Bitcoin Forum

What is estimated difficulty by the time KNCMiner ships?

That's not possible to answer that question. Or you need a time travelling machine.

Estimated... Because thousands of asics are going to be out there

Just bought a Jupiter.
Before ordered I tried everything to estimate the difficulty, possible delays, ASIC developments etc, but it's pretty much impossible. From 50 mill to 250 mill anything possible.
If it's around a 100 million I'll be happy.

How much of the network hashing power is gpu or cpu? Cause when asics are taking over, probably all cpu/gpu and even fpga miners will stop mining?

So when asics take over, how much of the "old" power will dissapear?

Difficulty has more than doubled over the past 3 months, I'd say it will  increase to close to at least 100 million the next three months.

How long ago was the 1st substantial shipment of ASICs? One might extrapolate from there.
However, if the hash rate multiplies a few times the next months, in the long run it won't matter if gpu miners stop, because their share will be negligible then.

So do you think it would be a good idea to preorder from KNCminer? Asics should be cheaper by then?

143,863,824.9   +/- 30%

Your lucky color is red, todays lucky numbers are 23,37,38,1,49,64 beware of an older lady in a green coat.

That will be difficulty? and whats that lucky stuff about lol

Fortune telling, thought I'd give you the full service. :D

Good.
Now tell us the next trend - up or down? :-)

Is it easier to get your hands on an ASIC or a time machine these days?

that's funny ;D

who knows if kncminer will even ship?

Primer ... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0390384/

They started with ASIC (well JTAG actually but its sort of relevant) and ended up with a time machine. Didn't end well though.

Sort of ... be careful what you wish for, and geeks and ethics don't mix. Anyway I liked the film.

[/OT mods delete if you like]

I totally agree with this - I base my estimations on pretty much the same parameters. Everything below 100mil. will be a gift.

Yes, eg LTCM... Looks like an interesting film. My question, while partly joking, was also semi-serious: has the market for ASICs changed at all, or are you still throwing money at companies hoping they give you something in many months time?

Not so much disappear as switch to mining Litecoin and any other altcoin that uses Scrypt. At least until(if) FPGA's can do the same thing to altcoin mining that ASIC's are doing to bitcoin mining.

Its improving. Avalon, ASICMINER, BFL all have working product and are shipping, to various degrees. IMHO of them all ASCIMINER are the easiest to get hold of (300MHash/sec USB Erupter), Avalon order/ship in batches and BFL, well what to say there. If you've an early order you should be fine, but newbies, its anybody's guess as to delivery. All are very expensive for the ROI, so you're taking a gamble on the difficulty not shooting up (which seems a poor bet to me). The best ROI seems to be with the chip orders (eg Klondike et al who will offer to build them into boards), take a look in the custom hardware threads. Again caveat emptor.

Hmm. The Asicminer usb would get me how many ltc per day?

Zilch, nada, not one ltc cent. It mines bitcoin not ltc. But you can always trade BTC for ltc if you want.

PS I fed 300MHash/sec into http://www.coinish.com/calc/ and it says 0.0097  BTC per day ($1.16)
Beware the difficulty increase, use the expert view to estimate your ROI.

Oh... I wanted to mine LTC because of its lower diff. Guess I will need to wait for a cheaper asic to come out near september.

I edited my original post to include the BTC return 0.0097 / day (at current difficulty). Seemed churlish not to.

It will be a while before ltc ASIC miners are available (if ever). There are people currently working on FPGA ltc miners, but its tricky and needs new board designs (current BTC  FPGA/ASIC miners won't work on ltc due to the memory requirements)

My best estimate for BTC difficulty is around 10 fold today within the next six months.

So, by about September 2013, it will be well over 20 million, but under 150 million.
By about November 2013, it will be just over 150 million to under 200 million.
By about June 2014, it will probably be 300 million to 600 million.

The rate of increase will be steady for the next few months, then the rate will decrease as many GPU miners migrate to the other alt currencies. Then the rate of increase will go back up again.

The increase in network hashrate is set to double based on the current volume of Avalon ASIC chip purchases, which will mean at least double the difficulty come August/September. However, the orders keep going up. By about mid-September, there will be another rush of ASIC based miners coming online.