Bitcoin Forum

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

you joined only a month ago. would you have been here 2 years ago, you would have seen this several times … no surprise.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=211771.0

Pretty sure everyone saw it coming. It was discussed in the wall thread for awhile. Bids stacking way up, Asks were dropping off, people saw this rally coming from a mile away.

It was going sideways for weeks, this was a pretty minor bump. Just people tired of waiting for cheap coins. Less volatility helps get new investor in. With no buying Monday-Thursday, it was pretty clear on Friday that the bids were going to have to actually cross over to get some coins. So they did.  ;D

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me.  :-\

I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

I've been trading every day since 2011 and I didn't see that little mini rally coming.  I thought we would do a slow slide down, stay sideways forever like last year, or maybe a little grind up.  One thing I do know, buy on this weekend dip, because we might hit all time highs next week when the banks open and more people can get USD into the exchanges.  Oh, and don't watch just Mt Gox.  Seems like the time is right for the other exchanges to handle more of the volume.

Hahahaha. I'll bet you 1:10 that Bitcoin won't hit new alltime highs until the end of next week (until begin of Monday, UTC). Let me know if you are willing to do that, and how much volume (denominated in BTC). Source should be mtgoxUSD.

If there's consensus on anything you pretty much know for sure that it's not going to happen. ;)

this community relies on this waaaayyyy too much

case in point, I had wired to Mt. Gox months before I made an account here

I don't make bets on the price off the exchanges.  I only bet on the price by placing orders on the exchanges.  The more important part of my post that I was trying to get across was to buy the weekend dip.  It's usually a pretty safe bet.  There has only been a handful of weekends, IMO, where the price didn't dip on the weekends.

I really suck at math so correct me if I am wrong, but my current theory is that if the "first" peak was at $32, then the second at $266, then we should see a new peak at $2200, or if you want to round out the next gain to 1,000% then we might see $2660.  It might take a week, or it might take 5 years.  Personally, I am selling at just under $1,000 so that I can wipe out my fiat debt  ;)

If you think you're going to see a new ATH in the middle of a market that only trades sideways until someone with 1MM+ in fiat comes and moves the market +$3, you're delirious.

To be honest I was completely confused at why the huge dip after we hit $165-ish happened in the first place. I mean, I expected a drop down to like $140, but more than that was completely unexpected for me. I still think it should be about $140 now, tbh.

I saw it coming.  This is just the beginning, IMO.

I just follow a Goomboo-like strategy and pay alot of attention to the Bollinger width.

It's simply reversion the 2013 exponential growth trend. It should go higher in the coming days/weeks until it catches up. Right now it should be above $150, so it's likely to make another upward move soon.

I saw it coming, or at least thought it was bullish, but before it happened I was beginning to second guess myself.

The Genesis Block predicted it pretty well:
http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-trading-are-we-primed-for-a-major-move-higher/

I predicted $266 by the weekend. So my prediction was only half right.

$532 by next weekend.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

^^at first i thought he was making a joke with this line




^^now, i'm notsureifserious.jpg

Yep, it's just the beginning  ;)

Thanks for the input, some interesting points were made.

One thing though, I probably should have made my original question a bit more clear: I wasn't really asking for (post-hoc) explanation for why it makes sense that the price went up, but rather was wondering how your own {complex, simple, bordering-on-the-retarded} predictive models fared with this rally.

My interpretation of fundamentals aside (which is bullish mid term), about 24 to 48 hours before the early morning of the 23rd (does it make sense to call that the beginning of the rally?), I was strongly expecting further horizontal movement. And I was proven wrong.

So what I wanted to find out was how you arrived either at the right conclusion, or why you think your own analytical tools didn't catch this one. Bit of a public review of your methods, I guess.

That's were I'm puzzled. We've been trading sideways for 10 days now (the occasional spike upwards or downwards nonwithstanding), no breakout happening during that time. The genesisblock post was relatively early calling it, but was phrased pretty cautious as well. Plus, I think trading sideways is mainly seen as a phase of consolidation, after which the previous dominant trend continues (strengthened). And determining what the dominant trend was/is still an open question (although I'm also leaning more towards up uP UP now :P)

You must also keep in mind that bitcoin currently has a higher inflation rate than most fiat currencies, so by not falling it is actually rising.

I based my prediction on the assumption that the crash was only a correction and that's why we saw damped oscillation after the crash until we found stable ground at around 110-115. We've built a base there and from there the previous trend upwards from before the hyperbolic rise would have to continue according to my thoughts. I wasn't entirely sure about it and also considered more sideways movement, but I did feel that the most likely outcome would be a slow but significant rise up from 115. When it went up to 120-125 last week this validified my thoughts, so I expected nothing less than a continuation of this trend.

I did.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208397.msg2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215142.0

I saw it coming, even told my brother that he should buy some.
If we just look at the logaritmic chart(http://tonycoleby.com/bitcoin.html (http://tonycoleby.com/bitcoin.html)) you can see we should hit 160$ soon.
I also watched the wall @bitstamp, there was some arbetrage towards MtGox I guess just before Mt Gox really took off.

Based on Tony Coleby's chart, I predict 180-200 (overshoot) before the end of next week, then a drop towards 1150-160$ (undershoot). After this move, we will see a stable price growth of 1.8% daily.

just reading through your previous blog posts. don't really understand yet what kind of models you use, but something something ML it seems :-P

I saw it coming on November 2011, when I invested in my first Bitcoins. Watched from the sidelines for almost a year lol

Correct, we operate a machine learning and quotation platform which prices many different types of financial instruments, including most BTC pairs.

lolzz

You mean right after you had sunk your investment capital into Soiledcoins ?

 :P

 ;D ;D ;D

i see it coming. a sell off now. traders let it run time to cash in.

I see 500$ coins, coming.

The markets are looking gangsta right now.

I can pretty much guarantee a drop from here since I bought at 135.

Many saw this coming, bitcoins are poised to be THE virtual currency and now that they have become less volatile they are certainly far more desirable.

Which is going to lead to volatility which will lead to a drop in price which will lead to less volatile which will lead to price increase which will lead to price drop.....

*head explodes*

I luv u Bitcoin

I think almost everyone saw it coming...
Just look at fundamentals instead of those silly technicals...

everyone in bitcoin saw the price going up at some point. the difference is most traders did not see any signs of this sudden increase. This is a sign that a company is about to tell us something big. All people who know say for example western union is about to start using bitcoin will rush in and buy up as much as they can all at the same time. I am not saying western union is doing anything of the sort it just an example.

Are there any sites that draw Bollinger bands for you like Yahoo does for stocks?

My 2 cents... I've been observing these trends and a lot of these mini jumps coincides with the Avalon miners/chips buying. In a low volume market any kind of buying tends to move it easily. The current Avalon batches 10,000 each batch (around USD100k) are selling out quite easily

When bitcoin was 25 cents, I was sitting on a few thousand dollars and was considering either gold or bitcoin.

Needless to say, I didn't choose bitcoin.

http://bitcoincharts.com

Here from 4 days before the rally:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2217116#msg2217116

Pretty good, but here's the real test: did you act on it, and with how much commitment?

Cause for example, I called yesterday's dip with high accuracy and well before it began, yet I didn't make any trades that took advantage of it, part out of laziness, part out of doubt about my own analysis.

Indeed. Everyone's situation is different. I have bought and sold and re-bought, so was "all-in" last time from 117, so I didn't buy more although a spike up seemed likely.  I have also decided to reduce my exposure to mtgox to a minimum until such time as the uncertainly over the Dwolla situation is resolved (even though I have never used Dwolla, and never intend to).

I find it inexplicable that mtgox have not released a proper official statement to reassure their customers that they a working to comply with the FinCen regulations and unfreeze that account. I mean, how can they ignore their own obligations when they make their customers go through the verification (KYC evidence supplying) process?

I think the next few days will be good for BTC.  I think the Liberty Reserve issue will send some people over to BTC.  I know some think it will might hurt but I think the opposite will happen.

So, my prediction is $150 by Friday. 

I am usually NOT right though. ;)