Bitcoin Forum

The calculator I use:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

shows Bitcoin mining as a fools errand.  How can there possibly be thousands of you out there doing it?  I must be wrong.

So I need a fact/peer check on my numbers:

Using an Avalon 741(7.3RTH/s and 1150 nominal watts) as the miner I am showing the day you start loosing money is less than a year away in virtually all reasonable scenarios - and in every one of them the unit is not paid for by that date.  I am using:

1236Watts(1150 with 93% efficiency)
5 , 8, and 12% difficulty growth
7.3 TH/s
3000 BTC/USD
1172 in delivery/hardware/setup costs
$.05799/KWH

Antminer S9 is in the same ballpark.  What am I missing?  I am sure my half price power(half comes from solar array left over from another project) is cheaper than everyone else's.  So bitcoin mining sounds pretty stupid, even at these high bitcoin prices.  Is everyone else stealing power??

Sounds like eMark is the way to go currently?

The missing piece: just like Nd, Bitcoin price is not a constant.

Emarks are also not constant in price and in mining profitability and they fluctuate very quickly, a reason why not many people will mine them. Its best to just mine pure Bitcoin to get away from the hassles of mining and then finding a good exchange rate and getting your coins. With the current difficulty and prices it may not always be profitable to mine but there is always the chance price will go back up again. Keep in mind you are also competing with Bitmain and other large farms who can mine at electrical costs far below yours.

and


Thanks for both replies.  Here are my bottom line numbers(.05799/KwH) .  While I understand some global locations can compete on power, how in the world are there so many miners in the US?:



Average $3000USD and 5% growth in complexity  = Never make money
Average $3500USD and 5%                                 = Run in the green for a few months but after ~1 year out the complexity catches up
Average $4000USD and 5%                                 = Scenario people are hoping for IF YOU HAVE 5cent/KwH electricity.
Average $4500USD and 5% AND $.12KwH energy = Run in the green for a few months but after ~1 year out the complexity catches up
Average $5000USD and 5%                                 = ~$500 profit - 12cent/KwH electricity.  BUT YOU START LOOSING MONEY IN 14 MONTHS and have to shut it down.

I think the only way you make money is to steal power because I think its unreasonable to expect the value to average well over 5K in the next 12-18 months.   Maybe!  But that is a very poor gamble in my book.

The only fly I see in my calculations is complexity rises and falls episodically but averages are smooth.  If it stays the same for 12 months and then rises 5%, then technically my average is "right" but I am making much more money.

Thoughts?

Keep in mind that most BIG farms are paying 3c / kwh OR LESS for electric.

 Even a lot of us SMALL farms can get into that ballpark, by being in the right area.

 You are now starting to understand the reason I moved last summer when I decided to go "pro" as a miner.

You just dont understand how this game works. Do a little more research and you will quickly see trying to forecast 12+ months away is a complete waste of time.

yep

this game is thread water.  save a portion of coins 


so  as long as you are above your power cost  you put coin on the side.


ie

 buy  gear.

it earns  1000 and power is 300 first month  that is 700 plus

cash out  some of the profit  say 350  keep 350 in coin.

if coin spikes  sell the save coins


never think  more then 6-8 weeks in advance.

Phil is 100% right. The trick is to be ready when the new gear comes out or you get left in the dust. I mean even the s7 is still marginally profitable years after its release. The price and difficulty will adjust in a way that keeps things profitable enough to survive when you have current generation miners. You just need to be prepared for the next big hardware revamp/upgrade. The big mistake people make, especially when they start to run larger farms is they dont set aside enough of the profits to do this. Then they are stuck making crumbs once the bulk of the new hardware hits the network.