Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: bit777 on June 07, 2013, 06:05:42 PM



Title: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: bit777 on June 07, 2013, 06:05:42 PM
Past week bitcoin has been slowly dropping in price. What you guys think? Will it slowly drop back to 10-20$?


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: jag2k2 on June 07, 2013, 06:24:22 PM
Difficult to see.  Always in motion is the future.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 07, 2013, 06:30:37 PM
Past week bitcoin has been slowly dropping in price. What you guys think? Will it slowly drop back to 10-20$?


$10-$20? Lol, definitely  :D


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: mgio on June 07, 2013, 06:54:36 PM
If bitcoin drops to 10-20 it is pretty much dead.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: 600watt on June 07, 2013, 06:56:43 PM
If bitcoin drops to 10-20 it is pretty much dead.

so am i


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: auto2nr1 on June 07, 2013, 06:57:59 PM
If bitcoin drops to 10-20 it is pretty much dead.

so am i

LOL... Let's hope that does not happen.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 07, 2013, 07:02:53 PM
The hype is gone.

Exchanges are getting seized.

Feds are associating BitCoin with 'illegal activity' & 'terrorists', or at least putting this fear out in the media.

Feds are pressuring the BitCoin world.

The IRS is scaring people.

Scammers with trade are rampant as the transactions are irreversible and really nothing can be done.

etc...

etc...

I don't see how this is any good?


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: leopard2 on June 07, 2013, 07:03:05 PM
it went from 30 to 2, last time

so 266 to 20 is realistic

the only question is whether money flows into or out of bitcoin, at the moment it looks bad. Obviously newly mined BTC are sold and there are no new investors.

the good thing is, if it goes from 266 to 20, there is no reason why there shouldn't be a third wave which could take it to well over 1000


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 07, 2013, 07:05:27 PM
The hype is gone.

Exchanges are getting seized.

Feds are associating BitCoin with 'illegal activity' & 'terrorists', or at least putting this fear out in the media.

Feds are pressuring the BitCoin world.

The IRS is scaring people.

Scammers with trade are rampant as the transactions are irreversible and really nothing can be done.

etc...

etc...

I don't see how this is any good?

A natural thing about people:  When they're told NOT to do something, it makes them want to do it more.  Doesn't matter what the thing is.  This is directly related to "demand".


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: mgio on June 07, 2013, 07:12:13 PM
it went from 30 to 2, last time

so 266 to 20 is realistic

the only question is whether money flows into or out of bitcoin, at the moment it looks bad. Obviously newly mined BTC are sold and there are no new investors.

the good thing is, if it goes from 266 to 20, there is no reason why there shouldn't be a third wave which could take it to well over 1000

No. You just made this up because you believe there must be a "pattern".

You can use past history to predict the future.

There are reason for everything and when we can't see the reason we invent something.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Malawi on June 07, 2013, 07:55:05 PM
A natural thing about people:  When they're told NOT to do something, it makes them want to do it more.  Doesn't matter what the thing is.  This is directly related to "demand".

Prohibition anyone? :P


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 07, 2013, 07:58:39 PM
The up and coming regulations and possible new laws may that may appear at any time without notice make selling BitCoin now, if it returns a profit, a great idea.

Who knows, tomorrow we may see the 5 badge seal on CoinBase.com. In the future it will only be harder and harder to liquidate BitCoin. Without the ability to turn BitCoin to fiat currency it is basically useless at this point.

The $USD dollar is getting stronger.

Gold and Silver are tanking too. That bubble is over. Feel bad for the people who bought silver in the $40s range!

Silver is down another 5% just today alone: http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

Also, in an economic collapse Gold and Silver will not be the savior currency once thought to be so.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Crypt_Current on June 07, 2013, 08:21:51 PM
The up and coming regulations and possible new laws may that may appear at any time without notice make selling BitCoin now, if it returns a profit, a great idea.


Selling anything at any time, if it returns a profit, is probably a great idea   ??? ::)


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: binaryFate on June 07, 2013, 09:40:55 PM
The $USD dollar is getting stronger.

I have no expertise at all in economy, but I do wonder what leads you to such a statement?


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: niothor on June 07, 2013, 09:50:11 PM
The $USD dollar is getting stronger.

I have no expertise at all in economy, but I do wonder what leads you to such a statement?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-07/dollar-strengthens-as-u-s-jobs-data-back-fed-taper-speculation.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-07/dollar-strengthens-as-u-s-jobs-data-back-fed-taper-speculation.html)


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 07, 2013, 10:05:40 PM
What he said.

Right now cash is king. Gold and Silver are tanking!

Yes, sometimes it is better to hang on to that paper. Now is a good time to move your assets into $USD, then re-buy commodities later.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BrightAnarchist on June 07, 2013, 10:15:35 PM
What he said.

Right now cash is king. Gold and Silver are tanking!

Yes, sometimes it is better to hang on to that paper. Now is a good time to move your assets into $USD, then re-buy commodities later.

Agreed.

Deflation confuses most everyone... Glad you're one of the few who gets it


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: ArticMine on June 07, 2013, 11:15:56 PM
If bitcoin drops to 10-20 it is pretty much dead.

No it is not far from it. Let us not forget that Bitcoin "recovered" from 2 USD to 266 USD after the last bear market.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 07, 2013, 11:27:40 PM
Quote
No it is not far from it.

Unlike other commodities, there is no stopping panic selling if it sets in. Emotions and fear take over and control the selling, not rational  judgements. I strongly believe that if prices went sub $100 today, or if they do in the next few days, the 'panic' of the quickly falling prices would drive prices sub $40.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_selling

History likes to repeat itself, and unlike other investments, there are no 'stops' with BitCoin. Unlike with gold or silver, houses, etc if BitCoin crashes your left with literally nothing.


Now with that said, BUY BUY BUY! This drives prices in the OTHER direction by doing the exact OPPOSITE! If the price is to increase in the next few days it will accelerate the rise! There needs to be another quick, rapid, hyped up jump in prices or I am fearing BitCoin might be lingering towards death (rapid decline in value).


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 08, 2013, 12:28:01 AM
Yeah guys, bitcoin is totally doomed :trlf:


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 08, 2013, 12:30:59 AM
Quote
Yeah guys, bitcoin is totally doomed :trlf:

What I am saying it it could be, isn't yet, but could be.

Exchanges need to set stop limits.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: bitcoinanon on June 08, 2013, 12:31:55 AM
Quote
No it is not far from it.

Unlike other commodities, there is no stopping panic selling if it sets in. Emotions and fear take over and control the selling, not rational  judgements. I strongly believe that if prices went sub $100 today, or if they do in the next few days, the 'panic' of the quickly falling prices would drive prices sub $40.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_selling

History likes to repeat itself, and unlike other investments, there are no 'stops' with BitCoin. Unlike with gold or silver, houses, etc if BitCoin crashes your left with literally nothing.


Now with that said, BUY BUY BUY! This drives prices in the OTHER direction by doing the exact OPPOSITE! If the price is to increase in the next few days it will accelerate the rise! There needs to be another quick, rapid, hyped up jump in prices or I am fearing BitCoin might be lingering towards death (rapid decline in value).

Its all speculation. The price has been below $100 since it reached $266. And we are seeing an increase of vendors and major retailers accepting BTC not to mention there have been tens of thousands of BTC used to purchase ASIC chips. Don't you think there would be a fall in the value of BTC when all these companies liquidate their BTC into USD to cover their initial costs? I don't understand the need to freak out and suggest wild claims such as this. When the market was way more volatile just a few months ago. this seems like disinformation to trick and or scare newbies.
I hold the market will remain strong.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 08, 2013, 12:33:03 AM
Quote
this seems like disinformation to trick and or scare newbies.

Not trying to 'scare' anyone by throwing out there a possibility, just my opinion.

Quote
I don't understand the need to freak out and suggest wild claims such as this.

I am just throwing out another possible outcome rather than a fantasy projected ending.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 08, 2013, 12:36:39 AM
The hard part about hedges is, obviously, they don't work when either (1) what you're hedging against is getting stronger, and/or (2) they are being manipulated (in the case of naked PM shorts creating artificial supply.) In the case of bitcoin, neither is really happening - it's just bitcoin being bitcoin. Behaving like a penny stock at $100+. What else is new?

To make it even MORE difficult, is the fact that most bitcoiners believe the USD is headed for extinction i.e. it will continue to inflate and will eventually hit hyperinflation. It will... eventually. And when it does - yes, bitcoin and other cryptocoins, along with gold and silver, will rise in value significantly. The problem is, USD is still the world's reserve currency, and right now it appears that the JPY and the Euro, and a bunch of others (argentina, venezuela, etc) are going to significantly inflate before the USD does. There is MASSIVE demand for USD in argentina and venezuela! And when Abe's policies continue to fail, Japanese people aren't going to buy bitcoin they're going to buy USD. Any "global inflationary crisis" will actually have the USD deflating, because of massive global demand of the USD as a "hedge" against the various fiat currencies that end up failling first. Now, the nature of the hyper__flationary beast is that it can't be tamed once started. So either way, we'll see backwardation or sky-high exchange rates, in the end. But as has been learned many times by people who have been involved in Bitcoin for years... i.e. not "NewBitcoinGuy" or whatever... what happens day-to-day or month-to-month is not so important as what happens over a year, 2 years, or a decade.

Ok, commence your predictions of $20 price tags every time you see a $5 drop in  BTC price, despite long-term trends with no fundamental change (bitcoin is being attacked, has always been attacked, and will always be attacked, it is antifragile) ::)

BTW, bad news must always be pitted against good news in order to properly gauge sentiment. So, to the idiot who posted the bad news list on the previous page, I expect you to follow up with a list of all the recent business adoptions, charity adoptions, press mentions, VC investments, VIP plugs, startups, new project developments, etc. Pit one against the other and it's not all doom-and-gloom - just boringly neutral.





Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: zackclark70 on June 08, 2013, 12:44:24 AM
i think you will find that some of the reason bitcoin price is droping is alt coins are easy to mine and more profitable


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 08, 2013, 01:24:43 AM
Quote
alt coins are easy to mine and more profitable

It is all about making a quick buck.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 02:15:58 AM
Quote
alt coins are easy to mine and more profitable

It is all about making a quick buck.

That's why bitcoin is 100$ now and not 20.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitcoinAshley on June 08, 2013, 02:24:36 AM
i think you will find that some of the reason bitcoin price is droping is alt coins are easy to mine and more profitable


Altcoins are dropping too, against BTC and USD. Even the only worthwhile ones, LTC and NMC, have tanked.

Altcoins have been easier to mine and more profitable for quite a while now, IIRC.

Bitcoin price is dropping because investors aren't very confident; a few huge dumps in low volume is all it took to get people scared, and we've never spent any considerable length of time testing $100 or even anything between $50 and where we are now.

Fasten your seatbelts, don't get caught in any bulltraps or beartraps!  8)


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Random Bit on June 08, 2013, 04:57:22 AM
i think you will find that some of the reason bitcoin price is droping is alt coins are easy to mine and more profitable


Altcoins are dropping too, against BTC and USD. Even the only worthwhile ones, LTC and NMC, have tanked.

Altcoins have been easier to mine and more profitable for quite a while now, IIRC.

Bitcoin price is dropping because investors aren't very confident; a few huge dumps in low volume is all it took to get people scared, and we've never spent any considerable length of time testing $100 or even anything between $50 and where we are now.

Fasten your seatbelts, don't get caught in any bulltraps or beartraps!  8)

Currently ALT coins are only good to trade against Bitcoin.  Take Bitcoin away there is no reason to have the ALT coins since they can't stand on their own, there is no solid market to support them.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Maged on June 08, 2013, 06:32:29 AM
If bitcoin drops to 10-20 it is pretty much dead.
Then that could very well be our target price. If you aren't feeling as miserable as you felt in 2011, we haven't yet bottomed. I speculated that this correction could take about 1 year a few days after the bubble popped.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: johnyj on June 08, 2013, 09:36:44 AM
Everywhere, people are talking about that FED's going to tighten, so there will be less printed money playing bitcoin/gold/silver speculation. Or you can say, the previous strong price appreciation of bitcoin is caused by excessive free money provided by FED's QE infinite. When free money is not available anymore, it is a real test for the true demand for bitcoin


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: Salivan on June 08, 2013, 11:32:52 AM
Only a very  decisive action from  government  could bring bitcoin to knees.
Otherwise is the best  investment ever. Quote me on this.
Those  drops are completely irrelevant I laugh at them.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BrightAnarchist on June 08, 2013, 01:59:57 PM
Only a very  decisive action from  government  could bring bitcoin to knees.
Otherwise is the best  investment ever. Quote me on this.
Those  drops are completely irrelevant I laugh at them.

The problem is this kind of sentiment.

The last bitcoin magazine had an article called "the rise and rise of bitcoin"... They don't realize it, but that means only one thing: bear market

It's going to take a while but the only way this bear can bottom is when people completely stop viewing bitcoin as an investment


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: WishIStartedSooner on June 08, 2013, 06:36:48 PM
The hard part about hedges is, obviously, they don't work when either (1) what you're hedging against is getting stronger, and/or (2) they are being manipulated (in the case of naked PM shorts creating artificial supply.) In the case of bitcoin, neither is really happening - it's just bitcoin being bitcoin. Behaving like a penny stock at $100+. What else is new?

To make it even MORE difficult, is the fact that most bitcoiners believe the USD is headed for extinction i.e. it will continue to inflate and will eventually hit hyperinflation. It will... eventually. And when it does - yes, bitcoin and other cryptocoins, along with gold and silver, will rise in value significantly. The problem is, USD is still the world's reserve currency, and right now it appears that the JPY and the Euro, and a bunch of others (argentina, venezuela, etc) are going to significantly inflate before the USD does. There is MASSIVE demand for USD in argentina and venezuela! And when Abe's policies continue to fail, Japanese people aren't going to buy bitcoin they're going to buy USD. Any "global inflationary crisis" will actually have the USD deflating, because of massive global demand of the USD as a "hedge" against the various fiat currencies that end up failling first. Now, the nature of the hyper__flationary beast is that it can't be tamed once started. So either way, we'll see backwardation or sky-high exchange rates, in the end. But as has been learned many times by people who have been involved in Bitcoin for years... i.e. not "NewBitcoinGuy" or whatever... what happens day-to-day or month-to-month is not so important as what happens over a year, 2 years, or a decade.

Ok, commence your predictions of $20 price tags every time you see a $5 drop in  BTC price, despite long-term trends with no fundamental change (bitcoin is being attacked, has always been attacked, and will always be attacked, it is antifragile) ::)

BTW, bad news must always be pitted against good news in order to properly gauge sentiment. So, to the idiot who posted the bad news list on the previous page, I expect you to follow up with a list of all the recent business adoptions, charity adoptions, press mentions, VC investments, VIP plugs, startups, new project developments, etc. Pit one against the other and it's not all doom-and-gloom - just boringly neutral.





BitcoinAshley, every post I've ever read from you is incredibly smart and usually teaches me something.

I wish there was a way I could have you a baby, even though I'm a guy.


Title: Re: bitcoin price drop?
Post by: BitCoinNewGuy on June 09, 2013, 03:38:51 PM
Quote
Unlike other commodities, there is no stopping panic selling if it sets in. Emotions and fear take over and control the selling, not rational  judgements. I strongly believe that if prices went sub $100 today, or if they do in the next few days, the 'panic' of the quickly falling prices would drive prices sub $40.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_selling

History likes to repeat itself, and unlike other investments, there are no 'stops' with BitCoin. Unlike with gold or silver, houses, etc if BitCoin crashes your left with literally nothing.

Looks like my statement has been true thus far, even though I hope it doesn't come completely true.