Bitcoin Forum

Hey all,
I wrote this article that got a lot of play in the tech world.

http://www.venturebeat.com/2017/09/14/why-bitcoin-crashes-twice-a-week/

Would love to ask the board if I missed anything in the analysis,

Cheers,

Adam
http://bison.gg (esports + blockchain)

I like, good article.  Here is a list of the real "crashes" if defined as anything over a 33% decline, (update: the current decline is a "crash" under this definition with its sub $3000 price):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJtdMF7W0AAdA1n.jpg


It would be nice to define and give meaning to the word "crash" but that will never happen in the click-bait world where we now live.

I would say more like twice a month. lol

In all seriousness though, Bitcoin is crashing slower and longer than ever before. The more money involved, the longer things take to happen. And there is A LOT more money in BTC now than even a few years ago (like, way more) which means we are not going to see the same volatility even now than we did then.

BurtW, that's a great chart, did you make it? For the investor used to normal stocks, 33% is a lot, but as we know in the crypto sphere, that's just another day for us.

No, I found it in another thread.  Sorry, do not remember the original author.

Bitcoin low in the last crash was around $3000, even lower in China.. Why is he faking the low, or where did he get the "low" from?

Of course it is good for marketing, but I feel it is not really true.

You did not read my entire post.  The table was constructed during the current crash.  I did not update the table itself.  Instead, in the body of my post I wrote:


I am not "marketing" anything.  Learn to read entire posts.

that was probably the situation as of the moment the chart was built (as you see, it doesn't consider the correction finished, it goes up to sept. 13) On Sept. 13 that was about right. The bigger fall was Sept 15.

Moreover, you don't take the minimum at which one trade was done on one exchange, you use something like coinmarketcap's charts, an average of the markets.

Also, obviously, that line is in yellow to indicate the decline is still in progress at the time the chart was made.

That chart is brilliant.

It looks like the percentage declines are getting smaller, and the duration of the declines are getting smaller. The only reason bitcoin moves as much as it does is because the marketcap is still pretty small, so easy for a few players to move it. Once it becomes truly gargantuan, it will only move by a few percent.

Maybe it’s the halo effect, but bitcoin is making otherwise rational business journalists go bonkers.

Let’s review a few headlines from this past week:

CNBC: Bitcoin’s price tanks after report China may shut down exchanges
TheStreet: Bitcoin Prices Are Crashing After China’s Bitkan Suspends OTC Trading
Business Insider: Bitcoin tanks 11.5% since Jamie Dimon called it ‘a fraud’
Forbes: Collateral Damage From The Inevitable Bitcoin Crash
On LinkedIn, an abundance of such headlines led to the summary:

“Bitcoin is tanking again: Here’s why”
With words like Crash! Tank! Dip! Dive! Slide!, you can be forgiven for thinking the bottom’s fallen out of bitcoin. Even articles with less sensationalist headline

Well it was always going to crash once the China news became official nothing new in that, but I felt more than a crash it felt like a buying opportunity. Many like me made the most of it and got good coins. I feel the crash now should not bother us much more as we are moving away from China news, Russia is welcoming miners and Japan is expanding Bitcoins. However with the new November fork coming up, that could be a issue. So let's hope it grows and not crashes.

I wouldn't really include the last couple of crashes as crashes (even though in normal terms they are huge huge crashes).
Because Bitcoin is so volatile, a 30% move can happen in hours and be recovered from just as quickly.

The real crashes were after the $30, $276 and $1200 peaks. They were longer lasting and deeper.  If we have another fall like that, then $1000 could be tested in the next year or 2.
It is depressing going through those phases, just look at the Bitcoin move on netflix to see how people felt after a year of falling prices.

Very good article, very matter of fact and accurate
which really is what most of the main stream headlines
have failed to do.

Of course we are in an age of sensationalism so the media
need to attract visitors and subscribers etc.

I particularly like these 3 paragraphs of analysis

the headlines and articles conveniently omit:

    Normal volatility. Over the summer, there were 21 days when bitcoin
either went up or went down by more than 5 percent. That’s almost twice
a week! Was bitcoin “crashing” or “soaring” every time? Of course not.

    Context. Bitcoin began the year at $600; it’s $4,000 today. In the
context of this growth, what does “tanking” even mean? Bitcoin could
lose 70 percent of its value and still show a 100 percent return on the year.

    Bitcoin Cash. The price of bitcoin doesn’t factor in forks, like the free
Bitcoin Cash distribution holders received last month. Bitcoin cash now trades
for $500 per unit, so even if the price of bitcoin falls, holders may still see a gain.

Thanks for posting, we need more level headed and accurate
reporting and article writing like this.

Good article. Yes, bitcoin is volatile, altough it is becoming less and less so, and the current decrease is quite typical and expected, but not sensational.

If what you mean by crashing is – rising and falling, then all I have to say is very Hooray! Lol. If the price will just fall down to $1000 and then I happen to invest and in the same week it goes up to about $5000, wow, that’s good.

If you look back in Bitcoin's history and you look at this chart, it becomes clear how "Ballsy" some Hoarders are how you

should respect someone, if they held onto their coins through these rough periods. I must admit, I came close to selling a

couple of times before, when we had a major dump in the price. Sanity prevailed and I held onto my coins. How strong would

we be, when the price hits $10 000 or even $100 000/bitcoin.  ???

I called it the beauty of bitcoin. This beauty couldn’t be found in any other coin and that is the case the international market is just getting saturated with bitcoins only. Dumps and pumps are necessary else if this gets a stable level, believe me nothing will be shining in bitcoin industry.

Bitcoin does not crash. It has a volatility rate of 4% which is better than any other currency or asset so people can stop saying that it crashes as it always comes back. Zoom out on your price timelines people.

No body clicks links on here and nobody really follows people on their little trips into guess work land. We can see that you are trying to be the big analyst, but this work has already been done by the big boys and is all over the place. There are times and reasons for the bitcoin prices crashes but it is mush less than the times when bitcoin prices rises.

I would like to know how did you calculated that bitcoin has 4% volatility rate, or where you read about it. That's putting the bitcoin volatility very precisely!
I Agree that btc is comparatively less volatile than other cryptocurrencies.

it has passed, bitcoin is now at any time potentially higher, maybe later this year will be more pumped, possibilities and expectations are always in tandem.