Bitcoin Forum

Though the difficulty is adjusted in an attempt to maintain the targeted 10 minute block discovery time, this only occurs every 2016 blocks by using the time required to mine the previous 2016 blocks as a reference. While nobly designed, the reality is that computational power is being added at such a significant rate that the network regularly underestimates its adjustments, leading to an average time between blocks so far in 2013 of approximately 8 minutes and 55 seconds – 11% faster than expected.

If the network adjusts difficulty to average 10 minutes based on the speed of discovery of the past 2016 blocks, we’re almost guaranteed to continue seeing average discovery time below 10 minutes as long as computing power continues to grow. In addition to fundamental forward projections for technology like Moore’s Law, there are already known surges in network computing power in the pipeline. With Avalon ASICs now shipping, 10,000 USB miners from ASICMiner currently in production, and Butterfly Labs supposedly, maybe, eventually delivering thousands of backordered units, there’s strong reason to believe this trend will continue.

If the network adjusts difficulty to average 10 minutes based on the speed of discovery of the past 2016 blocks, we’re almost guaranteed to continue seeing average discovery time below 10 minutes as long as computing power continues to grow. In addition to fundamental forward projections for technology like Moore’s Law, there are already known surges in network computing power in the pipeline. With Avalon ASICs now shipping, 10,000 USB miners from ASICMiner currently in production, and Butterfly Labs supposedly, maybe, eventually delivering thousands of backordered units, there’s strong reason to believe this trend will continue.