Bitcoin Forum

I'll share a very interesting article i found in Medium a few weeks back, although the article itself is from Jan 2017 (which is what makes it more interesting).

"The fractal relationship between bitcoin’s first two bubbles and what they might tell us about a third"

https://medium.com/@coinscrum/the-fractal-relationship-between-bitcoins-first-two-bubbles-and-what-they-might-tell-us-about-a-7c8df5fb9613 (https://medium.com/@coinscrum/the-fractal-relationship-between-bitcoins-first-two-bubbles-and-what-they-might-tell-us-about-a-7c8df5fb9613)

The article essentially analyses Bitcoin's historic prices, trend, and provides insight into potentially being able plot its future value. Author analyses data with the help of Elliot Waves (more about that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics)).

But what drove me to post it here is the final chart in the article after all the analysis (posted below. I'm a newbie so i can't post images yet). Looks like the author predicted the spike ~Oct '17 accurately? What's your take? Will we hit that wave3 sooner?

https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*qSPcnHyJ5UMM-uWDdtnWAQ.png

I don't really believe in these predictions but this one seems interesting because it's really detailed.
I bookmarked it too see it later.
Would be positive for Bitcoins price if the price will really reach 30k in 2020, like the images says.

Think this is very intresting. Thx for sharing. I have to learn more about elliot waves.

Well, looking at charts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies with a timespan from january the 1st up until now the overall trend still seems very bullish, with a new ATH for BTC seemingly imminent on the short term. So I wouldn't be surprised if we indeed hit that Wave 3 before 2018 has even started. Total market cap of crypto would balloon into the trillions before the 2020's according to that graph. Interesting!

Interesting article. Some of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy as lots of the bots are programmed to calculate eliot wave supports and resistences.

It looks like his graph is predicting a peak in Jan 2018 with the rest of that year being a bear market before it makes another push up.

That seems somewhat convincing. He wasn't able to predict the dip because China's news was so sudden, but we've definitely been hitting a stride since then. The values are a little off, since it looks like we should be at around the $3000 mark right now if we go by the graph, but the trend is interesting to say the least.

There is an error in the graph: The downtrend he describes as "Wave 2" was much shorter.

Bitcoin hit the low (the dip under  $200 between the 2013 bubble and the 2017 bubble) already in January 2015 (see this chart (https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zczsg2015-01-01zeg2015-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv)), not in 2016 like in his graph.

I don't know if this invalidates his prediction - it could be the case that his predicted high will already be reached in 2017 - or it has already been reached. Wave 3 is often the longest of the bullish waves, never the shortest. So actually we may be in Wave 3 for almost three years (Wave 1 was 4 years long, if we follow his graph, although in 2009 and 2010 there were hardly any trades, Bitcoin was "play money" then).

@d5000, it looks like there's actually no error. The author does point out the Jan 2015 low and explains why he extends Wave 2 until June 2016:

"This time it took 13.5 months to reach what I’ve labelled as the Wave 2 low in Jan ’15 at $152.40 (or 2.7x the 5 months it took for Wave ii to make its low).
So let’s use the factor of 2.7 to look at future wavelengths (durations).
If Wave ii lasted 11 months, perhaps Wave 2 would last 30 months (11 x 2.7).
That would take us from the late Nov ’13 peak through to June ’16.
...
However, as we now start to flirt with the Wave 1 high (in USD terms at least — most other currencies have already exceeded it) we can begin to postulate that Wave 3 might have started in June ’16 on its merry march upwards."

So i take it for what it's worth, i think Wave 3 is accurately stated to have started June 2016.

His graph shows that Wave 1 lasted a bit over 3 years, Wave 2 a bit under 3 years, Wave 3 is predicted to last a bit under 3 years according to his chart, so that may put us at 10K by end of 2018 beginning of 2019.

They tell us that buy high won't matter in the long run. All the old bubbles top are now bargain price and there is no sign this time will be different.

@jbcoin:

You are right, the author justifies it this way. But then he's building an own theory that hasn't nothing to do with Elliott waves. Elliott waves are - as far as I know - clearly defined: they begin at a real local "price high" or a local "price low". And when a new impulse wave (in this case, the intermediate "wave i" of primary "Wave 3") begins, according to Elliott there is still pessimism in the market - in June 2016 there was already widespread optimism.

He would then have to reconsider the whole foundations of his "wave theory", for example, the relationships between the durations of Elliott waves.

But I agree somewhat with his price expectations, although I am not sure if Bitcoin ever will reach $30.000 (it's possible, but I think the "all time ATH" will be a bit lower).

Buy forget rinse and repeat! Buy forget rinse and repeat.
Store your keys securely.
Don't rely on exchanges too much.
Don't tell anybody you have bitcoin, tell them you have eth (always pretend something else).
Buy forget rinse and repeat.

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