Bitcoin Forum

Here's some healthy price perspective for you...

Approximate time BTC price has been between:

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Edit: quoting my post below:

Doubling times might be another way to look at it...

Approximate time to "permanently" double:

from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)

Edit: quoting my plot below:

The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings.

Average doubling time: 6 months
Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40)
Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160)

The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet.

At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CW7IQQ.png

     0-$1000: 100,000%
$1000-2000: 100%
$2000-3000: 50%
$3000-4000: 33%
$4000-5000: 25% (and has not yet happened by the way).

now that you look at it like this, you can see it was not really a significant rise, you should change your price ranges into percentages if you want to compare them in my opinion. (it will still be similar -faster rise as time passes- but it won't be that big)

the adoption is like this and we are still in the "early adopters" stage which is pretty slow. and it will get faster soon and becomes vertical (with it price will be the same) until the mass adoption and then it plateaus.

http://i2.wp.com/www.business-planning-for-managers.com/Worpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/adoption_curve.jpg

Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now.

Before waving goodbye to $3xxx forever! Bitcoin itself is here to stay.

I think OP's price ranges is just right after all, it is just a timeline. Looking at yours, it is also a good comparison table too and right now I think the point where adoption will get pretty fast will happen by next year or maybe it will be sooner than that. As I can see it now, bitcoin got more exposure than ever before right after the current price rise so a possibility of mass adoption is sure to happen within a year considering Japan and other countries that legalized it wont declare that it is illegal within the time frame.

Doubling times might be another way to look at it...

Approximate time to "permanently" double:

from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)

Let's project.

Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.

Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020

To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022

And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027

Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.

i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!

first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.

$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".

I'm guiding myself with this table here:

https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd

This took closer to 4 years than 8 years.

Based on this graph, one could argue we're all Innovators! Less than 2.5% of the population uses Bitcoin. I have very high hopes for Bitcoin once SegWit is used a lot more, especially when the Lighting Network becomes main stream. As far as I understand it right now LN would mean I can create a "small expenses wallet" on LN, and put the equivalent of $100 in there. I can then use LN to send and receive small amounts (buy 2 coffee, sell one to a colleague). All off this off-chain with near instant confirmations and very low fees. That would allow Bitcoin to go mainstream. Faucets could instantly pay small amounts again too.
Meanwhile, large transactions would remain on-chain. If my LN-wallet gets loaded, I can transfer some to any other wallet again.
So far for my future dreams. Back to this graph: note the S-shape that's common for market penetration. Exponential growth can't be sustained forever, at some point it will have to slow down.

All in all I see a bright future for Bitcoin. But do yourself a favour: don't compare a linear thing (time) with an exponential thing (price) without using a logarithmic scale.

The speed of bitcoin's price growing is rising in arifmetic progression  :D so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!

Nice forecast, i wish it to be 10k till end of 2018.
Does they have background for the forecasts?

So according to your word we can still expect higher prices from bitcoin and other coins. This will be eventually and this will make us stressful probably. If we can survive, the bright is future.

I think after this whole China news went down, the growth factor of Bitcoin will slow down. I think by the end of this year, we may be able to see BTC at 5000. After that, there might be a drop due to people selling at 5k and the lack of explosive growth.

I'm not interested in the first time we hit $2500 (the ceiling), but the last time (the floor), providing a much more robust estimate of true doubling time. On Bitstamp this was July 26. Today is Sept 24. My 2 month estimate was off by 2 days.


The last time it was $1000 was March 27 and $2500 was July 26. So my 4 month estimate is off by only one day.

Cut a brother some slack?  ;D

Bitcoin was activated January 2009. The last time it was $1000 on Bitstamp was March 27 of this year. Eight years and three months.

I don't consider ATHs because they are far too unstable. Willy's Mt Gox manipulation gave us our first $1000 ATH, which lasted for what, all of 10 days?  It took until March 27 of this year for $1000 to finally establish a floor.

I'm not interested in transient doublings but "permanent" ones. I say "permanent" because I'm assuming (hoping, praying) it will never drop down to $1000 again.

I suppose for traders, ATH doublings might hold some significance. But for long time HODLers, it's the "permanent" doublings that really matter.

Nice, so looking at the last Min predictions only, they put the $5000 doubling at 8 mos in March 2018, and the $10,000 doubling 12 months later in May 2019. Close to the 1 year projection times I posted above.

OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information.  This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves.  And they most often do not.

Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors.  None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts.  None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet.  That tells me that TA doesn't work.  So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.

I completely agree with short term TA.

But long term trends tend to be immune to short term shocks to the system. Even Warren Buffet advises HODLing index funds, because over the long term, the market has always gone up. He recently won nearly $2 million betting on this long term trend:

https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2017/09/18/warren-buffett-won-2-million-from-a-bet-that-he-made-ten-years-ago.html

Zoom the S&P 500 out from 1977 to today and apply a several year moving average, and you will see a line that does not dip, even with war, disasters, and systemic asshole bankers. The thesis and trend of the overall market remains intact, thus far. And betting on this has most definitely made Warren Buffett rich.

Do this with Bitcoin prices since inception on a logarithmic plot and you will see a very similar long term trend. Assuming the fundamental Bitcoin thesis holds true, this long term trend should, hopefully, continue, FUD and all, no TA required.

This would really help a lot newbies that are only starting in learning the history of bitcoin and I think this will make a motivation for certain people that the value has jump to a certain increase if they would see how much the price had rise I think many would be interested with bitcoin but I think bitcoin will never gonna go out anytime soon.

As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.

It is not that easy to predict the price and the speculation is only based on one factors there are a lot of factors can determine the price, and there are also the chances the price is dropping, but it is a good information for all of us
I prefer to see the price condition by current situation not based on some past information, because for now the situation is very different

i disagree.
because first of all bitcoin should be affected less and less by government as it grows bigger. and so far these "set backs" have not been caused by the government at all. each and every one of them has been because of how the market itself and all the weak hands in it have reacted to some dumb news (FUD).

for example earlier this year when price broke $1200 resistance a new FUD started about BU breaking bitcoin and splitting it and killing it, ... blah blah! and price tanked hard to $890ish. and there are lots more of these. are you calling them "government effect?

but as the market grows bigger, the resistances also become bigger. less weak hands or at least they will be smaller percentage of the market so their idiotic panic won't cause big dips.

I totally agree. bitcoin will be less affected by the future Government and it will grow bigger. Bitcoin current price is only affected by its owners

it is good calculation but the price is not to easy to be predicted as we are know that bitcoin price is changing every time. but at least we can know the increasing bitcoin price from time to time. we need more time to see the price is increase but yes we are on the way to go that price. I think its better if we do the best we can to collect more bitcoin so when the price is increase, we have our bitcoin ready to sell and help us to make profit.

It not hard if you create a small target, only by you very greedy and want to earn a large amount of money from an order. I usually set ratio ~2-10% and depends on the supply and demand on the market.

So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).

In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.

Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.

No, I was thinking after another couple months hovering in the $3xxxs, that it will rise and never fall below $4000 again. A new floor. I agree that a mini bear market might be forthcoming, but I don't think we'll fall too much below $4000, not with Wall Street and more countries gearing up involvement into 2018.  I certainly don't think we'll ever fall below $2000 again and $3000 might be a stretch too.

I think the next real level to watch out will be $10k. Now we don't really remember the movement from $300 to $400. Soon all these short term pull backs won't matter.

I'm expecting that by this October the price of bitcoin can able to reach for 4000$ again and look for the price of it right now it almost reaching for 4000$ and just a few bucks away before to be happen. And We have a good basis on it since maybe the Chine issues will be shut off for this month and those whales will buy more.

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

It seems to me that all price spikes are signs of artificial origin. No one can predict the behavior of whales in the market. Bitcoin is a Paradise for speculators. Everyone is trying to get rich on this oblivious to the fact that if the uncontrolled bubble to inflate it can burst.

Why not? 3k was never meant to be touched but it was all a shift of money through Chinese investors which made all this occur.
But as the saying goes, after a storm comes a calm and so, other countries managed to deprive their effect by continuously buying back cheap coins they knew that won't be there for long. It was a delightful treat to those who bought at those prices because I feel this won't be coming now and till forever.

The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings.

Average doubling time: 6 months
Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40)
Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160)

The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet.

At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CW7IQQ.png

10,000$ is really near because it will go to 10,000 soon like we can say that it will go in December because bitcoin is looking to give a gift to it's users so keep calm and watch the gift of bitcoin.

it's true, the storm must pass, after a few weeks of bitcoin in the crisis crisis with the price dropping drastically and it's back on track, when the big whales are coming in to adopt bitcoin, this will reflect very successfully for those who buy at the lowest price in the week then

Sweet doubling graph!

For the above predictions, I think likely something between the first and second prediction will occur in the coming years. i.e. passing $40k for the last time in 2020 and passing $80k for the last time in 2021.

Overall great predictions and charts and whatnot!

Yes we have reached and crossed 4k in Sept itself and 3 days to go before if can see another 200-300 $ movement in coming days means we should be near 4500$ in the Oct beginning. Hope so this upward is not just for short time and falls back due to China or some other country again.

It's only been a month since I last posted this chart.  As long as 5120 holds, we are looking at another floor-to-floor doubling in only 11 weeks.

The floor-to-floor doubling from 1280 to 2560 took 13 weeks.

The price has remained above 5000 for 14 days.

The price has been above 6000 only 4 days.

Does that make 5500 feel a little better?

At this rate, $10,000 floor for the New Year?  :o

https://i.imgur.com/gPnz0j6.png

He is not saying that bitcoin is going to end, he is saying that bitcoin needed to be in the range of 3000 dollars for a longer period of time, it was not FUD it was just an observation based on the numbers he is crunching to be honest I found the post very interesting and I like it a lot.

The price of bitcoin might not push over seven thousand dollars this month but by next month it might give me a profit of over $7000 after the fork with the split in the network and the two alternative coins might give me a profit above that per coin,lets see how the market reacts after the split and i hope everything ends well.

The price will increase more more miners and at the same time investors. This probably is the for a new start of increasing price. The split was already done but surprisingly it is yet to increase and it is still stagnant in price. BTC gold however made a great price deficit in just one day in fact their is close to no price that i could find in coinmarketcap. I don't know but i think their are no miners for btcgold?

There are, but not publicly. As it is right now, they (the entities behind BTG) are far too busy with premining the s... out of that coin, and once that is done, they will be open to the public in like a week or so from now. That very much explains why there aren't exchanges (aside from Yobit) where you can trade this market. Yobit's BTG price has reached a low of 0.035+BTC, and considering the premine, amateurish way of taking care of things, shitty code, even this price is far too expensive. Especially when you take their 100,000BTG premine into consideration, which at current levels is worth 3500BTC or $20,000,000. Another thing is that if they do happen to go public, there aren't many exchanges looking to list them due to there not being any protection against replay attacks.

I agree, that price can't really reach $7000 because its just a couple of days before the end of the month and the price is around $5700. But I'm happy how this month turns out, coming from a crash in September due to Chinese negative news, this month we reached another ATH. And next month we will see another looming fork, segwit2x. Maybe by next month we will really see the price touch $7000 right before the fork.

all this price is only pump so price can back more than 1,000$  with only 1 bad news like china ban