I'll do is upload a good lecture of it onto YouTube and send you the unlisted link. There used to be a good account 'FooledByRandomness' up on YouTube, but it was removed! Thankfully I downloaded the most pertinent lecture that has helped me personally the most. I'll send it your way today and you can tell me what you think. Title: Re: elliott wave analysis Post by: bitzillions on May 31, 2013, 12:51:51 AM While EW is intriguing, I've ALWAYS found it to be the case where the interpretation is "It's either x and it's about to go UP or its really Y and its about to go down". Seems like more of a tool for either justifying one's opinion / theory on direction, or to try to explain what's already occurred.
|
