Bitcoin Forum

There could be any number of things that cause Bitcoin to be unsuccessful in the near or distant future. Will Bitcoin prevail?

/ambiguity

Decentralization > hurdles

unless the crypto breaks bitcoin is safe

satoshi seemed to think that was decades away, by which time we'll be living in a new world ...

I'm still kicking myself for not getting in on it when it launched. I think it has good prospects for long term success.

That being said, it is still an abstract currency, even less backing it than fiat. I like what it's doing, I'm surprised by it's current valuation, and I think it has great potential. But it's far too early to tell. Makes for great poker, though.

All currencies have an abstract component.  In fact perhaps the majority of currency is abstract. 

Bitcoin is a revolution because it has utility based on an NxN matrix, where N is the number of people.  Other systems have an NxM matrix, where M is the number of notaries (read banks).  The number of notaries is minuscule vs the number of people.

So bitcoin can be true money, like cash.  And have a network effect 1000s or even millions of times bigger than legacy money.   

I agree. But I'm a geek. You still have to overcome the perception by rather a lot of rubes morons citizens suckers people that national Fiat is real money. Even Gold has SOME abstraction to it, though it physically exists.

Don't get me wrong. I'm in favor of this. I intend to promote it. I just think it's too early to call.

Yes I agree.  Currency gains trust through track record.  Fiat has been around decades to bitcoin's years.  There's nothing wrong with trusting fiat.  But fiat can be more easily gamed than crypto leading to a black swan where fiat requires a moratorium and bitcoin remains standing.

I see bitcoin as more robust than fiat, there doesnt seem to be any event that could derail it, other than the crypto being broken.

Your still an early adopter bitcoin is not mainstream or even 1% of global transactions yet.  If you believe bitcoin wont fail then the only way is up to £100K coins.  This recent stability is good but I predict another much bigger rally within six months of the next block reward halving.

True, it's still young. I'm kicking myself because I had intended to mine right out of the gate. I heard of bitcoin about a week after it's launch. I had a number of personal problems going on at the time and simply FORGOT about it until much later. Sheer stupidity. I figured it would take off to some extent (not as much as it has). Trying not to make the same mistake twice.

However, yes, I think it will go large. I'm betting that it will go large. But I still think it's too soon to call it a smashing success just yet.

the deciding factor will be if the new infrastructure that will be built to support growth can maintain the unique properties it started with that made it unique and interesting.

good/safe/secure/fast infrastructure would make all the difference, i agree.