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Title: Bitcoin Adoption Lifecycle Post by: EADG on September 10, 2017, 05:03:59 PM Hi everyone,
I wanted to check in on where people think we are today. If this has been done recently please let me know. My searches only show the original topic that I got the idea from. Original topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113606.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=113606.0) I'll let Adrian-x start it off again. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d3/Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png/800px-Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png The adoption lifecycle applies to almost everything from Memes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme) to technology to business ideas even Bitcoin. Looking at the injustice that is a result of our current money and economic system, it seems inevitable that a system like Bitcoin is an absolute necessity, and it is propagating according to the Law of Diffusion of Innovations. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations) My concern for Bitcoin to benefit the masses, (let's say 1/5th of the planet) 1,400,000,000 people; we need at least 15% early adopters to achieve the necessary momentum to trigger a tipping point. (That is about 210,000,000 enthusiasts to use and benefit from Bitcoin before it gets mass market appeal) that = BTC0.1 per person on average. As the current distribution of Bitcoin stands at the moment Early Adopters were the ones who got in before the 2011 bubble and the new comers are looking like the Early to Late majority. The big question is why adopt Bitcoin if the majority of benefit (50% of easy money) has already been distributed? That kind of limits new comers to Bitcoin to the Late Majority and Laggard status and limiting the total adoption to around 60,000 enthusiasts. How do I sell the benefits of a fixed currency like Bitcoin when the wealth created by the labour of over a 100,000 people transfers to a single early adopter with a balance of a few thousand coins? Simon Sinek has a great TED talk on TED.com on "Why" (http://blog.ted.com/2010/05/04/how_great_leade/), people adopt new technologies. If you haven't read Crossing the Chasm (http://books.google.ca/books?id=yJXHUDSaJgsC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Crossing+the+Chasm&source=bl&ots=KTPFpdVcRl&sig=55w8EegvmBJFesSn6dnwCAiKZRc&hl=en&sa=X&ei=CgVlUJz4C4m1igKx1YG4BA&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=Crossing%20the%20Chasm&f=false) by Geoffrey Moore it is a good read. |
