Bitcoin Forum

As a result of a heavy uptrend started a month ago, on the 13th of October Bitcoin produced an all-time high, reaching $5880. At the price of $5880 for a Bitcoin, there is a double resistance based on Fibonacci retracement levels. First Fibs resistance is 627.2% retracement level of the descending channel formed from 15th of June till 15th of July.

First Fibs resistance is 627.2% retracement level of the descending channel formed from 15th of June till 15th of July.

Second Fibs resistance is 627.2% retracement level of the corrective wave down after the channel has been broken on the 20th of July.

Today, yet again, Bitcoin approaching $5880, while if rejected for the second time, could prove that the uptrend has exhausted itself and perhaps its time for consolidation or a correction down. On the other hand, break above 6k would provide even more power for BTC/USD, but while resistance is holding selling pressure will remain high.

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thanks cryptopost, interesting read.
I won't be surprised if it goes below 5000.. at which point it is wise to get more. I will be waiting breathedly to see how Bitcoin Cash responds in case of such a drop.
Reminder: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. But I will definitely go out of my way to get a larger position if it falls that much. Bitcoin tends to always retrace higher than its previous low.

Thank you for your analysis. I am quite convinced that bitcoin can have a better price, but it has to take into account that there will be a price adjustment and correction after the rise. A lot of people can't afford a big drop unless they have a very good quality.

Fibonacci retracement levels sounds fancy, but I don't think it really has any effect on the price. Random Robert millionaire could be taking a dump and decide to buy a huge amount of Bitcoin, because one of his friends recommended it to him in a facebook message. I don't believe there is any way to predict the market in the short term. The volatility is too great and unpredictable.

Patterns that people see are just things they want to see. If you look at a bunch of random numbers you can eventually start imagining patterns starting to form.

I don't buy into Fibonacci either - at least not very a very long time until Bitcoin/crypto markets mature a little more. I still find it difficult to see how such a young, concentrated market that is barely global conforms to the same principles of trading as conventional instruments. And Random Roberts and Dimons have probably shown themselves in these drastic price movements.

Fibonacci on Bitcoin that regularly sees 50% swings either way in weeks and even days? Doubt.

I agree, there's too much going on - China, BTC in the news, double forks coming up - to make any meaningful analysis based on past trends.

Nice insights by you.Thanks for the analysis.Hope to see more like this from you.

Thanks for sharing vital information. This will be helpful in making the plans for future investment as we approaching the peak point where it was undecided whether to sell bitcoin or hold them and wait for 6K rise. Your fibro graphs predicts the reality of selling pressure so looks like we should sell at this point and once the bitcoin goes all the way down we should be buying more coins. This will be just perfect compounding reinvestment. Good analysis and hope to see the results as depicted here.

Well market moves according to certain rules, obviously these rules, like rejecting resistance might not always work but they provide the probability of a certain outcome.

In this case, a probability is in favor of a corrective move down, perhaps towards 4k, but in any case, I am not trying to prove I am right, pure statistics and game of probability.

I guess we all know BTC is up in the long term.

Thank you all for your feedback!

Actually I would wait a bit longer than that to buy back in if I were you.  Even if the decline seems to stabilize around the 4700-5K mark, I'd hold off before jumping back in with both feet.  I see this decline coming in 2 waves.  The first one over uncertainty just before & during the fork about what "could" happen... then a brief lul as people sit on the sidelines and watch... and then another due to further uncertainty over what effect it "did" have, which won't be known for some time.  But one thing both situations have in common is uncertainty, which isn't a good thing for confidence. 

It will be obvious when to buy back in, as new investors think "The Price Is Right".  It could happen in a matter of mere hours, even minutes, so stay glued to a chart.

Enough of this chart analyzation and technical analysis.

Wait after bitcoin fork before doing technical analysis. The pump has a reason and not the usual demand in the market. It will  just spoiled your hard thinking speculations and analysis.

Technical analysis might not be able to correctly foresee the effect of demand in different nations, the constant supply of additional bitcoins through mining etc. We all saw what China's actions against crypto exchanges did to the price. If this was reversed, then the price of Bitcoin will again take off.

This is one of the proofs that you should not buy bitcoins or any stock in case of a pump, whoever does this rookie mistake gets burned in dump and market correction.

Of course, you are welcome to follow my thread here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1966355.0

By the way, ETH/BTC shows double bottom... more here http://cryptopost.com/ethereum-vs-bitcoin-double-bottom-formation/

This market has made an impressive recovery already, even till such an extent, that we almost broke through the $6000 level -- that without China. Bitcoin clearly shows that it doesn't need China to experience growth. I rather see China be non operational when it comes to their exchanges, than having them back in the market. Seriously, if we look back at what China did to the market every time we were touching new highs, they 'stepped in' and blatantly crashed the price -- this definitely isn't coincidence anymore. Let them stay away for ever, this market is better off without these paranoid trouble makers.

Since Bitcoin reached the $5880 resistance, no new higher highs have been made. Today BTC/USD once again attempted to move higher but failed and currently moving down. Price continues to range between $5480 and $5880.

Strong technical resistance suggesting the price will go lower, perhaps towards strong psychological levels as $5000, $4000 or even $3000. But before that Bitcoin needs to go below $5480.


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Resistance to overtake 6K looks quite strong for now.
Lets not forget about the incoming hard fork, many believe the recent rise was partly due to the fork, with the belief that it will be a success, together with the possibility to get free coins (Bitcoin Gold).
Things should get clearer in 1 week from now. But I would not get too impatient to get past 6K, price is due to stabilize between 5K and 5k8 for a little while IMO ;).
All the best.