Bitcoin Forum

Disclaimer: I own no bitcoin and am not trying to scare the bejesus out of anybody who does or doesn't.

This image is my analysis on an xe.com screenshot of the last 1 year of XBT as USD:
https://postimg.org/image/sfxvp6o1x/

Raw armchair analysis here - the takeaway is that the current bitcoin value of $3381 is a key point of support, if broken thorough the next point of support is $2500.  The green lines show some volatility in 2016/2017,  Feb-July 2017 in yellow lines shows increased volatility with a peak in June when there was some negative news to take the shine off Bitcoin temporarily, but really April to September in blue lines have seen 3x the variability of early 2017.

Looks like the volume has been dropping off recently - previously the volume increased with price (suggesting lots of agreement between buyers and sellers on price), but the price has come down and so has volume - suggests the buyers/sellers are having difficulties with the current price.  Buyers may be thinking the price will go lower, sellers may be thinking this is just a dip.

I think the next 48 hours are going to be pretty telling.

Good luck to all!

You guys are welcome to comment on my conjecture!  Am I off my rocker or am I at least 50% right?

Since we do not know what will be the price sooner for me the price are less possible to be fall at $2,500 but it can be fall soon not much the same as your prediction.. but i still holding even i'm losing my small investment that i bought when the price is $4k above including the profit from trading and signature campaign .... If the price can stay at $3k value i think it can stop to $2800 value as starting will be price stable and increase back to $3k value until december and after the split we will see a large price increase back.. i am just relaying in the past years compare to the price of bitcoin today..

Redraw your graph to show it will hit $10k soon. you are not allowed to be bearish on bitcointalk. goodbye!

Any prediction on alts?

Feel free to suggest to me which specific alts you're interested in and I'd be happy to analyze them.

I predict alt's will stay the same price in relation to their satoshi value in BTC.
But since bitcoin is crashing, their USD value will go down with it of course.

If you check on poloniex, alt's don't seem to be affected that much by the BTC crash that's currently going on.

I get my bonus next friday, so although quite selfish, i'd be happy for it to drop further.

Ultimately everyone should be buying more, for almost double the profit when it hits a new ATH in Oct.

I believe that you were a ForEx or stock market trader.
I agree with you when I look on to the graph. Although the graph I am looking do not have many technical indicator. I am yet to discover the best site that give better indicator, for I am new to bitcoin.
The next support probably between 2200 to 2700USD.
Goodluck to all traders.

 "I own no bitcoin"

Then fuck off with your opinions to your other gutless friends. Assfuck.

I DO own and use bitcoin on a regular basis.

To me, based on that chart and what I have been thinking before this crash is that the "True value" of BTC is $2500-$3000.  Just look at the forecast, based on the yellow lines on your chart.  That is natural growth by the real bitcoin users.  The sudden surges etc were from non-bitcoin users.  Meaning Chinese currency manipulators and stock market investors looking to make a quick buck.  Investors like that are not loyal, nor do they care about the future of bitcoin - only quick profits.  Bitcoin users believe in the technology and future of bitcoin, so they stay for the long run.  The natural, slow growth of bitcoin users is made over months and years, not days and weeks.

The volume has increased and I don't believe that the price of btc would come to the 2900$ level since the huge surge of pump will come unto it and maybe should hold our btc for now so that we will not regret if the pump scenario will came again with bitcoins. Remember bitcoins is not a shit as other coins there and this is strong and the reigning King on Cryptocurrency world.

I agree with this it was obvious we were in the middle of a bubble, we went straight through, we almost did not touch the three thousands, so it is obvious that a correction was coming since speculators were getting ready to get out of bitcoin as soon as a negative news came.

- all kinds of analysis is pseudoscience at best and it is not really working well for "predicting"
- analysis does not work for bitcoin because of many reasons, and it has never did.
- analysis does not work for bitcoin specially in times like this that there are other forces driving the market such as this vast spread of FUD and all the media attacks on bitcoin.

It may go to 2500 USD?  Yes please!  It's a gift!  Didn't most of you wish to have bought Bitcoin at under 3000 USD?  Well it's coming.  Get all that fiat ready and place your buy orders quick.

GL everyone.  ;)

Great attitude!

There were so many media issues that could be attributed to today's rush into bitcoin:
- bombing in UK train
- NKorea firing missiles over Japan

There were also other issues that could have pushed it further down:
- JP Morgan CEO calling it a fraud
- China shutting down exchanges (Although I've read this was because they want further regulation before continuing so this piece of news could be taken either way)

Do you think the dip is done or is today's rally just a bull trap?

Well I think it is done and is already on it's way to stabilize before rising. It will rise or dump more depending on how the market will move in the next 24 hours. That being said, I still thing we will see another bullish market soon because the weak hands have sold all the bitcoins they got now probably. Most Chinese also have unloaded a lot of bitcoin too so probably it will not dump more.

For now i think all altcoin are also affected about the news and we don't know what will be the predict for altcoin but better to choose an altcoin which is already in the market rankings and if the price of bitcoin increases these days expect that those altcoin will increase also ..
Look at the price in coinmarketcap if the price of bitcoin increase altcoin too are increasing..
For now we are heard a good news from china that i think it can help for people to be easily choose to invest and now starting to increase back again..

these things have always existed, but other times we don't pay them much attention. or don't make the connection.

it doesn't have to be one or the other. it may very well be the recovery. the big dip needed to correct too. it is not just a big rise that needs a correction.

This is the right attitude but one that not many people exhibit, many people say they want bitcoin to be cheap to buy again but when given the opportunity they choose not to do it because they are afraid that bitcoin will go even lower so as you can see those people are never going to invest in bitcoin for real because they do not really believe in bitcoin.

Technically bitcoin is seriously fighting to remain above $4,000 and there a lot of force using governments and medias to bring it's bellow that level. We only need few positive news to keep bitcoin growing from the attacked it has had recently from people like Jamie Dimon and others people of the same mind.

I don't think we will get too close to $3381 in the next week or so.
The price is treading water at the moment, $4000 seems to be the ceiling, with only occasional moves about it.  $3650 now could easily be $4000 again later today with the crazy swings we have been seeing over the last months.

I expect a fall, but not yet.

In my opinion, I felt the Chinese are just trying to manipulate the market by trying to create a lot of negative news and spreading it around to create panic selling among traders, they have already done that quite a number of times in the past. My advice for everyone is just ignore all the news releasing from China recently, and hold all your bitcoins and altcoins in your wallet, it will surely rise to another high record, patience is a virtue.

As you talking about previous week it was just an accident and wrong understanding in simple words we can say that mis understanding of investors therefore it came down now it is rising once again and going upward.

I am seeing the same thing and I hope to see us back in bullish momentum. We may not get back to $2,500 but if the bad news from China keep creating panic we may get below $3000. Currently the price is recovering from the last bearish market we have witnessed and I seriously hope that September 30th will be positive and I expect Chinese regulatory agency to change their minds.