Bitcoin Forum

Btc often falls much faster than it rises, though it obviously rises orders of magnitude over time, but the correction....20% ~ 30 % in 20 mins then a dead cat bounce.....

feels like earlier years where a 20% rise was normal in btc crypto land.

4~5 years .... 100K.

7~9 years .... $1M.

though $1M in 7~9 years will only have $500K buying power in today's $$$

I also wonder....how many BTC are going to be left for sale. I mean each time the market moves up, and drops....it must shake out a large proportion of people who are going to sell.

Then as it moves up to a new high it educates the remainder to not sell out if it drops.

Just Hold.

This is perhaps like a doubly or triple reinforcing process that is going to select perhaps geometrically for actors that do not sell, or less much lesser proportions of their holdings. This would indicate supply is going to really go down over time, further pushing up cost.

"corrections" are never big or epic or anything, they are always logical and properly sized.
what you see is usually a dump and a lot of FUD and you can't really generalize all of the dumps the say way. each of them are different and happen under very different circumstances.

for example this last one started as a simple correction. price went down from $49xx to $4400-$4500 which was less than a 10% correction and everything was perfectly fine, then the China crap started and price went down to $3800-$4000 and they kept attacking bitcoin. and the JP Morgan "bitcoin is fraud" was the last straw.

none of this 30%+ drop ever happened in 20 minutes though you are confusing bitcoin with a pump and dump altcoin. it took a lot of FUD and a couple of weeks to reach that big a dip!

https://www.coindesk.com/price-bitcoin-drops-400-btc-e-flash-crash/

though I admit it was a flash crash

was anyone else expecting the movements to reduce in magnitude as the price got higher? i know things are going slower in general, but it can still add or lose 10-20% in a day which is surprising to me.

and yep. the amount of sellers must be dwindling every time.

Mt. Gox.

Will it happen again?

Mt. Gox had 75% of trading volume I think.

So if it happens again it can’t be an exchange. Has to be something else which is centralized (http://archive.is/yPH9c). The other idea would be the failure of USDT, but I think perhaps dependence on it has waned since earlier in the year? The other idea would be a massive crackdown on ICOs, but I doubt this will come all at once.

Some things are repeating constantly and those who know how it works benefits from that every time.In some point whales will dump coins on market and price will go down,many will follow and panic sell will start.After that like always whales will buy again at lower price.

I agree that with time many coins will cross in hands of some holders who will be very careful and will not sell in panic.So less coins on market for sale,smaller production every four years caused by halving and fact that most of BTC will be mined in next 10 years with increase demand-it can only mean that the price goes to the moon.

If BTC continues the upward trend with the level of volatility we are used to then as you say, more and more people will learn to just hold until we get close to a stage where very few btc are actually traded relative to the total supply. This will only lead to more upward pressure until a price is reached where people are content to dump.

I personally doubt BTC will go much beyond USD 100k,- but that's only because I honestly can not fathom BTC reaching the estimated market cap of all the gold in the world. Then again I love being positively surprised.



I'd also say that Bitcoin is safe from exchange failure by now. The exchange ecosystem has become incredibly diversified. Besides, people withdrawing their coins in time for the BCH hardfork pretty much prove that all major exchanges are liquid and not running fractional.

ICO crackdowns affect ETH more than they affect BTC. There might be a dip, but I doubt it will have a serious impact on BTC valuations.

In my opinion USDT is crypto's achilles' heel right now. While its market cap is comparably small, it still has quite respectable trading volume and is permeating pretty much every part of the market.

I guess its a very long term investment if ever people would really wait that total supply. And we cant predict how other people would think and use bitcoin. Some may take advantage and others may just be traders.

I am pretty positive that will happen. And $100k of today's purchasing power.  We will also see a $1 million BTC. Maybe 2025 is a bit to early for that.

What we see is a sellers market: not much btc for sale.
Only $10mil/day is currently coming from miners and they are not selling everything, so, say, 5mil daily from miners.
Compare this with $200-600 mil btc typical daily trading volume.

Plus, there are at least 21 million millionaires in the world. All of them can't have even just ONE bitcoin.
If the aim is to allocate at least 1% to btc, then average millionaire with $5mil needs to allocate $50K, but as mentioned above, less than 1 btc for each is available, maybe much less.

So, it stands a reason that price almost HAS to go to at least $50K, maybe 2-3 times more ($100-150K). Everything above is uncertain.

BTC fell from $1200 to $200.. the corrections are super intense.. To say otherwise is just foolish.

The whole BTC ecosystem has matured a lot since then. Besides, many people would just
add to their holdings in the case of a correction.

The amount of outstanding bids on the exchanges has increased dramatically.
You only have to look at Bitfinex and Bitstamp to see more
than 100M $ in open bids. Besides, the exchanges today are much more professional, which
attracts serious investors that wouldn´t use a sketchy unprofessional exchange.

Therefore I don´t think corrections like that are really possible anymore.

ICO crackdown would hit on ETH mostly, I think the initial Ethereum ICO has been the last big one done in BTC. Not a systemical risk.

USDT did not waned at all, more biggest Market Cap since ever, talking 430,000,000 USD today.
The Tether fail would hit on Poloniex, Bittrex, Binance and HitBTC ... those are Altcoin exchange sites mostly. Well Bitfinex, too, of course. The last one could hurt the eastern bitcoin economy except the parts who rely on korean Wong instead of artificial Dollars.

lol inflation.

Let me rephrase my prior statement: "I personally doubt BTC will go much beyond USD 100k,- of today's purchasing power."

Given enough inflation USD 1 million BTC is of course a possibility. Heck, why not USD 10 million. I still prefer BTC growing due to its own merits and not due to the faults of fiat currencies though :)



The BTC ecosystem has matured a lot, that's true. But claiming that "many people would just add to their holdings" is easy to say during a bull run.



Outstanding bids mean nothing. Buy walls mean nothing. They're just thin air and disappear just as quick once the market turns.

Things look pretty good right now, but don't lure yourself into a "this time it's different" attitude.

slight correction: Tezos (raised 232 mil in July) was done in both bitcoin (about two thirds) and eth (the rest).
That said, i think your conclusion is correct regardless.

i don't think usdt's lack of real money is what'll ruin everything. it's the legal hack that holds it all together.

as soon as any state takes a closer look and can be bothered to figure out it's a giant banking diligence avoidance scheme then all of the exchanges that carry it will be forced to give it up.

I am not a professional analyzer of the Bitcoin's market or even a professional trader but what can I think in the future is that when Bitcoin reaches the market capitalization of $1 trillion then the price of it will be roughly around $60,000 then that's the time that more people will regret in not investing inside of it and after that an another milestone will be reach at $2 trillion then it will become $120,000 a piece and so on.

Everything is possible with Bitcoin and for now we all can't see a reason for its down fall, so this is a continuing story for the revolutionary digital currency and I can proudly say that I am lucky that I am with that.

Maybe you are being so optimistic, i dont really think that the price would be 100 thousand dollars, not even 1 million of course, just imagine how much will be the marketcap, it will be huge, uncalculable for anyone, more than trillions invest into only one coin.
I dont know, but i am being realistic, i can only see bitcoin going to $15 or $20 thousand dollars at max, no more.

So you think it can only possibly rise 3-4x from here.

The current price has been arrived at with maybe 10 million users, exchanges that are still a disgrace, no legitimate or regulated route for investor money either private or institutional, no derivatives, very little clear regulation, overwhelming scepticism and whole continents that still have nothing to do with it.

Are you borrowing your account?

Bitcoin is going much higher over the long-term, but there will likely be another Mt. Gox severity crash (perhaps not in November though, maybe early 2018), and I already provided a link to my thread which explains what that crisis could possibly be.


Discussion continued (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2259054.0).

Also this from James A. Donald, the first person who communicated with Satoshi on the mailing list (https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09959.html) where Bitcoin was announced:

Nice speculation. Though $1M mark is way too far and out of sight today. I do hope one day it reach $1M. Things are going smooth today so I'll expect some FUD will be thrown at bitcoin again.

I do not think anyone was expecting the price to stabilize when the market went up since the reasons for the instability are still there, one are the whales even if bitcoin has gotten more valuable whales still have the same amount of bitcoin and I could argue they are getting bigger so they can move the market as they please and the second is the untapped potential that bitcoin has, even at these prices more than 99% of the population do not have bitcoin yet and if that changes that is going to inflate the price.

I totally understood what you said and let me rephrase my answer to you. "I am pretty positive that will happen. And $100k of today's purchasing power."    Hm nothing to rephrase just I am sure Bitcoin will go over $100k of today's purchasing power. 

Hard to understand there was a misunderstanding :P

We will go to $7000 then back to $5000, this before the B2X fork. After that we maybe reach 10k by the end of the year.

Sidelined would be more healthy, but it is fucking boring. Rollercoasters are more exciting, and the more we go up, the higher will be the difference between ups and downs. Like when we reach 10k, floor be will be 7k, and when we reach 20k, floor will be 10k.

Can bitcoin go down, of course but to think it can go down that much that fast is to ignore the fact that a lot of things have happened since then, no exchange is as big to cause that fall so if you want something else to cause that fall the only thing that comes to me is mining, it is the only thing that is as centralized as it was Mt Gox back in the day, but how can the miners crash the price in that way? I do not know.