Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin has been the top-performing currency in the world in six of the past seven years, climbing from zero to a value of about $1,190.
But the cryptocurrency isn't anywhere close to its potential, according to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat , and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

Their argument is based on increased interest in bitcoin, thanks to:

Bitcoin-based remittances

Remittance transfers, or electronic money transfers to foreign countries, have almost doubled over the past 15 years to 0.76% of GDP, data from The World Bank shows.

"Expats sending money home have found in Bitcoin an inexpensive alternative, and we assume that the percentage of Bitcoin-based remittances will sharply increase with greater Bitcoin awareness," the two say.

Uncertainty

Liew and Smith said increased political uncertainty in the UK, US and in developing nations would help elevate the level of interest in bitcoin.

"We believe Bitcoin awareness, high liquidity, ease of transport and continued market outperformance as geopolitical risks mount, will make Bitcoin a strong contender for investment at a consumer and investor level," the two said.

Mobile penetration

Liew and Smith believe the percentage of non-cash transactions will climb from 15% to 30% in the next 10 years as the world becomes more connected through smartphones. There's only a 63% global smartphone penetration and the total number of smartphone users is expected to soar by 1 billion by 2020. GSMA, a trade body that represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, believes 90% of these users will come from developing countries.

This will make it possible for nearly everyone to have a bank in their pocket, and that should provide a boost for bitcoin as well. Liew and Smith say bitcoin could account for 50% of all of these transactions.

Here are the basic model drivers that Liew and Smith used:

A bitcoin price of $1,000 in 2017.
That network users will grow 61x from now until 2030. "Put another way, we need a population of bitcoin users around a quarter of the Chinese population (or 5% of the global population) in 2030 to see bitcoin at $500k," Liew and Smith told Business Insider. Bitcoin's user network grew from 120,000 users in 2013 to 6.5 million users in 2017, or about 54x, and this could be just the beginning. Growth of that magnitude would produce 400 million users in 2030.
The average value of bitcoin held per user hits $25,000. " As institutional investor cash in Bitcoin, sophisticated investors trading Bitcoin, and Bitcoin-based ETFs proliferate, we think the average Bitcoin value held will increase to around $25k per Bitcoin holder," Liew and Smith said. Currently, with a market cap of $16.4 billion, and 6.5 million user count, the average user holds $2,515 worth of bitcoin.
Bitcoin's 2030 market cap is decided by number of bitcoin holders multiplied by average bitcoin value held.
Bitcoin's 2030 supply will be about 20 million.
Bitcoin's 2030 price and user count total $500,000 and 400 million, respectively. The price is found by taking the $10 trillion market cap and dividing it by the fixed supply of 20 million bitcoin.
It's important to note that a lot could go wrong, too. News surrounding bitcoin has been rather negative as of a late.

China, which is responsible for nearly 100% of trading in bitcoin, has been cracking down on trading. The three biggest exchanges recently announced a 0.2% fee on all transactions, in addition to blocking withdrawals from trading accounts.

Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected two bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and will make a ruling on another one in the future. It's not expected to be approved. However, Smith thinks bitcoin is still in its early stages.

"The SEC's ruling wasn't a surprise to us," he told Business Insider. "We know that getting this sort of approval is going to take (a potentially long) time," Smith said. "In the meantime, bitcoin is already simple to buy and hold a nd, as the asset continues to mature, we'll continue to see an increase in the development and deployment of surrounding products."

Bitcoin
And while bitcoin hasn't been granted regulatory approval here in the US, it is catching on elsewhere. On April 1, the cryptocurrency became a legal payment method in Japan .

Another threat to the future of the cryptocurrency is that developers are threatening to set up a " hard fork ," or alternative marketplace for bitcoin. This would result in the split of bitcoin into b itcoin and bitcoin unlimited. However, Smith says not to worry.

" Bitcoin has strong economic incentives to prevent this," he said. "If the last two years of healthy contention and debate lead to a conclusion, it's that Bitcoin is incredibly resilient and stable. In fact, the bitcoin Blockchain has operated for 7+ years with no downtime, a feat no other back-end system operating at this scale can claim."

Anyone interested in bitcoin should also know that the cryptocurrency sees violent price swings that are uncommon among the more traditional currencies. Bitcoin rallied 20% in the first week of 2017 before crashing 35% on word China was cracking down on trading.

The crypto- ;Dcurrency has regained those losses, and trades up about 25% so far this year.

http://www.businessinsider.in/The-first-investor-in-Snapchat-thinks-bitcoin-could-realistically-be-worth-500000-by-2030/articleshow/58080265.cms (http://www.businessinsider.in/The-first-investor-in-Snapchat-thinks-bitcoin-could-realistically-be-worth-500000-by-2030/articleshow/58080265.cms)

http://F:\Aug 17\Bitcpoin.png

Looking at the trend for the past few weeks do you think it could realistically go from $4400 to $500K?? That's just obnoxious ??? ??? ???

Well OP! Don't mind me but can you be a little bit more precise in your comment. It took me some time to read it and really I felt dizzy at the end.
If such great businessmen have passed certain statements about BTCs then a humble guy like me does not need to speak much. Still, let me, BTCs can be 500k dollars and it's just a matter of time. If we talk about threats, in tech world, every invention faces such troubles.

That's too much. If that's the worth then probably people are having hard time to sell and if somebody to buy for that amount too. It would be hard for people to make that worth and could it be possibly increasing still? Because 500 thousand dollars is really big to buy if the person mostly depend on twitter or trading site. Of course it will give impact to them not just because of the amount but also the status that they are facing in the economy better if they also have other sources like own business or a job. Lucky if the investor has enough amount or has already have wealth since from the start.

Oh I love what insights you are going to prove here mate, but if that's possible to be reached that price capacity I wouldn't wonder sudden bitcoin massive dumping will eventually occur, price might be decreasing very fast due to higher value. Many holders might sell their assets because long term holder can achieve profitable price so they wanted nice and sustainable profit, which can make them millionaire in the future when it became realistically at that price in the history of bitcoin.

$500,000 is very strange to the market. For this to happen, we should have a serious economic crysis that will make the governments and banking system fail.

Onlt this can make bitcoin $500,000 in a blink of an eye.

totally agree with you. The invention must face the difficulties.
if it happens Bitcoin will be difficult to maintain security, hackers will find it

When something increases in value, automatically the concern regarding its security will be a big factor. To overcome these major issues the technology or the innovation is expected to face lots of difficulties in different form starting from government pressure. In reality the growth it has attained at present has given the hope of reaching such a value, but not sure of the lasting.

500 000 $ - one number is too large. I have not thought about it

That's not too much to say, even though it was early to say it does not mean it doesn't have any possibility, bitcoin has been unstoppable since it was created, having a massive improvement with such small fundamental was really something, we cannot expect it this year or the year after but in the future we might see a $500,000 per Bitcoin.

Even the bitcoin price didn't reached $5000 and what about $10000,$50000 or even $100000 for a single bitcoin in my wallet? It doesn't make sense. That might no be happened because the fiat should got the big inflation for that.

to be honest i couldn't really agree with your reasoning here and i think you are over-explaining it but i can agree with what you are saying here. bitcoin price could realistically be a lot more than this and $500k can just be a start. the thing about bitcoin is that it can be used to 8 decimal places.
this fact has been forgotten because price has been low but at code level it was designed like this. so in other words current price of 1 satoshi is $0.0000425 which is ridiculously low. at $500k, 1 satoshi will be $0.005 which is still small.

i think it's not realistic to see Bitcoin at that price to be honest,
but i hope everything is possible because we're in cryptoland not in reality,of course if we hit that level we should be happy right ?
the reason why i said it's unrealistic because right now how many people own more than 1% from Bitcoin total supply ?
we can see it if the distribution distributed to everybody fairly,but right now some peoples/groups own more than that.
which mean they can control the market,and $500.000 is not a small money and need a lot of factor to determine it.
what will happen with our economy if 1BTC worth $500.000 ?
at most we will see it around $100.000 or even lower than that,and if that time comes we should value it based on satoshi or mbtc istead of BTC directly

If BTC will reach 500k USD, what will be USD worth then?
I guess of countries and financial authorities will start to accept BTC as a payment tool and will recognize it as a viable currency on legislative than highly increased demand can skyrocket the price.. but 500k USD.. i doubt so.

bitcoin does have the possibility to show unlimited prices. there is no current bitcoin price constraint. so anything could happen including an increase in bitcoin prices up to 500,000 USD. but realistically I may feel this must go through a very long time. currently the bitcoin price is in the range of 4,000USD and it will seem that it takes a lot of things to get beyond that.

Theoretical projections from recent charts show that it is possible to attain $500,000 even with setbacks and whatnot, but the market is so unpredictable that even the most plausible scenarios tend to get broken over time. $500,000 is a big sum per coin, and for us to hit that, we would need to amass $8.298 trillion which is no joke. It could happen if hyperinflation kicks in rapidly (highly unlikely) or everyone in the world goes crazy over bitcoin.

It has been performing well since it started, it has it's ups and downs, but that happens in every other currency. Reaching $500,000 for me is unrealistic now because for that BTC has to see a lot of apreciation in its market value than dollar, and only if dollar flunks BTC can reach this high!

I ve been reading that kind of estimates whan btc first time passed 1000$
If dollar will crash than sure btc can achieve that price but if usa dollar will be like zimbabwe dollar than t will be catastrophe for all world

I think what many don't realize is the growth after we get to 10k (and I guess we all agree we'll get there, eventually).
Right now, say at 3500, a 1% raise meant 35$

Now, let's assume we get to 10000 - every 1% growth is 100 - so a simple 10% growth (which is something quite normal for BC) would mean a 1k growth.
It will increase exponentially so...

Either the growth will decrease, giving us growths of 0.<n> or, I think more possible, when BC will get to 10k people from all over the place will jump on it, giving us even bigger growths.
So, what I am trying to say is that to get from 10k to 100k is much less trouble than getting from 1$ to 100$

That doesn't mean the thing won't blow up before, but if it really becomes that popular and steal gold market (which is really horrible to keep and sell)... I don't see any reason why it wouldn't reach 500k

realistically in theory, yes, everything is possible but in practice.... not very much. Realistically we can also line on mars but that's not happening any time soon, yes? but this just as a vague statement is true, tho I don't think we'll live to see it.

This is same of what I'm saying - USD worth and demand. My doubt is, and I guess that I am not mistaken, that it is not possible in close future (up to 10 years from now).
There are no forecasts now that shows crash of US economy in foreseeable future.

But honestly, I would like to see BTCUSD=500,000.00, of course considering current USD position in worlds economy :)

frankly I do not believe that it is possible, if they even told me that in 2030 bitcoin will be worth $60.000 I would accept, but $500.000 is a lot


we are still in the $4000 and already are making calculations of $10.000

and just to add, a few weeks ago there were many analysts who made many predictions that by the end of the year bitcoin would be worth $7000 and to what it seems until the end of the year we will be in the $5000 maximum

21,000,000 bitcoins
500,000 each

Market cap over 1 trillion.

Possible but a waste of time think about it.   I would be satisfied if I could by a cup of coffee with bitcoin at all my local stops in 2018.

How about selling stocks in my Vanguard brokerage account and parking my money in bitcoin instead of the GBTC bitcoin trust ETF or US dollars.

This stuff has a long way to go before it replaces the US dollar which is worth more thought then wondering if each bit coin will go to 1 million US dollars each.

Liew and Smith base all their assumptions on BTC beeing number one cryptocurrency forever.


Yes, but they forget it was the only currency for the first few years. It's not hard being top performing if you're the only one.


I think they assume wrong. Bitcoin was inexpensive alternative to fiat transfers. Now there are other cryptos out there, that are cheaper, faster and technically superior alternative to BTC. Take for example Monero, Zcash, ZEN, DASH, just to name a few. They're all faster and cheaper than BTC and also offer annonimity. They lack the wide adoption BTC has, but as more and more people join the cryptospace and learn about other, more convenient technologies than BTC, BTC will be loosing it's dominance, And I'm sure even more advanced cryptos will come out in the future.


It will help to increase interest in all cryptocurrencies not just BTC.


Yes those people from developing countries will use their phones for crypto transactions. But there will be many more suitable currencies to make the transfers than BTC. Take a look at OMG for example.


Those are calculations based on assumption BTC will remain the only widely adopted cryptocurrency by 2030. I already explained above, why I think that won't happen.
Let's imagine BTC would continue to represent about 50% of total market cap in 2030. And let's ignore the small inflation because of newly mined coins by that time and make calculation based on the current number of coins 16,596,450. 16,596,450 * 500,000$ = 8,298,225,000,000$ total bitcoin marketcap. People like to compare BTC to gold. The total value of all the mined gold is about 7.680.000.000.000$. So BTC would be worth even more than gold. Gold is so valuable because it's rare, limited and durable. So is BTC. So that makes both good holders of value. And BTC at a few 100K $ might make sense, but the fact is almost any cyptocurrency can be good holder of value. Why would BTC be the only one people would use to store value? Just because it was the first? Wouldn't people rather choose another cryptocurrency that's cheaper and faster to move and anonymous so noone could ever know that you own it? I certainly would.

I dont agree that the price of bitcoin will reach 500,000 dollars in the future . Because even you wait more few years or even century bitcoin will not totally reach  that because that amount is very high . And even everything is possible to happen I think it will not happen if the price that you say. Maybe the price 50k dollars it will happen . But for me the highest price is 30k dollars only.

Yes it is more unrealistic, first we have to cross the four digit value then five and six. Bitcoin has the potential to grow high with the growing user base and adoption. So when people from every countries join this platform we can expect this sum.

Could someone explain why so many forum members think newcomers to crypto space will continue to adopt bitcoin as number one currency forever? Becuase I really doubt it.

Omg bitcoib price will not increase 500k dollars even the year of 2030, because if that happen for sure those people have thousands of bitcoin are richer than bill gates and thats very impossible . Even you wait few decades it will not happen. Maybe the price is 50k dollars is possible but it depends on the demand on the market if they have many buyer for sure the price will increase and I hope that happen.

We can't say it now, maybe not in 2030 but in 2050 or whatever date it is, though it's such a big amount, we might not experience it, but maybe the next generation or the others will meet that price. 

Bitcoin cannot reach a price like this (unless US dollar crashes). The problem is that Bitcoin would be a global currency at that point. It cannot become a global currency because it is too volatile, and in order to reach that market cap it needs to be volatile. It's a self-defeating goal.

I expect a $ 500,000 price to happen, but we need something special and extraordinary for example all official states legalize bitcoin for payment systems and trade transactions.

In theory itself just seem not possible seeing the condition of bitcoin right now that struggling to face the scalability issue, the fees itself required by bitcoin in every transaction right now is 0.00027, looks small for now but imagine when the price hitting $500,000, 0.000027 will equal to 13.5$ which is, pretty expensive for sending a transaction, and by that, bitcoin will no more become currency but savings.

This is bullshit. Even if you copied from source you should know is false. Yes there used to be high volume on Chinese exchanges simply because fees were none and that trading gave traders profit. If there would be no fees on all exchanges we would see 90% volume increase everywhere just because bots would trade more since would be more profit for them.

Claiming China is responsible for nearly 100% of trading in bitcoin means that soon will be almost no trading in bitcoin anymore. LOL

Perfect after the ban of bitcoin exchanges in China now and there should be some critical information like expecting new altcoin Bitcoin gold with the hard fork in the market.We need to check the other countries investments in bitcoin. if we completely understand that first we won't worry about the China's banning on bitcoin.

Actually,bitcoin is not banned in China.Due to fear of the bitcoin will replace their own currency,china start to reduce the bitcoin usage by reducing the Trading and all.But one fact is ,China place a first place in investing in bitcoin as compared to any other country in the World.So it's not possible to Ban bitcoin in China.