Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Peteroman on August 16, 2017, 11:13:03 PM



Title: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 16, 2017, 11:13:03 PM

https://youtu.be/c_PBwQpCoJU



Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: LavaJack on August 17, 2017, 04:46:34 AM
This kid is pretty intelligent. Finally someone is denouncing the general conception of market movements based solely on price.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Wind_FURY on August 17, 2017, 05:51:47 AM

https://youtu.be/c_PBwQpCoJU



Thanks for posting. I would assume the same concept applies to BitcoinCash also. So maybe the best way to determine if BCC's price will increase is also to wait for an increase in the hash rate.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-hashrate.html


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: LaFerrari on August 17, 2017, 06:06:46 AM
Sharing this video with a few people who has no idea how the difficulty and rewards to miners work


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: snowdropfore on August 17, 2017, 07:54:11 AM
 hope you are right ,i can not wait  ,when $100k ,i will be rich


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Denker on August 17, 2017, 09:12:56 AM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty. But that is completely wrong.
Hasrate follows price!!
If price goes down significantly over longer period of time, miners will shut down some of their mining hardware, therefore hashrate decreases and difficulty goes down.
If price later goes up again, miners will switch on these mining hardware again cause it's getting more profitable again, therefore hasrate increases and difficulty goes up. This is Bitcoin mining 101!


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: matuson on August 17, 2017, 09:39:46 AM
Not everything in our life follows mathematical formulas. Mathematics is based on permanent values. Everything in life depends on the case or the situation. Most of the supporters of bitcoin are market conditions and the appearance of any other currency that is more promising betray bitcoin and he will die.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 02:19:04 PM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty...


Yes, in other words: miners decide the price.

This kid is pretty intelligent..

thank you to the positivity

Not everything in our life follows mathematical formulas..

Not everything, yes; minor fluctuations in short term Bitcoin market price being a prime example.

hope you are right ,i can not wait  ,when $100k ,i will be rich

I am right.

Sharing this video with a few people who has no idea how the difficulty and rewards to miners work

Thank you, I hope they enjoy it.


 I would assume the same concept applies to BitcoinCash

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin%20cash-hashrate.html

Probably.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: BillyBobZorton on August 17, 2017, 06:18:47 PM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty. But that is completely wrong.
Hasrate follows price!!
If price goes down significantly over longer period of time, miners will shut down some of their mining hardware, therefore hashrate decreases and difficulty goes down.
If price later goes up again, miners will switch on these mining hardware again cause it's getting more profitable again, therefore hasrate increases and difficulty goes up. This is Bitcoin mining 101!



Good point. Hashrate must follow the price. This is why the miners don't decide the fork, the market ultimately decides the fork. The miners would need to have 100% hashrate while the other chain has 0% hashrate so the market would be frozen, but that never happens, on every split there's always some hashrate on the other end to set a market.

This is why segwit2x will fall again, just like BCash.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 06:28:26 PM

Good point. Hashrate must follow the price.

Bitcoin launched at $0.

According to that logic, the difficulty would never increase, because for the difficulty to rise: Bitcoin would first have to be worth something!




Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: GanjaFarmer23 on August 17, 2017, 08:00:45 PM
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdump.bitcheese.net%2Fimages%2Faxidido%2Fbitcoin-self-cost-logscale-edited.png&t=579&c=dHbFEFVa0F5G8Q

From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=550349.40

Difficulty is clearly lagging price. You really only need logic to tell you that.



Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 08:04:26 PM
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdump.bitcheese.net%2Fimages%2Faxidido%2Fbitcoin-self-cost-logscale-edited.png&t=579&c=dHbFEFVa0F5G8Q

From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=550349.40

Difficulty is clearly lagging price. You really only need logic to tell you that.



In the beginning of Bitcoin, did difficulty rise first or did price? The answer is difficulty.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: GanjaFarmer23 on August 17, 2017, 08:27:54 PM
https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdump.bitcheese.net%2Fimages%2Faxidido%2Fbitcoin-self-cost-logscale-edited.png&t=579&c=dHbFEFVa0F5G8Q

From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=550349.40

Difficulty is clearly lagging price. You really only need logic to tell you that.



In the beginning of Bitcoin, did difficulty come first or did price? The answer is difficulty started going up before Bitcoin was even worth anything, therefore price follows difficulty.

That's not even an argument. You could ask yourself if you think early miners mined for profit. Obviously there was no economic incentives involved until bitcoin had a price.

Anyways, no need to disprove anything, some guy already did it: http://divananalit.org/

Data is clearly showing the opposite of what you claim.





Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 08:48:34 PM


That's not even an argument. You could ask yourself if you think early miners mined for profit. Obviously there was no economic incentives involved until bitcoin had a price.

Anyways, no need to disprove anything, some guy already did it: http://divananalit.org/

Data is clearly showing the opposite of what you claim.



divananalit.org (http://divananalit.org) says Mining cost ... depends ... only on: ... difficulty.
... to show you a funny dependence: bitcoin price usually doesn't come lower than mining cost.


Mining cost depends on difficulty, price doesn't come lower than cost, therefore price doesn't come lower than difficulty.



blockchain.info (http://blockchain.info) zoom in on when difficulty first rose compared to when price first rose.


Difficulty     1 to 1.180    on 12/30/2009
Price           0 to $0.07    on 8/17/2010


Unless you're a bank; creating money out of thin air, work always comes before a price is assigned to said work.

That's why employers pay you after working 40 hours, unless you're Drake and get an advance, in which case you'd already proven that you're worth something.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: freebutcaged on August 17, 2017, 08:58:41 PM
Bitcoin is like fire but a gigantic one which is impossible to put it out, and as the hash rate increases it will become unstoppable for eternity mate.

Bitcoin is the original decentralized digital currency, think of it like google, even if google goes down and no one ever use it anymore, we'll always

Use the term "google it" no matter what. when someone notices Bitcoin and tries to mine it, they will understand why the price is high and they will

Pay for it instead of mining. I'm doing the same though I only tried cloud mining and got disappointed and decided to buy small amounts every few

Weeks to  accumulate. with the current state of banking system I see more reasons for people to use decentralized currencies and Bitcoin being on

Top, we will only see rise and rise of both price and difficulty.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 09:00:08 PM
when someone notices Bitcoin and tries to mine it, they will understand why the price is high and they will

Pay for it instead of mining.

i saw bitcoin and decided to mine it.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Zicadis on August 17, 2017, 09:11:19 PM
So basically Peter from the vlog was saying listening to GOLDMAN SACHS holds no water because these guys apparently are bankers with a centralized mindset when bitcoin is the exact opposite.
Is it possible that the price can increase if difficulty increases and demand stays constant??
Next stop $24k


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 09:13:53 PM

Is it possible that the price can increase if difficulty increases and demand stays constant??


Yes.

As difficulty increases, miners mine less Bitcoin.

To make up for the decrease in Bitcoin income, miners sell their Bitcoin at a higher price.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: BitcoinBarrel on August 17, 2017, 11:48:05 PM
Very good explanation, you need a better video intro though  :)


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 17, 2017, 11:49:29 PM
Very good explanation, you need a better video intro though  :)

Thank you 😊


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Wind_FURY on August 18, 2017, 04:03:57 AM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty. But that is completely wrong.
Hasrate follows price!!
If price goes down significantly over longer period of time, miners will shut down some of their mining hardware, therefore hashrate decreases and difficulty goes down.
If price later goes up again, miners will switch on these mining hardware again cause it's getting more profitable again, therefore hasrate increases and difficulty goes up. This is Bitcoin mining 101!


Then this is really good news for BitcoinCash miners and investors. It is now being pumped and might be over $500 per BCC this weekend.

If some hash power transfers to BitcoinCash, will that make the price of Bitcoin decrease? I believe it will take a longer time for the difficulty to adjust in BTC.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 18, 2017, 09:07:38 AM

If some hash power transfers to BitcoinCash, will that make the price of Bitcoin decrease?

History says Bitcoin hashrate doesn't decrease and therefore price won't drop significantly


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Denker on August 18, 2017, 11:46:54 AM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty...


Yes, in other words: miners decide the price.


Again this is wrong. Miners don't make the price!
I'd guess you're the noob who made this video right?!
Miners have no influence of what the price of Bitcoin will be, except dumping the coins to the market they hold.
It's not the miners who give Bitcoin it's value. They are just 1 part of several more with much more significance!


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 18, 2017, 02:59:06 PM


Again this is wrong. Miners don't make the price!
I'd guess you're the noob who made this video right?!
Miners have no influence of what the price of Bitcoin will be, except dumping the coins to the market they hold.
It's not the miners who give Bitcoin it's value. They are just 1 part of several more with much more significance!

Miners decide the price meaning: they sell their coins at a price higher than it cost to mine them.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Wind_FURY on August 20, 2017, 03:24:03 AM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty...


Yes, in other words: miners decide the price.


Again this is wrong. Miners don't make the price!
I'd guess you're the noob who made this video right?!
Miners have no influence of what the price of Bitcoin will be, except dumping the coins to the market they hold.
It's not the miners who give Bitcoin it's value. They are just 1 part of several more with much more significance!

So are you saying that the effect of losing the miners to BitcoinCash will not have a significant price decrease? I believe it will because if let us say 30% in Bitcoin's hash power suddenly is gone, the difficulty will take some time to adjust and it will make the network slow and confirmations will take a lot longer.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: snowdropfore on August 20, 2017, 07:45:15 AM
math  do not lie ,and i think the price of bitcoin will be 100000$,it is a matter of time .


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Opekin on August 20, 2017, 08:54:51 AM

https://youtu.be/c_PBwQpCoJU


Good video and nice prediction.
I've done also some of my predictioni compute by months and years and i have some good predictions that is near from the actual value but i much thinking for the overall yearly progress .Example of 100k usd i assume that it will be happen 3 3years from now.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 20, 2017, 04:36:03 PM

https://youtu.be/c_PBwQpCoJU


Good video and nice prediction.


thank you.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: JimboToronto on August 20, 2017, 05:39:54 PM

Good point. Hashrate must follow the price.

Bitcoin launched at $0.

According to that logic, the difficulty would never increase, because for the difficulty to rise: Bitcoin would first have to be worth something!




I don't think it's black or white. The price is determined by both the production cost and speculation.

For the first year Bitcoin was mined strictly as an academic exercise and speculation.

It wasn't until May 22, 2010 that it actually became worth something when a $20 pair of pizzas was sold for 10,000 bitcoins.

That was when Bitcoin was really launched with a value of $0.002 per coin.

There's no denying that price and difficulty are now closely correlated. The question is which is the chicken and which is the egg.


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: buwaytress on August 20, 2017, 07:55:32 PM
He is always saying price has to follow hashrate/difficulty. But that is completely wrong.
Hasrate follows price!!
If price goes down significantly over longer period of time, miners will shut down some of their mining hardware, therefore hashrate decreases and difficulty goes down.
If price later goes up again, miners will switch on these mining hardware again cause it's getting more profitable again, therefore hasrate increases and difficulty goes up. This is Bitcoin mining 101!


It's not completely wrong, but it is an extremely simplistic view of how connected the two are and the correlation runs further askew as you apply this to other cryptos. You only have to look at the first post $1000 Bitcoin ATH to see that hashrate continued its trajectory despite taking two years to retest the old ATH. Even Bitcoin's struggles past sub-500 prices didn't do much to deter this. I definitely feel that miners will continue to bear upward pressure on price and this will only get stronger as we progress towards 21 million coins but the bulk of miners still have sufficient profit margins to keep on hashing. In fact, even when block rewards diminish and fees become the majority of income, it only makes sense that price has to keep up with expenses.



Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Cranidos on August 20, 2017, 09:08:52 PM
As far as I know, Bitcoin's price is being dictated by the demand and supply in the market. So if some are indicating that the hashrate is relevant to the increase (or decrease?) of Bitcoin's price or the price change is based on the hashrate, then the miners are the one who dictates the price? Bitcoin is decentralized and I am sticking to the concept of the law of demand and supply. Please enlighten us, is it hashrate that states the price change or the demand and supply is?


Title: Re: $100K Bitcoin Prediction Using Math.
Post by: Peteroman on August 20, 2017, 11:27:53 PM
Please enlighten us

Keep an eye on https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
When difficulty rises in 2 days: lmk if you notice any price difference.