Bitcoin Forum

Robert Shiller wrote the book on bubbles. He says “the best example right now is bitcoin.”

Yale economics professor Robert Shiller won the Nobel prize for his work on bubbles. He wrote a seminal book on speculative manias, Irrational Exuberance, a deep analysis of the dramas over the centuries when otherwise sane people drove prices for tulips, stocks, and houses to inexplicable heights.

Article link: https://qz.com/1067557/robert-shiller-wrote-the-book-on-bubbles-he-says-the-best-example-right-now-is-bitcoin/

What's your opinion on his view?

Finding bubbles right now is like shooting fish in a barrel. They are everywhere, stocks, bonds, real estate, the list goes on.  There is no value in being able to spot a bubble, anyone can do that, the value is in being able to precisely pinpoint the moment the bubble is about to burst.
So yes, there is no doubt that Bitcoin and cryptos generally are in a bubble but it could continue to expand many times larger than it is at present.

I read this article and he never really said why bitcoin is really a bubble!
All he said that inception of bitcoin is a very good story which gives a sense of empowerment to the people who want to believe in something other that old system.
Robert Schiller claims that bitcoin is nothing more that solution to the fundamental angst of our generation, something that will be in fashion for few years and then it will disappear.
I don't exactly share this opinion, but well, he is a notable figure so maybe in 10 years there won't be bitcoin anymore and people move on to another hot topic?

The dollar is not a bubble? It has long been worthless. His power is only in the trust of the people and that a lot of official reserves invested in dollars. Everyone is afraid to be bankrupt. If people believe in bitcoin it will be the same currency not only with public administration.

I believe his opinion is real. Humans do not change their essential behaviour, so Bitcoins will become a bubble, one of many we had all the centuries before. I cannot say when it comes, and not how high it goes, but it will come.

Nevertheless cryptocurrencies are a real innovation, so some will survive, even after the final crash after the last bubble.

Maybe not just like that simple.
You talk about bubbles that already did happened. What about ones that are going to happen?
They are not so known when, how much and why before its done.

Exactly. My guess is that in that article it was assumed that the readers have already read his book so they're familiar with the assumptions. Bitcoin have the potential to be essentially different from anything else before it in financial domain. It is interesting to see how people are trying to put it into the familiar molds.

Goldman Sachs and other analysts predicted bitcoin would reach $3,900. That turned out to be accurate. The question is why? Was there a coordinated effort to raise the price of bitcoin to make goldman sachs prediction come true?

I'll be interested to see what their next call is. If there's a unified front of analysts and predictions, that's something that could require explaining. I get the impression many "bitcoin is a bubble" predictions are being made by people who know less about crypto than I do about brain surgery(I know absolutely nothing about brain surgery btw).

I would like to see someone interview Robert Schiller and others who claim bitcoin is a bubble. It would be interesting to see if Schiller could answer basic questions about bitcoin to see if they have good comprehension on the subject.

I find it hard to believe that the big traditional players will just watch while BTC growth beats anything in traditional investments by tenfold at least and not try to take a piece of the cake. They have the means to influence the market so it could be true. But if that is true, then the main question is - what is their final goal?

Profit?

"There's no free lunch!"

And Goldman Sucks paying customers are preparing to have this greedy community for breakfest.

Not necessary. If they perceive BTC as threat, their goal would be to destroy it. That said, it is still not clear how they would do it but having as much money as they do can do a lot...

What we all try to ignore is the world most celebrated bubble in recent times is the stock crash of 2008/2009 that gave birth to bitcoin whatever anybody wishes to say, he is entitled to his opinion and its because of the current situation that these is happening. When bitcoin is increasing then we get to see either quote from CNN or Forbes or even another popular personality. Robert Shiller has made his position known and its being noted accordingly and for the fact that he was right yesterday does not mean he will always be right.

well said its his own perception even his a well known personality even bill gates also commented about bitcoin and if he seen on his part that this
coin is just a bubble we don't need to argue with him, let the people who believe with this currency dictates the value of this project.

I am one thing sure of is that when Robert Schiller was writing his book, bitcoin has not come into existence and for someone to now start linking unrelated items is what I don't understand. If current situation is to be likened to a bubble then I see a massive crash of price and even the whole of the market capitalization is a fraction of what happen in 2008 that is what can be likened to a bubble and not a minor set back in price due to some news from certain quarters.